• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.59-66
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• 2020

In this study, we consider the problem of forecasting the number of inbound foreigners visiting Korea. Forecasting tourism demand is an essential decision to plan related facilities and staffs, thus many studies have been carried out, mainly focusing on the number of inbound or outbound tourists. In order to forecast tourism demand, we use a seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model, as well as a SARIMAX model which additionally comprises an exogenous variable affecting the dependent variable, i.e., tourism demand. For constructing the forecasting model, we use a search procedure that can be used to determine the values of the orders of the SARIMA and SARIMAX. For the exogenous variable, we introduce factors that could cause the tourism demand reduction, such as the 9/11 attack, the SARS and MERS epidemic, and the deployment of THAAD. In this study, we propose a procedure, called Measuring Impact on Demand (MID), where the impact of each factor on tourism demand is measured and the value of the exogenous variable corresponding to the factor is determined based on the measurement. To show the performance of the proposed forecasting method, an empirical analysis was conducted where the monthly number of foreign visitors in 2019 were forecasted. It was shown that the proposed method can find more accurate forecasts than other benchmarks in terms of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

• 공원문화
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• s.26
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• pp.26-32
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• 1984

There have been few researches on the factors affecting forest recreation demand and demand for and value of forest recreation in Korea. This study has three main objectives as follows; First, to introduce the nature of recreation demand, the factors affecting forest recreation demand, and the methods of measuring demand for and benefits from forest recreation by reviewing related literatures. Secondly, to investigate the visitors' characteristics, patterns of recreation activities, and their attitudes for the recreation environments at the Deogyu National Park through interviewing them with the questionaire. Thirdly, to estimate the demand for and benefits of forest recreation at the National Park by Travel Cost Method. The survey was dealt by three trained interviewers at the enterance of the park for 5 days from September 26 to October 10, 1982. The 430 respondents were sampled randomly among 9,391 visitors with 4.6% of sampling rate. As the results, the study revealed that most of visitors to Deogyu National Park were from urban areas and belonged to the intermediate-upper income classes, and that most of them traveled more than 250 km or 4 hours to the site from their origins. And more respondents answered that the recreation environments of the cite were more or less better than other recreation areas. From the date of travel distances and participation rates of 13 cities or counties, the demand schedule of forest recreation at the National Park was established. The estimated equation of total experience demand curve is; Log $VR_i$ 2.6353 – 1.021 Log $D_i$ $R^2=0.9451$ where, $VR_i$ $(%\times1000)$ = Participation rate of the ith origin $D_i$ (km) = Travel distance from the ith origin From the total experience demand curve, the demand curve of recreation resources was built by adding travel cost in distance (km). The regression equation of the recreation resources at the Nation park is; Log V = 4.0304 – 0.8167 Log D $R^2=0.9060$ From the demand schedule of recreation resources, the recreational bendfits of Deogyu National Park was estimated. The estimated bendfits to a visitor from the forest is equivalent to the travel cost of 2,372 km. The study also found out that the demand for recreation resources was less elastic than the demand for the total recreation experience at the Deogyu National Park.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.12-22
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• 1991

The purpose of this study is to identify demand and methods of projection, including to prove the variables affecting the fluctuation of visitors and to analyze the relationship between these variables in National Park. Statistical analysis method (Multiple Linear Regression Analysis, ANOVA, and Model diagnostics) was carried out by computer program SAS/pc. 13 variables (1. Total Population, 2. Per Capita PDI, 3. Employment Ratio of S.O.C. & others, 4. NO. of Passenger Car, 5. Length of Roads, 6. Leisure Expenditure of Farm Household, 7. Leisure Expenditure of Urban Household, 8. Price Index, 9. NO. of Bus, 10. Exchange on Dollars, 11. Export, 12. Import, and 13. Visitors in National Park) had been used to this study. The scope of time period is during the last 17 years (1970-1986). The results were as follows; 1) Participation depends only on the specific characteristics of the economic factors (Price Index and Leisure Expenditure of Urban Household). These factors are the importance factors directly affecting the participation of visitors. The statistical Model for projecting the visitors in National Parks is the function of "Visitors in National Parks (thousand)=14915+0.210311*Leisure Expenditure of Urband Household (won)-157.835619*Price Index(1985=100)" 2) The external factors affecting the participation depends upon the interelated features of availability and accessibility (NO. of Passenger Car, Length of Roads, and NO. of Bus) of recreation resources or sites, and the economic factors (Per Capita PDI, Export, and Import). These factors are the factors indirectly affecting the participation of visitors. 3) The participation depends on the specific characteristics of demographic factors (Total Population and Employment Ratio of S.O.C. & others). These factors are the factors indirectly affecting the participation of visitors. 4) The unexpected fluctuation of yearly visitors depends on oil shock or inflation (1971, 1973-1974, 1979-1980), promulgation of national emergency decrees (1971-1972, 1974-1975, 1979-1980), and national events (assassination of president Park's wife, Madame Yuk in 1974 and president Park I 1979).

