• Title/Summary/Keyword: uncertain data

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A Study on the Market Efficiency in a Pari-Mutuel Betting Market in Korea (경마 베팅시장의 효율성에 관한 연구)

  • Yu, Woong;Nahm, Jun-woo
    • Review of Culture and Economy
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.149-171
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    • 2017
  • This paper presents empirical findings about the market inefficiency field in the korean horse track. We first use the place betting data instead of the win betting data inevitably depended on by past studies, and discuss the degree of the long shot anomaly and the bettor's risk attitude sequentially in the place betting market. The empirical result of betting simulations using the place winning function in this study reveals persistently higher returns than the expected payoff in korean racetrack betting market. The clear departures from perfect efficiency in horse-racing betting imply that much of the market information is insufficient and less accurate. This market asymmetry aggravates popular speculations exquisitely since people are attracted by the higher odds figures in the racetrack display although those are much uncertain in future. The findings suggest the more objective and credible information of winning possibilities such as the place winning function including the smart information of marginal odds needs to be available to the betting decision of the public, which contributes to reducing the speculative spirit in korean racetrack.

A Study on the Algorithms for One-way Transmission in IPv6 Environment (IPv6 환경에서의 일방향 통신 알고리즘에 대한 연구)

  • Koh, Keun Ho;Ahn, Seong Jin
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.63-69
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    • 2017
  • In the early 1990s, IETF(Internet Engineering TaskForce) had started the discussion on new address protocol that can modify and supplement various drawbacks of existing IPv4 address protocol with the introduction of CIDR(Classless Inter-Domain Routing) which is a temporary solution for IPv4 address depletion, NAT, private IP address. While various standards related to new address protocol has been proposed, the SIPP(Simple Internet Protocol Plus) was adopted among them because it is regarded as the most promising solution. And this protocol has been developed into current IPv6. The new concepts are introduced with modifying a lot of deficiencies in the exisitng IPv4 such as real-time data processing, performance on QoS, security and the efficiency of routing. Since many security threats in IPv6 environment still exist, the necessity of stable data communication environment has been brought up continuously. This paper deveopled one-way communication algorithm in IPv6 based on the high possibility of protecting the system from uncertain and potential risk factors if the data is transmitted in one way. After the analysis of existing IPv6 and ICMPv6, this paper suggests one-way communication algorithm as a solution for existing IPv6 and ICMPv6 environment.

Heuristic Appearing in Experimental Manual Processing of Elementary School Students (초등학생의 실험매뉴얼 처리에서 나타나는 휴리스틱)

  • Yang, Ji-Hye;Yang, Il-Ho;Kim, Seong-Un
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Earth Science Education
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.142-157
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    • 2022
  • Heuristic is a empirical method that is used quickly when uncertainty or insufficient time and information are insufficient. The purpose of this study is to find out what heuristics appear in the processing of the experimental manual among science experiment activities of elementary school students. To do this, 20 fifth-grade elementary school students (female 10 and male 10) were required to conduct scientific experimental activities as research participants to collect experimental behavior data and gaze movement data, and retrospective interviews were conducted. The collected data extracted and conceptualized behavior by heuristics. As a result of the study, there were five heuristics that appeared in the processing of the experimental manual: "reducing the difference between the target state and the current state," "guessing the experimental procedure," "paying attention to the expected results," "comparing with the picture of the experimental manual," and "using a trial and error strategy." According to each concept of heuristics, there were favorable and unfavorable aspects for experimental activities. In science experiment activities that students experience for the first time, there is a lack of information and the situation is uncertain, so behavior by heuristics appears in nature. Therefore, educators need to understand students' heuristics and guide scientific experimental activities.

Exploring the Factors Influencing the Understanding of the Nature of Science through Authentic Open Inquiries (개방적 참탐구 활동에서 학생들의 과학의 본성에 대한 이해에 영향을 미치는 요인 탐색)

  • Kim, Mi-Kyung;Kim, Heui-Baik
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.565-578
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study is to search for the factors that influence students' understanding of the nature of science through the experience of the cognitive processes of authentic open inquiries. The freshmen of a science high school practiced authentic open inquiries reflecting epistemological characteristics of authentic science. The case study was conducted with four focus students who were successful or unsuccessful at learning the nature of science during the authentic open inquiry activity. Questions that the focus students asked during the inquiries as well as students' answers to pre- and post-VNOS (C type) were analysed, and then elaborated in the semi-structured interview. The findings suggest that open inquiry activities provide the inquiry contexts that help science high school students to understand the nature of science, and that the characteristics of students' cognition influence the understanding of the nature of science. For instance, designing experiments with their own research questions had an influence on the students' understanding about the scientific methods and the diversity of research types, and drawing conclusions from their own data made students experience scientific reasoning. In addition, the experience of collecting anomalous data helped students to understand the role of inferences in generating scientific knowledge and the creative nature of scientific knowledge. In this inquiry context, the reflective thinking that came from proactive discussion among students, made students think about the validity of the designing experiments and interpreting data, and helped them to understand the uncertain nature of reasoning and the diverse nature of scientific methods. Moreover, divergent thinking linked to analogical thinking helped students to understand the creative nature of science.

