• 제목/요약/키워드: typhoon simulation

검색결과 182건 처리시간 0.022초

남중국해 지역 실시간 해양 조석 및 폭풍해일 시뮬레이션 (Regional Realtime Ocean Tide and Storm-surge Simulation for the South China Sea)

  • 김경옥;최병호;이한수;육진희
    • 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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    • 제30권2호
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    • pp.69-83
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    • 2018
  • 남중국해는 심해 분지, 대륙 붕단, 얕은 대륙붕, 많은 해협, 복잡한 수심 특징을 가진 전형적인 연안 영해이다. 본 연구에서는, 비구조 격자 기반으로 대상 해역을 상세하게 해상할 수 있으며, 개방경계에 조석을, 해표면에 기상자료를 입력하여 조석 및 폭풍해일을 모의할 수 있는 수치 모델을 구축하여 남중국해의 조석 특성과 전파 양상을 조사하고, 태풍에 의한 폭풍해일을 재현하였다. 태풍에 의한 폭풍해일 모의는, 2013년에 필리핀에 막대한 피해를 초래하였던 태풍 하이옌에 대해서 수행하였다. 관측치 및 선행 연구의 조석 분포와의 비교 결과, 4개의 주요 분조의 진폭과 위상은 대체적으로 잘 모의되었다. 선행 연구들에 따르면, 당 해역은 모델을 이용하여 조석을 예측하기가 어렵다고 보고되고 있는데, 이 점을 감안한다면 본 연구에서 예측한 조석은 허용 범위에 있다고 생각된다. 본 연구에서 수행한 자유 진동 모드 실험을 통해서 남중국해가 일주조 조석이 우세한 이유를 알 수 있었으며, 조석 잔차류(tidal residual current) 및 총에너지 소실(total energy dissipation) 산정을 통해서 조석 및 퇴적환경을 파악하였다. 본 연구에서 구축한 모델을 이용하여 태풍 하이옌에 의한 폭풍해일을 타당하게 모의하였으며, 모델 검증 및 조석 환경 규명을 통하여 남중국해의 지역 실시간 순압 조석/수위 예측 시스템을 구축하였다.

EST기법을 이용한 태풍과 집중호우의 시간강우 특성 분석 (Analysis of Hourly Precipitation for Characteristics by Typhoon and Downpour Using An Empirical Simulation Technique)

  • 오태석;오근택;문영일;권현한
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2008년도 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.1235-1239
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    • 2008
  • 최근 기상이변 및 이상기후로 인해 예상치 못한 극치사상이 빈번하게 발생하고 있으며, 이로 인한 수자원관리 측면에 있어 많은 어려움을 겪고 있다. 특히 집중호우나 태풍 사상과 같이 단 시간 내에 많은 양의 강수량을 동반한 경우 댐과 같은 대형 수공구조물의 파괴로 인해 인명 및 재산피해의 가능성을 증가시키고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 우리나라에 발생하는 시간강수량에 대한 평가를 하기 위해 우리나라에 발생하는 시간강수량과 수문기상인자인 해수면 온도 및 습윤지수와의 상관관계 분석을 통해 수문기상인자가 우리나라 강수량에 미치는 영향을 평가하였다. 또한, 우리나라에 발생하는 극한강우를 발생 원인별로 태풍 사상과 집중호우 사상으로 구분하여 수문기상인자와의 상관성 분석 결과를 바탕으로 Empirical Simulation Technique 기법을 적용하여 집중호우와 태풍으로 발생하는 강우의 특성을 평가하였다.

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단기 앙상블 예보에서 모형의 불확실성 표현: 태풍 루사 (Representation of Model Uncertainty in the Short-Range Ensemble Prediction for Typhoon Rusa (2002))

  • 김세나;임규호
    • 대기
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2015
  • The most objective way to overcome the limitation of numerical weather prediction model is to represent the uncertainty of prediction by introducing probabilistic forecast. The uncertainty of the numerical weather prediction system developed due to the parameterization of unresolved scale motions and the energy losses from the sub-scale physical processes. In this study, we focused on the growth of model errors. We performed ensemble forecast to represent model uncertainty. By employing the multi-physics scheme (PHYS) and the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS) in simulating typhoon Rusa (2002), we assessed the performance level of the two schemes. The both schemes produced better results than the control run did in the ensemble mean forecast of the track. The results using PHYS improved by 28% and those based on SKEBS did by 7%. Both of the ensemble mean errors of the both schemes increased rapidly at the forecast time 84 hrs. The both ensemble spreads increased gradually during integration. The results based on SKEBS represented model errors very well during the forecast time of 96 hrs. After the period, it produced an under-dispersive pattern. The simulation based on PHYS overestimated the ensemble mean error during integration and represented the real situation well at the forecast time of 120 hrs. The displacement speed of the typhoon based on PHYS was closest to the best track, especially after landfall. In the sensitivity tests of the model uncertainty of SKEBS, ensemble mean forecast was sensitive to the physics parameterization. By adjusting the forcing parameter of SKEBS, the default experiment improved in the ensemble spread, ensemble mean errors, and moving speed.

