• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.133-144
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• 2003

The current procedure of estimating accident reduction benefit shows fixed accident rates for each level of roads without considering the various characteristics of roadway geometries, and traffics. In this study, in order to solve the problems mentioned in the above, models were developed considering the characteristics of roadway alignments and traffic characteristics. The developed models can be used to estimate the accident rates on new or improved roads, In this study, only urban highways were included as a beginning stage. First of all. factors influencing accident rates were selected. Those factors such as traffic volumes. number of signalized intersections, the number of connecting roads, number of pedestrian traffic signals, existence of median barrier, and the number of road lane are also selected based upon the obtainability at the planning stage of roads. The relationship between the selected factors and accident rates shows strong correlation statistically. In this study, roads were classified into 4 groups based on number of lanes, level of roads and the existence of median barriers. The regression analysis had been performed for each group with actual data associated with traffic, roads. and accidents. The developed regression models were verified with another data set. In this study, in order to develop the proposed models, only data on a limited area were used. In order to represent whole area of the country with the developed models. the models should be re-analyzed with vast data.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.169-178
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• 2008

Level of Service (LOS) is one of ways to evaluate operational conditions. It is very important factor in evaluation especially for the facility of highways. However, some studies proved that ${\upsilon}/c$ ratio and accident rate is appeared like a second function which has a U-form. It means there is a gap between LOS and safety of highway facilities. Therefore, this study presents a method for evaluation of a signalized intersection which is considered both smooth traffic operation (delay) and traffic safety (accident). Firstly, as a result of our research, accident rates and EPDO are decreased when it has a big delay. In that reason, it is necessary to make a new Level of Service included traffic safety. Secondly, this study has developed a negative binominal regression model which is based on the relation between accident patterns and stream. Thirdly, standards of LOS are presented which is originated from calculation between annual delay costs and annual accident cost at each intersection. Lastly, worksheet form is presented as an expression to an estimation step of a signalized intersection with traffic accident prediction model and new LOS.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.22 no.3 s.27
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• pp.313-322
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• 1989

The present status of the traffic accident rate in Korea shows that it is the highest in the world with a continuously increasing trend. Human factors account for 90% of the causes of traffic accidents. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine some human factors related to traffic accidents by studying the relationship between health status and traffic accidents. To accomplish this purpose, all taxi companies located in the Seoul area were divided in three groups according to the number of taxi possessed, then some companies in each ?roup were randomly selected for study, and a total of 222 drivers in those selected companies were questioned and examined from April 15 to April 22, 1989. Seventy drivers among 222 had experienced a traffic accident. A $x^2$-test was performed on the data, then, factor analysis and discrminant analysis were executed with the following results: 1. The drivers complaining of gastroenteric symptoms numbered 110(49.5%), which was the major symptom among all drivers complaining of poor health. 2. In the primary analysis, variables related to traffic accidents were divided into general, occupational, and health characteristics. Drivers having no traffic accident experience and drivers having that experience were subjected to question about age, educational level, residential status, monthly average income, working hours and days, degree of satisfaction with their profession and homelife, degree of worry about health. degree of fatigue, medication, drunken driving, and illness, but there were no statistical significances. 3. In the factor analysis, the 8 health variables which cause traffic accidents were classified into 3 common factors which were perceived health factor, sleeping and drunken driving, and visual acuity and smoking factor. Perceived health was the factor which contributed most to explaining accidents. 4. In the discriminant analysis, a correct prediction rate of 68.0% was obtained in the factors of all the characteristics. 5. Degree of sttisfaction with their homelife and educational and economic factor in the general characteristics, degree of satisfaction with their profession in the occupational characteristics, and sleeping and drunken driving in the health characteristics were selected as statistically significant factors to discriminant the traffic accident. 6. Among the factors of the general, occupational, and health characteristics, degree of satisfaction with their homelife, driving experience, family factor, perceived factor were selected as the statistically significant factors.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.15-31
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• 2024

The characteristics of elderly traffic accidents were identified by reflecting the situation of the elderly population in Korea, which is entering an ultra-aging society, and the relationship between independent and dependent variables was analyzed by classifying traffic accidents of serious or higher and traffic accidents of minor or lower in elderly pedestrian traffic accidents using binomial variables. Data collection, processing, and variable selection were performed by acquiring data from the elderly pedestrian traffic accident analysis system (TAAS) for the past 10 years (from 13 to 22 years), and basic statistics and analysis by accident factors were performed. A total of 15 influencing variables were derived by applying the logistic regression model, and the influencing variables that have the greatest influence on the probability of a traffic accident involving severe or higher elderly pedestrians were derived. After that, statistical tests were performed to analyze the suitability of the logistic model, and a method for predicting the probability of a traffic accident according to the construction of a prediction model was presented.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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• v.53 no.9
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• pp.89-96
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• 2016

According to the promoting policy for bicycle riding, the bicycle road infrastructure in Korea has been widely established. As the number of bicycle rider increases, bicycle traffic accidents also increase year after year. In this paper, we analyze bicycle traffic accident data from 2007 to 2014 which is provided by Road Traffic Authority and present statistical results of bicycle traffic accidents. And also regression analysis is applied to predict the number of daily traffic accidents in Seoul using ASOS(Automated Synoptic Observing System) climate data observed in the Seoul sector which are provided by Korea Meteorological Administration. In addition, decision tree analysis techniques are used to forecast the level of traffic accidents severity. In the analytic results of this research, we expect that it will be helpful to establish the collective policy of bicycle accident data and protective strategy in order to reduce the number of bicycle accidents.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.1591-1601
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• 2013

