• Title/Summary/Keyword: under-estimation

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Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Economic Traits in Swine (종돈의 경제 형질의 유전모수 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, C.S.;Lee, I.J.;Cho, K.H.;Seo, K.S.;Lee, J.G.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.145-154
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    • 2004
  • This study was conducted to estimate genetic parameter of Duroc, Landrace and Yorkshire breeds based on the on-farm performance tested records of 57,316 pigs under the supervision of Korean Animal Improvement Association from 1992 to 1999. Genetic parameters were estimated with a multiple trait animal model by using DF - REML. The result obtained in this study was summarized as follow ; The estimated heritabilities of Duroc, Landrace and Yorkshire were 0.46${\sim}$0.65 for the average backfat thickness, 0.28${\sim}$0.31 for loin depth, 0.50~0.60 for percent lean, 0.45${\sim}$0.55 for the average daily gain, 0.38${\sim}$0.50 for age at 90kg, respectively. Phenotypic correlation of average backfat thickness with loin depth, percent lean, average daily gain and age at 90㎏ for the three breeds were -0.12${\sim}$-0.01, -0.81${\sim}$-0.76, 0.34${\sim}$0.46, and -0.41${\sim}$-0.33, respectively. Phenotypic correlation of loin depth with percent lean, average daily gain and age at 90kg were 0.12${\sim}$0.23, 0.03${\sim}$0.21, and -0.17${\sim}$-0.03, respectively. Phenotypic correlation of percent lean with average daily gain and age at 90kg were -0.37${\sim}$-0.26 and 0.26~0.35, respectively. Phenotypic correlation of average daily gain with age at 90kg was -0.97${\sim}$-0.95. The estimated genetic correlation coefficients of average backfat thickness with loin depth, percent lean, average daily gain and age at 90kg estimated for the three breeds were -0.17${\sim}$0.03, -0.79${\sim}$-0.69, 0.24${\sim}$0.45 and -0.41${\sim}$-0.19, respectively. The estimated genetic correlation coefficients of loin depth with percent lean, average daily gain and age at 90kg were 0.11~0.19, 0.23 and -0.30~-0.20, respectively. The estimated correlation coefficients of percent lean with average daily gain and age at 90kg were -0.36${\sim}$-0.13 and 0.10~0.34, respectively. The estimated genetic correlation coefficients of average daily gain with age at 90㎏ was -0.96${\sim}$-0.95.

Development of Trip Generation Type Models toward Traffic Zone Characteristics (Zone특성 분할을 통한 유형별 통행발생 모형개발)

  • Kim, Tae-Ho;Rho, Jeong-Hyun;Kim, Young-Il;Oh, Young-Taek
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.93-100
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    • 2010
  • Trip generation is the first step in the conventional four-step model and has great effects on overall demand forecasting, so accuracy really matters at this stage. A linear regression model is widely used as a current trip generation model for such plans as urban transportation and SOC facilities, assuming that the relationship between each socio-economic index and trip generation stays linear. But when rapid urban development or an urban planning structure has changed, socio-economic index data for trip estimation may be lacking to bring many errors in estimated trip. Hence, instead of assuming that a socio-economic index widely used for a general purpose, this study aims to develop a new trip generation model by type based on the market separation for the variables to reflect the characteristics of various zones. The study considered the various characteristics (land use, socio-economic) of zones to enhance the forecasting accuracy of a trip generation model, the first-step in forecasting transportation demands. For a market separation methodology to improve forecasting accuracy, data mining (CART) on the basis of trip generation was used along with a regression analysis. Findings of the study indicated as follows : First, the analysis of zone characteristics using the CART analysis showed that trip production was under the influence of socio-economic factors (men-women relative proportion, age group (22 to 29)), while trip attraction was affected by land use factors (the relative proportion of business facilities) and the socio-economic factor (the relative proportion of third industry workers). Second, model development by type showed as a result that trip generation coefficients revealed 0.977 to 0.987 (trip/person) for "production" 0.692 to 3.256 (trip/person) for "attraction", which brought the necessity for type classifications. Third, a measured verification was conducted, where "production" and "attraction" showed a higher suitability than the existing model. The trip generation model by type developed in this study, therefore, turned out to be superior to the existing one.