HEC-RAS를 이용한 오십천의 수위변화 해석: 태풍산바의 영향을 중심으로 (Analysis of Flood Level Variation in Oship Stream Using HEC-RAS: Focuses on the Impact of the Typhoon Sanba)

  • 전계원
    • 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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    • 제13권2호
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    • pp.498-504
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    • 2013
  • 최근 기후변화에 의한 영향으로 태풍의 발생빈도가 증가하고 있으며 그 결과 산지하천의 경우 상류부의 유량증가와 하류부에 빈번한 수위상승을 가져오고 있다. 본 연구에서는 2012년 9월 17일~18일에 우리나라에 직접적인 영향을 준 태풍 산바의 영향으로 발생한 집중호우가 산지하천 하류부 수위 변동에 어떤 영향을 주는가를 분석하였다. 삼척 오십천 유역을 대상유역으로 선정하고 HEC-RAS모형을 적용하고 홍수위 분석을 실시하였다. 그 결과 2012년 측정된 관측수위와 HEC-RAS모형에 의해 모의된 수위가 유사한 결과를 나타냈으며 최대 홍수위는 5.32m, 평균유속은 2.33m/sec, 최대수로수심은 7.51m로 모의 되어 태풍산바에 의해 내린 집중호우가 오십천의 수위상승에 영향을 미친 것으로 판단되며, 향후 구축된 자료는 하천정비기본계획 수립시 수공구조물 설계에 기초자료로 유용하게 활용될 것으로 기대된다.

An Analysis of the Impact of Building Wind by Field Observation in Haeundae LCT Area, South Korea: Typhoon Omais in 2021

  • Byeonggug Kang;Jongyeong Kim;Yongju Kwon;Joowon Choi;Youngsu Jang;Soonchul Kwon
    • 한국해양공학회지
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    • 제36권6호
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    • pp.380-389
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    • 2022
  • In the Haeundae area of Busan, South Korea, damage has continued to occur recently from building wind from caused by dense skyscrapers. Five wind observation stations were installed near LCT residential towers in Haeundae to analyze the effect of building winds during typhoon Omais. The impact of building wind was analyzed through relative and absolute evaluations. At an intersection located southeast of LCT (L-2), the strongest wind speed was measured during the monitoring. The maximum average wind speed for one minute was observed to be 38.93 m/s, which is about three times stronger than at an ocean observation buoy (12.7 m/s) at the same time. It is expected that 3 to 4 times stronger wind can be induced under certain conditions compared to the surrounding areas due to the building wind effect. In a Beaufort wind scale analysis, the wind speed at an ocean observatory was mostly distributed at Beaufort number 4, and the maximum was 8. At L-2, more than 50% of the wind speed exceeded Beaufort number 4, and numbers up to 12 were observed. However, since actual measurement has a limitation in analyzing the entire range, cross-validation with computational fluid dynamics simulation data is required to understand the characteristics of building winds.

모바일 GIS에 의한 홍수재해관리 (Flood Hazard Management Using Mobile GIS)

  • 강택순;강성봉;손홍규;유환희
    • 한국측량학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국측량학회 2003년도 추계학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.297-302
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    • 2003
  • Recently, Flood hazard has been increased frequently in urban area by rainfall and Typhoon. To manage flood hazard effectively, it needs to construction of flood information management system. Especially, run-off by flood in urban area must be considered not only surface outflow by topographic gradient and elevation but also conduits outflow along conduit network. This paper suggests the flood hazard management system for analyzing flood outflow in urban area using conduits outflow simulation by ILLUDAS model and providing quickly flood hazard information using WebGIS and MobileGIS.

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황천시의 항해안전 평가시스템 개발에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Development of Navigational Safety Evaluation System in Rough Sea)

  • 김순갑;이충로
    • 한국항해학회지
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    • 제15권1호
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    • pp.49-65
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    • 1991
  • It is of great importance for any vessel under way, especially in rough sea, to be maneuvered safely with proper seakeeping performance. In this paper, the author aims to develope a navigational safety evaluation system in rough sea by analyzing ship's with the theory of wave spectrum using random process analysis and the theory of evaluating the seakeeping performance. The scope and the method of this study are as follows ; (1) Modelized typhoon mathematically to represent the sea condition in rough sea. (2) Estimated sea conditions by getting wave spectrum, supposing that the wave by typhoon is fully developed short crest irregular wave. (3) Defined evaluation factor of vessel's seakeeping performance and obtained response amplitude operators thereby. (4) Obtained the response spectrum of factors on seakeeping performance. (5) Defined and obtained evaluation index, dangerousness, relative and maximum dangerousness of factors on seakeeping performance. (6) Analyzed the calculated dangerousness of evaluation index and picked the vertical acceleration out of 7 factors as the presentative factor on seakeeping performance. (7) Carrid out the judgement of danger by obtaining dangerousness value according to steaming hour, course alteration and speed change. By synthesizing the above items, the authors suggests a computer model of navigational safety evaluation system and examined the validity of the model by computer simulation.

