• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제46권3호
• /
• pp.299-312
• /
• 2014

An uncertainty propagation methodology based on the Monte Carlo method is applied to PWR nuclear design analysis to assess the impact of nuclear data uncertainties. The importance of the nuclear data uncertainties for $^{235,238}U$, $^{239}Pu$, and the thermal scattering library for hydrogen in water is analyzed. This uncertainty analysis is compared with the design and acceptance criteria to assure the adequacy of bounding estimates in safety margins.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• 제53권6호
• /
• pp.1127-1141
• /
• 2015

The optimum design of liquid column dampers in seismic vibration control considering system parameter uncertainty is usually performed by minimizing the unconditional response of a structure without any consideration to the variation of damper performance due to uncertainty. However, the system so designed may be sensitive to the variations of input system parameters due to uncertainty. The present study is concerned with robust design optimization (RDO) of liquid column vibration absorber (LCVA) considering random system parameters characterizing the primary structure and ground motion model. The RDO is obtained by minimizing the weighted sum of the mean value of the root mean square displacement of the primary structure as well as its standard deviation. A numerical study elucidates the importance of the RDO procedure for design of LCVA system by comparing the RDO results with the results obtained by the conventional stochastic structural optimization procedure and the unconditional response based optimization.

• 정보관리학회지
• /
• 제36권2호
• /
• pp.175-199
• /
• 2019

불확실성이란 정보의 합의나 현존하는 지식 부족으로 인해 명제의 지식이 불완전한 상태를 의미한다. 과학적 지식의 불확실성을 연구하는 학술문헌의 양은 시간이 흐름에 따라 기하급수적으로 증가하고 있으며, 이에 따라 새로운 지식이 발견되고 연구가 발전하고 있다. 이처럼 시간의 흐름은 지식의 불확실성의 패턴을 발견하는데 중요한 요인이 될 수 있음에도 불구하고 기존의 연구들은 불확실성 단어의 단순 출현 빈도를 기반으로 특정 학문 영역에서 불확실성의 특성을 파악해왔다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 구축한 불확실성 단어를 생의학 영역의 불확실성 연구에 적용하여 시간의 흐름에 따른 불확실성의 변화와 패턴을 파악하고자 한다. 시간의 흐름에 따른 생의학 지식의 패턴을 분석하기 위해 대표 개체 페어, 동사 유형, 대표 개체의 패턴을 살펴보았으며 선형회귀 분석을 통해 유의성 검증을 수행했다. 개체 페어 분석에서는 17건 중 7건의 개체 페어가 유의하게 감소하는 패턴을 보였다. 10개의 대표적인 동사 유형은 모두 시간이 흐름에 따라 유의하게 감소했다. 대표 개체의 연도별 상대적 중요도 분석에서는 유의하게 상승과 하강 패턴을 보이는 개체들의 불확실성 증감을 분석했다.

• Journal of Korea Trade
• /
• 제27권5호
• /
• pp.153-166
• /
• 2023

Purpose - This research empirically analyzes the influence of economic policy uncertainty and free trade agreements (FTAs) on bilateral trade volumes between Korea and its trading partners. The study investigates whether fluctuations in the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPUI) for both Korea and its trading partners significantly impact trade volumes and whether the implementation of FTAs mitigates these effects. Design/methodology - The study employs dynamic panel data analysis using the system generalized method of moments (system GMM) estimation method to achieve its research objectives. It utilizes country-month-level panel data, including the EPUI, trade volume between Korea and its trading partner countries, and other pertinent variables. The use of system GMM allows for the control of potential endogeneity issues and the incorporation of country-specific and time-specific effects. Findings - The analysis yields significant results regarding the impact of economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports and imports, particularly before the implementation of FTAs. An increase in the EPUI of trading partners leads to a notable increase in Korea's exports to them. Conversely, an increase in Korea's EPUI negatively affects its imports from trading partners. However, post-FTA implementation, the influence of each country's EPUI on trade volume is neutralized, with no significant difference observed. Originality/value - This research contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence on the interaction effects between economic policy uncertainty and FTAs on bilateral trade volumes. The study's uniqueness lies in its examination of how FTAs mitigate the impact of economic uncertainty on trade relations between countries. The findings underscore the importance of trade agreements as mechanisms to address economic risks and promote international trade relations. In a world where global market uncertainties persist, these insights can aid policymakers in Korea and other countries in enhancing their trade cooperation strategies and navigating challenges posed by evolving economic landscapes.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국전산구조공학회 2008년도 정기 학술대회
• /
• pp.387-390
• /
• 2008

The importance of the life cycle cost analysis for construction projects of bridge has been recognized over the last decades. Accordingly, theoretical models, guidelines, and supporting softwares have been developed for the life cycle cost analysis of bridges. However, it is difficult to predict life cycle cost considering uncertainties precisely. This paper presents methodology for optimal design of substructure for a steel box bridge. Total life cycle cost for the service life is calculated as sum of initial cost, damage cost considering uncertainty, maintenance cost, repair and rehabilitation cost. The optimization method is applied to design of a bridge substructure with minimal cost, in which the objective function is set to life cycle cost and constraints are formulated on the basis of Korean Bridge Design Specification. Initial cost is calculated based on standard costs of the Korea Construction Price Index and damage cost on the damage probabilities to consider the uncertainty of load and resistance. An advanced first-order second moment method is used as a practical tool for reliability analysis using damage probability. Maintenance cost and cycle is determined by a stochastic method and user cost includes traffic operation costs and time delay costs.

