• Title/Summary/Keyword: unit-root test

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An Exploration of Dynamical Relationships between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Prices in Korea

  • Lee, Jung Wan;Brahmasrene, Tantatape
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.7-17
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    • 2018
  • This paper examines short-run and long-run dynamic relationships between selected macroeconomic variables and stock prices in the Korea Stock Exchange. The data is restricted to the period for which monthly data are available from January 1986 to October 2016 (370 observations) retrieved from the Economic Statistics System database sponsored by the Bank of Korea. The study employs unit root test, cointegration test, vector error correction estimates, impulse response test, and structural break test. The results of the Johansen cointegration test indicate at least three cointegrating equations exist at the 0.05 level in the model, confirming that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables in Korea. The results of vector error correction model (VECM) estimates indicate that money supply and short-term interest rate are not related to stock prices in the short-run. However, exchange rate is positively related to stock prices while the industrial production index and inflation are negatively related to stock prices in the short-run. Furthermore, the VECM estimates indicate that the external shock, such as regional and global financial crisis shocks, neither affects changes in the endogenous variables nor causes instability in the cointegrating vector. This study finds that the endogenous variables are determined by their own dynamics in the model.

A sign test for random walk hypothesis based on slopes (기울기를 이용한 랜덤워크 부호검정)

  • Kim, Tae Yoon;Park, Cheolyong;Kim, Seul Gee;Kim, Chan Jin;Kim, Hyun;Yu, Ju Hyung;Jang, Kyung Min;Jang, Young Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.385-392
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    • 2014
  • Random walk hypothesis is a hypothesis that explains theoretically the difficulty in forecasting in financial market. Various tests for the hypothesis have been developed so far but it is known that those tests suffer from low power and size distortion. In this article, a sign test based on slopes are suggested to overcome these difficulties. A simulation study is conducted to compare this test to the often used Dickey and Fuller (1979) test.

The Effect of EDTA, Tetracycline-HCl, and Citric Acid on Diseased Root Surfaces; The SEM Study (EDTA, 염산 테트라싸이클린, 구연산 처치가 치근면에 미치는 영향)

  • Ahn, Seong-Hee;Chai, Jung-Kiu;Kim, Chong-Kwan;Cho, Kyoo-Sung
    • Journal of Periodontal and Implant Science
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.561-578
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    • 1999
  • The goal of periodontal therapy is the periodontal regeneration by the removal of microorganisms and their toxic products from the periodontally diseased root surface. To achieve periodontal regeneration, root conditioning as an adjunct to root planing has been done. There are low pH etchants such as citric acid, tetracycline-HCl, and EDTA solution which is a neutral chelating agent. The purpose of present study was to examine the effect of root conditioning by citric acid, tetracycline HCl, and EDTA. Total 35 root specimens(6${\times}$3${\times}$2mm) were prepared from the periodontally diseased teeth, scaled and root planed. The specimens were treated with normal saline for 1 minute, saturated citric acid(pH 1) for 3 minutes, 50mg/ml tetracycline-HCl(pH 2) for 5 minutes, 15% EDTA(pH 7) for 5 minutes using rubbing technique. The specimens were examined under scanning electron microscopy at 1000, and 3000 magnification. On the microphotographs taken at 1000 magnification, the numbers of opened and patent dentinal tubules per unit area(10,640${\mu}m^2$) were counted. And the diameters of opened dentinal tubules per unit are (10,640${\mu}m^2$) were measured. The differences of number and diameter among all groups were statistically analyzed by Kruskal Wallis Test. The results were as follows; 1. In the specimens applied with normal saline(control group), the root surface was finely cracked, and was covered by irregular smear layer. Neither exposed dentinal tubules nor any patent dentinal tubules could be seen. 2. In the specimens applied with saturated citric acid(experimental 1 group), the globular collagen fibers were exposed around the peritubular space, and many dentinal tubules were revealed. 3. In the specimens applied with tetracycline-HCl(experimental 2 group), the process-like collagen fibers were exposed around the peritubular space, and some dentinal tubules were revealed. 4. In the specimens applied with 15% EDTA(experimental 3 group), the root surface was covered by the collagenous fibrillar network, and many dentinal tubules were revealed. 5. The numbers of opened and patent dentinal tubules were significantly more in exp. 1 group and exp. 3 group than in exp. 2 group(P<0.05). But there was no significant difference between exp. 1 group and exp. 3 group. In control group, the number of opened and patent dentinal tubules could not be counted because any dentinal tubules couldn't be seen. 6 . The diameter of opened dentinal tubules was significantly smaller in exp. 1 group and exp. 3 group than in exp. 2 group(P<0.05). But there was no significant difference between exp. 1 group and exp. 3 group. In control group, the diameter of opened dentinal tubules could not be measured because any dentinal tubules couldn't be seen. The results demonstrate that root conditioning with citric acid, tetracycline- HCl, and EDTA is more effective in periodontal healing than only root planing, and 15% EDTA solution can replace low pH etching agents such as citric acid, tetracycline-HCl for root conditioning.

