• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty management

Search Result 1,213, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

Establishment of Crowd Management Safety Measures Based on Crowd Density Risk Simulation (군중 밀집 위험도 시뮬레이션 기반의 인파 관리 안전대책 수립)

  • Hyuncheol Kim;Hyungjun Im;Seunghyun Lee;Youngbeom Ju;Soonjo Kwon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
    • /
    • v.38 no.2
    • /
    • pp.96-103
    • /
    • 2023
  • Generally, human stampedes and crowd collapses occur when people press against each other, causing falls that may result in death or injury. Particularly, crowd accidents have become increasingly common since the 1990s, with an average of 380 deaths annually. For instance, in Korea, a stampede occurred during the Itaewon Halloween festival on October 29, 2022, when several people crowded onto a narrow, downhill road, which was 45 meters long and between 3.2 and 4 meters wide. Precisely, this stampede was primarily due to the excessive number of people relative to the road size. Essentially, stampedes can occur anywhere and at any time, not just at events, but also in other places where large crowds gather. More specifically, the likelihood of accidents increases when the crowd density exceeds a turbulence threshold of 5-6 /m2. Meanwhile, festivals and events, which have become more frequent and are promoted through social media, garner people from near and far to a specific location. Besides, as cities grow, the number of people gathering in one place increases. While stampedes are rare, their impact is significant, and the uncertainty associated with them is high. Currently, there is no scientific system to analyze the risk of stampedes due to crowd concentration. Consequently, to prevent such accidents, it is essential to prepare for crowd disasters that reflect social changes and regional characteristics. Hence, this study proposes using digital topographic maps and crowd-density risk simulations to develop a 3D model of the region. Specifically, the crowd density simulation allows for an analysis of the density of people walking along specific paths, which enables the prediction of danger areas and the risk of crowding. By using the simulation method in this study, it is anticipated that safety measures can be rationally established for specific situations, such as local festivals, and preparations may be made for crowd accidents in downtown areas.

A Conceptual Approach for the Effects of COVID-19 on Digital Transformation

  • Fu, Jia;Kim, Injai
    • The Journal of Information Systems
    • /
    • v.32 no.4
    • /
    • pp.211-227
    • /
    • 2023
  • Purpose In the contemporary landscape, marked by the enduring impact of COVID-19 and the recent disruptions stemming from the conflict in Ukraine, the purpose of this study is to navigate the era characterized by pervasive risk and uncertainty. Specifically, the study aims to dissect the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on digital transformation, exploring the factors influencing this process and considering the multifaceted dynamics at play. The focus extends to the post-COVID-19 landscape, scrutinizing the implications and meanings of digital transformation both before and after the pandemic. Additionally, the study delves into future digital trends, with particular attention to climate and environmental issues, emphasizing corporate responsibilities in averting crises similar to COVID-19. The overarching goal is to provide a holistic perspective, shedding light on both positive and negative facets of digital transformation, and advocating for regulatory enhancements and legal frameworks conducive to a balanced and resilient digital future. Design/methodology/approach This study employs a comprehensive approach to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on digital transformation. It considers various facets, such as smart devices reshaping daily routines, transformative changes in corporate ecosystems, and the adaptation of government institutions to the digital era within the broader context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The analysis extends to the post-COVID-19 landscape, examining the implications and meanings of digital transformation. Future digital trends, especially those related to climate and environmental issues, are prognosticated. The methodology involves a proactive exploration of challenges associated with digital transformation, aiming to advocate for regulatory enhancements and legal frameworks that contribute to a balanced and resilient digital future. Findings The findings of this study reveal that the digital economy has gained momentum, accelerated by the proliferation of non-face-to-face industries in response to social distancing imperatives during the COVID-19 pandemic. Digital transformation, both preceding and succeeding the onset of the pandemic, has precipitated noteworthy shifts in various aspects of daily life. However, challenges persist, and the study highlights factors that either bolster or hinder the transformative process. In the post-COVID-19 era, corporate responsibilities in averting crises, particularly those resembling the pandemic, take center stage. The study emphasizes the need for a holistic perspective, acknowledging both positive and negative facets of digital transformation. Additionally, it calls for proactive measures, including regulatory enhancements and legal frameworks, to ensure a balanced and resilient digital future.

