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A study on the prediction of korean NPL market return (한국 NPL시장 수익률 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyeon Su;Jeong, Seung Hwan;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.123-139
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    • 2019
  • The Korean NPL market was formed by the government and foreign capital shortly after the 1997 IMF crisis. However, this market is short-lived, as the bad debt has started to increase after the global financial crisis in 2009 due to the real economic recession. NPL has become a major investment in the market in recent years when the domestic capital market's investment capital began to enter the NPL market in earnest. Although the domestic NPL market has received considerable attention due to the overheating of the NPL market in recent years, research on the NPL market has been abrupt since the history of capital market investment in the domestic NPL market is short. In addition, decision-making through more scientific and systematic analysis is required due to the decline in profitability and the price fluctuation due to the fluctuation of the real estate business. In this study, we propose a prediction model that can determine the achievement of the benchmark yield by using the NPL market related data in accordance with the market demand. In order to build the model, we used Korean NPL data from December 2013 to December 2017 for about 4 years. The total number of things data was 2291. As independent variables, only the variables related to the dependent variable were selected for the 11 variables that indicate the characteristics of the real estate. In order to select the variables, one to one t-test and logistic regression stepwise and decision tree were performed. Seven independent variables (purchase year, SPC (Special Purpose Company), municipality, appraisal value, purchase cost, OPB (Outstanding Principle Balance), HP (Holding Period)). The dependent variable is a bivariate variable that indicates whether the benchmark rate is reached. This is because the accuracy of the model predicting the binomial variables is higher than the model predicting the continuous variables, and the accuracy of these models is directly related to the effectiveness of the model. In addition, in the case of a special purpose company, whether or not to purchase the property is the main concern. Therefore, whether or not to achieve a certain level of return is enough to make a decision. For the dependent variable, we constructed and compared the predictive model by calculating the dependent variable by adjusting the numerical value to ascertain whether 12%, which is the standard rate of return used in the industry, is a meaningful reference value. As a result, it was found that the hit ratio average of the predictive model constructed using the dependent variable calculated by the 12% standard rate of return was the best at 64.60%. In order to propose an optimal prediction model based on the determined dependent variables and 7 independent variables, we construct a prediction model by applying the five methodologies of discriminant analysis, logistic regression analysis, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model we tried to compare them. To do this, 10 sets of training data and testing data were extracted using 10 fold validation method. After building the model using this data, the hit ratio of each set was averaged and the performance was compared. As a result, the hit ratio average of prediction models constructed by using discriminant analysis, logistic regression model, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model were 64.40%, 65.12%, 63.54%, 67.40%, and 60.51%, respectively. It was confirmed that the model using the artificial neural network is the best. Through this study, it is proved that it is effective to utilize 7 independent variables and artificial neural network prediction model in the future NPL market. The proposed model predicts that the 12% return of new things will be achieved beforehand, which will help the special purpose companies make investment decisions. Furthermore, we anticipate that the NPL market will be liquidated as the transaction proceeds at an appropriate price.

Individual Thinking Style leads its Emotional Perception: Development of Web-style Design Evaluation Model and Recommendation Algorithm Depending on Consumer Regulatory Focus (사고가 시각을 바꾼다: 조절 초점에 따른 소비자 감성 기반 웹 스타일 평가 모형 및 추천 알고리즘 개발)