Analyzing the Efficiency of Korean Rail Transit Properties using Data Envelopment Analysis (자료포락분석기법을 이용한 도시철도 운영기관의 효율성 분석)

  • 김민정;김성수
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.113-132
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    • 2003
  • Using nonradial data envelopment analysis(DEA) under assumptions of strong disposability and variable returns scale, this paper annually estimates productive. technical and allocative efficiencies of three publicly-owned rail transit properties which are different in terms of organizational type: Seoul Subway Corporation(SSC, local public corporation), the Seoul Metropolitan Electrified Railways sector (SMESRS) of Korea National Railroad(the national railway operator controlled by the Ministry of Construction and Transportation(MOCT)), and Busan Urban Transit Authority (BUTA, the national authority controlled by MOCT). Using the estimation results of Tobit regression analysis. the paper next computes their true productive, true technical and true allocative efficiencies, which reflect only the impacts of internal factors such as production activity by removing the impacts of external factors such as an organizational type and a track utilization rate. And the paper also computes an organizational efficiency and annually gross efficiencies for each property. The paper then conceptualized that the property produces a single output(car-kilometers) using four inputs(labor, electricity, car & maintenance and track) and uses unbalanced panel data consisted of annual observations on SSC, SMESRS and BUTA. The results obtained from DEA show that, on an average, SSC is the most efficient property on the productive and allocative sides, while SMESRS is the most technically-efficient one. On the other hand. BUTA is the most efficient one on the truly-productive and allocative sides, while SMESRS on the truly-technical side. Another important result is that the differences in true efficiency estimates among the three properties are considerably smaller than those in efficiency estimates. Besides. the most cost-efficient organizational type appears to be a local public corporation represented by SSC, which is also the most grossly-efficient property. These results suggest that a measure to sort out the impacts of external factors on the efficiency of rail transit properties is required to assess fairly it, and that a measure to restructure (establish) an existing(a new) rail transit property into a local public corporation(or authority) is required to improve its cost efficiency.

Characteristics of Pollution Loading from Kyongan Stream Watershed by BASINS/SWAT. (BASINS/SWAT 모델을 이용한 경안천 유역의 오염부하 배출 특성)

  • Jang, Jae-Ho;Yoon, Chun-Gyeong;Jung, Kwang-Wook;Lee, Sae-Bom
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.200-211
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    • 2009
  • A mathematical modeling program called Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) developed by USDA was applied to Kyongan stream watershed. It was run under BASINS (Better Assessment Science for Integrating point and Non-point Sources) program, and the model was calibrated and validated using KTMDL monitoring data of 2004${\sim}$2008. The model efficiency of flow ranged from very good to fair in comparison between simulated and observed data and it was good in the water quality parameters like flow range. The model reliability and performance were within the expectation considering complexity of the watershed and pollutant sources. The results of pollutant loads estimation as yearly (2004${\sim}$2008), pollutant loadings from 2006 were higher than rest of year caused by high precipitation and flow. Average non-point source (NPS) pollution rates were 30.4%, 45.3%, 28.1% for SS, TN and TP respectably. The NPS pollutant loading for SS, TN and TP during the monsoon rainy season (June to September) was about 61.8${\sim}$88.7% of total NPS pollutant loading, and flow volume was also in a similar range. SS concentration depended on precipitation and pollution loading patterns, but TN and TP concentration was not necessarily high during the rainy season, and showed a decreasing trend with increasing water flow. SWAT based on BASINS was applied to the Kyongan stream watershed successfully without difficulty, and it was found that the model could be used conveniently to assess watershed characteristics and to estimate pollutant loading including point and non-point sources in watershed scale.

Estimation of Precipitable Water from the GMS-5 Split Window Data (GMS-5 Split Window 자료를 이용한 가강수량 산출)

  • 손승희;정효상;김금란;이정환
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.53-68
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    • 1998
  • Observation of hydrometeors' behavior in the atmosphere is important to understand weather and climate. By conventional observations, we can get the distribution of water vapor at limited number of points on the earth. In this study, the precipitable water has been estimated from the split window channel data on GMS-5 based upon the technique developed by Chesters et al.(1983). To retrieve the precipitable water, water vapor absorption parameter depending on filter function of sensor has been derived using the regression analysis between the split window channel data and the radiosonde data observed at Osan, Pohang, Kwangiu and Cheju staions for 4 months. The air temperature of 700 hPa from the Global Spectral Model of Korea Meteorological Administration (GSM/KMA) has been used as mean air temperature for single layer radiation model. The retrieved precipitable water for the period from August 1996 through December 1996 are compared to radiosonde data. It is shown that the root mean square differences between radiosonde observations and the GMS-5 retrievals range from 0.65 g/$cm^2$ to 1.09 g/$cm^2$ with correlation coefficient of 0.46 on hourly basis. The monthly distribution of precipitable water from GMS-5 shows almost good representation in large scale. Precipitable water is produced 4 times a day at Korea Meteorological Administration in the form of grid point data with 0.5 degree lat./lon. resolution. The data can be used in the objective analysis for numerical weather prediction and to increase the accuracy of humidity analysis especially under clear sky condition. And also, the data is a useful complement to existing data set for climatological research. But it is necessary to get higher correlation between radiosonde observations and the GMS-5 retrievals for operational applications.