• Journal of the FoodService Safety
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.10-21
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• 2021

According to the analysis which investigated visitors of HACCP system certified stores and non-visitors of such stores on the awareness of HACCP for livestock products, 77.1% (246 pollees) heard of HACCP certification for livestock products, 67.1% (214 pollees) had seen the HACCP certification mark for livestock products, 62.1% (198 pollees) heard of HACCP certification for livestock products in meet retail shops, and 51.4% (164 pollees) were not aware of the recent TV · subway advertisements regarding HACCP certification for livestock products. For every questionnaire on the awareness of HACCP for livestock products, visitors of HACCP system certified stores showed significantly higher response rate than nonvisitors (p<0.01, p<0.001). The majority of pollees (74.9%, 239 pollees) replied that the word HACCP for livestock products brings up the image of safe livestock products, and 37.0% answered that the term HACCP defines 'Hazard analysis critical control point'. Regarding the questions on HACCP system for livestock products, 38.6% showed that they were most curious in terms of the benefits of such system. The demand analysis on HACCP for livestock products for consumer was also conducted. In the analysis, the demand for support of the policy (4.06 points) was higher than demand for education · public promotion of HACCP (4.03 points) and demand for related application (3.90 points).

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.161-176
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• 1995

Leisure motivation is an important concept in the study of leisure behavior. The purpose of this study was to examine visitors' motivations for hot spring resorts in Korea. The data were collected by questionnaires survey in three hot spring resorts in 1994:Suanbo, Paikam, and Chuksan. The findings of this study are summarized as follows: The eight motivation factors extracted by factor analysis such as; 1)"intellectual needs", 2)'escaping everyday life', 3)'closing nature', 4)'recognition or status', 5)'interaction with others', 6)'health', 7)'family vacation', 8)'hot spring bathing'. The three resorts showed significant deferences in the motivation of visitors. Visitors of Suanbo have high motivation for 'intellectual needs', 'interaction with others', and 'thealth', and visitors of Chuksan for 'closing nature', 'family vacation', and 'hot spring bathing'. This study has proved first, psychological(pushing) factors are more important than pulling factors of resorts, second, in pulling factors, natural sceneries were more important than medicinal properties of the hot springs. And this study found several important implications for predicting visitors' demand in hot spring resorts.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.97-106
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• 2016

The study attempts to estimate the recreational benefits of Chilgap multi-purpose reservoir using the on-site survey sample of 130 visitors. The individual travel cost method is used for measuring the recreational benefits of Chilgap multi-purpose reservoir and a zero-truncated negative binomial model is used to elicit the travel demand function. The price elasticities of visit demand are ranged from 0.29 to 0.39. Recreational benefits are ranged from 119 to 156 thousand won per visit and are ranged from 292 to 383 thousand won per annual. When the number of annual visitors to Chilgap reservoir is appled, then the recreational benefits are ranged from 2.7 to 3.6 billion won. This study could contribute to the advancement of post-construction evaluation in the public construction field similar to Chilgap reservoir.

• Journal of the Speleological Society of Korea
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• no.90
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• pp.63-68
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• 2009

Classified by the characteristics of caves, without academic basis, was used by multiple variables of internal characteristics of caves, such as; the length, the type of features, the genesis, and the square. It is used by cluster analysis as an analysis technique. It is classified in 5 different types from the results of the analysis, and the results say that the diverse classification of visitors' demand is possible.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.179-190
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• 2015

Local governments are commercializing natural environment, one of tourist commodities, to ensure that the proceeds from sale of tourist commodities are returned to local residents(Han Yeong-joo, Lee Moo-yong, 2001). In Songdo beach, Busan, cable car dismantled in 1980s due to the run-down state of the facility is poised for restoration in 26 years and can be said to be of great value as tourist commodity of the region and necessitates the demand forecast. To overcome limitations of demand forecast in existing studies, the analysis was made based on feasibility rate(Gruber index, self-confidence index), the realizable predictive value, for the willingness-to-visit rate when forecasting the demand of visitors. The results of demand forecast suggested that number of visitors would range from approximately 550,684 persons to 1,514,416 persons when the target region for demand forecast was confined to Busan Metropolitan City, and was in the range between 1,013,740 persons and 2,854,340 persons when the target region was expanded to cover Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam. Based on the results of this study, estimation of visitors and demand forecast for Songdo offshore cable car restoration which reflect characteristics of Songdo beach of Busan would provide important basis for proceeding with tourism industry development project.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.99 no.1
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• pp.36-46
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• 2010

The purpose of this research was to derive political suggestion to increase the demand for forest visit by analyzing the demand of forest visitors, focusing on the residents of Seoul and capital areas. The determinants of demand, which is the number of forest visit in a year, were analyzed by independent variables; six factors from factor analysis on selective attributes, demographic characteristics, and other variables related with the general matters when visiting a forest. As a result, among the independent variables, selective attribute (tourism resource factor), gender (male), and residency (Seoul) were found out to have positive(+) effect on demand for forest visit. However, other selective attribute (external factor of forestry), occupation (white-collar employee), and level of education (over college graduate) were found out to have negative(-) effect on demand for forest visit. Based on these results, implications for the expansion of demand for forest visits were derived.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.679-686
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• 2013

Based on the survey of East Lake Park, South Lake Park and Tian Waicun in Tai'an by questionnaire survey, on-the-spot investigation and in-depth interview, the paper analyzes the tendencies of visitors to the animal elements and animal landscape in landscape architecture from three terms: primary attributes, the cognition of animal elements and animal elements landscape preferences. We have drawn several conclusions: the landscapes of animal elements are in urgent demand by the public ; The animal elements having lovely image, auspicious meaning and local characteristics are the most popular application types of animal elements landscapes ; The most favorite types of animals and animal elements are: doves, cranes monkeys, pandas, butterflies, dragonflies, fold fish, dolphins, dragons and cartoon animals ; The popular landscaping techniques of animal elements are the methods of combining with plants, buildings and garden ornaments.