Assessing the Impact of 'Marine Invasive and Harmful Species': A Semi-Quantitative Tool and Protocol for Environmental and Socio-Economic Evaluation ('해양교란유해종'의 영향 평가: 환경 및 사회경제적 평가를 위한 준정량 도구 및 프로토콜)

  • KWANG YOUNG KIM
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
    • /
    • v.29 no.2
    • /
    • pp.116-138
    • /
    • 2024
  • This study presents a new tool and protocol to assess the impact of 'Marine Invasive and Harmful Species' (MIHS) on marine environments and socio-economic aspects. It addresses shortcomings in the Marine Ecosystems Conservation and Management Act in South Korea by proposing an impact assessment framework divided into marine environmental and socio-economic groups. Six distinct evaluation categories are included in each group, and a semi-quantitative five-step scale is utilized to provide a flexible approach, addressing a variety of issues from ecological disturbances to effects on health and property. The assessment tool is applied through a systematic five-stage process based on the Delphi method. This approach posters collaboration among a diverse sets of experts and stakeholders, enabling a comprehensive evaluation that incorporates various perspectives. The study also examines strategies to effectively manage uncertainties and improve the consistency of the outcomes. The application of this assessment protocol is expected to be crucial in quantifying the ecological damage caused by MIHS and in identifying management and prevention priorities. The ultimate aim of this evaluation process is to aid decision-makers in developing strategies to preserve the marine ecosystem and mitigate socio-economic impacts.

Successful Technology Investment Strategy in Manufacturing Industry: Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) Approach (제조업에서의 성공적인 기술투자 전략에 대한 연구: 퍼지셋 질적비교분석)

  • Yunmo Koo;Juyeon Ham;Jae-Nam Lee
    • Information Systems Review
    • /
    • v.19 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1-25
    • /
    • 2017
  • Despite high uncertainty on financial return, firms have continuously increased their investment on technologies because they recognize the potential value of technology investment in terms of enhancing operational efficiency and sustaining competitive advantage. Notably, an individual technology investment pattern or strategy within an industry may ultimately lead to significant differences in business performance. Hence, we first categorized technology investment into traditional research and development investment and information technology investment. Afterward, we examined the effects of each pattern with combination of the two types of technology investment on business performance according to firm size and position in the supply chain through fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis. Data collected from 562 manufacturing firms in Korea were used in the analysis. Results showed that large-sized firms were slightly affected with microscopic patterns in their technology investments, whereas small firms were highly affected with their technology investment patterns and their positions in the supply chain. The findings implied that a small enterprise requires an appropriate technology investment strategy to achieve successful business outcomes.

Estimation of evaporation from water surface in Yongdam Dam using the empirical evaporation equaion (경험적 증발량 공식을 적용한 용담댐 시험유역의 수면증발량 추정)

  • Park, Minwoo;Lee, Joo-Heon;Lim, Yong-kyu;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.57 no.2
    • /
    • pp.139-150
    • /
    • 2024
  • This study introduced a method of estimating water surface evaporation using the physical-based Penman combination equation (PCE) and the Penman wind function (PWF). A set of regression parameters in the PCE and PWF models were optimized by using the observed evaporation data for the period 2016-2017 in the Yongdam Dam watershed, and their effectiveness was explored. The estimated evaporation over the Deokyu Mountain flux tower demonstrated that the PWF method appears to have more improved results in terms of correlation, but both methods showed overestimation. Further, the PWF method was applied to the observed hydro-meteorological data on the surface of Yongdam Lake. The PWF method outperformed the PCE in the estimation of water surface evaporation in terms of goodness-of-fit measure and visual evaluation. Future studies will focus on a regionalization process which can be effective in estimating water surface evaporation for the ungauged area by linking hydrometeorological characteristics and regression parameters.

