• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.131-145
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• 2020

Purpose - The recent growth of South Korean products in the international market is the benchmark for both developed as well as developing countries. According to the development index, the role of international trade is indeed crucial for the development of the national economy. However, the visualization of the international trade profile of the country is the prerequisite of governmental policy decision-makers and guidance for forecasting of foreign trade. Design/methodology - We have utilized data visualization techniques in order to visualize the import & export product space and trade partners of South Korea. Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) were used to identify the Korean international trade diversification, whereas the time series approach is used to forecast the economy and foreign trade variables. Findings - Our results show that Chine, U.S, Vietnam, Hong Kong, and Japan are the leading trade partners of Korea. Overall, the ECI of South Korea is growing significantly as compared to China, Hong Kong, and other developed countries of the world. The expected values of total import and export volume of South Korea are approximately US$535.21 and US$ 781.23B, with the balance of trade US$ 254.02B in 2025. It was also observed from our analysis that imports & exports are equally substantial to the GDP of Korea and have a significant correlation with GDP, GDP per capita, and ECI. Originality/value - To maintain the growth rate of international trade and efficient competitor for the trade partners, we have visualized the South Korea trade profile, which provides the information of significant export and import products as well as main trade partners and forecasting.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.21-44
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• 2022

Purpose - This study quantifies sources of trade balance dynamics over the business cycle in Korea. Specifically, we quantify the relative importance of domestic and foreign factors on trade balance dynamics using a small open economy real business cycle (SOE-RBC) model and provide policy implications for stabilization policies. Aggregate productivity and interest rate spreads are considered domestic factors affecting the trade balance. A world interest rate (the U.S. interest rate) is considered a foreign factor. Design/methodology - Following Neumeyer and Perri (2005), we build the SOE-RBC model with three types of shocks: aggregate productivity, interest rate spread, and world interest shocks. The model is estimated by the generalized method of moments (GMM) using relevant business cycle statistics. The estimated model is used for quantifying the relative importance of domestic and foreign factors on trade balance dynamics in Korea. Findings - Our main findings can be summarized as follows: 85.64% of the trade balance fluctuations in Korea are explained by domestic factors, the remaining 14.35% by foreign factors. Particularly, trade balance dynamics are mostly accounted for by the change in aggregate productivity shocks (85.58%). World interest rate shocks considerably explain trade balance (14.35%), whereas the role of interest rate spread shocks that represent domestic risks is limited (0.08%). Although aggregate productivity is key in explaining trade balance dynamics in Korea, interest rates still have an essential role. This is because aggregate productivity changes induce interest rate spread variations and, thus, the trade balance significantly. The results suggest that government policies mitigating fluctuations in aggregate productivity would be effective for stabilization policies in Korea by reducing the trade balance volatility. Originality/value - Existing studies on the emerging market business cycle examine mostly Latin American countries, and the main object of the studies is the volatility of consumption rather than trade balance dynamics. Conversely, our study examines Korea rather than Latin American countries. Additionally, we examine sources of trade balance dynamics, which are relatively more important in Korea, rather than those of the volatility of consumption. Hence, we estimate the model to explicitly match moments related to trade balance in the data.

• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.341-350
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• 2023

Purpose - How are gains from trade distributed between countries when economic integration is achieved through free trade? The purpose of this paper is to answer this question. Design/methodology/approach - This study attempts to address the issue of distribution of trade gains between participating countries following economic integration in terms of positive economics. The analysis is therefore based on a theoretical methodology. Findings - First, commodity prices fall and consumer surplus increases in both large and small countries. Second, when economic integration into free trade is achieved, gains from trade always exist in small countries. However, the size of trade gains depends on the degree of difference from the market size of the partner country, the large country. However, the size of the gains from trade depends on the extent of difference between the market size of the large country. If the market size of a large country is much larger and there is a large difference, trade gains will be very large, whereas if the market size is similar, profits of domestic firm will decrease. Therefore, in that case, the size of the gains from trade becomes relatively small because only the gains from exchange exists. On the other hand, in a large country with a large market size, there is a possibility of trade gains only when the market size is similar to that of a small country, which is a trading partner. However, if there is a large difference in market size, the decrease in profits of domestic firm is relatively larger than the increase in consumer surplus due to trade, and rather, a trade loss occurs. Research implications or Originality - Our analysis contributes to filling the gaps in the literature regarding the distribution of gains from trade, and from a policy point of view, it is meaningful in examining the impact of market size, an important variable considered in regional economic integration of countries.

