• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty sources

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Preliminary Estimation of National Emission Inventory for the Unintentionally Produced Polychlorinated Biphenyls (국내 부산물 다염화비페닐(PCBs) 배출량 예비 평가)

  • Kim Kyoung-Mi;Cho Kyu-Tak;Lee Jee-Yoon;Lee Jee-Eun;Lee Dong-Soo
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.227-233
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    • 2004
  • The main objectives of this study were to identify from literature review the potential sources and to provide a preliminary national emission inventory for the unintentionally produced polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) (i.e., by - product PCBs). In Korea, fuel combustion, waste combustion, thermal industrial processes, and transportation were identified as potential sources of by -product PCB s. According to the availability of the emission factors and/or activity data, emission inventory could be assessed only for fuel combustion, waste combustion, steel industry, non-ferrous industry, and non-metallurgical industry. The total national emission of by-product PCBs was estimated to be 1087kg for the year 2000. The preliminary estimation further indicated that the steel manufacturing was the single dominant emission category, contributing 93% to the total emission. Of the steel manufacturing processes, the contribution of the electric arc furnace was about 80% of the total emission. Due to high uncertainty associated with both the emission factors and activity statistics, the emission estimates in this study are likely to contain significant errors. However, the results of the present work could serve the first step toward future efforts to establish national source and emission inventories of by-product PCBs.

A pilot study on the radio flux variability of dwarf galaxies

  • Hwang, Ji-Hye;Woo, Jon-Hak;Jung, Taehyun;Chung, Aeree;Trippe, Sascha;Baek, Junhyun;Lee, Taeseok;Park, Dawoo
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.71.1-71.1
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    • 2014
  • The black hole occupation fraction in dwarf galaxies can provide an important clue for understanding the black hole seed formation. As a pilot feasibility study, we performed a KVN radio monitoring campaign over 8 months for 4 dwarf galaxies. Two galaxies (IC10 and NGC1569) are detected at 22 GHz, respectively with 39 mJy, 83 mJy. The measured flux (rms) variability is 13% and 8%, respectively for IC10 and NGC1569, while the mean flux uncertainty is 25% and 12%. Thus, the detection of the radio flux variability is at best marginal. Detecting flux variability of faint sources (i.e., 22 GHz flux < 200 mJy) seems challenging with the KVN single dishes. Combining with the 1.4 GHz flux measurements from the NVSS, we find that these two galaxies have a steep spectrum, supporting that the radio sources are AGNs. Instead of a monitoring, single-epoch multi-band observations can be effective for identifying radio AGNs by providing the constraint of the radio continuum slope.

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Construction of a Distribution Photometer System for Automobile Light Sources (자동차용 광원의 광도분포 측정장치(배광측정기)제작)

  • 김용완;김홍기;이인원;이완순;이상원
    • The Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.53-61
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    • 1996
  • A distribution photometer was constructed to measure the angular distribution of luminous intensity of light sources and the reflected luminance of retroreflectors. This system incorporates a goniometer to rotate test light source(360 degree in yaw rotation and $\pm$30 degree in pictch rotation), a photomultiplier tube as light detector, light projector for retroreflection measurements, and the control and display unit. The ranges of luminous Intensity measurements and observation angles are 0.01~199900 cd and 0.2~1.5 degree respectively. The uncertainty of luminous intensity measurements is $\pm$3%. This paper describes the construction of the distribution photometer and the performance characteristics.

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Hydrogen production in the light of sustainability: A comparative study on the hydrogen production technologies using the sustainability index assessment method

  • Norouzi, Nima
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.1288-1294
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    • 2022
  • Hydrogen as an environmentally friendly energy carrier has received special attention to solving uncertainty about the presence of renewable energy and its dependence on time and weather conditions. This material can be prepared from different sources and in various ways. In previous studies, fossil fuels have been used in hydrogen production, but due to several limitations, especially the limitation of the access to this material in the not-too-distant future and the great problem of greenhouse gas emissions during hydrogen production methods. New methods based on renewable and green energy sources as energy drivers of hydrogen production have been considered. In these methods, water or biomass materials are used as the raw material for hydrogen production. In this article, after a brief review of different hydrogen production methods concerning the required raw material, these methods are examined and ranked from different aspects of economic, social, environmental, and energy and exergy analysis sustainability. In the following, the current position of hydrogen production is discussed. Finally, according to the introduced methods, their advantages, and disadvantages, solar electrolysis as a method of hydrogen production on a small scale and hydrogen production by thermochemical method on a large scale are introduced as the preferred methods.

