• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertainty management

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Isotopic Fissile Assay of Spent Fuel in a Lead Slowing-Down Spectrometer System

  • Lee, Yongdeok;Jeon, Juyoung;Park, Changje
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.549-555
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    • 2017
  • A lead slowing-down spectrometer (LSDS) system is under development to analyze isotopic fissile content that is applicable to spent fuel and recycled material. The source neutron mechanism for efficient and effective generation was also determined. The source neutron interacts with a lead medium and produces continuous neutron energy, and this energy generates dominant fission at each fissile, below the unresolved resonance region. From the relationship between the induced fissile fission and the fast fission neutron detection, a mathematical assay model for an isotopic fissile material was set up. The assay model can be expanded for all fissile materials. The correction factor for self-shielding was defined in the fuel assay area. The corrected fission signature provides well-defined fission properties with an increase in the fissile content. The assay procedure was also established. The assay energy range is very important to take into account the prominent fission structure of each fissile material. Fission detection occurred according to the change of the Pu239 weight percent (wt%), but the content of U235 and Pu241 was fixed at 1 wt%. The assay result was obtained with 2~3% uncertainty for Pu239, depending on the amount of Pu239 in the fuel. The results show that LSDS is a very powerful technique to assay the isotopic fissile content in spent fuel and recycled materials for the reuse of fissile materials. Additionally, a LSDS is applicable during the optimum design of spent fuel storage facilities and their management. The isotopic fissile content assay will increase the transparency and credibility of spent fuel storage.

Estimating Irrigation Requirement for Rice Cropping under Flooding Condition using BUDGET Model

  • Seo, Mi-jin;Han, Kyung-Hwa;Zhang, Yong-Seon;Jung, Kang-Ho;Cho, Hee-Rae
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.48 no.4
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    • pp.246-254
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    • 2015
  • This study explored the effect of rainfall pattern and soil characteristics on water management in rice paddy fields, using a soil water balance model, BUDGET. In two sites with different soil textural group, coarse loamy soil (Gangseo series) and fine soil (Hwadong series), respectively, we have monitored daily decrease of water depth, percolation rate, and groundwater table. The observed evapotranspiration (ET) was obtained from differences between water depth decrease and percolation rate. The root mean square difference values between observed and BUDGET-estimated ET ranged between 10% and 20% of the average observed ET. This is comparable to the measurement uncertainty, suggesting that the BUDGET model can provide reliable ET estimation for rice fields. In BUDGET model of this study, irrigation requirement was determined as minimum water need for maintaining water-saturated soil surface, assuming 100 mm of bund height and no lateral loss of water. The model results showed different water balance and irrigation requirement with the different soil profile and indicated that minimum percolation rate by plow pan could determine the irrigation requirement of rice paddy field. For the condition of different rainfall distribution, the results presented different irrigation period and amounts, representing the importance of securing water for irrigation against different rainfall pattern.

A Study on the Risks and Avoidance Strategies of Franchise Food Companies to Entry Chinese Market (국내 외식 프랜차이즈 기업의 중국 시장진출 리스크와 회피전략 연구)

  • Jang, Kwang-Hee
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.65-77
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    • 2019
  • The after China's reform and opening up, the country has been facing the era of material abundance based on its economic power. The Chinese food industry has been growing along with economic growth, high quality, and diversified customer needs. Also, as Chinese people have strong attachment to food, many food franchise companies have been also growing rapidly. As the Chinese government encourages and supports the field of food franchises, so that the quality and quantity of the Chinese restaurant industry have been improved largely. Meanwhile with the support of the Korean government to enter the overseas market, the number of Korean franchise companies are increasing to operate their business in China. Under the influence of Chinese food industrial climate, Korean companies are also in search of global market advancement to China. However, the risks in China are unexpectable, which means that the recent move of China is literally showing rugby action, criticism of operating businesses in China has been climbed up and the domestic SMEs are seriously considering whether to stay or leave. This study investigates the environmental risks of Chinese enterprises, in which the food franchise companies could experience, to manage any risks from entering the Chinese market with uncertainty. Through SWOT analysis and cases, strategies to avoid the risks are suggested for Korean companies to enter the Chinese markets. Therefore, this study researches in the current status of Chinese and Korean restaurants, explores any risks in China in terms of exports to China and market advance, develops strategies to avoid those risks, and provides essential suggestions for entering into Chinese market.

