• 제목/요약/키워드: uncertainty factor

검색결과 625건 처리시간 0.025초

Fuzzy Petri Nets를 이용한 퍼지 추론 시스템의 모델링 및 추론기관의 구현 (A Model with an Inference Engine for a Fuzzy Production System Using Fuzzy Petri Nets)

  • 전명근
    • 전자공학회논문지B
    • /
    • 제29B권7호
    • /
    • pp.30-41
    • /
    • 1992
  • As a general model of rule-based systems, we propose a model for a fuzzy production system having chaining rules and an inference engine associated with the model. The concept of so-called 'fuzzy petri nets' is used to model the fuzzy production system and the inference engine is designed to be capable of handling inexact knowledge. The fuzzy logic is adopted to represent vagueness in the rules and the certainty factor is used to express uncertainty of each rules given by a human expert. Parallel, inference schemes are devised by transforming Fuzzy Petri nets to matrix formula. Futher, the inference engine mechanism under the Mamdani's implication method can be desceribed by a simple algebraic formula, which makes real time inference possible.

  • PDF

무역항 및 연안항 피복재의 파괴확률과 부분안전계수 해석 (Analysis of Probabilities of Failure and Partial Safety Factors of Armor Units on Tranding and Coastal Harbors)

  • 이철응;박동헌
    • 산업기술연구
    • /
    • 제28권B호
    • /
    • pp.157-165
    • /
    • 2008
  • Level II AFDA and Level III MCS reliability models are applied to analyze the stability of armor units on trading and coastal harbors in Korea. Hudson's formula and Van der Meer's formula are used in this reliability analysis. Also, probability density functions of reliability index and probability of failure are derived by the additional analysis. In addition, the partial safety factors of all harbors related to armor units can be straightforwardly evaluated by the inverse-reliability method. The upper and lower limits and average level of partial safety factors can be statistically investigated with the results of all cases applied in this paper. Therefore, it may be possible to design armor units of new breakwaters including the uncertainty of random variable and target level by using the present results.

  • PDF

확률론적 파괴역학 수법의 적용성 검토 (Application of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Methodology)

  • 이준성;곽상록;김영진
    • 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국정밀공학회 2001년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
    • /
    • pp.667-670
    • /
    • 2001
  • For major structural components periodic inspections and integrity assessments are needed for the safety. However, many flaws are undetectable because sampling inspection is carried out during in-service inspection. Probabilistic integrity assessment is applied to take into consideration of uncertainty and variance of input parameters arise due to material properties and undetectable cracks. This paper describes a Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics(PEM) analysis based on the Monte Carlo(MC) algorithms. Taking a number of sampling data of probabilistic variables such as fracture toughness value, crack depth and aspect ratio of an initial surface crack, a MC simulation of failure judgement of samples is performed. For the verification of this analysis, a comparison study of th PFM analysis using a commercial code, mathematical method is carried out and a good agreement was observed between those results.

  • PDF

항만 콘크리트 구조물의 내구성 파괴확률 예측을 위한 신뢰성 모델 (Reliability-based Model of Durability Failure for Harbor Concrete Structure)

  • 한상훈;박우선
    • 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국콘크리트학회 2005년도 추계 학술발표회 제17권2호
    • /
    • pp.471-474
    • /
    • 2005
  • Reliability-based durability model was developed to consider the uncertainty of analysis variables in durability model for harbor concrete structures. The durability analysis program based on Finite Element Method (FEM) was modified adopting the reliability concept to estimate the probability of durability failure. Water-cement ratio in the durability analysis is the most important factor influencing chloride diffusion coefficient, evaporable water, etc. The probability distribution of water-cement ratio was calculated converting standard deviations of compressive strength in Concrete Standard Code to those of water-cement ratio. Based on the Monte Carlo Simulation, the probabilities of penetration depth and durability failure were calculated.

  • PDF

교량기초의 신뢰성 설계규준에 관한 연구 (A Study on Reliability Based Design Criteria for Bridge Foundation)

  • 손용우;정철원
    • 전산구조공학
    • /
    • 제6권1호
    • /
    • pp.77-89
    • /
    • 1993
  • Current Bridge foundation design is based on Working Stress Design(WSD), but Load Factor Based on Optimum Reliability(LFBOR) design method is more rational than the WSD. For this reason, this study proposes a reliability based design criteria for the bridge foundation, which is most common type of bridge foundation(Shallow, Pile and Caission), and also proposes the theoretical basis of nominal safety factors of stability analysis by introducing the reliability theory. The limit state equations of stability analysis of bridge foundation and the uncertainty measuring algorithms of each equation are also derived by Cornell's MFOSM(Mean First Order 2nd Moment Methods)using the stability analysis fourmula Highway Bridge Design Codes.