Time Change in Spatial Distributions of Light Interception and Photosynthetic Rate of Paprika Estimated by Ray-tracing Simulation (광 추적 시뮬레이션에 의한 시간 별 파프리카의 수광 및 광합성 속도 분포 예측)

  • Kang, Woo Hyun;Hwang, Inha;Jung, Dae Ho;Kim, Dongpil;Kim, Jaewoo;Kim, Jin Hyun;Park, Kyoung Sub;Son, Jung Eek
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.279-285
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    • 2019
  • To estimate daily canopy photosynthesis, accurate estimation of canopy light interception according to a daily solar position is needed. However, this process needs a lot of cost, time, manpower, and difficulty when measuring manually. Various modeling approaches have been applied so far, but it was difficult to accurately estimate light interception by conventional methods. The objective of this study is to estimate the spatial distributions of light interception and photosynthetic rate of paprika with time by using 3D-scanned plant models and optical simulation. Structural models of greenhouse paprika were constructed with a portable 3D scanner. To investigate the change in canopy light interception by surrounding plants, the 3D paprika models were arranged at $1{\times}1$ and $9{\times}9$ isotropic forms with a distance of 60 cm between plants. The light interception was obtained by optical simulation, and the photosynthetic rate was calculated by a rectangular hyperbola model. The spatial distributions of canopy light interception of the 3D paprika model showed different patterns with solar altitude at 9:00, 12:00, and 15:00. The total canopy light interception decreased with an increase of surrounding plants like an arrangement of $9{\times}9$, and the decreasing rate was lowest at 12:00. The canopy photosynthetic rate showed a similar tendency with the canopy light interception, but its decreasing rate was lower than that of the light interception due to the saturation of photosynthetic rate of upper leaves of the plants. In this study, by using the 3D-scanned plant model and optical simulation, it was possible to analyze the light interception and photosynthesis of plant canopy under various conditions, and it can be an effective way to estimate accurate light interception and photosynthesis of plants.

A Study on the Design of the Grid-Cell Assessment System for the Optimal Location of Offshore Wind Farms (해상풍력발전단지의 최적 위치 선정을 위한 Grid-cell 평가 시스템 개념 설계)

  • Lee, Bo-Kyeong;Cho, Ik-Soon;Kim, Dae-Hae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.24 no.7
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    • pp.848-857
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    • 2018
  • Recently, around the world, active development of new renewable energy sources including solar power, waves, and fuel cells, etc. has taken place. Particularly, floating offshore wind farms have been developed for saving costs through large scale production, using high-quality wind power and minimizing noise damage in the ocean area. The development of floating wind farms requires an evaluation of the Maritime Safety Audit Scheme under the Maritime Safety Act in Korea. Floating wind farms shall be assessed by applying the line and area concept for systematic development, management and utilization of specified sea water. The development of appropriate evaluation methods and standards is also required. In this study, proper standards for marine traffic surveys and assessments were established and a systemic treatment was studied for assessing marine spatial area. First, a marine traffic data collector using AIS or radar was designed to conduct marine traffic surveys. In addition, assessment methods were proposed such as historical tracks, traffic density and marine traffic pattern analysis applying the line and area concept. Marine traffic density can be evaluated by spatial and temporal means, with an adjusted grid-cell scale. Marine traffic pattern analysis was proposed for assessing ship movement patterns for transit or work in sea areas. Finally, conceptual design of a Marine Traffic and Safety Assessment Solution (MaTSAS) was competed that can be analyzed automatically to collect and assess the marine traffic data. It could be possible to minimize inaccurate estimation due to human errors such as data omission or misprints through automated and systematic collection, analysis and retrieval of marine traffic data. This study could provides reliable assessment results, reflecting the line and area concept, according to sea area usage.