Factors Affecting Intention of Youth Entrepreneurship : A Comparative Study of Mentored vs. Non-Mentored Groups (청년 창업의도에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 연구 : 창업 멘토링 유무의 차이를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Joon-byeong;Lee, Sang-jik
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
    • /
    • v.7 no.1
    • /
    • pp.201-223
    • /
    • 2024
  • This study undertook an empirical analysis to examine the impact of various factors on entrepreneurial intention among young people, with a particular focus on the role of startup mentoring. Employing a survey distributed nationwide, data from 250 valid respondents were subjected to structural equation modeling to investigate these dynamics. The analysis uncovered that workplace stress, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control positively influence the entrepreneurial intentions of youth. Meanwhile, technological constraints negatively affected these intentions. The study did not explore the potential effects of future uncertainty and the burden of failure. Significantly, it was found that startup mentoring plays a crucial role in mitigating the negative impacts that may deter young individuals from pursuing entrepreneurship. Mentoring was instrumental in reducing negative influences, thereby fostering a more conducive environment for entrepreneurial ambition. By integrating the Push-Pull-Mooring (PPM) and Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) models, this research not only validates these frameworks within the context of youth entrepreneurship but also underscores the essential function of startup mentoring in enhancing entrepreneurial intentions. The insights from this study highlight the importance of mentoring programs in nurturing the entrepreneurial spirit among the youth, suggesting that targeted mentoring support can play a pivotal role in overcoming barriers to entrepreneurship.

The Application of Operations Research to Librarianship : Some Research Directions (운영연구(OR)의 도서관응용 -그 몇가지 잠재적응용분야에 대하여-)

  • Choi Sung Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
    • /
    • v.4
    • /
    • pp.43-71
    • /
    • 1975
  • Operations research has developed rapidly since its origins in World War II. Practitioners of O. R. have contributed to almost every aspect of government and business. More recently, a number of operations researchers have turned their attention to library and information systems, and the author believes that significant research has resulted. It is the purpose of this essay to introduce the library audience to some of these accomplishments, to present some of the author's hypotheses on the subject of library management to which he belives O. R. has great potential, and to suggest some future research directions. Some problem areas in librianship where O. R. may play a part have been discussed and are summarized below. (1) Library location. It is usually necessary to make balance between accessibility and cost In location problems. Many mathematical methods are available for identifying the optimal locations once the balance between these two criteria has been decided. The major difficulties lie in relating cost to size and in taking future change into account when discriminating possible solutions. (2) Planning new facilities. Standard approaches to using mathematical models for simple investment decisions are well established. If the problem is one of choosing the most economical way of achieving a certain objective, one may compare th althenatives by using one of the discounted cash flow techniques. In other situations it may be necessary to use of cost-benefit approach. (3) Allocating library resources. In order to allocate the resources to best advantage the librarian needs to know how the effectiveness of the services he offers depends on the way he puts his resources. The O. R. approach to the problems is to construct a model representing effectiveness as a mathematical function of levels of different inputs(e.g., numbers of people in different jobs, acquisitions of different types, physical resources). (4) Long term planning. Resource allocation problems are generally concerned with up to one and a half years ahead. The longer term certainly offers both greater freedom of action and greater uncertainty. Thus it is difficult to generalize about long term planning problems. In other fields, however, O. R. has made a significant contribution to long range planning and it is likely to have one to make in librarianship as well. (5) Public relations. It is generally accepted that actual and potential users are too ignorant both of the range of library services provided and of how to make use of them. How should services be brought to the attention of potential users? The answer seems to lie in obtaining empirical evidence by controlled experiments in which a group of libraries participated. (6) Acquisition policy. In comparing alternative policies for acquisition of materials one needs to know the implications of each service which depends on the stock. Second is the relative importance to be ascribed to each service for each class of user. By reducing the level of the first, formal models will allow the librarian to concentrate his attention upon the value judgements which will be necessary for the second. (7) Loan policy. The approach to choosing between loan policies is much the same as the previous approach. (8) Manpower planning. For large library systems one should consider constructing models which will permit the skills necessary in the future with predictions of the skills that will be available, so as to allow informed decisions. (9) Management information system for libraries. A great deal of data can be available in libraries as a by-product of all recording activities. It is particularly tempting when procedures are computerized to make summary statistics available as a management information system. The values of information to particular decisions that may have to be taken future is best assessed in terms of a model of the relevant problem. (10) Management gaming. One of the most common uses of a management game is as a means of developing staff's to take decisions. The value of such exercises depends upon the validity of the computerized model. If the model were sufficiently simple to take the form of a mathematical equation, decision-makers would probably able to learn adequately from a graph. More complex situations require simulation models. (11) Diagnostics tools. Libraries are sufficiently complex systems that it would be useful to have available simple means of telling whether performance could be regarded as satisfactory which, if it could not, would also provide pointers to what was wrong. (12) Data banks. It would appear to be worth considering establishing a bank for certain types of data. It certain items on questionnaires were to take a standard form, a greater pool of data would de available for various analysis. (13) Effectiveness measures. The meaning of a library performance measure is not readily interpreted. Each measure must itself be assessed in relation to the corresponding measures for earlier periods of time and a standard measure that may be a corresponding measure in another library, the 'norm', the 'best practice', or user expectations.