  • PDF

소프트웨어 최적출하정책의 베이지안 접근방법 (A Bayesian Approach to Software Optima I Re lease Policy)

  • 김희수;이애경
    • 한국신뢰성학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국신뢰성학회 2002년도 정기학술대회
    • /
    • pp.273-273
    • /
    • 2002
  • In this paper, we investigate a software release policy with software reliability growth factor during the warranty period by assuming that the software reliability growth is assumed to occur after the testing phase with probability p and the software reliability growth is not assumed to occur after the testing phase with probability 1-p. The optimal release policy to minimize the expected total software cost is discussed. Numerical examples are shown to illustrate the results of the optimal policy. And we consider a Bayesian decision theoretic approach to determine an optimal software release policy. This approach enables us to update our uncertainty when determining optimal software release time, When the failure time is Weibull distribution with uncertain parameters, a bayesian approach is established. Finally, numerical examples are presented for illustrative propose.

  • PDF

위상이동법을 이용한 3차원 형상측정법의 연구 (3-D Profilometry by Phase Shifting Profilometry)

  • 오동석;남기봉
    • 한국광학회지
    • /
    • 제5권2호
    • /
    • pp.191-197
    • /
    • 1994
  • 본 연구에서는 물체의 형상을 측정하기 위하여 사용할 수 있는 여러 가지 방법중 위상이동법을 이용하여 주어진 물체의 형상을 재구성하였다. 투영하는 직선형 무늬는 Twyman-Green 간섭계를 이용하여 발생시켰고 PZT를 이용하여 이들 무늬를 공간적으로 이동시켰다. Hariharan의 위상복구 알고리즘을 사용하여 시료에 투영된 간섭무늬 영상을 해석하여 주어진 시료의 형상을 보정 상수의 범위이내로 재현할 수 있음을 보였다. 그러나 레이저광의 높은 가간섭성에 의한 여러잡음 성분들에 의한 부작용이 관찰되었으며, 정확한 보정의 문제도 주목되었다.

  • PDF

비구면 렌즈의 형상 측정을 위한 접촉식 프로브 기술 개발 (Contact Probing Technique for Profile Measurement of Aspheric Lenses)

  • 유승봉;장인철;김승우
    • 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국정밀공학회 2000년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
    • /
    • pp.603-606
    • /
    • 2000
  • This dissertation is concerned with ultra-precision profile measurement of aspheric surfaces using contact probing technique. A contact probe has been designed as a sensing device to obtain measuring resolutions in nanometer regime utilizing a leaf spring mechanism and a capacitive-type sensor. The contact probe is attached on the z-axis during measurement while aspheric objects are supported on an precision xy-stage whose lateral motions are monitored by a set of two orthogonal plane mirror type laser interferometers. Experimental results show that the contact probing technique developed in this investigation is capable of providing a repeatability of 50 nanometers with a $\pm$3$\sigma$ uncertainty of 300 nanometers. Thermal disturbance is found the most significant factor that should be precisely controlled for accurate measurement.

  • PDF

Site Calibration for the Wind Turbine Performance Evaluation

  • Nam, Yoon-Su;Yoo, Neung-Soo;Lee, Jung-Wan
    • Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
    • /
    • 제18권12호
    • /
    • pp.2250-2257
    • /
    • 2004
  • The accurate wind speed information at the hub height of a wind turbine is very essential to the exact estimation of the wind turbine power performance testing. Several methods on the site calibration, which is a technique to estimate the wind speed at the wind turbine's hub height based on the measured wind data using a reference meteorological mast, are introduced. A site calibration result and the wind resource assessment for the TaeKwanRyung test site are presented using three-month wind data from a reference meteorological mast and the other mast temporarily installed at the site of wind turbine. Besides, an analysis on the uncertainty allocation for the wind speed correction using site calibration is performed.

원전 주요기기의 확률론적 평가 기법 (Probabilistic Evaluation Methodology for Nuclear Components)

  • 이준성;곽상록;김영진;박윤원
    • 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 대한기계학회 2001년도 춘계학술대회논문집A
    • /
    • pp.459-464
    • /
    • 2001
  • For major nuclear power plant components periodic inspections and integrity assessments are needed for the safety. But many flaws are undetectable due to sampling inspection. Probabilistic integrity assessment is applied to take into consideration of uncertainty and variance of input parameters arise due to material properties, applied load and undetectable flaws. This paper describes a Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics(PFM) analysis based on Monte Carlo(MC) algorithms. Taking important parameters as probabilistic variables such as fracture toughness, crack growth rate and flaw shape, failure probability of major nuclear power plant components is archived as a results of MC simulation. For the verification of these analysis, a comparison study of the PFM analysis using other commercial code, mathematical method is carried out and a good agreement was observed between those results.

  • PDF