Assessment of Rocks and Alteration Information Extraction using ASTER data for Övörkhangaii Province, Mongolia (ASTER 영상자료를 활용한 몽골 오보르항가이(Övörkhangai) 일대 암상 빛 변질 정보추출의 활용가능성 평가)

  • Jeong, Yongsik;Yu, Jaehyung;Koh, Sang-Mo;Heo, Chul-Ho
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.48 no.4
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    • pp.325-335
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    • 2015
  • This study examined the possibility to extract potential alteration zones and lithologic information based on ASTER band ratio techniques for mineralized area located in ${\ddot{O}}v{\ddot{o}}rkhangai$ province, Mongolia, and the effectiveness of remote sensing as a preliminary exploration tool for mineral exploration was tested. The results of ABRLO, PBRLO, and PrBRLO models indicated that the detection of argillic zone requires the verification of the samples to verify hydrothermal alteration minerals as clay minerals can formed by weathering process, whereas phyllic-propylitic zones were considerably related to the spatial distribution of the intrusive bodies, geological structures, and ore distribution. QI and MI results showed that QI is more useful for sedimentary rocks such as conglomerate and sandstone than meta-sedimentary like quartzite, and MI faced relatively uncertain in detection of felsic or mafic silicate rocks. QI and MI may require additional geologic information such as the characteristics of samples and geological survey data to improve extraction of lithologic information, and, if so, it is expected that remote sensing technique would contribute significantly as a preliminary geological survey method.

Changes in the Usage of Dental Technology CAD/CAM (치과기공 CAD/CAM 사용에 대한 실태변화)

  • Nah, Jung-Sook
    • Journal of Technologic Dentistry
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.271-284
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the usage of CAD/CAM, which is one of dental technologist duties, in an effort to look for any possible changes in the usage of CAD/CAM. It's specifically meant to compare the results of this study with those of Lee Jong-do, Park Kwang-Sig(2011)'s study in March, 2011, to determine if there were any changes over the past four years. The selected variables that were investigated were the ownership of CAD/CAM, awareness of it, the route of acquiring the first information on it, the merits and demerits of its usage, usage experience and educational experience about it. Methods: An online survey was conducted on the dental technologists who worked in urban communities including metropolitan cities to find out the usage of CAD/CAM in 2015 from July 15 to 31, 2015, after existing questionnaire items were modified. The collected data were analyzed by IBM SPSS statistics 22.0, and statistical data on frequency, percentage, mean and standard deviation for each item were obtained. To figure out the characteristics of the subjects and the relationship between their occupational characteristics and the usage of CAD/CAM, crosstabs, independent-samples t-test and one-way ANOVA were utilized. As for the usage of CAD/CAM in 2011, the results of Lee Jong-do, Park Kwang-Sig(2011)'s study were selected, and then a comparative analysis was made. The level of significance was all set at .05. Total 250 questionnaires were distributed to them, and 190(76.0%) were returned. After excluding 23 whose answers were uncertain or seemed to lack reliability, total 167(66.8%) were used in final analysis. Results: As a result of analyzing the usage of CAD/CAM that was one of dental technologist duties, there was a great increase in the ownership of CAD/CAM in their workplaces from 2.4 percent in 2011 to 71.7 percent in 2015, and there was an improvement in awareness about it and the necessity of its usage as well. In 2011, the Internet and mass media were the most common route that they got to know about it. They had a strong tendency to acquire related knowledge through education in 2015, and there were some changes in the products that they used or preferred. In both years, the great merit of CAD/CAM was the simplified manufacturing process of restoration, and it had another great advantages in 2015 such as the improved quality of restoration or improved environments for dental technology. Concerning disadvantages, high price was a big problem in 2011. In 2015, not only price but the burden of material costs, frequent breakdown, poor demand among dental clinics and a lack of CAD/CAM professionals were pointed out a lot. In the future, this researcher intends to make research to seek ways of improving CAD/CAM professionals. Conclusion: There was more awareness of CAD/CAM in 2015 than in 2011 when the changes in awareness of it were analyzed, and the finding suggest the necessity of sustained education and concern.