  • Kim, Keon-Woo;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.171-196
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    • 2018
  • With the development of the web, two-way communication and evaluation became possible and marketing paradigms shifted. In order to meet the needs of consumers, web design trends are continuously responding to consumer feedback. As the web becomes more and more important, both academics and businesses are studying consumer emotions and satisfaction on the web. However, some consumer characteristics are not well considered. Demographic characteristics such as age and sex have been studied extensively, but few studies consider psychological characteristics such as regulatory focus (i.e., emotional regulation). In this study, we analyze the effect of web style on consumer emotion. Many studies analyze the relationship between the web and regulatory focus, but most concentrate on the purpose of web use, particularly motivation and information search, rather than on web style and design. The web communicates with users through visual elements. Because the human brain is influenced by all five senses, both design factors and emotional responses are important in the web environment. Therefore, in this study, we examine the relationship between consumer emotion and satisfaction and web style and design. Previous studies have considered the effects of web layout, structure, and color on emotions. In this study, however, we excluded these web components, in contrast to earlier studies, and analyzed the relationship between consumer satisfaction and emotional indexes of web-style only. To perform this analysis, we collected consumer surveys presenting 40 web style themes to 204 consumers. Each consumer evaluated four themes. The emotional adjectives evaluated by consumers were composed of 18 contrast pairs, and the upper emotional indexes were extracted through factor analysis. The emotional indexes were 'softness,' 'modernity,' 'clearness,' and 'jam.' Hypotheses were established based on the assumption that emotional indexes have different effects on consumer satisfaction. After the analysis, hypotheses 1, 2, and 3 were accepted and hypothesis 4 was rejected. While hypothesis 4 was rejected, its effect on consumer satisfaction was negative, not positive. This means that emotional indexes such as 'softness,' 'modernity,' and 'clearness' have a positive effect on consumer satisfaction. In other words, consumers prefer emotions that are soft, emotional, natural, rounded, dynamic, modern, elaborate, unique, bright, pure, and clear. 'Jam' has a negative effect on consumer satisfaction. It means, consumer prefer the emotion which is empty, plain, and simple. Regulatory focus shows differences in motivation and propensity in various domains. It is important to consider organizational behavior and decision making according to the regulatory focus tendency, and it affects not only political, cultural, ethical judgments and behavior but also broad psychological problems. Regulatory focus also differs from emotional response. Promotion focus responds more strongly to positive emotional responses. On the other hand, prevention focus has a strong response to negative emotions. Web style is a type of service, and consumer satisfaction is affected not only by cognitive evaluation but also by emotion. This emotional response depends on whether the consumer will benefit or harm himself. Therefore, it is necessary to confirm the difference of the consumer's emotional response according to the regulatory focus which is one of the characteristics and viewpoint of the consumers about the web style. After MMR analysis result, hypothesis 5.3 was accepted, and hypothesis 5.4 was rejected. But hypothesis 5.4 supported in the opposite direction to the hypothesis. After validation, we confirmed the mechanism of emotional response according to the tendency of regulatory focus. Using the results, we developed the structure of web-style recommendation system and recommend methods through regulatory focus. We classified the regulatory focus group in to three categories that promotion, grey, prevention. Then, we suggest web-style recommend method along the group. If we further develop this study, we expect that the existing regulatory focus theory can be extended not only to the motivational part but also to the emotional behavioral response according to the regulatory focus tendency. Moreover, we believe that it is possible to recommend web-style according to regulatory focus and emotional desire which consumers most prefer.

Development of Analytical Method for Detection of Fungicide Validamycin A Residues in Agricultural Products Using LC-MS/MS (LC-MS/MS를 이용한 농산물 중 살균제 Validamycin A의 시험법 개발)

  • Park, Ji-Su;Do, Jung-Ah;Lee, Han Sol;Park, Shin-min;Cho, Sung Min;Shin, Hye-Sun;Jang, Dong Eun;Cho, Myong-Shik;Jung, Yong-hyun;Lee, Kangbong
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.22-29
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    • 2019
  • Validamycin A is an aminoglycoside fungicide produced by Streptomyces hygroscopicus that inhibits trehalase. The purpose of this study was to develop a method for detecting validamycin A in agricultural samples to establish MRL values for use in Korea. The validamycin A residues in samples were extracted using methanol/water (50/50, v/v) and purified with a hydrophilic-lipophilic balance (HLB) cartridges. The analyte was quantified and confirmed by liquid chromatograph-tandem mass spectrometer (LC-MS/MS) in positive ion mode using multiple reaction monitoring (MRM). Matrix-matched calibration curves were linear over the calibration ranges (0.005~0.5 ng) into a blank extract with $R^2$ > 0.99. The limits of detection and quantification were 0.005 and 0.01 mg/kg, respectively. For validation validamycin A, recovery studies were carried out three different concentration levels (LOQ, $LOQ{\times}10$, $LOQ{\times}50$, n = 5) with five replicates at each level. The average recovery range was from 72.5~118.3%, with relative standard deviation (RSD) less than 10.3%. All values were consistent with the criteria ranges requested in the Codex guidelines (CAC/GL 40-1993, 2003) and the NIFDS (National Institute of Food and Drug Safety) guideline (2016). Therefore, the proposed analytical method is accurate, effective and sensitive for validamycin A determination in agricultural commodities.

