• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영과학회/대한산업공학회 1999년도 춘계공동학술대회:정보화시대의 지식경영
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• pp.426-426
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• 1999

;There are many sources of uncertainty in a typical production and inventory system. There is uncertainty as to how many items customers will demand during the next day, week, month, or year. There is uncertainty about delivery times of the product. Uncertainty exacts a toll from management in a variety of ways. A spurt in a demand or a delay in production may lead to stockouts, with the potential for lost revenue and customer dissatisfaction. Firms typically hold inventory to provide protection against uncertainty. A cushion of inventory on hand allows management to face unexpected demands or delays in delivery with a reduced chance of incurring a stockout. The proposed strategies are used for the design of a probabilistic inventory system. In the traditional approach to the design of an inventory system, the goal is to find the best setting of various inventory control policy parameters such as the re-order level, review period, order quantity, etc. which would minimize the total inventory cost. The goals of the analysis need to be defined, so that robustness becomes an important design criterion. Moreover, one has to conceptualize and identify appropriate noise variables. There are two main goals for the inventory policy design. One is to minimize the average inventory cost and the stockouts. The other is to the variability for the average inventory cost and the stockouts The total average inventory cost is the sum of three components: the ordering cost, the holding cost, and the shortage costs. The shortage costs include the cost of the lost sales, cost of loss of goodwill, cost of customer dissatisfaction, etc. The noise factors for this design problem are identified to be: the mean demand rate and the mean lead time. Both the demand and the lead time are assumed to be normal random variables. Thus robustness for this inventory system is interpreted as insensitivity of the average inventory cost and the stockout to uncontrollable fluctuations in the mean demand rate and mean lead time. To make this inventory system for robustness, the concept of utility theory will be used. Utility theory is an analytical method for making a decision concerning an action to take, given a set of multiple criteria upon which the decision is to be based. Utility theory is appropriate for design having different scale such as demand rate and lead time since utility theory represents different scale across decision making attributes with zero to one ranks, higher preference modeled with a higher rank. Using utility theory, three design strategies, such as distance strategy, response strategy, and priority-based strategy. for the robust inventory system will be developed.loped.

• 재무관리연구
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.55-75
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• 1986

This article is to analyse the economic efficiency of capital market, which plays a role of resource allocation in terms of financial claims such as stock and bond. It provides various contributions to the welfare theoretical aspects of modern capital market theory. The key feature that distinguishes the theory described here from traditional welfare theory is the presence of uncertainty. Securities has time dimensions and the state and outcome of the future are really uncertain. This problem resulting from this uncertainty can be solved by complete market, but it has a weak power to explain real stock market. Capital Market is faced with the uncertainity because it is a kind of incomplete market. Individuals and firms in capital market made their consumption-investment decision by their own criteria, i. e. the maximization of expected utility form intertemporal consumption and the maximization of the market value of firm. We noted that allocative decisions that had to be made in the economy could be naturally subdivided into two groups. One set of decisions concerned the allocation of first-period resources among consumption $C_i$, investment in risky firms $I_j$, and riskless investment M. The other decisions concern the distribution among individuals of income available in the second period $Y_i(\theta)$. Corresponing to this grouping, the theoretical analysis of efficiency has also been dichotomized. The optimality of the distribution of output in the second period is distributive efficiency" and the optimality of the allocation of first-period resources is 'the efficiency of investment'. We have found in the distributive efficiency that the conditions for attainability is the same as the conditions for market optimality. The necessary and sufficient conditions for attainability or market optimality is that (1) all utility functions are such that -$\frac{{U_i}^'(Y_i)}{{U_i}^"(Y_i)}={\mu}_i+{\lambda}Y_i$-linear risk tolerance function where the coefficients ${\mu}_i$ and $\lambda$ are independent of $Y_i$, and (2) there are homogeneous expectations, i. e. ${\Large f}_i(\theta)={\Large f}(\theta)$ for every i. On the other hand, the efficiency of investment has disagreement about optimal investment level. The investment level for market rule will not generally lead to Pareto-optimal allocation of investment. This suboptimality is caused by (1)the difference of Diamond's decomposable production function and mean-variance valuation model and (2) the selection of exelusive investment or competitive investment. In conclusion, this article has made an analysis of conditions and processes of Pareto-optimal allocation of resources in capital marker and tried to connect with significant issues in modern finance.