Prediction of Expected Residual Useful Life of Rubble-Mound Breakwaters Using Stochastic Gamma Process (추계학적 감마 확률과정을 이용한 경사제의 기대 잔류유효수명 예측)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.158-169
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    • 2019
  • A probabilistic model that can predict the residual useful lifetime of structure is formulated by using the gamma process which is one of the stochastic processes. The formulated stochastic model can take into account both the sampling uncertainty associated with damages measured up to now and the temporal uncertainty of cumulative damage over time. A method estimating several parameters of stochastic model is additionally proposed by introducing of the least square method and the method of moments, so that the age of a structure, the operational environment, and the evolution of damage with time can be considered. Some features related to the residual useful lifetime are firstly investigated into through the sensitivity analysis on parameters under a simple setting of single damage data measured at the current age. The stochastic model are then applied to the rubble-mound breakwater straightforwardly. The parameters of gamma process can be estimated for several experimental data on the damage processes of armor rocks of rubble-mound breakwater. The expected damage levels over time, which are numerically simulated with the estimated parameters, are in very good agreement with those from the flume testing. It has been found from various numerical calculations that the probabilities exceeding the failure limit are converged to the constraint that the model must be satisfied after lasting for a long time from now. Meanwhile, the expected residual useful lifetimes evaluated from the failure probabilities are seen to be different with respect to the behavior of damage history. As the coefficient of variation of cumulative damage is becoming large, in particular, it has been shown that the expected residual useful lifetimes have significant discrepancies from those of the deterministic regression model. This is mainly due to the effect of sampling and temporal uncertainties associated with damage, by which the first time to failure tends to be widely distributed. Therefore, the stochastic model presented in this paper for predicting the residual useful lifetime of structure can properly implement the probabilistic assessment on current damage state of structure as well as take account of the temporal uncertainty of future cumulative damage.

Investigation of PWR Spent Fuels for the Design of a Deep Geological Repository (심층처분시스템 설계를 위한 경수로 사용후핵연료 현황 분석)

  • Cho, Dong-Keun;Kim, Jungwoo;Kim, In-Young;Lee, Jong-Youl
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.339-346
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    • 2019
  • Based on the $8^{th}$ Basic Plan for Electric Power Demand and Supply, an estimation has been made for inventories and characteristics of spent fuel (SF) to be generated from existing and planned nuclear power plants. The characteristics under consideration in this study are dimensions, fuel array, $^{235}U$ enrichment, discharge burnup, and cooling time for each fuel assembly. These are essentially needed for designing a disposal facility for SFs. It appears that the anticipated quantity by the end of 2082 is about 62,500 assemblies for PWR SFs. The inventories of Westinghouse-type and Korean-type SFs were revealed to be 60% and 40%, respectively as of the end of 2018. The proportion of SFs with initial $^{235}U$ enrichment below 4.5 weight percent (wt%) was shown to be approximately 90% in total as of the end of 2018. As of 2077, more than 97% of SFs generated from Westinghouse-type nuclear reactors were shown to have cooling time of over 50 years. As of 2125, more than 98% of SFs generated from Korean-type nuclear reactors were shown to have cooling time of over 45 years. Based on these results, for the efficient design of a disposal system, it is reasonable to adopt two types of reference spent fuel. SF of KSFA with $^{235}U$ enrichment of 4.5 wt%, discharge burnup of 55 GWd/tU, and cooling time of 50 years was determined as reference fuel for Westinghouse-type SFs; SF of PLUS7 with $^{235}U$ enrichment of 4.5 wt%, discharge burnup of 55 GWd/tU, and cooling time of 45 years was determined as reference fuel for Korean-type SFs.

Estimation of freeze damage risk according to developmental stage of fruit flower buds in spring (봄철 과수 꽃눈 발육 수준에 따른 저온해 위험도 산정)

  • Kim, Jin-Hee;Kim, Dae-jun;Kim, Soo-ock;Yun, Eun-jeong;Ju, Okjung;Park, Jong Sun;Shin, Yong Soon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.55-64
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    • 2019
  • The flowering seasons can be advanced due to climate change that would cause an abnormally warm winter. Such warm winter would increase the frequency of crop damages resulted from sudden occurrences of low temperature before and after the vegetative growth stages, e.g., the period from germination to flowering. The degree and pattern of freezing damage would differ by the development stage of each individual fruit tree even in an orchard. A critical temperature, e.g., killing temperature, has been used to predict freeze damage by low-temperature conditions under the assumption that such damage would be associated with the development stage of a fruit flower bud. However, it would be challenging to apply the critical temperature to a region where spatial variation in temperature would be considerably high. In the present study, a phenological model was used to estimate major bud development stages, which would be useful for prediction of regional risks for the freeze damages. We also derived a linear function to calculate a probabilistic freeze risk in spring, which can quantitatively evaluate the risk level based solely on forecasted weather data. We calculated the dates of freeze damage occurrences and spatial risk distribution according to main production areas by applying the spring freeze risk function to apple, peach, and pear crops in 2018. It was predicted that the most extensive low-temperature associated freeze damage could have occurred on April 8. It was also found that the risk function was useful to identify the main production areas where the greatest damage to a given crop could occur. These results suggest that the freezing damage associated with the occurrence of low-temperature events could decrease providing early warning for growers to respond abnormal weather conditions for their farm.