  • PDF

Consideration of the Accuracy by Variation of Respiration in Real-time Position Management Respiratory Gating System (호흡동조 방사선치료에 사용되고 있는 RPM (Real-time Position Management) Respiratory Gating System의 호흡변화에 따른 정확성에 대한 고찰)

  • Na, Jun Young;Kang, Tae Young;Baek, Geum Mun;Kwon, Gyeong Tae
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
    • /
    • v.25 no.1
    • /
    • pp.49-55
    • /
    • 2013
  • Purpose: Respiratory Gated Radiation Therapy (RGRT) has been carried out using RPM (Real-time Position Management) Respiratory Gating System (version 1.7.5, varian, USA) in Asan Medical Center. This study was to analyze and evaluate the accuracy of Respiratory Gated Radiation Therapy (RGRT) according to variation of respiration. Materials and Methods: Making variation of respiration using Motion Phantom:QUASAR Programmable Respiratory Motion Phantom (Moudus Medical Device Inc. CANADA) able to adjust respiration pattern randomly was varying period, amplitude and baseline by analyze 50 patient's respiration of lung and liver cancer. One of the variations of respiration is baseline shift gradually downward per 0.01 cm, 0.03 cm, 0.05 cm. The other variation of respiration is baseline shift accidently downward per 0.2 cm, 0.4 cm, 0.6 cm, 0.8 cm. Experiments were performed in the same way that is used RPM Respiratory Gating System (phase gating, usually 30~70% gating) in Asan Medical Center. Results: It was all exposed radiation under one of the conditions of baseline shift gradually downward per 0.01 cm, 0.03 cm, 0.05 cm. Under the other condition of baseline shift accidently downward per 0.2 cm, 0.4 cm, 0.6 cm, 0.8 cm equally radiation was exposed. Conclusion: The variations of baseline shifts didn't accurately reflect on phase gating in RPM Respiratory Gating System. This inexactitude makes serious uncertainty in Respiratory Gated Radiation Therapy. So, Must be stabilized breathing of patient before conducting Respiratory Gated Radiation Therapy. also must be monitored breathing of patient in the middle of treatment. If you observe considerable changes of breathing when conducting Respiratory Gated Radiation Therapy. Stopping treatment immediately and then must be need to recheck treatment site using fluoroscopy. If patient's respiration rechecked using fluoroscopy restabilize, it is possible to restart Respiratory Gated Radiation Therapy.