• 한국환경복원기술학회지
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.159-170
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• 2013

The effect of climate change on urban woody plants remains difficult to predict in urban areas. Depending on its tolerances, a plant species may stay and survive or stay with slowly declining remnant populations under a changing climate. To predict those vulnerabilities on urban woody plants, this study suggests a basic bioclimatic envelop model of heat requirements, cold tolerance, chilling requirements and moisture requirements that are well documented as the 'climatic niche'. Each component of the 'climatic niche' is measured by the warmth index, the absolute minimum temperature, the number of chilling weeks and the water balance. Regarding the utility of the developed model, the selected urban plant's present probabilities are suggested in the future climate of Seoul. Both Korea and Japan's thermal thresholds are considered for a plant's optimal climatic niche. By considering the thermal thresholds of these two regions for the same species, the different responses observed will reflect the plant's 'hardening' process in a rising climate. The model illustrated that the subpolar plants Taxus cuspidata and Ulmus davidiana var. japonica are predicted to have low suitability in Seoul. The temperate plants Zelkova serrata and Pinus densiflora, which have a broad climatic niche, exhibited the highest present probability in the future. The subtropical plants Camellia japonica and Castanopsis cuspidata var. sieboldii may exhibit a modest growth pattern in the late 21C's future climatic period when an appropriate frost management scheme is offered. The model can be used to hypothesize how urban ecosystems could change over time. Moreover, the developed model can be used to establish selection guidelines for urban plants with high levels of climatic adaptability.

• 한국임상약학회지
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.131-137
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• 2018

Background: In South Korea, 22.3% of women ${\geq}50years$ of age and 37% of women ${\geq}70years$ of age visit the doctor to obtain treatment for osteoporosis. According to the analysis of the National Health Insurance Services claim data between 2008 and 2012, the number and incidence of hip and vertebral fractures increased during the same period. Denosumab, a newly marketed medicine in Korea, is the first RANK inhibitor. Methods: A cost-utility analysis was conducted from a societal perspective to prove the superiority of denosumab to alendronate. A Markov cohort model was used to investigate the cost-effectiveness of denosumab. A 6-month cycle length was used in the model, and all patients were individually followed up through the model, from their age at treatment initiation to their time of death or until 100 years of age. The model consisted of eight health states: well; hip fracture; vertebral fracture; wrist fracture; other osteoporotic fracture; post-hip fracture; post-vertebral fracture; and dead. All patients began in the well-health state. In this model, 5% discounted rate, two-year maximum offset time, and persistence were adopted. Results: The total lifetime costs for alendronate and denosumab were USD 5,587 and USD 6,534, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for denosumab versus alendronate was USD 20,600/QALY. Given the ICER threshold in Korea, the results indicated that denosumab was remarkably superior to alendronate. Conclusion: Denosumab is a cost-effective alternative to the oral anti-osteoporotic treatment, alendronate, in South Korea.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 1996년도 하계학술대회 논문집 B
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• pp.878-882
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• 1996

This paper discusses the definition and concepts, approach methodologies, capable application areas in electricity business, and tentative calculation of avoided generation costs based on the Korea's official long-term generation expansion plan. The objective to evaluate avoided costs of a resource is to supply decision makers with the breakeven cost of a targeting avoided resource. For the evaluation of avoided costs of the Korea's generation system, we consider the pseudo-DSM option which has 1,000MW peak savings, load factor with 70 percent, and life-time With 25 years as the avoided resource. The DSM resource can save the fuel and capacity additions of a electric utility during its life time. The capacity and fuel savings are evaluated from the two different cashflows with and Without the DSM option, which are generated on the basis of the generation system optimization model(WASP-II), independently. The breakeven kWh costs of the DSM option over this 25-year period is projected to be 34.1[won/kWh], which is composed of generation-capacity and fuel avoided costs with 101.139[won/kW] and 17.6[won/kWh], respectively.

