• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제43권4호
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• pp.59-66
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• 2020

In this study, we consider the problem of forecasting the number of inbound foreigners visiting Korea. Forecasting tourism demand is an essential decision to plan related facilities and staffs, thus many studies have been carried out, mainly focusing on the number of inbound or outbound tourists. In order to forecast tourism demand, we use a seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model, as well as a SARIMAX model which additionally comprises an exogenous variable affecting the dependent variable, i.e., tourism demand. For constructing the forecasting model, we use a search procedure that can be used to determine the values of the orders of the SARIMA and SARIMAX. For the exogenous variable, we introduce factors that could cause the tourism demand reduction, such as the 9/11 attack, the SARS and MERS epidemic, and the deployment of THAAD. In this study, we propose a procedure, called Measuring Impact on Demand (MID), where the impact of each factor on tourism demand is measured and the value of the exogenous variable corresponding to the factor is determined based on the measurement. To show the performance of the proposed forecasting method, an empirical analysis was conducted where the monthly number of foreign visitors in 2019 were forecasted. It was shown that the proposed method can find more accurate forecasts than other benchmarks in terms of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

• 공원문화
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• 통권26호
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• pp.26-32
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• 1984

There have been few researches on the factors affecting forest recreation demand and demand for and value of forest recreation in Korea. This study has three main objectives as follows; First, to introduce the nature of recreation demand, the factors affecting forest recreation demand, and the methods of measuring demand for and benefits from forest recreation by reviewing related literatures. Secondly, to investigate the visitors' characteristics, patterns of recreation activities, and their attitudes for the recreation environments at the Deogyu National Park through interviewing them with the questionaire. Thirdly, to estimate the demand for and benefits of forest recreation at the National Park by Travel Cost Method. The survey was dealt by three trained interviewers at the enterance of the park for 5 days from September 26 to October 10, 1982. The 430 respondents were sampled randomly among 9,391 visitors with 4.6% of sampling rate. As the results, the study revealed that most of visitors to Deogyu National Park were from urban areas and belonged to the intermediate-upper income classes, and that most of them traveled more than 250 km or 4 hours to the site from their origins. And more respondents answered that the recreation environments of the cite were more or less better than other recreation areas. From the date of travel distances and participation rates of 13 cities or counties, the demand schedule of forest recreation at the National Park was established. The estimated equation of total experience demand curve is; Log $VR_i$ 2.6353 – 1.021 Log $D_i$ $R^2=0.9451$ where, $VR_i$ $(%\times1000)$ = Participation rate of the ith origin $D_i$ (km) = Travel distance from the ith origin From the total experience demand curve, the demand curve of recreation resources was built by adding travel cost in distance (km). The regression equation of the recreation resources at the Nation park is; Log V = 4.0304 – 0.8167 Log D $R^2=0.9060$ From the demand schedule of recreation resources, the recreational bendfits of Deogyu National Park was estimated. The estimated bendfits to a visitor from the forest is equivalent to the travel cost of 2,372 km. The study also found out that the demand for recreation resources was less elastic than the demand for the total recreation experience at the Deogyu National Park.

• 한국조경학회지
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.12-22
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• 1991

