• 제목/요약/키워드: turnbull model

검색결과 9건 처리시간 0.17초

Turnbull 분포무관모형을 이용한 월악산국립공원의 자산가치 평가 (Estimating the Stock Value of Woraksan National Park Using Turnbull Distribution-Free Model)

  • 한상열
    • 한국산림과학회지
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    • 제96권3호
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    • pp.283-289
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    • 2007
  • 편익-비용분석은 국립공원 보전과 같은 공공투자 정책의 상대적 가치에 관련된 정보를 파악하는데 매우 유용한 분석도구이다. 편익과 비용이 화폐단위로 계산될 수 있으면 순편익을 계산하여 공공후생을 최대로 얻을 수 있는 정책적 대안을 규명할 수 있다. 그러나 국립공원에서 파생되는 재화와 용역은 일반시장에서 판매되지 않기 때문에 국립공원의 보존정책 결과를 금액으로 계산하는 것은 그리 쉽지 않다. 이 경우 비시장재의 편익가치를 측정하기 위하여 이선선택형 가상가치평가법이 가장 널리 적용된다. 본 연구는 이선선택형 가상가치평가법의 일종인 Turnbull 분포무관모형을 이용하여 월악산국립공원의 경제적 가치를 추정하고 최종적으로 자산가치를 평가하였다. 평가결과, 연간이용가치는 65억원, 연간보존가치는 1,374억원으로, 프로우(flow)인 연간총가치는 1,439억원으로 추정되었으며, 스톡(stock)인 총자산가치는 약 3조217억원으로 평가되었다.

양분선택형 조건부가치측정(CV) 자료의 추정방법에 따른 지불의사금액의 변동성 연구 (Study on Variability of WTP Estimates by the Estimation Methods using Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation Data)

  • 신영철
    • 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2016
  • 본 연구는 조기사망 위험 감소를 위한 지불의사금액에 대한 양분선택형 조건부가치측정(CV) 자료를 이용하여, 자의적인 모수적 분포(즉, 정규분포, 로지스틱분포, 로그정규분포, 지수분포)를 가정하여 도출하는 지불의사금액 대푯값(즉, 평균 내지 중앙값)의 변동성을 비교 검토하였다. 이를 위해 특정 모수적 분포라는 제약을 갖지 않는 Turnbull 비모수적 추정방법(nonparametric estimation method)에 의한 결과를 함께 비교 검토하면, 정책의사결정에서는 인정되기 어려운 수준의 WTP 대푯값들의 변동성이 확인되었다. 한편 Turnbull 비모수적 추정방법에 의한 WTP의 대푯값은 기본적으로 자의적 모수적 분포 가정에 의한 일종의 오지정 편의를 회피할 수 있다. 또한 Turnbull 비모수적 추정방법으로는 단일양분선택형 CV 자료이든 이중양분선택형 CV 자료이든 거의 유사한 추정치를 도출하고, 모수적 분포를 가정한 추정방법으로는 통계적으로 유의한 추정치를 얻지 못하는 상황에서도 통계적으로 유의한 추정치를 얻을 수 있는 강건성(robustness)을 보여주었다. 그러므로 양분선택형 CV 자료에서 특정 모수적 분포의 적합성을 판단하기 어려운 상황에서 자의적 모수적 분포의 가정에서 도출한 WTP의 대푯값들이 상당한 변동성을 보인다면, Turnbull 비모수적 추정방법에 의한 WTP의 평균 추정치가 정책의사결정에서 논란의 여지를 회피할 수 있는 비자의적이고 강건한 추정치가 될 수 있음을 확인할 수 있다.