• 한국축산식품학회지
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.236-242
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• 2010

The objective of this study was to investigate the potential of the application of kimchi LAB as starter culture in the production of fermented sausages. For this, the solid-state model media composed to simulate the substantial conditions of meat mixtures were fermented for 120 h after the treatment with different concentrations of kimchi (0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 3.0, and 5.0%) and lyophilized kimchi-powder (0.2 % and 0.5%). During the fermentation period, the growth of total viable cells and LAB, and the changes of pH and titratable acidity were investigated. The initial LAB counts ranged from 7.18 to 8.34 Log CFU/ mL for kimchi media and from 6.93 to 6.94 Log CFU/mL for kimchi-powder media depending on the added concentrations. The kimchi LAB in this study were not influenced by the immobilized condition for their adaptation and growth by showing no lag phase and thus acted similar as in the submerged medium. The initially increased counts reached around 9 Log CFU/ mL in 12 h independent of the concentrations of a ded kimchi. However, the growth and metabolic activity of kimchi-powder LAB were influenced by the immobilized condition. Supposedly, as the nutrient supply in solid-state depended solely on diffusion, these differences in the souring properties were caused by the LAB topography in the medium matrix. Nevertheless, the differences in the numbers of LAB between two media were less than 0.5 Log units and the pH drop in the solidstate batches was quite rapid and reached low values. Therefore, it can be assumed that kimchi and kimchi-powder LAB showed the utility as the substitute of commercial starter culture even without a rehydrating pretreatment.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제11권10호
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• pp.55-62
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• 2013

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to suggest a risk factor that significantly explains foreign currency risk premia. In recent years, some studies have found that the performance of the simultaneous consumption risk model improves considerably when tested on foreign currency portfolios, which are constructed based on the international interest rates differentials. However, this paper focuses on the long-run consumption risk factor. In our empirical research, we found that the real excess returns of high interest rate currency portfolios depreciate on average, when the future American long-run consumption growth rate appears low. This makes the high interest rate currency portfolios have relatively high risk premia. Meanwhile, the real excess returns of low interest rate currency portfolios appreciate on average, under the same conditions, which results in relatively low risk premia for these portfolios. Therefore, this long-run consumption risk factor might explain why low interest rate currencies do not appreciate as much as the interest rate differential, and why high interest rate currencies do not depreciate as much as the interest rate differential. Research design, data, methodology - In our explanation, we provide new evidence on the success of long-run consumption risks in currency risk premia by focusing on the long-run consumption risks borne by American representative investors. To uncover the hidden link between exchange rates and long-run consumption growth, we set the eight currency portfolios as our basic assets, which have been built based on the foreign interest rates of eighty countries. As these eight currency portfolios are rebalanced every year, the first group always contains the lowest interest rate currencies, and the last group contains the highest interest rate currencies. Against these basic eight currency portfolios, we estimate the long-run consumption risk model. We use recursive utility framework and the stochastic discount factor that depends on the present value of expected future consumption growth rates. We find that our model is optimized in the two-year period of constructing the durable consumption expectation factor. Our main results surprisingly surpass the performance of the existing benchmark simultaneous consumption model in terms of R², relatively risk aversion coefficient γ, and p-value of J-test. Results - The performance of our model is superior. R², relatively risk aversion coefficient γ, and p-value of J-test of our long-run durable consumption model are 90%, 93%, and 65.5%, respectively, while those of EZ-DCAPM are 87%, 113%, and 62.8%, respectively. Thus, we can speculate that the risk premia in foreign currency markets have been determined by the long-run consumption risk. Conclusions - The aggregate long-run consumption growth risk explains a large part of the average change in the real excess returns of foreign currency portfolios. The real excess returns of high interest rate currency portfolios depreciate on average when American long-run consumption growth rate is low, and the real excess returns of low interest rate currency portfolios appreciate under the same conditions. Thus, the low interest rate currency portfolios allow investors to hedge against aggregate long-run consumption growth risk.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제26권3B호
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• pp.279-289
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• 2006

최근에 수문시계열로부터 저차원의 비선형 거동을 재구성하고자 하는 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다. 이러한 관점에서 본 연구에서는 Support Vector Machine(SVM)을 이용하여 우수한 상태-공간 재구성 능력을 갖는 비선형 예측모형을 구성하여 Great Salt Lake(GSL) Volume에 적용하였다. SVM은 Kernel 함수로부터 유도된 고차원의 특성공간 안에서 선형함수의 가상공간을 이용하는 Machine Learning 방법론이다. 또한 SVM은 훈련자료로부터 얻어지는 평균제곱오차가 아닌 일반화된 오차를 최소화함으로써 상대적으로 기존 방법에 비해 적은 수의 매개변수와 과적합(over fitting)을 피하면서 비선형 함수의 최적화가 가능하다. 본 연구에서 제시한 SVM 회귀분석의 적용성은 미국의 GSL의 2주 간격 Volume을 대상으로 검토하였다. SVM을 이용한 비선형 예측모형은 GSL Volume의 2주(1-Step), 8주(4-Step)와 반복예측(Iterated Prediction, 121-Step)까지 적용되었다. 본 연구에서는 극치사상 즉, 급격한 감소 및 증가 구간을 예측하는데 있어서 훈련구간과 예측구간을 구분하여 모형의 신뢰성을 평가하였다. 예측결과SVM은 훈련자료로부터 적은 수의 관측치를 이용하여 동역학적 거동을 추출할 수 있었으며 실제 관측자료와 거의 유사한 예측이 가능함을 통계적 지표로 확인할 수 있었다. 따라서 비선형 수문시계열의 단기 예측을 위한 모형으로 적용이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국문헌정보학회지
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• 제8권
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• pp.183-207
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• 1981

