• Title/Summary/Keyword: unit-root test

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An Analysis of Balassa-Samuelson Effect by Panel Cointegration Test (패널공적분검정을 통한 발라사-사무엘슨 효과 분석)

  • Choi, Yong-Jae
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.67-84
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this paper is to investigate the Balassa-Samuelson effect that real exchange rate could deviate from its long-run equilibrium. To analyze this effect, I estimated the long-run relationship between real exchange and productivity using the dynamic panel ordinary least square(DOLS) and panel error correction model(ECM) after conducting the unit root and cointegration test. The results show that all variables except for the real exchange rate have the unit root. Then I conducted the cointegration test to find out whether there exist the stable long-run relationships. The results show that the variables are cointegrated and significant statistically. The DOLS and ECM methods are used to estimate the coefficient of the cointegrated variables. The major finding are that the estimates are statistically significant and that they show the same sign as the economic theory predicts.

Discrimination between trend and difference stationary processes based on adaptive lasso (Adaptive lasso를 이용하여 추세-정상시계열과 차분-정상시계열을 판별하는 방법에 대한 연구)

  • Na, Okyoung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.723-738
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, we study a method to discriminate between trend stationary and difference stationary processes. Since a crucial ingredient of this discrimination is to determine the existence of unit root, we can use a unit root testing strategy. So, we introduce a discrimination based on unit root testing and propose the method using the adaptive lasso. Our Monte Carlo simulation experiments show that the adaptive lasso improves the discrimination accuracy when the process is trend stationary, but has lower accuracy than unit root strategy where the process is difference stationary.

The Role of Remittances in Financial Development: Evidence from Nonlinear ARDL and Asymmetric Causality

  • MEHTA, Ahmed Muneeb;QAMRUZZAMAN, Md.;SERFRAZ, Ayesha;ALI, Asad
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.139-154
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    • 2021
  • This study's impetus is to explore fresh evidence to answer the question, i.e., whether remittances asymmetrically influence financial development in Bangladesh from 1975 to 2019. The study employs several tests, i.e., nonlinear unit root test, Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL), NARDL, and asymmetric causality test for establishing the pattern of association. Nonlinear unit root tests confirm that variables follow a nonlinear system of being stationary after the first difference. nonlinearity among variables is investigated by performing the BDS test and nonlinear OLS. Directional causality is investigated through both linear and nonlinear effects of remittance inflows by following the non-granger casualty test. The test statistics of Fpass and tBDM showed the Long-run cointegration in the empirical model and positive effect running from remittances inflow to financial development both in the long-run and short-run. Furthermore, the results of a standard Wald test divulge the presence of long-run and short-run asymmetry. Asymmetry causality test established unidirectional causality due to positive and negative shocks in remittances inflows to Bank-based financial development and feedback hypothesis hold for explaining causality between positive and negative shocks in remittance inflows and Stock-based financial development.

A Study on the Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence from Korea, Japan and China

  • Yoon, Il-Hyun;Kim, Yong-Min
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.61-75
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    • 2020
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study was to examine the efficiency of the foreign exchange markets in Korea, Japan and China. Design/methodology/approach - This study collected 1327 observations each of the daily closing exchange rates of the three currencies against the US dollar for the sample period from January 1, 2015 to January 31, 2020, based on the tests for autocorrelation, unit root tests and GARCH-M(1,1) model estimation. Findings - We have found that the autocorrelation test indicates the lack of autocorrelation and unit root test confirms the existence of unit roots in all times series of the three currencies, respectively. The GARCH-M(1,1) test results, however, suggest that the exchange rates do not follow a random walk process. In conclusion, the recent spot foreign exchange markets in Korea, Japan and China are believed to be informationally inefficient. Research implications or Originality - These findings have practical implications for both individual and institutional investors to be able to obtain excess returns on their investments in the foreign exchange markets in three countries by using appropriate risk management, portfolio strategy, technical analysis, etc. This study provides the first empirical examination on the foreign exchange market efficiency in the three biggest economies in Asia including China, which has been excluded from research due to its exchange rate regime.

Testing for Convergence in Carbon Dioxide Emissions : Using a Dynamic Panel Analysis and Panel Unit Root Test (이산화탄소 배출량의 수렴성 검정 : 다이나믹 패널 분석과 패널 단위근 검정을 이용하여)

  • Cho, Sungtaek;Cho, Yongsung
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.53-73
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    • 2009
  • This study examines the existence of ${\beta}$-convergence of carbon dioxide emissions in 24 countries over the period 1971~2002. For that purpose, The model of economic growth developed by Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1995) is extended and conducted Dynamic panel analysis and unit root testing by employing the panel stationarity test of Levin et al. (2002) and 1m et al. (2003). A dynamic panel estimation is well known method including capacity to control for both the endogeneity problem and the unobserved country-specific effects problem. Dynamic panel estimation method has been widely used in similar empirical studies. therefore, we also used the dynamic panel estimation method in our estimation. The result show that evidence of ${\beta}$-convergence exists among both the Obligatory GHG reduction countries (Annex) and the Non-obligatory GHG reduction countries (Non-Annex). but China discharge amount of $CO_2$ gas more than any other country. This fact can cause some bias in overall test. and so we reexamined test of convergence for Non-annex countries excluding china. As expected, in the Non-annex countries excluding china, I couldn't find any evidence of convergence.

