• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty-propagation

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Analysis of Tsunami Characteristics of Korea Southern Coast Using a Hypothetical Scenario (가상시나리오에 따른 남해안 지진해일 특성 연구)

  • Bumshick Shin;Dong-Seog Kim;Dong-Hwan Kim;Sang-Yeop Lee;Si-Bum Jo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.80-86
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    • 2024
  • Large-scale earthquakes are occurring globally, especially in the South Asian crust, which is experiencing a state of tension in the aftermath of the 2011 East Japan Earthquake. Uncertainty and fear regarding the possibility of further seismic activity in the near future have been on the rise in the region. The National Disaster Management Research Institute has previously studied and analyzed the overflow characteristics of a tsunami and the rate of flood forecasting through tsunami numerical simulations of the East Sea of South Korea. However, there is currently a significant lack of research on the Southern Coast tsunamis compared to the East Coast. On the Southern Coast, the tidal difference is between 1~4 m, and the impact of the tides is hard to ignore. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the impact of the tide propagation characteristics on the tsunami. Occurrence regions that may cradle tsunamis that affect the southern coast region are the Ryukyu Island and Nankai Trough, which are active seafloor fault zones. The Southern Coast has not experienced direct damage from tsunamis before, but since the possibility is always present, further research is required to prepare precautionary measures in the face of a potential event. Therefore, this study numerically simulated a hypothetical tsunami scenario that could impact the southern coast of South Korea. In addition, the tidal wave propagation characteristics that emerge at the shore due to tide and tsunami interactions will be analyzed. This study will be used to prepare for tsunamis that might occur on the southern coast through tsunami hazard and risk analysis.

Evaluation of Synchronization Performance with PTP (정밀 시각 프로토콜 동기 성능 평가)

  • Lee, Young-Kyu;Yang, Sung-Hoon;Lee, Chang-Bok;Lee, Jong-Goo;Park, Young-Mi;Lee, Moon-Seok
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.669-675
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, we described the investigated theoretical time synchronization performances and experiment results obtained by commercially provided PTP (Precise Time Protocol) modules when the time of a slave clock is synchronized to the master clock. In the case of the theoretical performance analysis, we investigated 3 types of clock levels such as Crystal Oscillator (XO), TCXO (Temperature Compensated XO) and OCXO (Oven Controlled XO). From the analysis, it was observed that the synchronization performance is greatly influenced by the synchronization period and the required performance under 1 us can be achieved by using XO level clocks when the synchronization period is less than 2 seconds and the uncertainty of the propagation delay is under 100 ns. For the experiments using commercial PTP modules, the synchronization performance was investigated for direct, through 1 hub and through 2 hubs connections between the master clock and the slave clock. From the experiment results, we observed that time synchronization under 90 ns with 1,000 seconds observation interval can be achieved in the case of direct connection.

Robust frame synchronization algorithm in time-varying underwater acoustic communication channel (수중 음향통신에서 채널 시변동성에 강인한 프레임 동기 알고리즘)

  • Ko, Seokjun;Kim, Wan-Jin
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.8-15
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, we propose a frame synchronization algorithm for robust to the combined effects of large Doppler fluctuations and extended, time-varying multipath in the underwater acoustic communication. From the algorithm, we can recover a high timing error which is occurred from an acoustic propagation delay and uncertainty of oscillator between transmitter and receiver. In order to verify the performance of the synchronization algorithm, the lake trial results are used. The lake experiments are performed in a Gyeongcheonho located in Mungyeong-si, Gyeongsangbuk-do. We can see that the start position of frame is adjusted after the frame synchronization while the receiver moving.