Library standards have been the source of considerable controversy, whereas many problems are involved in developing stardard for university library collections. For evaluation purposes, standards should be precise, quantifiable and measurable. In the United States, however, standards for academic libraries are limited to qualitative statements and principles. Quantitative standards, when given, are ususally related to the number of population in the institution being served, or the prescribed quantitative objectives are often arbitrarily formulated by value judgements. The study in this paper attempts to explain the problems involved in developing quantitative standard for academic library collections. Two problems facing in the formulation of the optimal size of collection are identified. One is the theoretically faulty concept of adequacy of collection to meet the situations of diversity of university libraies, and the other is the difficulties in quantification and measurement, along with the lack of concept of adequacy of collection. However, quantification of adequate size of collection is proved to be useful on the pratical level, even though not valid theoretically. ACRL, Clapp/Jordan and Voigt developed formulas or models for setting the optimal size of a library collection for any particular university library. The main purpose of this study is the analysis of the above formulas. ACRL standard was drawn from obervation and analysis of statistcs in leading library collections. In academic field, this judgement appears to have been based on the assumption that a high-grade institution would be apt to have a good library collection. This study criticizes ACRL standard for its failure to include some determinants of measurements, and points out the limitations of the standard. In contrast. Clapp/Jordan developed a formula rather scientifically based upon bibliographical sources. This is similarly empirical but has the advantage of bringing into play the elements which make universities diverse in nature. Both ACRL and Clapp/Jordan formulas share two major defects. (1) the specific subject needs of the collection are not indiacted directly, and (2) percentage rate of growth is an indicator in measuring the potential utility of a collection. Thus both formulas failed to provide a basis for meaningful evaluation. Voigt further developed a model for determining acquisition rates for currently published materials based on bibliographic technique. Voigt model encourages experimentation with different programs and different allocations of input resources, designed to meet the needs of the library's particular population. Standard for university library collections can be formulated in terms of input(traditional indicator), or additionally, in terms of output(cost-effectiveness). Cost effectiveness is expressed as user satisfaction, ability to provide wanted materials within a reasonable time period. Thus simple quantitative method does not cover all the situations of diversity of university library collections, nor measures the effectiveness of collections. Valid standard could not be established without further research.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.263-274
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• 2013

본 연구에서는 다중위성 강수자료의 수문학적 적용성을 평가하기 위하여 Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP), Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Morphing technique(CMORPH) 등 전 지구 규모의 고해상도 다중위성 강수자료와 분포형 수문모형을 이용하여 유출모의를 수행하였다. 충주댐 유역에 대하여 2002년 1월 1일부터 2009년 12월 31일까지의 기간에 대하여 Coupled Routing and Excess Storage (CREST) 모형을 적용하였다. 분석기간은 준비기간(2002-2003년, 2006-2007년), 보정기간(2004-2005년), 그리고 검증기간(2008-2009년)으로 구분하여 모의를 수행하였다. 각 다중위성 강수자료를 지상관측자료와 비교결과, 강수의 계절적 변동특성은 잘 반영하고 있으나 연강수량합계 및 월평균강수량에서 TMPA는 과대추정을, GSMaP과 CMORPH는 과소추정하는 경향을 보여주었다. 또한 유출분석결과, TMPA를 제외한 GSMaP과 CMORPH의 충주댐 유역에 대한 수문학적 적용성이 매우 낮은 것을 알 수 있었으며, 향후 다중위성 강수자료의 활용에 앞서 통계적 보정이나 강수알고리즘에 대한 개선이 필요한 것으로 판단된다.