Implementation Strategy for the Elderly Care Solution Based on Usage Log Analysis: Focusing on the Case of Hyodol Product (사용자 로그 분석에 기반한 노인 돌봄 솔루션 구축 전략: 효돌 제품의 사례를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Junsik;Yoo, In-Jin;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.117-140
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    • 2019
  • As the aging phenomenon accelerates and various social problems related to the elderly of the vulnerable are raised, the need for effective elderly care solutions to protect the health and safety of the elderly generation is growing. Recently, more and more people are using Smart Toys equipped with ICT technology for care for elderly. In particular, log data collected through smart toys is highly valuable to be used as a quantitative and objective indicator in areas such as policy-making and service planning. However, research related to smart toys is limited, such as the development of smart toys and the validation of smart toy effectiveness. In other words, there is a dearth of research to derive insights based on log data collected through smart toys and to use them for decision making. This study will analyze log data collected from smart toy and derive effective insights to improve the quality of life for elderly users. Specifically, the user profiling-based analysis and elicitation of a change in quality of life mechanism based on behavior were performed. First, in the user profiling analysis, two important dimensions of classifying the type of elderly group from five factors of elderly user's living management were derived: 'Routine Activities' and 'Work-out Activities'. Based on the dimensions derived, a hierarchical cluster analysis and K-Means clustering were performed to classify the entire elderly user into three groups. Through a profiling analysis, the demographic characteristics of each group of elderlies and the behavior of using smart toy were identified. Second, stepwise regression was performed in eliciting the mechanism of change in quality of life. The effects of interaction, content usage, and indoor activity have been identified on the improvement of depression and lifestyle for the elderly. In addition, it identified the role of user performance evaluation and satisfaction with smart toy as a parameter that mediated the relationship between usage behavior and quality of life change. Specific mechanisms are as follows. First, the interaction between smart toy and elderly was found to have an effect of improving the depression by mediating attitudes to smart toy. The 'Satisfaction toward Smart Toy,' a variable that affects the improvement of the elderly's depression, changes how users evaluate smart toy performance. At this time, it has been identified that it is the interaction with smart toy that has a positive effect on smart toy These results can be interpreted as an elderly with a desire to meet emotional stability interact actively with smart toy, and a positive assessment of smart toy, greatly appreciating the effectiveness of smart toy. Second, the content usage has been confirmed to have a direct effect on improving lifestyle without going through other variables. Elderly who use a lot of the content provided by smart toy have improved their lifestyle. However, this effect has occurred regardless of the attitude the user has toward smart toy. Third, log data show that a high degree of indoor activity improves both the lifestyle and depression of the elderly. The more indoor activity, the better the lifestyle of the elderly, and these effects occur regardless of the user's attitude toward smart toy. In addition, elderly with a high degree of indoor activity are satisfied with smart toys, which cause improvement in the elderly's depression. However, it can be interpreted that elderly who prefer outdoor activities than indoor activities, or those who are less active due to health problems, are hard to satisfied with smart toys, and are not able to get the effects of improving depression. In summary, based on the activities of the elderly, three groups of elderly were identified and the important characteristics of each type were identified. In addition, this study sought to identify the mechanism by which the behavior of the elderly on smart toy affects the lives of the actual elderly, and to derive user needs and insights.

How to improve the accuracy of recommendation systems: Combining ratings and review texts sentiment scores (평점과 리뷰 텍스트 감성분석을 결합한 추천시스템 향상 방안 연구)