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Buffeting response of long suspension bridges to skew winds

  • Xu, Y.L.;Zhu, L.D.;Xiang, H.F.
    • Wind and Structures
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    • 제6권3호
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    • pp.179-196
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    • 2003
  • A long suspension bridge is often located within a unique wind environment, and strong winds at the site seldom attack the bridge at a right angle to its long axis. This paper thus investigates the buffeting response of long suspension bridges to skew winds. The conventional buffeting analysis in the frequency domain is first improved to take into account skew winds based on the quasi-steady theory and the oblique strip theory in conjunction with the finite element method and the pseudo-excitation method. The aerodynamic coefficients and flutter derivatives of the Tsing Ma suspension bridge deck under skew winds, which are required in the improved buffeting analysis, are then measured in a wind tunnel using specially designed test rigs. The field measurement data, which were recorded during Typhoon Sam in 1999 by the Wind And Structural Health Monitoring System (WASHMS) installed on the Tsing Ma Bridge, are analyzed to obtain both wind characteristics and buffeting responses. Finally, the field measured buffeting responses of the Tsing Ma Bridge are compared with those from the computer simulation using the improved method and the aerodynamic coefficients and flutter derivatives measured under skew winds. The comparison is found satisfactory in general.

Numerical simulation of infill CACB wall cracking subjected to wind loads

  • Ruige Li;Yu Gao;Hongjian Lin;Mingfeng Huang;Chenghui Wang;Zhongzhi Hu;Lingyi Jin
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제89권5호
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    • pp.479-489
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    • 2024
  • The cracking mechanism in ceramsite aerated concrete block (CACB) infill walls were studied in low seismic fortification intensity coastal areas with frequent occurrence of typhoons. The inter-story drifts of an eight-story residential building under wind loads and a seismic fortification intensity of six degrees were analyzed by using the PKPM software. The maximum inter-story drift ratio of the structure in wind load was found to be comparable to that under the seismic fortification intensity of six degrees. However, when accounting for the large gust wind speed of typhoon, the maximum inter-story drift ratio was much larger than that obtained under reference wind load. In addition, the finite element models of RC frames were employed by displacement loading to simulate two scenarios with and without window hole in the CACB infill walls, respectively. The simulation results show no signs of cracking in both the infill walls with window hole and those without window for the inter-story drift caused by seismic loads and the reference wind load. However, both types of infill walls experienced structural creaking when assessing the gust wind pressure recorded from previous typhoon monitoring. It is concluded that an underestimate of wind loads may contribute substantially to the cracking of frame CACB infill walls in low seismic fortification intensity coastal areas. Consequently, it is imperative to adopt wind pressure values derived from gust wind speeds in the design of CACB infill walls within frame structures. Finally, the future research directions of avoiding cracks in CACB filled walls were proposed. They were the material performance improving and building structure optimizing.

기후변화 시나리오에 따른 최대 가능 태풍강도 추정 및 이에 따른 폭풍해일고 양상 모의 (Estimation of Maximum Typhoon Intensity Considering Climate Change Scenarios and Simulation of Corresponding Storm Surge)

  • 윤종주;전기천;심재설;박광순
    • 한국해양환경ㆍ에너지학회지
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    • 제15권4호
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    • pp.292-301
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    • 2012
  • 지구온난화에 따른 해수의 온도 상승은 태풍의 대형화와 강도증가의 원인이 된다. 본 논문에서는 태풍발생에 있어서의 열역학적 최대한계이론을 적용하여 미래의 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 해수온도의 상승과 기온의 수직성층분포 변화를 고려한 동북아 해역의 지역별 가능 최대태풍의 강도를 추정하였다. IPCC 4차 보고서[2007]에 제시된 기후변화 시나리오를 적용하였으며 각 시나리오에 따라 추정된 태풍의 최대 가능 강도의 결과는 최저중심기압 및 최대풍속의 공간분포로 제시하였는데, 대기 중 이산화탄소의 농도 증가에 비례하여 더 큰 최대 가능강도가 추정되었다. 또한 각 시나리오에 따른 최대 가능강도를 가지는 가상태풍에 의한 폭풍해일고를 수치모의 하였다. 가상태풍의 경로에는 태풍 Maemi(2003)를 따라 적용하였다. 산출된 폭풍해일고의 결과는 최대기후변화 시나리오의 경우, 태풍 Maemi를 모의한 경우에 비해 지역에 따라 약 29~110 cm(36~65%)의 해일고 상승이 나타났으며, 특히 마산에서는 기존의 재귀년도 200년 폭풍해일고를 최대 19cm 상회하는 것으로 나타났다.