• Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.64-71
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• 2005

In probabilistic design, the challenge is to estimate the uncertainty propagation, since outputs of subsystems at lower levels could constitute inputs of other systems or at higher levels of the multilevel systems. Three uncertainty propagation estimation techniques are compared in this paper in terms of numerical efficiency and accuracy: root sum square (linearization), distribution-based moment approximation, and Taguchi-based integration. When applied to reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) under uncertainty, it is investigated which type of applications each method is best suitable for. Two nonlinear analytical examples and one vehicle crashworthiness for side-impact simulation example are employed to investigate the unique features of the presented techniques for uncertainty propagation. This study aims at helping potential users to identify appropriate techniques for their applications in the multilevel design.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.588-598
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• 2020

An alternative state estimation filtering algorithm is designed for continuous time systems with noises as well as control input. Two kinds of estimation filters, which have different measurement memory structures, are operated selectively in order to use both filters effectively as needed. Firstly, the estimation filter with infinite memory structure is operated for a certain continuous time system. Secondly, the estimation filter with finite memory structure is operated for temporarily uncertain continuous time system. That is, depending on the presence of uncertainty, one of infinite memory structure and finite memory structure filtered estimates is operated selectively to obtain the valid estimate. A couple of test variables and declaration rule are developed to detect uncertainty presence or uncertainty absence, to operate the suitable one from two kinds of filtered estimates, and to obtain ultimately the valid filtered estimate. Through computer simulations for a continuous time aircraft engine system with different measurement memory lengths and temporary model uncertainties, the proposed state estimation filtering algorithm can work well in temporarily uncertain as well as certain continuous time systems. Moreover, the proposed state estimation filtering algorithm shows remarkable superiority to the infinite memory structure filtering when temporary uncertainties occur in succession.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2002.10a
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• pp.48.2-48
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• 2002

This paper presents an integrated sliding mode adaptive control scheme for general nonlinear uncertain systems, where structured uncertainty is assumed can be linearly parameterized and unstructured uncertainty is assumed be bounded by unknown constant A certain estimation scheme for this unknown constant is introduced to attenuate the unstructured uncertainty. Presented control scheme is shown to be stable and numerical expressions of bounds of all error signals are given, from which we can acquire some useful information about practical trade-off between tracking performance and parameter estimation property.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.39 no.3
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• pp.355-361
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• 2023

Temperature of the Earth's surface is a crucial physical variable in understanding weather and atmospheric dynamics and in coping with extreme heat events that have a great impact on living organismsincluding humans. Thermalsensors on satellites have been a useful meansfor acquiring surface temperature information for wide areas on the globe, and thus characterization of its estimation uncertainty is of central importance for the utilization of the data. Among various factors that affect the estimation, the uncertainty caused by the algorithm itself has not been tested for the atmospheric environment of Korean vicinity. Thisstudy derivesthe uncertainty of the single-channel algorithm under the local atmospheric and oceanic conditions by using reanalysis data and buoy temperature data collected around Korea. Atmospheric profiles were retrieved from two types of reanalysis data, the fifth generation of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis of the global climate and weather (ERA5) and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA-2) to investigate the effect of reanalysis data. MODerate resolution atmospheric TRANsmission (MODTRAN) was used as a radiative transfer code for simulating top of atmosphere radiance and the atmospheric correction for the temperature estimation. Water temperatures used for MODTRAN simulations and uncertainty estimation for the single-channel algorithm were obtained from marine weather buoyslocated in seas around the Korean Peninsula. Experiment results showed that the uncertainty of the algorithm varies by the water vapor contents in the atmosphere and is around 0.35K in the driest atmosphere and 0.46K in overall, regardless of the reanalysis data type. The uncertainty increased roughly in a linear manner as total precipitable water increased.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.107-113
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• 2013