환경오염으로 인한 위해도 감소에 대한 지불의사금액 추정에 관한 연구 (Estimation of Willingness to Pay for Reduction of Environmental Mortality Risk)

  • 김예신;이용진;박화성;남정모;김진흠;신동천
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • 제18권1호
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2003
  • To estimate the annual WTP for risk reduction of environmental problems such as outdoor and indoor air pollution, and drinking water contamination, a questionnaire survey was conducted by dichotomous contingent valuation method in Seoul. Several covariate models based on Turnbull, Weibull and Spike models were developed and applied to WTP estimation with uncertainty analysis. WTP estimates for risk reduction of air pollution were 13,000 won, 12,000 won, and 10,000 won per month in low-bounded Turnbull, Weibull and Spike models, respectively. The estimates for indoor air pollution were 17,000 won,20,000 won and 21,000 won and these for drinking water contamination were 10,000 won, 13,000 won and 14,000 won in each model, respectively. Goodness of fit for Weibull model was better than those for other models. WTP estimates for indoor air pollution were higher than those for other pollution problems.

경관보전직불제 도입을 위한 제주감귤(원)의 경관가치 평가 (Measuring Landscape Value of Jeju Island's Mandarin(Orchard) for the Introduction of Direct Payment System of the Landscape Preservation)

  • 고성보
    • 농촌계획
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    • 제14권1호
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    • pp.43-50
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    • 2008
  • The dichotomous-choice contingent valuation method is applied to estimate the landscape value of Jeju mandarin(orchard). A distribution-free approach, Turnbull empirical distribution model, is employed to solve negative willingness to pay and truncation problems. The data used are collected from the interviews with tourist about willingness-to-pay at the various donation amount levels of Jeju mandarin(orchard)'s landscape value. The evaluation result is shown that the average amount of willingness to pay for the Jeju mandarin's landscape value is 12,926 won per person with standard deviation of 1,874.7 won/person. When the number of Jeju visitors is considered, the economic value of Jeju mandarin's landscape rises every year(2005:64.89 billion won, 2011: 84.43 billion won). The average economic value of Jeju mandarin's landscape are estimated 59.65 billion won during 2000-2005 and 76.88 billion won during 2006-2011, respectively.

비모수적 방법을 이용한 도시농업의 다원적 기능 가치평가 (Valuation of Multi-functionality of Urban Agriculture using Turnbull Model)

  • 허주녕;김태곤
    • 한국유기농업학회지
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    • 제20권4호
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    • pp.431-445
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    • 2012
  • In this regard, urban agriculture is developing into a variety of shapes. Urban agriculture includes various types, such as industrial agriculture, experience agriculture, educational agriculture, exchange agriculture and cyclic agriculture. The result of evaluation on citizens' values about multi-functions provided by urban agriculture can be used for policy making to overcome crisis of urban agriculture due to urban development and industrialization and to vitalize urban agriculture. The willingness-to-pay for the maintenance fund was categorized into vegetable garden users, general consumers, and all respondents, for analysis. The estimation results for the valuation of multi-functionality were KRW 20,367 per household for general consumers; KRW 22,174 for urban agriculture users; and KRW 21,467 for all respondents.

경관보전직불제 도입을 위한 제주밭담의 경관가치 평가 (Measuring Landscape Value of Jeju Island's Stonewall Fencing Farming Land for the Introduction of Direct Payment System of the Landscape Preservation)

  • 고성보
    • 농촌계획
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    • 제13권4호
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2007
  • The dichotomous-choice contingent valuation method is applied to estimate the landscape value of Jeju Island's stonewall fencing farming land. A distribution-free approach, Turnbull empirical distribution model, is employed to solve negative willingness to pay and truncation problems. The data used are collected from the interviews with tourist about willingness-to-pay at the various donation amount levels of Jeju stonewall's landscape value. The evaluation result is shown that the average amount of willingness to pay for the Jeju stonewall fencing farming land is 3,001 won per meter with standard deviation of 511.0 won/m.