Linkage of Hydrological Model and Machine Learning for Real-time Prediction of River Flood (수문모형과 기계학습을 연계한 실시간 하천홍수 예측)

  • Lee, Jae Yeong;Kim, Hyun Il;Han, Kun Yeun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.303-314
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    • 2020
  • The hydrological characteristics of watersheds and hydraulic systems of urban and river floods are highly nonlinear and contain uncertain variables. Therefore, the predicted time series of rainfall-runoff data in flood analysis is not suitable for existing neural networks. To overcome the challenge of prediction, a NARX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Model), which is a kind of recurrent dynamic neural network that maximizes the learning ability of a neural network, was applied to forecast a flood in real-time. At the same time, NARX has the characteristics of a time-delay neural network. In this study, a hydrological model was constructed for the Taehwa river basin, and the NARX time-delay parameter was adjusted 10 to 120 minutes. As a result, we found that precise prediction is possible as the time-delay parameter was increased by confirming that the NSE increased from 0.530 to 0.988 and the RMSE decreased from 379.9 ㎥/s to 16.1 ㎥/s. The machine learning technique with NARX will contribute to the accurate prediction of flow rate with an unexpected extreme flood condition.

A Hierarchical CPV Solar Generation Tracking System based on Modular Bayesian Network (베이지안 네트워크 기반 계층적 CPV 태양광 추적 시스템)

  • Park, Susang;Yang, Kyon-Mo;Cho, Sung-Bae
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.41 no.7
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    • pp.481-491
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    • 2014
  • The power production using renewable energy is more important because of a limited amount of fossil fuel and the problem of global warming. A concentrative photovoltaic system comes into the spotlight with high energy production, since the rate of power production using solar energy is proliferated. These systems, however, need to sophisticated tracking methods to give the high power production. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical tracking system using modular Bayesian networks and a naive Bayes classifier. The Bayesian networks can respond flexibly in uncertain situations and can be designed by domain knowledge even when the data are not enough. Bayesian network modules infer the weather states which are classified into nine classes. Then, naive Bayes classifier selects the most effective method considering inferred weather states and the system makes a decision using the rules. We collected real weather data for the experiments and the average accuracy of the proposed method is 93.9%. In addition, comparing the photovoltaic efficiency with the pinhole camera system results in improved performance of about 16.58%.

Parenting experiences of mother in children with developmental disabilities (발달장애 아동 어머니의 양육 경험)

  • Yeo, Yeong-Nam;Park, Hae In;Shin, Jeoung-Soon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.8
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    • pp.283-294
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to understand and describe in depth the meaning of parenting experiences of mothers with children with developmental disabilities through phenomenological methods. Participants of this study were selected by convenience sampling 11 mothers who were taking care of children with developmental disabilities who were being treated at the Welfare Center for the Disabled in C city. Data were collected from February to April, 2018 by using in-depth interview and tape-recording. The interview data were analyzed by the phenomenological analysis method of Giorgi. As the result of analysis, the following seven constituents were emerged; Regreting to delay the uncertain diagnosis, Difficulty in accommodating children with disabilities, Unbearable gaze around, Family disagreements due to children with disabilities, Adopting and dedicated to child care for disabled childre, Tiring of raising children with disabilities, Accepting children with disabilities. In conclusion, the parenting attitude of mother with developmental disability is influenced not only by the children with developmental disabilities but also by the social contact opportunities of daily life and interpersonal relationship including mothers' emotional stability and social isolation, It is considered that medical and welfare should be systematically introduced for physical, psychological and emotional support for mothers.

The Experience of Cancer Survivor's Return to Everyday Life (암 생존자의 일상생활 복귀 경험)

  • Kim, Seon-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.327-336
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    • 2020
  • This study was undertaken to identify ways that enable a successful comeback to everyday life and improvement in the quality of life, by understanding the experiences of cancer survivors in returning to everyday life. Totally, 19 people diagnosed with complete cure after 5 years of cancer treatment, were recruited for the study. Data was collected through in-depth interviews from January 18 to February 25, 2017. One-time interviews took 90 to 120 minutes, and data analysis was achieved by applying the grounded theory. The central phenomenon of 'reality that cannot be escaped' and 'uncertain reality that cannot know tomorrow' was attributed to the causal conditions 'hard reality', 'physical exhaustion', 'psychological exhaustion' and 'economic exhaustion'. Depending on context conditions such as 'lack of family support', 'shift to a vulnerable working class', 'insufficient support system', 'hope for the societal support system', 'daunted gender', 'prejudice against cancer/cancer patients', 'information on life after rare full healing'. The strategy for a successful return was influenced by intervention conditions such as 'robust family fence' and 'effective cancer insurance', which resulted in 'building a new life' or 'enduring'. We conclude that for a successful return to daily lives, cancer survivors require comprehensive information, health and social-welfare interventions.