• 동아시아경상학회지
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• 제5권3호
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• pp.1-32
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• 2017

Purpose - This study is to analyze the main macroeconomic indicators in Russia and the leading countries- partners and to research GDP, the debt, the foreign trade and other indicators. This main indicator is using in regulation in the economic stability of country, of stability of trade with countries-partners. Research design, data, and methodology - This paper used the amount of data to be analyzed at the present stage, from the 2010 to 2015 in Russia. In order to assess trends of development, the array of data on the indicators used for the 1995-2017. The data analyzed using the methods of multivariate statistics and application of the software package Stat graphics. Results - Hypothesis 1. In the recent years GDP has tended to increase in the most countries of the world. In Russia and its structure of branch of economics is uneven. Hypothesis 2. The foreign trade turnover also has tended to grow. The foreign trade balance in Russia and in the leading countries-partners has a positive balance, dominated by the export of goods. Conclusions - This paper finds that the foreign trade turnover also has tends to grow. The foreign trade balance in Russia and in the leading countries-partners has a positive balance, dominated by the export of goods.

• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.299-312
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• 2021

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to analyze Trade Structure after Korea and Colombia FTA, and identify its problems and suggest measures that can be taken by the government and corporations to reinforce economic cooperation. Design/methodology/approach - To improve the level of contribution of the study, an empirical analysis is necessary. However, due to limited data access, the study will approach the topic of trade relations between Korea and Colombia with various statistics and literature. Findings - First, there is an urgent need for changes in import-export goods between Korea and Colombia, as trade is focused on specific items. Second, although foreign direct investment from Korea to the Colombia is centered in manufacturing and wholesale & retail, there should be different investment strategies by industries. Third, it is necessary to reinforce commercial cooperation. Research implications or Originality - The Free Trade Agreement between Korea and Colombia entered into force in 2016. Under the agreement, both countries will eliminated all tariffs within ten years after it takes effect. Reinforcing economic cooperation with Colombia is extremely important for Korea in terms of entering and dominating Colombian market. However, there is still a lack of research on the Colombia, and corporations that aim to enter Colombian market face difficulties due to lack of information. This study analyzes the recent trends of problems of trade between Korea and Colombia and suggests solutions for boosting trade to provide proper strategic guidelines for Korea that are planning to expand to Colombian market.

• 융합정보논문지
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.270-277
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• 2022

전세계적으로 서비스산업의 진전이 본격화되는 가운데 글로벌 무역에서 서비스가 차지하는 위상과 비중 역시 점차 높아지고 있다. 안정적이고 공정한 국제무역은 견고한 국제통상규범 위에 실현 가능한바 GATS 출범 이후 정체기에 있던 서비스무역규범에 관한 다자간 논의가 최근 상당한 성과를 보이고 있다. 서비스무역규범의 주요 이슈는 결국 서비스 자유무역에 영향을 미치는 회원국들의 다양한 서비스무역장벽이다. 최근 타결된 WTO의 「서비스 국내규제에 관한 복수국간 협상」은 면허, 자격요건, 기술표준 등 서비스무역과 관련된 개별국 차원의 국내 조치가 무역장벽이 되지 않도록 통일된 규범을 마련했다는데 의의가 있다. 이에 본고는 서비스무역규범의 적용 대상인 서비스무역장벽의 형태와 실태를 검토하고, 이를 완화하기 위한 노력으로써 최근까지의 다자간 서비스무역규범 논의 동향의 고찰을 통해 앞으로 지속적인 논의가 나아가야 할 방향을 제시하고자 하였다.

• 통상정보연구
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.47-72
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• 2016