Sensitivity Analysis According to Fault Parameters for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Curves (단층 파라미터에 따른 확률론적 지진해일 재해곡선의 민감도 분석)

  • Jho, Myeong Hwan;Kim, Gun Hyeong;Yoon, Sung Bum
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.368-378
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    • 2019
  • Logic trees for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment include numerous variables to take various uncertainty on earthquake generation into consideration. Results from the hazard assessment vary in different way as more variables are considered in the logic tree. This study is conducted to estimate the effects of various scaling laws and fault parameters on tsunami hazard at the nearshore of Busan. Active fault parameters, such as strike angle, dip angle and asperity, are adjusted in the modelling of tsunami propagation, and the numerical results are used in the sensitivity analysis. The influence of strike angle to tsunami hazard is not as much significant as it is expected, instead, dip angle and asperity show a considerable impact to tsunami hazard assessment. It is shown that the dip angle and the asperity which determine the initial wave form are more important than the strike angle for the assessment of tsunami hazard in the East Sea.

Uncertainty Propagation and Quantification in Climate Change Impact Assessment for Hydrology (수자원분야 기후변화 영향평가에서의 불확실성 전파와 정량화)

  • Lee, Jae-Kyoung;Kim, Young-Oh
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.15-15
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    • 2015
  • 기존 기후변화 영향평가 불확실성 연구들은 거의 대부분 GCM의 불확실성이 가장 크다고 결론내리고 있으나, ES 불확실성과의 정량적 비교는 하지 못했으며, 기존 접근방법은 민감도 분석 수준에 머무르고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 기후변화 영향평가 각 단계별 불확실성을 포괄적으로 정량화하고 수행단계별 불확실성의 전파정도를 추정할 수 있는 새로운 approach를 제안하였다. 첫째, 전체 불확실성, 각 단계별 불확실성 증가 정도, 각 단계별 불확실성의 비율을 제시할 수 있는 새로운 approach를 제안하였다. 또한 불확실성을 정량적으로 추정할 수 있는 방법으로 maximum entropy(이하 ME)를 선정하였으며, 이를 본 연구에서 제시한 approach에서 적용성을 살펴보았다. 둘째, 본 연구에서는 기후변화 영향평가 불확실성 단계별 정량화를 위해 2개 배출시나리오, 4개 GCM 시나리오, 2개 상세화기법, 2개 수문모형을 사용하여 기본적 기후변화 영향평가 단계를 모두 수행하였다. 기존 approach에서는 GCMs의 변화율(89.34)이 가장 커 GCMs의 불확실성이 가장 큰 것으로 나타났으나 제시한 approach에서는 배출시나리오의 불확실성이 전체 대비 58.66 %로 기후변화 영향평가에서 가장 큰 불확실성 발생 원인으로 파악되었다. 모형 불확실성에서는 GCMs의 불확실성(전체 대비 33.57 %)이 가장 높게 나타났다. 또한 배출시나리오의 ME는 3.32, GCMs의 ME는 5.22, 상세화기법의 ME는 5.57, 수문모형의 ME는 5.66으로 단계적으로 불확실성이 증가하였다. 다음으로 유량과 강수를 이용하여 불확실성 정량화를 수행하였으며, 강수를 이용한 불확실성 정량화에서는 유량을 이용한 결과와 다르게 배출시나리오 다음으로 상세화기법의 불확실성이 큰 것으로 나타나 어떤 수문변수에 초점을 두느냐에 따라 불확실성 정량화저감 노력 대상이 달라질 수 있음을 제시하였다. 마지막으로 자연변동성에 의한 불확실성이 기후변화 전체 불확실성의 45.47 % 정도로 나타났으며, 이는 미래 기후변화에 의해 발생하는 불확실성이 과거 자연변동보다 2배 이상으로서, 기후변화에 의한 미래전망의 불확실성이 매우 크게 증가한다는 매우 중요한 결과를 제시하였다.