Priority for Developing Emission Factors and Quantitative Assessment in the Forestry Sector (산림부문의 국가온실가스 배출·흡수계수 개발 필요 우선순위 및 정량평가 방법론)

  • Han, Seung Hyun;Lee, Sun Jeoung;Chang, Hanna;Kim, Seongjun;Kim, Raehyun;Jeon, Eui-Chan;Son, Yowhan
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.239-245
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    • 2017
  • This study aimed to suggest priority for developing emission factor (EF) and to develop the methodology of quantitative assessment of EF in the forestry sector. Based on the stock-difference method, 17 kinds of EFs (27 EFs based on forest types) were required to calculate the carbon emission in the forestry sector. Priority for developing EFs followed the standards, which is a development plan by the government agency, importance of carbon stock for greenhouse gas, and EFs by the species. Currently, the most urgent development of EFs was carbon fraction in biomass and carbon stock in dead wood. Meanwhile, the quantitative assessment of EF consisted of 7 categories (5 categories of compulsory and 2 categories of quality evaluation) and 12 verification factors. Category in compulsory verification consisted of administrative document, determination methodology of emission factors, emission characteristic, accuracy of measurement and analysis, and data representative. Category in quality evaluation consisted of data management and uncertainty estimates. Based on the importance of factors in the verification process, each factor was scored separately, however, the score needs to be coordinated by the government agency. These results would help build a reliable and accurate greenhouse gas inventory report of Korea.

A Study on the Quantitative and Evaluation Weights of National Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors in the Mineral Industry (광물산업의 국가온실가스배출계수 정량·평가항목 가중치에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Yoongjoong;Cho, Changsang;Jeon, Eui Chan
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2018
  • "The Framework Act on Low-Carbon Green Growth" specifies the requirements for the development and verification of emission factors for establishing reliable national greenhouse gas statistics. The scope of the regulations covers the development and validation of energy, industrial processes, solvents and other product use, agriculture, land use, land use change and emission and absorption coefficients of the forestry and waste sector as defined in the 1996 IPCC Guideline and GPG 2000, The minerals sector to be covered in this study belongs to industrial processes. As a representative method for quantifying and evaluating GHG emission factors, there are emission grade quality grading and DARS (Data Rating Rating System) in the 'Procedures for Preparing Emission Factor Documents (1997)' reported by US-EPA. However, the above two methods are not specific and comprehensive, and lack the details for accurate emission factor verification. Therefore, there is a need for a method for verifying and quantifying certified greenhouse gas emission factors that reflects characteristics of each industry sector in Korea and accord with IPCC G/L and GHG target management. In this study, we conducted a weighted study on quantitative and evaluation lists of emission factor using questionnaires to develop a more accurate methodology for quantifying national greenhouse gas emission factors in the mineral sector. Quantification and evaluation of emission factor are classified into essential verification and quality evaluation. The essential verifications are : administrative compatibility, method of determining emission factors, emission characteristics, sampling methods and analysis methods, representativeness of data. The quality evaluations consisted of the quality control of the data, the accuracy of the measurement and analysis, the level of uncertainty, not directly affect the emission factor, but consisted of factors that determine data quality.

Performance Evaluation of Rainfall Disaggregation according to Temporal Scale of Rainfall Data (강우자료의 시간해상도에 따른 강우 분해 성능 평가)

  • Lee, Jeonghoon;Jang, Juhyoung;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.345-352
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    • 2018
  • In this study, rainfall data with various temporal scales (3-, 6-, 12-, 24-hr) are disaggregated into 1-hourly rainfall data to evaluate the performance of rainfall disaggregation technique. The rainfall disaggregation technique is based on a database generated by the stochastic point rainfall model, the Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse Model (NSRPM). Performance evaluation is carried out using July rainfall data of Ulsan, Changwon, Busan and Milyang weather stations in Korea. As a result, the rainfall disaggregation technique showed excellent performance that can consider not only the major statistics of rainfall but also the spatial correlation. It also indirectly shows the uncertainty of future climate change scenarios with daily temporal scale. The rainfall disaggregation technique is expected to disaggregate the future climate change scenarios, and to be effective in the future watershed management.