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A Causality Test on Hairtail Prices among Import and Domestic Markets Using a Vector Error Correction Model(VECM) (오차수정모형을 이용한 갈치 시장가격 간의 인과관계 분석)

  • Kim, Kyu-Min;Kim, Do-Hoon
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.49-58
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    • 2018
  • This study aimed to analyze the causality of hairtail prices among import and domestic distribution channels using a Vector Error Correction Model(VECM). The results are as follows. First, since the ADF unit-root test suggests that each of the price variables, apart from retail price, has a unit root, the price variables should be 1st-differenced to secure the stability of the prices. Next, through the Johansen co-integration test, it was discovered that there are long-term relationships among the price variables. On the basis of the co-integration test, VECM analysis shows that the producer price has a long-run balance with the import and wholesale prices. In particular, when the prices deviate from the balance, the producer price dynamically adjusts to return to the long-term relationship among prices. It also indicates that the producer price has an impact on the import, wholesale, and retail prices in the short-term, and the import price has an influence on the producer and wholesale prices. In addition, the impulse response analysis demonstrates that the impulse of import and producer prices has a lasting impact on each of the prices.

Lagrange Multiplier Test for both Regular and Seasonal Unit Roots

  • Park, Young-J.;Cho, Sin-Sup
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.101-114
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    • 1995
  • In this paper we consider the multiple unit root tests both for the regular and seasonal unit roots based on the Lagrange Multiplier(LM) principle. Unlike Li(1991)'s method, by plugging the restricted maximum likelihood estimates of the nuisance parameters in the model, we propose a Lagrange multiplier test which does not depend on the existence of the nuisance parameters. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed statistic is derived and empirical percentiles of the test statistic for selected seasonal periods are provided. The power and size of the test statistic for examined for finite samples through a Monte Carlo simularion.

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Financial Development and Output Growth: A Panel Study for Asian Countries

  • Jun, Sangjoon
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.97-115
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    • 2012
  • This paper investigates the relationship between financial markets and output growth for a panel of 27 Asian countries over 1960-2009. It utilizes the recently-developed panel cointegration techniques to test and estimate the long-run equilibrium relationship between real GDP and financial development proxies. Real GDP and financial development variables are found to have unit roots and to be cointegrated, based on various panel unit root tests and panel cointegration tests. We find that there is a statistically significant positive bi-directional cointegrating relationship between financial development and output growth by three distinct methods of panel cointegration estimation. Empirical findings suggest that financial market development promotes output growth and in turn output growth stimulates further financial development.

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Study on the Relationship between CO2, Nuclear, and Renewable Energy Generation in Korea, Japan and Germany (CO2 배출, 원자력에너지, 신재생에너지 발전량과의 관계분석: 한국, 일본, 독일을 중심으로)

  • Yun, Junghye;Kang, Sangmok
    • New & Renewable Energy
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.9-22
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzed the short- and long-term effects of nuclear and renewable energy generation on CO2 emissions in Korea, Japan, and Germany from 1987 to 2016 by using the unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, and ARDL model. The unit root test was performed, and the Johansen cointegration test showed cointegration relationships among variables. In the long run, in Germany, the generation of both nuclear and renewable energy was found to affect CO2 emission reduction, while South Korea's renewable energy generation, including hydropower, increased the emissions. Japan only showed significance in fossil fuels. In the short run, in the three countries, the generation of nuclear and renewable energy, excluding hydropower, affected CO2 emission. However, in Korea and Germany, nuclear and renewable energy generation, respectively, affected CO2 emission reduction. Although the rest are significant, the results showed that they increased CO2 emissions.

Marginal and internal discrepancy of 3-unit fixed dental prostheses fabricated by subtractive and additive manufacturing (절삭 및 적층 가공법으로 제작된 3본 고정성 국소의치의 변연 및 내면 적합도에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Jae-Won
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.58 no.1
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    • pp.7-13
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: This study was to evaluate marginal and internal discrepancy of 3-unit fixed dental prostheses (FDP) fabricated by subtractive manufacturing and additive manufacturing. Materials and methods: 3-unit bridge abutments without the maxillary left second premolar were prepared (reference model) and the reference model scan data was obtained using an intraoral scanner. 3-unit fixed dental prostheses were fabricated in the following three ways: Milled 3-unit FDP (MIL), digital light processing (DLP) 3D printed 3-unit FDP (D3P), stereolithography apparatus (SLA) 3D printed 3-unit FDP (S3P). To evaluate the marginal/internal discrepancy and precision of the prosthesis, scan data were superimposed by the triple-scan protocol and the combinations calculator, respectively. Quantitative and qualitative analysis was performed using root mean square (RMS) value and color difference map in 3D analysis program (Geomagic control X). Statistical analysis was performed using the Kruskal-Wallis test (α=.05), MannWhitney U test and Bonferroni correction (α=.05/3=.017). Results: The marginal discrepancy of S3P group was superior to MIL and D3P groups, and MIL and D3P groups were similar. The D3P and S3P groups showed better internal discrepancy than the MIL group, and there was no significant difference between the D3P and S3P groups. The precision was excellent in the order of MIL, S3P, and D3P groups. Conclusion: Within the limitation of this study, the 3-unit fixed dental prostheses fabricated by additive manufacturing showed better marginal and internal discrepancy than the those of fabricated by subtractive manufacturing, but the precision was poor.