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Stochastic analysis of the rocking vulnerability of irregular anchored rigid bodies: application to soils of Mexico City

  • Ramos, Salvador;Arredondo, Cesar;Reinoso, Eduardo;Leonardo-Suarez, Miguel;Torres, Marco A.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.71-86
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    • 2021
  • This paper focuses on the development and assessment of the expected damage for the rocking response of rigid anchored blocks, with irregular geometry and non-uniform mass distribution, considering the site conditions and the seismicity of Mexico City. The non-linear behavior of the restrainers is incorporated to evaluate the pure tension and tension-shear failure mechanisms. A probabilistic framework is performed covering a wide range of block sizes, slenderness ratios and eccentricities using physics-based ground motion simulation. In order to incorporate the uncertainties related to the propagation of far-field earthquakes with a significant contribution to the seismic hazard at study sites, it was simulated a set of scenarios using a stochastic summation methods of small-earthquakes records, considered as Empirical Green's Function (EGFs). As Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP), the absolute value of the maximum block rotation normalized by the body slenderness, as a function of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) is adopted. The results show that anchorages are more efficient for blocks with slenderness ratio between two and three, while slenderness above four provide a better stability when they are not restrained. Besides, there is a range of peak intensities where anchored blocks located in soft soils are less vulnerable with respect to those located in firm soils. The procedure used in here allows to take decisions about risk, reliability and resilience assessment of different types of contents, and it is easily adaptable to other seismic environments.

A Prediction of N-value Using Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 N치 예측)

  • Kim, Kwang Myung;Park, Hyoung June;Goo, Tae Hun;Kim, Hyung Chan
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.457-468
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    • 2020
  • Problems arising during pile design works for plant construction, civil and architecture work are mostly come from uncertainty of geotechnical characteristics. In particular, obtaining the N-value measured through the Standard Penetration Test (SPT) is the most important data. However, it is difficult to obtain N-value by drilling investigation throughout the all target area. There are many constraints such as licensing, time, cost, equipment access and residential complaints etc. it is impossible to obtain geotechnical characteristics through drilling investigation within a short bidding period in overseas. The geotechnical characteristics at non-drilling investigation points are usually determined by the engineer's empirical judgment, which can leads to errors in pile design and quantity calculation causing construction delay and cost increase. It would be possible to overcome this problem if N-value could be predicted at the non-drilling investigation points using limited minimum drilling investigation data. This study was conducted to predicted the N-value using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) which one of the Artificial intelligence (AI) method. An Artificial Neural Network treats a limited amount of geotechnical characteristics as a biological logic process, providing more reliable results for input variables. The purpose of this study is to predict N-value at the non-drilling investigation points through patterns which is studied by multi-layer perceptron and error back-propagation algorithms using the minimum geotechnical data. It has been reviewed the reliability of the values that predicted by AI method compared to the measured values, and we were able to confirm the high reliability as a result. To solving geotechnical uncertainty, we will perform sensitivity analysis of input variables to increase learning effect in next steps and it may need some technical update of program. We hope that our study will be helpful to design works in the future.

A Study on the Improvement of Wavefront Sensing Accuracy for Shack-Hartmann Sensors (Shack-Hartmann 센서를 이용한 파면측정의 정확도 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Roh, Kyung-Wan;Uhm, Tae-Kyoung;Kim, Ji-Yeon;Park, Sang-Hoon;Youn, Sung-Kie;Lee, Jun-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Optics and Photonics
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.383-390
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    • 2006
  • The SharkHartmann wavefront sensors are the most popular devices to measure wavefront in the field of adaptive optics. The Shack-Hartmann sensors measure the centroids of spot irradiance distribution formed by each corresponding micro-lens. The centroids are linearly proportional to the local mean slopes of the wavefront defined within the corresponding sub-aperture. The wavefront is then reconstructed from the evaluated local mean slopes. The uncertainty of the Shack-Hartmann sensor is caused by various factors including the detector noise, the limited size of the detector, the magnitude and profile of spot irradiance distribution, etc. This paper investigates the noise propagation in two major centroid evaluation algorithms through computer simulation; 1st order moments of the irradiance algorithms i.e. center of gravity algorithm, and correlation algorithm. First, the center of gravity algorithm is shown to have relatively large dependence on the magnitudes of noises and the shape & size of irradiance sidelobes, whose effects are also shown to be minimized by optimal thresholding. Second, the correlation algorithm is shown to be robust over those effects, while its measurement accuracy is vulnerable to the size variation of the reference spot. The investigation is finally confirmed by experimental measurements of defocus wavefront aberrations using a Shack-Hartmann sensor using those two algorithms.