  • PDF

Attitudes of Medical Students' towards End-of-life Care Decision-making (일개 의과대학생의 말기 환자 치료 결정에 대한 태도)

  • Oh, Seung-Min;Cho, Wan-Je;Kim, Jong-Koo;Lee, Hye-Ree;Lee, Duk-Chul;Shim, Jae-Yong
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
    • /
    • v.11 no.3
    • /
    • pp.140-146
    • /
    • 2008
  • Purpose: Sooner of later, end-of-life care decision-making will unfold and be settled during the professional lives of medical students. However, there is prevalent ambiguity and uncertainty between the palliative treatment and euthanasia. We conducted this survey to investigate attitudes of medical students towards end-of-life making decisions, and to find out which factors primarily influenced the attitudes. Methods: A study was conducted among medical students at one university, the Republic of Korea. A written questionnaire was sent to all the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd-year medical students. It presented 5 statements on end-of-life decision-making. Students were asked whether they agreed or disagreed with each statement. Results: The response rate was 74.4%, and 267 questionnaires were analyzed. Percentages of agreement with each statements on Voluntary active euthanasia (VAE), Physician assisted suicide (PAS), Withholding life-sustaining management, Withdrawing life-sustaining management, and Terminal sedation (TS) was 37.1%, 21.7%, 58.4%, 60.3%, and 41.6%, respectively. The grade of students, religious activity, and educational experience were determinant factors. Agreement on each statements was higher in the low religious activity group than in the high religious activity group. Agreement on TS was higher among 3rd year students during their clerkship than among 1st and 2nd year students. Age of students and the experience of dying-people care had no significant influence. Conclusion: In end-of-life decision-making, religious and educational factors influenced medical students' attitudes. Especially, the experience of education during clerkship had significant influence on the attitude. Proper teaching on end-of-life decisions should further be considered during medical students' clerkship.

  • PDF

The Study on the Marine Eco-toxicity and Ecological Risk of Treated Discharge Water from Ballast Water Management System Using Electrolysis (전기분해원리를 이용한 선박평형수관리장치의 배출수에 대한 해양생태독성 및 해양환경위해성에 관한 연구)

  • Shon, M.B.;Son, M.H.;Lee, J.;Son, Y.J.;Lee, G.H.;Moon, C.H.;Kim, Y.S.
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
    • /
    • v.16 no.2
    • /
    • pp.88-101
    • /
    • 2013
  • The International Convention for the Control and Management of Ship's Ballast Water and Sediments was adopted at 2004 and then various BWMS (ballast water management system) have been developed. In this study, WET (whole effluent toxicity) test with algae (diatom) Skeletonema costatum as primary producer, invertebrate (rotifera) Brachionus plicatilis as 1st consumer and fish (olive flounder) Paralichthys olivaceus as predator, chemical analysis and ERA (environmental risk assessment) were conducted to assess the unacceptable effect on marine ecosystem by emitting the discharge water treated with AquaStar$^{TM}$ BWMS using electrolysis as main treatment equipment for removing the marine organisms in the ship's ballast water. The most sensitive test organism on discharge water treated with AquaStar$^{TM}$ BWMS was S. costatum that gave the NOEC value of 25.00%, LOEC value of 50.00% and 72hr-$EC_{50}$ value of 69.97% from WET test result for 20 psu salinity treated discharge water. NOEC and LOEC value of B. plicatilis and P. olivaceus exposed at 20 psu salinity treated discharge water were 50.00% and 100.00%, respectively. In the chemical analysis results, total number of substances produced by AquaStar$^{TM}$ BWMS was 18 which were bromate, 7 volatile halogenated organic compounds, 7 halogenated acetic acids, 3 halogenated acetonitriles and chloropicrin. Eighteen substances did not consider as persistence and bioaccumulative chemicals. Uncertainty of toxic property of 18 substances was high. PECs of 18 substances calculated by MAMPEC model were ranged from $4.58{\times}10^{-4}$ to $4.87{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$, PNECs of them were ranged from $1.6{\times}10^{-2}$ to $3.2{\times}10^2{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$. And, the PEC/PNEC ratio of 18 substances did not exceed 1. Therefore, ERA for produced substances indicate that the discharge water treated with AquaStar$^{TM}$ BWMS does not pose unacceptable effect on marine life. And $EC_{50}$ value of S. costatum on discharge water treated by BWMS using the electrolysis had positive correlation with initial TRO concentration, concentration and kind & level of HAAs.