In this study, It is conducted for novice drivers about driving behavior and psychological characteristics analysis to reduce traffic accident risk and provide the basic data of education program development. Therefore, this study classified by the category-specific characteristics and hazard prediction through survey of the novice driver and unpredictable behavior and psychological characteristics were studied. The novice and general characteristics and driving behavior with vehicle simulators, comparison and analysis of the novice driver traffic safety education basic research direction based on the statistical results. Prediction the results of this study, the Hazard of the driver, speeding, traffic violation, information providing omission, abrupt change, the number of accidents in all areas novice driver is high compared to the general driver. In addition, Novice driver showed a statistically significant level of Hazard compared to the general driver target novice drivers and the general ability to predict Hazard of violation, abrupt change, and a number of traffic accidents were omitted level of speeding and other information providing level drivers all showed similar results. Vehicle simulator. The experimental results showed that novice drivers compared to drivers poorly overall driving performance. It showed a notable difference in the number of collisions, especially novice drivers compared to drivers in complex road traffic conditions due to a lack of driving experience and learning ability are considered.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.20 no.7
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• pp.155-166
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• 2002

Since 1990s. there has been an increasing number of traffic accidents at intersection. which requires more urgent measures to insure safety on intersection. This study set out to analyze the road conditions, traffic conditions and traffic operation conditions on signalized intersection. to identify the elements that would impose obstructions in safety, and to develop a traffic accident prediction model to evaluate the safety of an intersection using the cop relation between the elements and an accident. In addition, the focus was made on suggesting appropriate traffic safety policies by dealing with the danger elements in advance and on enhancing the safety on the intersection in developing a traffic accident prediction model fir a signalized intersection. The data for the study was collected at an intersection located in Wonju city from January to December 2001. It consisted of the number of accidents, the road conditions, the traffic conditions, and the traffic operation conditions at the intersection. The collected data was first statistically analyzed and then the results identified the elements that had close correlations with accidents. They included the area pattern, the use of land, the bus stopping activities, the parking and stopping activities on the road, the total volume, the turning volume, the number of lanes, the width of the road, the intersection area, the cycle, the sight distance, and the turning radius. These elements were used in the second correlation analysis. The significant level was 95% or higher in all of them. There were few correlations between independent variables. The variables that affected the accident rate were the number of lanes, the turning radius, the sight distance and the cycle, which were used to develop a traffic accident prediction model formula considering their distribution. The model formula was compared with a general linear regression model in accuracy. In addition, the statistics of domestic accidents were investigated to analyze the distribution of the accidents and to classify intersections according to the risk level. Finally, the results were applied to the Spearman-rank correlation coefficient to see if the model was appropriate. As a result, the coefficient of determination was highly significant with the value of 0.985 and the ranks among the intersections according to the risk level were appropriate too. The actual number of accidents and the predicted ones were compared in terms of the risk level and they were about the same in the risk level for 80% of the intersections.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.780-790
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• 2022

Quantitative risk levels must be presented by analyzing the causes and consequences of accidents and predicting the occurrence patterns of the accidents. For the analysis of marine accidents related to vessel traffic, research on the traffic such as collision risk analysis and navigational path finding has been mainly conducted. The analysis of the occurrence pattern of marine accidents has been presented according to the traditional statistical analysis. This study intends to present a marine accident prediction model using the statistics on marine accidents related to vessel traffic. Statistical data from 1998 to 2021, which can be accumulated by month and hourly data among the Korean domestic marine accidents, were converted into structured time series data. The predictive model was built using a long short-term memory network, which is a representative artificial intelligence model. As a result of verifying the performance of the proposed model through the validation data, the RMSEs were noted to be 52.5471 and 126.5893 in the initial neural network model, and as a result of the updated model with observed datasets, the RMSEs were improved to 31.3680 and 36.3967, respectively. Based on the proposed model, the occurrence pattern of marine accidents could be predicted by learning the features of various marine accidents. In further research, a quantitative presentation of the risk of marine accidents and the development of region-based hazard maps are required.

• Journal of Auto-vehicle Safety Association
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.114-122
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• 2021

In this paper, an automated vehicle intersection collision accident was analyzed through simulation. Recently, the more automated vehicles are distributed, the more accidents related to automated vehicles occur. Accidents may show different trends depending on the sensor characteristics of the automated vehicle and the performance of the accident prevention system. Based on NASS-CDS (National Automotive Sampling System-Crashworthiness Data System) and TAAS (Traffic Accident Analysis System), four scenarios are derived and simulations are performed. Automated vehicles are applied with a virtual system consisting of an autonomous emergency braking system and algorithms that predict the route and avoid collisions. The simulations are conducted by changing the sensor angle, vehicle speed, the range of the sensor and vehicle speed range. A range of variables considered vehicle collision were derived from the simulation.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.32 no.6
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• pp.851-865
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• 2019

Discovering various features from one time series is complicated. In this paper, we introduce a multi aggregation prediction algorithm (MAPA) that uses the concepts of temporal aggregation and combining forecasts to find multiple patterns from one time series and increase forecasting accuracy. Temporal aggregation produces multiple time series and each series has separate properties. We use exponential smoothing methods in the next step to extract various features of time series components in order to forecast time series components for each series. In the final step, we blend predictions of the same kind of components and forecast the target series by the summation of blended predictions. As an empirical example, we forecast traffic accident counts using MAPA and observe that MAPA performance is superior to conventional methods.