  • Hyun, Jiyeon;Ryu, Sangyi;Lee, Sang-Yong Tom
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.219-239
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    • 2019
  • As the importance of providing customized services to individuals becomes important, researches on personalized recommendation systems are constantly being carried out. Collaborative filtering is one of the most popular systems in academia and industry. However, there exists limitation in a sense that recommendations were mostly based on quantitative information such as users' ratings, which made the accuracy be lowered. To solve these problems, many studies have been actively attempted to improve the performance of the recommendation system by using other information besides the quantitative information. Good examples are the usages of the sentiment analysis on customer review text data. Nevertheless, the existing research has not directly combined the results of the sentiment analysis and quantitative rating scores in the recommendation system. Therefore, this study aims to reflect the sentiments shown in the reviews into the rating scores. In other words, we propose a new algorithm that can directly convert the user 's own review into the empirically quantitative information and reflect it directly to the recommendation system. To do this, we needed to quantify users' reviews, which were originally qualitative information. In this study, sentiment score was calculated through sentiment analysis technique of text mining. The data was targeted for movie review. Based on the data, a domain specific sentiment dictionary is constructed for the movie reviews. Regression analysis was used as a method to construct sentiment dictionary. Each positive / negative dictionary was constructed using Lasso regression, Ridge regression, and ElasticNet methods. Based on this constructed sentiment dictionary, the accuracy was verified through confusion matrix. The accuracy of the Lasso based dictionary was 70%, the accuracy of the Ridge based dictionary was 79%, and that of the ElasticNet (${\alpha}=0.3$) was 83%. Therefore, in this study, the sentiment score of the review is calculated based on the dictionary of the ElasticNet method. It was combined with a rating to create a new rating. In this paper, we show that the collaborative filtering that reflects sentiment scores of user review is superior to the traditional method that only considers the existing rating. In order to show that the proposed algorithm is based on memory-based user collaboration filtering, item-based collaborative filtering and model based matrix factorization SVD, and SVD ++. Based on the above algorithm, the mean absolute error (MAE) and the root mean square error (RMSE) are calculated to evaluate the recommendation system with a score that combines sentiment scores with a system that only considers scores. When the evaluation index was MAE, it was improved by 0.059 for UBCF, 0.0862 for IBCF, 0.1012 for SVD and 0.188 for SVD ++. When the evaluation index is RMSE, UBCF is 0.0431, IBCF is 0.0882, SVD is 0.1103, and SVD ++ is 0.1756. As a result, it can be seen that the prediction performance of the evaluation point reflecting the sentiment score proposed in this paper is superior to that of the conventional evaluation method. In other words, in this paper, it is confirmed that the collaborative filtering that reflects the sentiment score of the user review shows superior accuracy as compared with the conventional type of collaborative filtering that only considers the quantitative score. We then attempted paired t-test validation to ensure that the proposed model was a better approach and concluded that the proposed model is better. In this study, to overcome limitations of previous researches that judge user's sentiment only by quantitative rating score, the review was numerically calculated and a user's opinion was more refined and considered into the recommendation system to improve the accuracy. The findings of this study have managerial implications to recommendation system developers who need to consider both quantitative information and qualitative information it is expect. The way of constructing the combined system in this paper might be directly used by the developers.

Estimation of Fresh Weight and Leaf Area Index of Soybean (Glycine max) Using Multi-year Spectral Data (다년도 분광 데이터를 이용한 콩의 생체중, 엽면적 지수 추정)

  • Jang, Si-Hyeong;Ryu, Chan-Seok;Kang, Ye-Seong;Park, Jun-Woo;Kim, Tae-Yang;Kang, Kyung-Suk;Park, Min-Jun;Baek, Hyun-Chan;Park, Yu-hyeon;Kang, Dong-woo;Zou, Kunyan;Kim, Min-Cheol;Kwon, Yeon-Ju;Han, Seung-ah;Jun, Tae-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.329-339
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    • 2021
  • Soybeans (Glycine max), one of major upland crops, require precise management of environmental conditions, such as temperature, water, and soil, during cultivation since they are sensitive to environmental changes. Application of spectral technologies that measure the physiological state of crops remotely has great potential for improving quality and productivity of the soybean by estimating yields, physiological stresses, and diseases. In this study, we developed and validated a soybean growth prediction model using multispectral imagery. We conducted a linear regression analysis between vegetation indices and soybean growth data (fresh weight and LAI) obtained at Miryang fields. The linear regression model was validated at Goesan fields. It was found that the model based on green ratio vegetation index (GRVI) had the greatest performance in prediction of fresh weight at the calibration stage (R2=0.74, RMSE=246 g/m2, RE=34.2%). In the validation stage, RMSE and RE of the model were 392 g/m2 and 32%, respectively. The errors of the model differed by cropping system, For example, RMSE and RE of model in single crop fields were 315 g/m2 and 26%, respectively. On the other hand, the model had greater values of RMSE (381 g/m2) and RE (31%) in double crop fields. As a result of developing models for predicting a fresh weight into two years (2018+2020) with similar accumulated temperature (AT) in three years and a single year (2019) that was different from that AT, the prediction performance of a single year model was better than a two years model. Consequently, compared with those models divided by AT and a three years model, RMSE of a single crop fields were improved by about 29.1%. However, those of double crop fields decreased by about 19.6%. When environmental factors are used along with, spectral data, the reliability of soybean growth prediction can be achieved various environmental conditions.