웹 정보탐색행위 모형의 비교 분석 연구 (A Comparative Study on Models of Web-based Information Seeking Behavior)

  • 김성진
    • 정보관리학회지
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    • 제21권2호
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    • pp.211-233
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    • 2004
  • 웹은 지금까지 연구되어온 전통적인 정보검색 시스템과는 차별되는 새로운 정보환경이므로 웹상에서 발생하는 이용자와 정보검색 시스템 간의 상호작용에 대한 이해를 위해 새로운 관점에서의 연구가 충분히 이루어져야 하며 이러한 연구를 뒷받침해줄 웹 기반 정보탐색 패러다임이 정착될 필요가 있다. 이러한 맥락에서 본 연구는 웹 정보탐색행위를 연구한 문헌에서 제시된 이론적 모형들을 검토하고 비교 분석하였다. Wang, Hawk, Tenopir, Hsieh-Yee, Choo, Detlor, Turnbul, Chun과 Cooper, Rieh, Spink의 연구에서 제시된 모형들이 논의되었다. 분석 결과, 웹 정보탐색 모형은 크게 상호작용 모형, 정보탐색행위 모형, 평가 모형으로 구분되며, 전통적인 정보탐색과정 모형에 비해 복합요인들의 상호작용과 정보탐색행위의 비선형적 관점이 강조되었다는 특징을 갖는다.

The Economic Value of Next-Generation Converged Communications and Broadcasting Services

  • Kang, Shin-Won;Cho, Sang-Sup;Lie, Han-Young
    • ETRI Journal
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    • 제27권6호
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    • pp.759-767
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    • 2005
  • This research is to substantially analyze the economic value of portable Internet (WiBro), WCDMA High Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA), WiBro+VoIP, and WiBro+DMB regarded as the next generation of broadcasting. Based on the empirical analysis of economic values, we provide the optimal paths of converged communications and broadcasting services related to WiBro. 1,000 Internet users in the Seoul and Gyeonggi areas were surveyed in their homes. The collected survey was calculated as an accurate economic value distribution for relevant services, and the average and mean were taken using a parametric logit model, semi-parametric Spike model, and nonparametric Turnbull and Kernel estimations in order to analyze the contingent economic value of the amount offered to the subjects of the analysis. The contingent value analysis results varied slightly according to the different methodologies; however, all showed the following common features. The economic value of WiBro, Internet-based WCDMA, VoIP, and DMB with WiBro appeared to be similar. Therefore, if WiBro and WCDMA (HSDPA) form a competitive relationship, the types of bundled services offered as portable Internet service and the supply point of such bundled services are expected to emerge in a strategic plan for stimulating service markets and the prior occupation of the market.

전통 사찰의 이용 및 보존 가치에 대한 경제적 평가 - 설악산 신흥사와 가야산 해인사를 중심으로 - (Economic Evaluation of Use and Conservation Values of Traditional Temples - In Case of Sinheungsa in Seolak Mountain and Hainsa in Gaya Mountain -)

  • 이영경;이병인;한상열
    • 한국조경학회지
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    • 제34권5호
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    • pp.84-99
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    • 2006
  • The traditional temples located in national parks have various functions, such as religious practice, tourist destination, and conservation for cultural and natural resources. One functions have implicit monetary values in terms of public benefits. The purpose of this study was to estimate both use and non-use conservation values for two traditional temples, Sinheungsa and Haeinsa, using the contingent valuation method. In the study, both single-bounded and double-bounded dichotomous choice methods were used in an application of Turnbull distribution-free model. A total of 659 visitors were interviewed, 350 in Sinheungsa and 309 in Haeinsa. The mean WTP (willingness to pay) for Sinheungsa using single-bounded method was 4,040 Won for the use value, 6,157 Won for the cultural conservation value, and 5,624 Won for the natural conservation value. The mean WTP for Haeinsa using single-bounded method was 6,463 Won for the use value, 8,769 Won for the cultural conservation value, and 8,013 Won for the natural conservation value. The total economic value of each temple accounted for 50% (Sinheungsa) and 80% (Haeinsa) of the total economic value of the associated national park. It was also found that the single-bounded method was more conservative than the double-bounded method in terms of value estimation. The WTP was highest for the cultural conservation value and lowest for the use values in both temples, with natural conservation values falling in the middle, which showed that people perceived traditional temples as the cultural heritage. Based on these results, it was suggested that traditional temples should be designated as an 'multiple heritage area' so that conservation can be used as the main criteria for various use programs.