New Eruptive YSOs from SPICY and WISE

  • Carlos Contreras Pena;Mizna Ashraf;Jeong-Eun Lee;Gregory Herczeg;Phil Lucas;Zhen Guo;Doug Johnstone;Ho-Gyu Lee;Jessy Jose
    • Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.253-262
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    • 2023
  • This work presents four high-amplitude variable YSOs (≃3 mag at near- or mid-IR wavelengths) arising from the SPICY catalog. Three outbursts show a duration that is longer than 1 year, and are still ongoing. And additional YSO brightened over the last two epochs of NEOWISE observations and the duration of the outburst is thus unclear. Analysis of the spectra of the four sources confirms them as new members of the eruptive variable class. We find two YSOs that can be firmly classified as bona fide FUors and one object that falls in the V1647 Ori-like class. Given the uncertainty in the duration of its outburst, an additional YSO can only be classified as a candidate FUor. Continued monitoring and follow-up of these particular sources is important to better understand the accretion process of YSOs.

Portfolio Analysis on the New Power Generation Sources of the Sixth Basic Plan for Long Term Electricity Demand and Supply (포트폴리오 이론을 활용한 제6차 전력수급기본계획의 신규전원구성 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Juhan;Kim, Jinsoo
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.583-615
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    • 2014
  • Including the rolling black out in 2011, Korea has suffered from rapid increase of electricity consumption and demand forecasting failure for last five years. In addition, because of the Fukushima disaster, high fuel prices, and introduction of new generation sources such as renewables, the uncertainty on a power supply strategy increases. Consequently, a stable power supply becomes the new agenda and a revisino of strategy for new power generation sources is needed. In the light of this, we appraises the sixth basic plan for long term electricity demand and supply considering the changes of foreign and domestic conditions. We also simulate a strategy for the new power generation sources using a portfolio analysis method. As results, a diversity of power generation sources will increase and the share of renewable power generation will be surged on the assumptions of a cost reduction of renewable power sources and an increase of fuel costs. Particularly, on the range of a risk level(standard deviation) from 0.06 and 0.09, the efficient frontier has the most various power sources. Besides, the existing power plan is not efficient so that an improvement is needed. Lastly, the development of an electricity storage system and energy management system is necessary to make a stable and efficient power supply condition.

A Study on the dose distribution produced by $^{32}$ P source form in treatment for inhibiting restenosis of coronary artery (관상동맥 재협착 방지를 위한 치료에서 $^{32}$ P 핵종의 선원 형태에 따른 선량분포에 관한 연구)

  • 김경화;김영미;박경배
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 1999
  • In this study, the dose distributions of a $^{32}$ p uniform cylindrical volume source and a surface source, a pure $\beta$emitter, were calculated in order to obtain information relevant to the utilization of a balloon catheter and a radioactive stent. The dose distributions of $^{32}$ p were calculated by means of the EGS4 code system. The sources are considered to be distributed uniformly in the volume and on the surface in the form of a cylinder with a radius of 1.5 mm and length of 20 mm. The energy of $\beta$particles emitted is chosen at random in the $\beta$ energy spectrum evaluated by the solution of the Dirac equation for the Coulomb potential. Liquid water is used to simulate the particle transport in the human body. The dose rates in a target at a 0.5mm radial distance from the surface of cylindrical volume and surface source are 12.133 cGy/s per GBq (0.449 cGy/s per mCi, uncertainty: 1.51%) and 24.732 cGy/s per GBq (0.915 cGy/s per mCi, uncertainty: 1.01%), respectively. The dose rates in the two sources decrease with distance in both radial and axial direction. On the basis of the above results, the determined initial activities were 29.69 mCi and 1.2278 $\mu$Ci for the balloon catheter and the radioactive stent using $^{32}$ P isotope, respectively. The total absorbed dose for optimal therapeutic regimen is considered to be 20 Gy and the treatment time in the case of the balloon catheter is less than 3 min. Absorbed doses in targets placed in a radial direction for the two sources were also calculated when it expressed initial activity in a 1 mCi/ml volume activity density for the cylindrical volume source and a 0.1 mCi/cm$^2$ area activity density for the surface source. The absorbed dose distribution around the $^{32}$ P cylindrical source with different size can be easily calculated using our results when the volume activity density and area activity density for the source are known.