• Smart Structures and Systems
• /
• 제22권4호
• /
• pp.399-411
• /
• 2018

The difficulty in modeling complex nonlinear structures lies in the presence of significant sources of uncertainties mainly attributed to sudden changes in the structure's behavior caused by regular aging factors or extreme events. Quantifying these uncertainties and accurately representing them within the complex mathematical framework of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) are significantly essential for system identification and damage detection purposes. This study highlights the importance of uncertainty quantification in SHM frameworks, and presents a comparative analysis between intrusive and non-intrusive techniques in quantifying uncertainties for SHM purposes through two different variations of the Kalman Filter (KF) method, the Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the Polynomial Chaos Kalman Filter (PCKF). The comparative analysis is based on a numerical example that consists of a four degrees-of-freedom (DOF) system, comprising Bouc-Wen hysteretic behavior and subjected to El-Centro earthquake excitation. The comparison is based on the ability of each technique to quantify the different sources of uncertainty for SHM purposes and to accurately approximate the system state and parameters when compared to the true state with the least computational burden. While the results show that both filters are able to locate the damage in space and time and to accurately estimate the system responses and unknown parameters, the computational cost of PCKF is shown to be less than that of EnKF for a similar level of numerical accuracy.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
• /
• 제33권4호
• /
• pp.295-304
• /
• 2017

This study compared and analyzed the construction of a land use change matrix for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) land use, land use change, and forestry area (LULUCF). We used National Forest Inventory (NFI) permanent sample plots (with a sample intensity of 4 km) and permanent sample plots with 500 m sampling intensity. The land use change matrix was formed using the point sampling method, Level-2 Land Cover Maps, and forest aerial photographs (3rd and 4th series). The land use change matrix using the land cover map indicated that the annual change in area was the highest for forests and cropland; the cropland area decreased over time. We evaluated the uncertainty of the land use change matrix. Our results indicated that the forest land use, which had the most sampling, had the lowest uncertainty, while the grassland and wetlands had the highest uncertainty and the least sampling. The uncertainty was higher for the 4 km sampling intensity than for the 500 m sampling intensity, which indicates the importance of selecting the appropriate sample size when constructing a national land use change matrix.

• 무역학회지
• /
• 제47권1호
• /
• pp.25-42
• /
• 2022

This study identified consumers' shopping behavior in live streaming commerce. To this end, this study put the uncertainty issue of live shopping and the transfer of trust at the center of the discussion. The verification of the research model resulted in the following conclusions. First, reduced uncertainty in live shopping was a factor in increasing the level of involvement and attachment in the service. These results showed that resolving uncertainty in newly introduced services is a key factor in determining users' positive attitudes. Second, the trust in shopping sites influenced the current live shopping attitude. This is because the transfer of trust is also valid in live shopping, which demonstrated the importance of building trust. Third, this study proposed and validated a research model that could systematically understand the consumption process of live streaming shopping. Furthermore, this study provides a beneficial implication for those who want to use live shopping in practice.

• 한국융합학회논문지
• /
• 제10권11호
• /
• pp.283-288
• /
• 2019

본 연구는 제품정보가 넘치는 온라인 쇼핑에서 소비자의 불확실성 회피성향이 구매연기행동에 미치는 영향을 분석하고, 이 과정에서 실용적/쾌락적 소비가치가 조절효과를 갖는지 알아보았다. 20-30대 남녀 205명을 대상으로 고관여 탐색재인 노트북에 대해 6개의 가상브랜드 구매상황 시나리오를 제시하고 구매연기의도를 분석한 결과, 불확실성 회피성향이 높을수록 구매연기의도가 높고, 실용적 소비가치는 이들 간의 관계에서 조절효과를 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 하지만 쾌락적 소비가치는 불확실성 회피성향과 구매연기의도 사이에 조절효과가 없었다. 본 연구의 결과는 온라인 쇼핑과 같이 제품정보가 과부하되는 상황에서 소비자는 불확실성을 느낄수록 구매를 연기하려하므로, 제품에 관한 정보를 무조건 많이 제공할 것이 아니라 불확실성을 감소시킬 수 있는 정보제시 전략이 필요하며, 특히 실용적/쾌락적 소비가치의 차별적 효과를 고려하여 제품관련 정보를 구성해야 함을 시사해 준다.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
• /
• 제3권2호
• /
• pp.3-17
• /
• 1993

The fuzzy pattern matching technique has been developed in the framework of fuzzy set and possibility theory in order to take into account the imprecision and the uncertainty pervading values which have to be compared to requirements (which may be fuzzy) in a pattern matching process. This paper restates the basic principles and extends them to situations where (sub)patterns are only required to be satisfied up to a given tolerance (which may be fuzzy), or where the different subparts of a compound pattern may have various levels of importance. Both cases correspond to a weakening of elementary patterns. which can be expressed by a fuzzy relations modelling an approximate equality or an uncertain strict equality respectively. We also study the more sophisticated case where some elementary patterns have not to be satisfied with the highest priority provided that weaker requirements remain satisfied. The fuzzy pattern matching technique applies in a variety of problems including the evaluation of soft queries with respect to a fuzzy database, the evaluation of the fuzzy condition parts of rules in approximate reasoning, or the evaluation of the belonging of an ill-known object to a flexible class in classification problems.