Assessment of variability and uncertainty in bias correction parameters for radar rainfall estimates based on topographical characteristics (지형학적 특성을 고려한 레이더 강수량 편의보정 매개변수의 변동성 및 불확실성 분석)

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong;Ban, Woo-Sik;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.9
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    • pp.589-601
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    • 2019
  • Various applications of radar rainfall data have been actively employed in the field of hydro-meteorology. Since radar rainfall is estimated by using predefined reflectivity-rainfall intensity relationships, they may not have sufficient reproducibility of observations. In this study, a generalized linear model is introduced to better capture the Z-R relationship in the context of bias correction within a Bayesian regression framework. The bias-corrected radar rainfall with the generalized linear model is more accurate than the widely used mean field bias correction method. In addition, we analyzed variability of the bias correction parameters under various geomorphological conditions such as the height of the weather station and the separation distance from the radar. The identified relationship is finally used to derive a regionalized formula which can provide bias correction factors over the entire watershed. It can be concluded that the bias correction parameters and regionalized method obtained from this study could be useful in the field of radar hydrology.

Estimating Risk Interdependency Ratio for Construction Projects: Using Risk Checklist in Pre-construction Phase

  • Kim, Junyoung;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Park, Moonseo;Kwon, Nahyun
    • Architectural research
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.49-57
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    • 2019
  • Risk assessment during pre-construction phase is important due to the uncertainty of the risks that may exist in projects. Risk checklist is a method to systematically classify and organize the risks that have been experienced in the past, and to identify the risk factors that may be present in the future projects. In addition, risk value assessment based on checklists plays a key role in risk management, and various risk assessment researches have been conducted to carry out this systematically. However, previous approaches have limitations in common, this is because risk values are evaluated individually in risk checklists, which ignore interdependencies among risk factors and neglect the emergence of co-occurrence of risks. Hence, when multiple risk factors cooccur, they cannot be far off from the conventional method of summing the total risk value to establish the risk response strategy. Most of risk factors are interdependent and may have multiple effects if occurred than expected. In particular, specific cause can be overlapped if multiple risks co-occur, and this may result in overestimation of the risk response for the future project. Thus, the objective of this research is to propose a model to help decision makers to quantify the risk value reflecting the interdependency during the identification phase using existing risk checklist that is currently being practiced in actual construction projects. The proposed model will provide the guideline to support the prediction and identification of the interdependency of risks in practice. In addition, the better understanding and prediction of the exceeding risk response by co-occurring risks during the risk identification phase for decision makers.

Categorical Prediction and Improvement Plan of Snow Damage Estimation using Random Forest (랜덤포레스트를 이용한 대설피해액에 대한 범주형 예측 및 개선방안 검토)

  • Lee, Hyeong Joo;Chung, Gunhui
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.157-162
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    • 2019
  • Recently, the occurrence of unusual heavy snow and cold are increasing due to the unusual global climate change. In particular, the temperature dropped to minus 69 degrees Celsius in the United States on January 8, 2018. In Korea, on February 17, 2014, the auditorium building in Gyeongju Mauna Resort was collapsed due to the heavy snowfall. Because of the tragic accident many studies on the reduction of snow damage is being conducted, but it is difficult to predict the exact damage due to the lack of historical damage data, and uncertainty of meteorological data due to the long distance between the damaged area and the observatory. Therefore, in this study, available data were collected from factors that are thought to be corresponding to snow damage, and the amount of snow damage was estimated categorically using a random forest. At present, the prediction accuracy was not sufficient due to lack of historical damage data and changes of the design code for green houses. However, if accurate weather data are obtained in the affected areas. the accuracy of estimates would increase enough for being used for be the degree preparedness of disaster management.

Rockfall Behavior with Catchment Area Condition (포집공간 조건에 따른 낙석의 거동)

  • Lee, Jundae;Kwon, Youngcheul;Bae, Wooseok
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-42
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    • 2019
  • Various development works inevitably increase cutting slopes due to land use, and many of trails managed by different authorities are being deteriorated by long-term weathering. Collapse of slopes causes unavoidable damage of property and loss of lives because of its uncertainty and difficulty in predicting its occurrence. In order to overcome the unavoidability, America, Japan, and several European nations analyze the kinetic energy and moving distance when rocks of upper slope move along the inclined plane, via field tests and computerized interpretation of the test results. Also, they are making efforts to develop measures with which the kinetic energy of the rocks moving along the slope is absorbed and fails to reach to specific structures. However, domestic researches just focus on fragmentary prediction of rockfall using existing programs, and there have been few approaches to identify interpretation methods appropriate for domestic cases or determination of parameters. In this context, we in this study defined rockfall types and affecting factors and analyzed effects of parameters using a general-purpose rockfall simulation program to understand principles of rockfall and to estimate effects of various parameters.