The purpose of this study is to identify demand and methods of projection, including to prove the variables affecting the fluctuation of visitors and to analyze the relationship between these variables in National Park. Statistical analysis method (Multiple Linear Regression Analysis, ANOVA, and Model diagnostics) was carried out by computer program SAS/pc. 13 variables (1. Total Population, 2. Per Capita PDI, 3. Employment Ratio of S.O.C. & others, 4. NO. of Passenger Car, 5. Length of Roads, 6. Leisure Expenditure of Farm Household, 7. Leisure Expenditure of Urban Household, 8. Price Index, 9. NO. of Bus, 10. Exchange on Dollars, 11. Export, 12. Import, and 13. Visitors in National Park) had been used to this study. The scope of time period is during the last 17 years (1970-1986). The results were as follows; 1) Participation depends only on the specific characteristics of the economic factors (Price Index and Leisure Expenditure of Urban Household). These factors are the importance factors directly affecting the participation of visitors. The statistical Model for projecting the visitors in National Parks is the function of "Visitors in National Parks (thousand)=14915+0.210311*Leisure Expenditure of Urband Household (won)-157.835619*Price Index(1985=100)" 2) The external factors affecting the participation depends upon the interelated features of availability and accessibility (NO. of Passenger Car, Length of Roads, and NO. of Bus) of recreation resources or sites, and the economic factors (Per Capita PDI, Export, and Import). These factors are the factors indirectly affecting the participation of visitors. 3) The participation depends on the specific characteristics of demographic factors (Total Population and Employment Ratio of S.O.C. & others). These factors are the factors indirectly affecting the participation of visitors. 4) The unexpected fluctuation of yearly visitors depends on oil shock or inflation (1971, 1973-1974, 1979-1980), promulgation of national emergency decrees (1971-1972, 1974-1975, 1979-1980), and national events (assassination of president Park's wife, Madame Yuk in 1974 and president Park I 1979).

• 급식외식위생학회지
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.10-21
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• 2021

According to the analysis which investigated visitors of HACCP system certified stores and non-visitors of such stores on the awareness of HACCP for livestock products, 77.1% (246 pollees) heard of HACCP certification for livestock products, 67.1% (214 pollees) had seen the HACCP certification mark for livestock products, 62.1% (198 pollees) heard of HACCP certification for livestock products in meet retail shops, and 51.4% (164 pollees) were not aware of the recent TV · subway advertisements regarding HACCP certification for livestock products. For every questionnaire on the awareness of HACCP for livestock products, visitors of HACCP system certified stores showed significantly higher response rate than nonvisitors (p<0.01, p<0.001). The majority of pollees (74.9%, 239 pollees) replied that the word HACCP for livestock products brings up the image of safe livestock products, and 37.0% answered that the term HACCP defines 'Hazard analysis critical control point'. Regarding the questions on HACCP system for livestock products, 38.6% showed that they were most curious in terms of the benefits of such system. The demand analysis on HACCP for livestock products for consumer was also conducted. In the analysis, the demand for support of the policy (4.06 points) was higher than demand for education · public promotion of HACCP (4.03 points) and demand for related application (3.90 points).

• 한국조경학회지
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• 제22권4호
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• pp.161-176
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• 1995

Leisure motivation is an important concept in the study of leisure behavior. The purpose of this study was to examine visitors' motivations for hot spring resorts in Korea. The data were collected by questionnaires survey in three hot spring resorts in 1994:Suanbo, Paikam, and Chuksan. The findings of this study are summarized as follows: The eight motivation factors extracted by factor analysis such as; 1)"intellectual needs", 2)'escaping everyday life', 3)'closing nature', 4)'recognition or status', 5)'interaction with others', 6)'health', 7)'family vacation', 8)'hot spring bathing'. The three resorts showed significant deferences in the motivation of visitors. Visitors of Suanbo have high motivation for 'intellectual needs', 'interaction with others', and 'thealth', and visitors of Chuksan for 'closing nature', 'family vacation', and 'hot spring bathing'. This study has proved first, psychological(pushing) factors are more important than pulling factors of resorts, second, in pulling factors, natural sceneries were more important than medicinal properties of the hot springs. And this study found several important implications for predicting visitors' demand in hot spring resorts.

• 농촌계획
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.97-106
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• 2016

The study attempts to estimate the recreational benefits of Chilgap multi-purpose reservoir using the on-site survey sample of 130 visitors. The individual travel cost method is used for measuring the recreational benefits of Chilgap multi-purpose reservoir and a zero-truncated negative binomial model is used to elicit the travel demand function. The price elasticities of visit demand are ranged from 0.29 to 0.39. Recreational benefits are ranged from 119 to 156 thousand won per visit and are ranged from 292 to 383 thousand won per annual. When the number of annual visitors to Chilgap reservoir is appled, then the recreational benefits are ranged from 2.7 to 3.6 billion won. This study could contribute to the advancement of post-construction evaluation in the public construction field similar to Chilgap reservoir.