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Efficient Selection Method for Drought Tolerant Plants Using Osmotic Agents

  • Park, Dong-Jin;Im, Hyeon-Jeong;Jeong, Mi-Jin;Song, Hyeon-Jin;Kim, Hak-Gon;Suh, Gang-Uk;Ghimire, Balkrishna;Choi, Myung-Suk
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.224-234
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    • 2018
  • An efficient method to select drought tolerant Korean native plants using in vitro culture system was established in this study. While the plant growths and root inductions of each plant were proportionately affected by concentrations of mannitol on in vitro culturing seven plant species to test tolerance to osmotic stress, growth index (GI) and number of root induction of Chrysanthemi zawadskii var. latilobum and Dianthus chinensis var. semperflorens plantlets were higher than the others in 125mM mannitol. In test with polyethylene glycol (PEG), plantlets of C. zawadskii var. latilobum and D. chinensis var. semperflorens showed higher GI and number of root induction than the others in 33.3mM. On testing whether the well grown plants under osmotic stress are tolerant to virtual drought stress, there were significant differences in the withering rates of C. zawadskii var. latilobum and D. chinensis and those of were Aster yomena and Centaurea cyanus after 12 days without watering. It was found that significantly lower stomata numbers were shown in both drought tolerant plants than the sensitive plants. Averages of the stomata circumferences and the stomata area in the plantlets of the tolerant species were larger than those of the sensitive plants D. chinensis var. semperflorens showed the lowest transpiration level per unit area. The highest stomatal area per unit area was found in C. zawadskii, followed by D. chinensis var. semperflorens, Aster yomena and C. cyanus. In conclusion, C. zawadskii var. latilobum and D. chinensis var. semperflorens were more tolerant to drought than other two species. Furthermore in vitro selection was successfully used to screen drought tolerance species of native plant species.

The Nexus between Urbanization, Gross Capital Formation and Economic Growth: A Study of Saudi Arabia

  • KHAN, Uzma
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.677-682
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    • 2020
  • To investigate the nexus between urban population, gross capital formation, and economic growth in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, yearly data was collected from the World Bank for the period 1974- 2018. Basic statistics test and correlation matrix was used to investigate the causal effect among the tested parameters, followed by Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) stationary test, co-integration analysis by Johansen test after that Vector Auto-Correction Model for both short-run and long-run and finally the Granger-Causality tests. Result of unit root test analysis shows that the urban population became stationary at I (0) level while economic growth and gross capital formation became stationary at I (1). Johansen co-integration analysis indicates that there is presence of both long-run and short-run relationship between the three variables in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The result of the VECM Model reflects that both economic growth and gross capital formation have a negative impact on urban population in the short run. According to the Granger-Causality tests, there is unidirectional causality with the urban population by both gross capital formation and economic growth. Also, the result of the Granger Causality tests show that there is unidirectional causality between economic growth and gross capital formations.

A Study on Price Discovery Function of Japan's Frozen Shrimp Future Market (일본 냉동새우 선물시장의 가격발견기능에 관한 연구)

  • Nam Soo-Hyun
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.37 no.1 s.70
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    • pp.95-110
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    • 2006
  • Japan's frozen shrimp future market is the only fisheries future commodity market in the world. This empirical study examines the lead and lag relationship between Japan frozen shrimp spot and future markets using the daily prices from August 1, 2002 to December 31, 2005. Frozen shrimp future contract is listed on Japan Kansai Commodities Exchange. Japan imports approximately 250,000 tons of frozen shrimp annually, of which just under 70,000 tons, nearly 30%, are black tiger shrimp. Approximately 90% of black tiger shrimp are caught in Indonesia, India, Thailand and Vietnam, and the two largest consumers of these shrimp are Japan and the U.S.A. Kansai Commodities Exchange adopts the India black tiger shrimp as standard future commodity. We use unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test, Vector autoregressive analysis and Impulse response analysis. However, considering the long - term relationships between the level variables of frozen shrimp spot and futures, we introduced Vector Error Correction Model. We find that the price change of frozen shrimp futures with next 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 month maturity have a strong predictive power to the change of frozen shrimp spot and the change of frozen shrimp spot also have a predictive power to the change of frozen shrimp with next 1, 2, 3 month maturity. But, the explanatory power of the frozen shrimp futures is relatively greater than that of frozen shrimp spot.