An Analysis of Intensity Attenuation Characteristics by Physics-based Strong Ground-Motion Simulation (물리적 지진모델링 기반 강지진동 모사를 통한 진도 감쇠 특성 분석)

  • Kim, Su-Kyong;Song, Seok Goo;Kyung, Jai Bok
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.56-67
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    • 2019
  • In this study, we analyzed the intensity attenuation for M 6.0, 6.5, and 7.0 earthquakes using the broadband strong ground motion simulation platform based on the physical seismic modeling developed by the US Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). The location of the earthquake was assumed to be near the epicenter of the 2016 M 5.8 Gyeongju earthquake, but two of the representative US regional models provided by the SCEC strong ground motion simulation platform were used for the propagation model. One is the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) model representing the intraplate region, and the other is the LA Basin model representing the interplate region. Five modeling methodologies are presented in the version 16.5 of the simulation platform, and Song and Exsim models were used in this study. In the analysis, we found that different intensity attenuation patterns can be observed with the same magnitude of earthquakes, especially depending on the region (CEUS vs LA Basin). Given the same magnitude and distance, the instrumental intensity in the CEUS region (intraplate) could be larger by a unit of 2 than that in the LA Basin region (interplate). Given the difference of intensity attenuation patterns observed in the study, it is important to know the regional intensity attenuation characteristics to understand the accurate level of seismic hazard imposed in the Korean Peninsula. This study also shows the level of the uncertainty of intensity attenuation if region specific attenuation characteristics are not considered.

A Symbolic Characteristic of Mimetic Words in Published Cartoon: Focusing on Works of Heo, Young Man (허영만의 작품에서 나타난 효과태의 상징어적 특징과 활용)

  • O, Yul Seok;Yoon, Ki Heon
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.30
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    • pp.169-199
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    • 2013
  • In various directions of cartoon, vertical stroll direction is opposite to the page direction of existing published cartoon with the popularity of webtoon and established new genre. Lots of studies on published cartoon focus on the cut direction by page, but webtoon doesn't have any concept of page. The pivot of cartoon oriented people is changed from paper to computer monitor as times go by, characteristics of media are changed and media is gradually diversified. Like the strengthening of mobile caused by smart phone's popularity, tablet PC's propagation in public education, etc. cartoon is included to the environment of media which is rapidly changed. In this situation, one of cartoon's unchanged important identities can be the direction made by harmony between picture and text. This thesis analyzed symbolic characteristics and effective value of hyogwatae, mimetic words of cartoon, focusing on works of Heo, Young Man. Hyogwatae just delivers not only sound but also shape, feeling, status, etc. and has significant characteristics by invoking the imaginary structure of literature. Strengths of modern Korean, various linguistic expressions and syllabic systems, let people feel minute feeling of language and difference of emotion and remember the memory through the direct and indirect experiences, so it makes it nuance. Because of the characteristics, representative works of Heo, Young Man have commercialization and writer characteristics, have communicated with people for a long time and have plentiful knowledge of Korean cartoon. The characteristics of hyogwatae in Heo, Young Man's cartoon make a lot of effects for the expression and delivery of cartoon more than the general expectation. When conducting the study focusing on the symbolic process of language, uncertainty and vague standard of judgement caused by the wide factors of study on the direction of general cartoon could be endured. And, through the Heo, Young Man's deep analysis on hyogwatae's direction, readers enjoy the process while inferring actually and intellectually between pictures and sentences. In the process, the equipment stimulating imagination more than pictures, effects and dialogues is hyogwatae. It's reader's equipment of active participation and its strength is symbolic structure.