An accuracy analysis of Cyberknife tumor tracking radiotherapy according to unpredictable change of respiration (예측 불가능한 호흡 변화에 따른 사이버나이프 종양 추적 방사선 치료의 정확도 분석)

  • Seo, jung min;Lee, chang yeol;Huh, hyun do;Kim, wan sun
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.157-166
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    • 2015
  • Purpose : Cyber-Knife tumor tracking system, based on the correlation relationship between the position of a tumor which moves in response to the real time respiratory cycle signal and respiration was obtained by the LED marker attached to the outside of the patient, the location of the tumor to predict in advance, the movement of the tumor in synchronization with the therapeutic device to track real-time tumor, is a system for treating. The purpose of this study, in the cyber knife tumor tracking radiation therapy, trying to evaluate the accuracy of tumor tracking radiation therapy system due to the change in the form of unpredictable sudden breathing due to cough and sleep. Materials and Methods : Breathing Log files that were used in the study, based on the Respiratory gating radiotherapy and Cyber-knife tracking radiosurgery breathing Log files of patients who received herein, measured using the Log files in the form of a Sinusoidal pattern and Sudden change pattern. it has been reconstituted as possible. Enter the reconstructed respiratory Log file cyber knife dynamic chest Phantom, so that it is possible to implement a motion due to respiration, add manufacturing the driving apparatus of the existing dynamic chest Phantom, Phantom the form of respiration we have developed a program that can be applied to. Movement of the phantom inside the target (Ball cube target) was driven by the displacement of three sizes of according to the size of the respiratory vertical (Superior-Inferior) direction to the 5 mm, 10 mm, 20 mm. Insert crosses two EBT3 films in phantom inside the target in response to changes in the target movement, the End-to-End (E2E) test provided in Cyber-Knife manufacturer depending on the form of the breathing five times each. It was determined by carrying. Accuracy of tumor tracking system is indicated by the target error by analyzing the inserted film, additional E2E test is analyzed by measuring the correlation error while being advanced. Results : If the target error is a sine curve breathing form, the size of the target of the movement is in response to the 5 mm, 10 mm, 20 mm, respectively, of the average $1.14{\pm}0.13mm$, $1.05{\pm}0.20mm$, with $2.37{\pm}0.17mm$, suddenly for it is variations in breathing, respective average $1.87{\pm}0.19mm$, $2.15{\pm}0.21mm$, and analyzed with $2.44{\pm}0.26mm$. If the correlation error can be defined by the length of the displacement vector in the target track is a sinusoidal breathing mode, the size of the target of the movement in response to 5 mm, 10 mm, 20 mm, respective average $0.84{\pm}0.01mm$, $0.70{\pm}0.13mm$, with $1.63{\pm}0.10mm$, if it is a variant of sudden breathing respective average $0.97{\pm}0.06mm$, $1.44{\pm}0.11mm$, and analyzed with $1.98{\pm}0.10mm$. The larger the correlation error values in both the both the respiratory form, the target error value is large. If the motion size of the target of the sine curve breathing form is greater than or equal to 20 mm, was measured at 1.5 mm or more is a recommendation value of both cyber knife manufacturer of both error value. Conclusion : There is a tendency that the correlation error value between about target error value magnitude of the target motion is large is increased, the error value becomes large in variation of rapid respiration than breathing the form of a sine curve. The more the shape of the breathing large movements regular shape of sine curves target accuracy of the tumor tracking system can be judged to be reduced. Using the algorithm of Cyber-Knife tumor tracking system, when there is a change in the sudden unpredictable respiratory due patient coughing during treatment enforcement is to stop the treatment, it is assumed to carry out the internal target validation process again, it is necessary to readjust the form of respiration. Patients under treatment is determined to be able to improve the treatment of accuracy to induce the observed form of regular breathing and put like to see the goggles monitor capable of the respiratory form of the person.

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