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Evaluation of the CALPUFF Model Using Improved Meteorological Fields in Complex Terrain of East Sea Coast (동해안의 복잡지형에서 기상장 개선에 따른 CALPUFF 모델의 평가)

  • Lee, Chong-Bum;Kim, Jea-Chul
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.15-25
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    • 2009
  • Donghae city is one of the most representative cement industrial city in Korea. The area is faced with the East Sea to the East and with high montane region of Tae-Back mountain range to the West. Many pollutant sources of air pollution are located near the coast, but the largest point sources of the region are located at the bottom of the mountain area in Donghae city. The local wind is highly affected by local topography and plays an important role in transport and dispersion of contaminants from the pollution sources. This study was designed to evaluate enhancement of MM5 predictions by using Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA), the SONDE data and the national meteorological station, data only. The alternative meteorological fields predicted with and without FDDA were used to simulate spatial and temporal variations of NOx in combined with Atmospheric Dispersion Models (CALPUFF). For the modeling domain, the alternative meteorological fields with 1.1 km spatial resolution were interpolated to the CALMET with 0.5 km resolution. The vertical layers set to have 35 and 12 layers for MM5 and CALPUFF, respectively. MM5 with the FDDA did not resulted in significant improvement of meteorological field prediction in Donghae region, which is primarily because of complex geography and wind scheme. The result of CALPUFF, however, showed reduction of uncertainty errors by using the interpolation scheme of the actual measurement data.

Method for Calculating the Pollution Load Amount of Agricultural Non-Point Sources Using Land Cover Map (토지피복지도를 활용한 농업비점오염원 오염부하량 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Yu, Jieun;Kim, Yoonji;Sung, Hyun-Chan;Lee, Kyung-il;Choi, Ji-yong;Jeon, Seung-woo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.29 no.12
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    • pp.1249-1260
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    • 2020
  • Non-point source pollutants have characteristics the render them difficult to manage owing to the uncertainty of flow paths. As agricultural non-point sources account for more than 57% of non-point source pollutants, the necessity for management is increasing. This study examines the possibility of utilizing land cover maps to suggest a more appropriate method of setting management priority for agricultural non-point sources in the Daecheong Lake area and draws implications by comparing the results derived using the cadastral map, as mentioned in the TMDL Basic Policy. To define the prioritized areas for management, the pollution load was calculated for each subbasin using the formula from the TMDL technical guidelines. As a result, the difference in the average pollution load between the land cover map and cadastral map ranged from 11.6% to 21% among the subbasins. In almost all subbasins, there were differences in the ranking of management priorities depending on the land information that was used. In addition, it was found that it was reasonable to use the level 3 land cover map to calculate the load generated by the land system for examining the implementation goals and methods of each data and comparing them with satellite images.

Time-series Mapping and Uncertainty Modeling of Environmental Variables: A Case Study of PM10 Concentration Mapping (시계열 환경변수 분포도 작성 및 불확실성 모델링: 미세먼지(PM10) 농도 분포도 작성 사례연구)

  • Park, No-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.249-264
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    • 2011
  • A multi-Gaussian kriging approach extended to space-time domain is presented for uncertainty modeling as well as time-series mapping of environmental variables. Within a multi-Gaussian framework, normal score transformed environmental variables are first decomposed into deterministic trend and stochastic residual components. After local temporal trend models are constructed, the parameters of the models are estimated and interpolated in space. Space-time correlation structures of stationary residual components are quantified using a product-sum space-time variogram model. The ccdf is modeled at all grid locations using this space-time variogram model and space-time kriging. Finally, e-type estimates and conditional variances are computed from the ccdf models for spatial mapping and uncertainty analysis, respectively. The proposed approach is illustrated through a case of time-series Particulate Matter 10 ($PM_{10}$) concentration mapping in Incheon Metropolitan city using monthly $PM_{10}$ concentrations at 13 stations for 3 years. It is shown that the proposed approach would generate reliable time-series $PM_{10}$ concentration maps with less mean bias and better prediction capability, compared to conventional spatial-only ordinary kriging. It is also demonstrated that the conditional variances and the probability exceeding a certain thresholding value would be useful information sources for interpretation.