When the main spindle of high precision machine tools are run many hours, heat is generated in bearing parts of the inside of the spindle. Also, headstock is appeared distortion by inside and outside temperature difference of a machine. This paper studies method to measure behavior of machine tool about these thermal effects. In addition, it estimates measurement uncertainty factors which can be appeared in thermal effects measurement. Finding the factor of thermal affect measurement is important for estimation of measurement uncertainty. This paper measures thermal effects of high precision machine tools and evaluates the important factors of uncertainty.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.641-649
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• 2010

Estimation of uncertain parameters is required in many engineering problems which involve probabilistic structural analysis as well as prognosis of existing structures. In this case, Bayesian framework is often employed, which is to represent the uncertainty of parameters in terms of probability distributions conditional on the provided data. The resulting form of distribution, however, is not amenable to the practical application due to its complex nature making the standard probability functions useless. In this study, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is proposed to overcome this difficulty, which is a modern computational technique for the efficient and straightforward estimation of parameters. Three case studies that implement the estimation are presented to illustrate the concept. The first one is an inverse estimation, in which the unknown input parameters are inversely estimated based on a finite number of measured response data. The next one is a metamodel uncertainty problem that arises when the original response function is approximated by a metamodel using a finite set of response values. The last one is a prognostics problem, in which the unknown parameters of the degradation model are estimated based on the monitored data.

• Computational Structural Engineering : An International Journal
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.81-87
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• 2001

A framework for reliability analysis of structural components and systems under conditions of statistical and model uncertainty is presented. The Bayesian parameter estimation method is used to derive the posterior distribution of model parameters reflecting epistemic uncertainties. Point, predictive and bound estimates of reliability accounting for parameter uncertainties are derived. The bounds estimates explicitly reflect the effect of epistemic uncertainties on the reliability measure. These developments are enhance-ments of second-moment uncertainty analysis methods developed by A. H-S. Ang and others three decades ago.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.407-419
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• 2016

The low flow is the necessary and important index to establish national water planning, however there are lots of uncertainty in the low flow estimation. Therefore, the objectives of this study are to assess the climate change uncertainty and the effects of hydrological models on low flow estimation. The 5 RCMs (HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, MM5, WRF, and RSM), 5 statistical post-processing methods and 2 hydrological models were applied for evaluation. The study area were selected as Chungju dam and Soyang river dam basin, and the 30 days minimum flow is used for the low flow evaluation. The results of the uncertainty analysis showed that the hydrological model was the largest source of uncertainty about 41.5% in the low flow projection. The uncertainty of hydrological model is higher than the other steps (RCM, statistical post-processing). Also, VIC model is more sensitive for climate change compared to SWAT model. Therefore, the hydrological model should be thoroughly reviewed for the climate change impact assessment on low flow.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.20-24
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• 1995

In this paper we analyze the performance bounds of the optimal FIR filter in continuous time systems with modeling uncertainty. The performance bounds are presented by the estimation error convariance and they are here expressed by the upper bounds of the difference of the estimation error covariance between the real and nominal values in case of the system with model uncertainties whose upper bounds are imperfrctly known a priori. The performance bounds of the optimal FIR filter are compared with those of the Kalman filter via a numerical example applied to the estimation of the motion of an aircraft carrier at sea, which shows the former has better performances than the latter.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1997.10a
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• pp.1589-1592
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• 1997

Among the prerequisite abilities (perception of environment, path planning and position estimation) of an autonomous mobile robot, position estimation has been seldom studied by mobile robot researchers. In most cases, conventional positioin estimation has been performed by placing landmarks or giving the entrire environmental information in advance. Unlikely to the conventional ones, the study addresses a new method that the robot itself can select distinctive features in the environment and save them as landmarks without any a priori knowledge, which can maximize the autonomous behavior of the robot. First, an orjentaion probaility model is applied to construct a lcoal map of robot's surrounding. The feature of the object in the map is then extracted and the map is saved as landmark. Also, presented is the position estimation method that utilizes the correspondence between landmarks and current local map. In dong this, the uncertainty of the robot's current positioin is estimated in order to select the corresponding landmark stored in the previous steps. The usefulness of all these approaches are illustrated with the results porduced by a real robot equipped with ultrasonic sensors.