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Contribution of Tourism and Foreign Direct Investment to Gross Domestic Product: Econometric Analysis in the Case of Sri Lanka

  • MOHAMED MUSTAFA, Abdul Majeed
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.109-114
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of the study to evaluate the contribution of foreign direct investment (FDI) and tourism receipts (TR) to Sri Lanka's gross domestic product (GDP). This study employs time series annual data for the period from 1978 to 2016 and EViews 10 econometrics software was used for the time series data analysis. Unit root test was done on the variables and the method chosen was the Augmented Dicky - Fuller test. Co-integration analysis was used for the long run relationship and the Granger causality test was performed to investigate the causal relationship. Recently a more conducive environment has been established after the three decade long ethnic war came to an end. In this context, the Sri Lankan government has taken positive measures to attract foreign direct investment and boost tourism in the country. This study intends to evaluate the contribution of Sri Lanka, as these two factors are considered to be very effective at increasing the GDP of a country. The empirical study shows that there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between the variable's TR and FDI to the GDP in the long run. Results of Granger causality test implied that the two-way causality promoted the economic growth of Sri Lanka.

Tests for Asymmetry and Structure Changes in Retail Price Volatility of Fresh Common Squid in the Republic of Korea (신선 물오징어 소매가격 변동성의 구조변화와 비대칭성 검증)

  • Nam, Jongoh;Sim, Seonghyun
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.357-368
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    • 2015
  • This study analyzed structural changes and asymmetry of price volatility during the period before and after a point of structural change in price volatility, using the Korean fresh common squid daily retail price data from January 1, 2004 to September 30, 2015. This study utilized the following analytical methods: the unit-root test was applied to ensure the stability of the data, the Quandt-Andrews breakpoint test was applied to find the point of structural change, and the Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle GARCH and EGARCH models were applied to investigate the asymmetry of price volatility. The empirical results of this study are as follows. First, ADF, PP, KPSS and Zivot-Andrews tests showed that the daily retail price change rate of the Korean fresh common squid differentiated by logarithm was stable. Secondly, the ARIMA (2,1,2) model was selected by information criteria such as AIC, SC, and HQ. Thirdly, the Quandt-Andrews breakpoint test found that a single structural change in price volatility occurred on June 11, 2009. Fourthly, the Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle GARCH and EGARCH models showed that estimates of coefficients within the models were statistically significant before and after structural change and also that asymmetry as a leverage effect existed before and after structural change.

The Relationship between Exchange Rate and Trade Balance: Empirical Evidence from Sri Lanka

  • FATHIMA THAHARA, Aboobucker;FATHIMA RINOSHA, Kalideen;FATHIMA SHIFANIYA, Abdul Jawahir
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.37-41
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to investigate the relationship between the exchange rate and Trade Balance. Trade Balance is used as the dependent variable, and the independent variables are Exchange Rate, Gross Domestic Product, and Inflation. Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test was adopted to test the stationary property of time series data, Auto Regressive Distributed Lag model was employed to find the long run and short-run relationship and long-run adjustment, Bound test approach, the unrestricted Error Correction Model and Granger Causality Test are used to analyze the data from 1977 to 2019. The research findings suggest that inflation has a positive impact on the trade balance in the short run. The exchange rate and the Gross Domestic Product have adverse effects on Trade balance in the long run. The coefficient of ER in the previous year is negative, and the coefficient of TB in the previous year is positive and significant. This is consistent with the J-Curve phenomenon, which states that devaluation may not improve trade balance in the immediate period, but will significantly impact the trade balance improvement in subsequent periods. Hence Marshall Lerner Condition exists in Sri Lanka.

The research on daily temperature using continuous AR model (일별 온도의 연속형 자기회귀모형 연구 - 6개 광역시를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Ji Young;Jeong, Kiho
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.155-167
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    • 2014
  • This study uses a continuous autoregressive (CAR) model to analyze daily average temperature in six Korean metropolitan cities. Data period is Jan. 1, 1954 to Dec. 31, 2010 covering 57 years. Using a relative long time series reveals that the linear time trend components are all statistically significant in the six cities, which was not shown in previous studies. Particularly the plus sign of its coefficient implies the effect on Korea of the global warming. Unit-root test results are that the temperature time series are stationary without unit-root. It turns out that CAR(3) is suitable for stochastic component of the daily temperature. Since developing suitable continuous stochastic model of the underlying weather related variables is crucial in pricing the weather derivatives, the results in this study will likely prove useful in further future studies on pricing weather derivatives.