그 동안 우리나라 정부의 통상분야에 대한 관심은 한 해 동안 교역활동의 흐름을 통해 최종적으로 산출된 숫자의 적(赤)과 흑(黑)이 의미하는 부호(+, -)에만 관심을 가졌다. 이제는 교역활동의 결과를 대리하는 그 숫자가 의미하는 숨어있는 공간정보에 주목할 때이다. 본 연구는 한미 양국이 제공하는 교역액 데이터의 공간정보를 활용하였다. 2003년부터 2015년까지 12년간의 교역데이터의 분석결과 분해가 가능한 공간정보를 교역물품 발생지, 경유지 그리고 최종목적지로 구분하였으며, 연구결과는 첫째, 일반적으로 대미 수출을 뜻하는 한국발 미국향 화물에 대한 공간정보의 특성을 2003년과 비교했을 때 2015년에는 발생지 측면에서 탈수도권화 현상이 나타났다. 국내 경유지 측면에서는 해상 및 항공화물의 비중이 각각 약76%, 23%로 분석되었다. 미국 경유지의 경우 미서부 항만의 경유비율이 줄어들고 있었으며, 상대적으로 미남부 항만의 경유는 증가하고 있었다. 화물의 최종목적지는 캘리포니아 주로의 수출비중이 가장 높았으나, 텍사스와 조지아 주의 화물성장세가 증대되고 있음을 확인하였다. 둘째, 일반적으로 대미 수입을 뜻하는 미국발 한국향 화물의 공간정보특성을 살펴보면 발생지 측면에서는 캘리포니아와 텍사스 주의 비중이 절대적으로 높은 편이다. 미국 내 경유지인 항만과 공항의 경유비율은 약60%, 40%의 비율로 항공화물의 비중이 높은 것으로 분석되었다. 국내의 경유지 중 공항은 인천공항이 절대적이었으며, 항만의 경우는 부산항의 점유율은 68.2%를 기록하여 12년 전과 큰 변화는 없어 영향력이 지속되고 있음을 알 수 있었다. 반면 평택당진항과 인천항과 같이 수도권에 인접한 항만의 성장세가 확인되었다. 본 연구는 12년간 한국과 미국의 교역액 데이터의 공간정보를 분해하여 양국의 교역구조를 발생지, 경유지, 목적지로 구조화하는데 목적이 있다.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제24권6호
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• pp.82-100
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• 2020

Purpose - This paper attempts to compare five free trade agreements with gender chapters ratified by Chile and Canada and derives lessons for Korea in terms of gender-aware trade policy. While Chile and Canada have three and two FTAs with gender chapter respectively, Korea has none so far, although it has already ratified an FTA with the two countries. Design/methodology - This study first investigates all the gender-provisions with the gender chapters, conducts a comparative analysis on the five chapters as well as a case study of one target FTA's implementation and achievements, and finally suggests policy implications for Korea's trade administration as well as trade-related agencies. Findings - According to the analysis, there are three phases in terms of advancement in gender-related trade policy. As Chile is in phase two and Canada is in phase three, Korea remains in phase one. It has a ministry related to gender within the government, but not within the OMT. It has statistics on female business, but not of women traders. It has a few gender-related provisions in its FTAs, but not a gender chapter. In this sense, new mandates related to gender-aware trade policy for OMT, KITA, and KOTRA should be provided to realize the concrete economic benefits resulting from empowering women traders and policies promoting them. Originality/value - Existing studies only focus on introducing gender-related international commitments and Korea's participation in them. This paper is the first attempt to compare actual gender chapters of five FTAs ratified by two countries with the most advanced gender chapters in the world. To gain benefits from the positive gender impact of trade agreements, negotiating and signing gender responsive FTA with future partners is one of the most efficient, as well as inclusive, trade policies urgently needed for Korea.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.543-552
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• 2012

Parrondo paradox is a counter-intuitive phenomenon where two losing games can be combined to win or two winning games can be combined to lose. When we trade stocks with a history-dependent Parrondo game rule (where we buy and sell stocks based on recent investment outcomes) we found Parrondo paradox in stock trading. Using stock data of the KRX from 2008 to 2010, we analyzed the Parrondo paradoxical cases in the Korean stock market.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권6호
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• pp.157-172
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• 2020

This study attempts to analyze trade flows between Vietnam and China in order to understand the mutual influence of bilateral trade relations. China is a country with the world's leading economic potential. China and Vietnam are neighboring countries sharing a border of 1,281 km. Trade relations between the two countries are a necessity and, with a right policy, are beneficial to both. Vietnam has a trade deficit with China. This situation is exacerbated by the continuing rise in the gap. Vietnam trade deficit from China was USD12.5 billion in 2010, increasing to USD24 billion in 2018. Data are extracted from the 2015 national input-output tables of Vietnam and China as well as Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey statistics. The research identified 36 sectors of bilateral input-output trade between Vietnam and China. A bilateral output-input model is applied to analyze how final demand and use of input in the production of this country induces output and value added of the other country. The results show that China benefits more from Vietnam's production and consumption than Vietnam does. Vietnam's inter-sector structure does not stimulate domestic production due to the absence of supporting products as inputs in the production process.