• 동굴
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• 제90호
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• pp.63-68
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• 2009

동굴의 유형 분류를 학술적 근거에 두지 않고 동굴 내부의 다양한 특성 즉, 길이, 지형지물의 종류, 성인, 광장유무를 변수로 이용하였다. 분석 기법으로는 군집분석을 이용하였다. 분석 결과 5개의 유형으로 분류되었으며, 이러한 결과는 관람객의 요구에 따른 다양한 분류가 가능하다는 결과를 말해준다.

• 경영과정보연구
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• 제34권1호
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• pp.179-190
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• 2015

본 연구는 지방자치단체에서는 관광 상품 판매를 통해 얻는 수익이 지역 주민들에게 환원될 수 있도록 관광 상품 중의하나인 자연환경을 상품화하고 있다(한영주, 이무용, 2001). 부산 송도해수욕장의 경우 1980년대 시설낙후로 철거된 케이블카를 복원하는 사업이 26년 만에 가시화되고 있으며, 지역의 관광 삼품으로 그 가치가 크며 이에 대한 수요예측이 필요하다고 할 수 있다. 연구결과 부산광역시만을 대상으로 할 경우 대략 550,684명에서 1,514,416명의 수요예측 범위를 가질 것으로 예상되며, 송도해수욕장의 특성을 반영한 부산, 울산, 경남으로 지역을 확장할 경우 1,013,740명에서 2,854,340명의 수요예측결과를 도출하였다. 본 연구는 수요예측이 가지는 한계점을 보완하고자 방문객 수요예측 시 방문의사율에 실제로 실현 가능한 예측치인 실현율(그루버지수, 자기확신 지수)을 통해서 송도해상케이블카 복원사업 이용객 추정을 하고 이에 대한 수요예측을 통해 사업의 진행에 있어 중요한 근거로 활용될 것이며, 향후 지속적인 관리를 위한 초기자료로서 그 역할을 할 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국산림과학회지
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• 제99권1호
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• pp.36-46
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• 2010

본 연구는 서울 및 수도권 거주자를 중심으로 산림방문수요를 분석하여 산림방문수요증진을 위한 정책적 시사점 도출을 목적으로 수행되었다. 산림선택속성의 요인분석을 통하여 도출된 총 6개의 요인, 인구통계적 특성, 산림 이용과 관련된 일반적 사항 등의 독립변수를 이용하여 종속변수인 지난 1년간 산림 방문횟수에 대한 결정요인을 파악하였다. 분석결과, 산림방문수요에 정(正)의 영향을 미치는 변수는 산림선택속성 중에서 관광자원요인, 인구통계적 변수들 중에서는 남성, 서울 거주자일수록, 산림이용과 관련된 변수들 중에서는 대중교통을 이용하는 경우인 것으로 나타났다. 반면, 산림방문수요에 부(負)의 영향을 미치는 변수는 산림선택속성요인 중에서 산림외적요인, 인구통계적 특성 중 화이트컬러 직업군 종사자, 대졸이상 학력자인 경우로 나타났다. 이러한 결과를 바탕으로 산림방문 수요 확대를 위한 시사점을 도출하였다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제22권6호
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• pp.679-686
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• 2013

Based on the survey of East Lake Park, South Lake Park and Tian Waicun in Tai'an by questionnaire survey, on-the-spot investigation and in-depth interview, the paper analyzes the tendencies of visitors to the animal elements and animal landscape in landscape architecture from three terms: primary attributes, the cognition of animal elements and animal elements landscape preferences. We have drawn several conclusions: the landscapes of animal elements are in urgent demand by the public ; The animal elements having lovely image, auspicious meaning and local characteristics are the most popular application types of animal elements landscapes ; The most favorite types of animals and animal elements are: doves, cranes monkeys, pandas, butterflies, dragonflies, fold fish, dolphins, dragons and cartoon animals ; The popular landscaping techniques of animal elements are the methods of combining with plants, buildings and garden ornaments.