• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.109 no.3
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• pp.259-270
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• 2020

Extreme weather events, such as heat and drought, have occurred frequently over the past two decades. This has led to continuous reports of cases of forest damage due to physiological stress, not pest damage. In 2014, pine trees were collectively damaged in the forest genetic resources reserve of Sogwang-ri, Uljin, South Korea. An investigation was launched to determine the causes of the dieback, so that a forest management plan could be prepared to deal with the current dieback, and to prevent future damage. This study aimedto 1) understand the topographic and structural characteristics of the area which experienced pine tree dieback, 2) identify the main causes of the dieback, and 3) predict future risk areas through the use of machine-learning techniques. A model for identifying risk areas was developed using 14 explanatory variables, including location, elevation, slope, and age class. When three machine-learning techniques-Decision Tree, Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were applied to the model, RF and SVM showed higher predictability scores, with accuracies over 93%. Our analysis of the variable set showed that the topographical areas most vulnerable to pine dieback were those with high altitudes, high daily solar radiation, and limited water availability. We also found that, when it came to forest stand characteristics, pine trees with high vertical stand densities (5-15 m high) and higher age classes experienced a higher risk of dieback. The RF and SVM models predicted that 9.5% or 115 ha of the Geumgang Pine Forest are at high risk for pine dieback. Our study suggests the need for further investigation into the vulnerable areas of the Geumgang Pine Forest, and also for climate change adaptive forest management steps to protect those areas which remain undamaged.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.38 no.4 s.173
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• pp.435-450
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• 2005

The purpose of the study is to analyze the hydrogeochemical characteristics by multivariate statistical method, to interpret the hydrogeochemical processes for the new variables calculated from principal components analysis (PCA), and to infer the groundwater flow and circulation mechanism by applying the geostatistical methods for each element and principal component. Chloride and nitrate are the most influencing components for groundwater quality, and the contents of $NO_3$ increased by the input of agricultural activities show the largest variation. The results of PCA, a multivariate statistical method, show that the first three principal components explain $73.9\%$ of the total variance. PC1 indicates the increase of dissolved ions, PC2 is related with the dissolution of carbonate minerals and nitrate contamination, and PC3 shows the effect of cation exchange process and silicate mineral dissolution. From the results of experimental semivariogram, the components of groundwater are divided into two groups: one group includes electrical conductivity (EC), Cl, Na, and $NO_3$, and the other includes $HCO_3,\;SiO_2,$ Ca, and Sr. The results for spatial distribution of groundwater components showed that EC, Cl, and Na increased with approaching the coastal line and nitrate has close relationship with the presence of agricultural land. These components are also correlated with the topographic features reflecting the groundwater recharge effect. The kriging analysis by using principal components shows that PC 1 has the different spatial distribution of Cl, Na, and EC, possibly due to the influence of pH, Ca, Sr, and $HCO_3$ for PC1. It was considered that the linear anomaly zone of PC2 in western area was caused by the dissolution of carbonate mineral. Consequently, the application of multivariate and geostatistical methods for groundwater in the study area is very useful for determining the quantitative analysis of water quality data and the characteristics of spatial distribution.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.1-28
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• 2019

This study analyzed the density and mortality rate of Korean fir at 9 sites where individuals of Korean firs were marked into the live and dead trees with coordinates on orthorectified aerial images by digital photogrammetric system. As a result of the analysis, Korean fir in each site showed considerable heterogeneity in density and mortality rate depending on the location within site. This make it possible to assume that death of Korean fir can occur by specific factors that vary depending on the location. Based on the analyzed densities and mortality rates of Korea fir, we investigated the correlation between topographic factors such as altitude, terrain slope, drainage network, solar radiation, aspect and the death of Korean fir. The density of Korean fir increases with altitude, and the mortality rate also increases. A negative correlation is found between the terrain slope and the mortality rate, and the mortality rate is higher in the gentle slope where the drainage network is less developed. In addition, it is recognized that depending on the aspect, the mortality rate varies greatly, and the mean solar radiation is higher in live Korean fir-dominant area than in dead Korean fir-dominant area. Overall, the mortality rate of Korean fir in Mt. Halla area is relatively higher in areas with relatively low terrain slope and low solar radiation. Considering the results of previous studies that the terrain slope has a strong negative correlation with soil moisture and the relationship between solar radiation and evaporation, these results lead us to infer that excess soil moisture is the cause of Korean fir mortality. These inferences are supported by a series of climate change phenomena such as precipitation increase, evaporation decrease, and reduced sunshine duration in the Korean peninsula including Jeju Island, increase in mortality rate along with increased precipitation according to the elevation of Mt. Halla and the vegetation change in the mountain. It is expected that the spatial patterns in the density and mortality rate of Korean fir, which are controlled by topography such as altitude, slope, aspect, solar radiation, drainage network, can be used as spatial variables in future numerical modeling studies on the death or decline of Korean fir. In addition, the method of forest distribution survey using the orthorectified aerial images can be widely used as a numerical monitoring technique in long - term vegetation change research.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.111 no.4
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• pp.461-472
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• 2022

Natural and anthropogenic factors cause forest types to continuously change. Since the ratio of forest area by forest type is important information for identifying the characteristics of national forest resources, an accurate understanding of the prospect of forest type change is required. The study aim was to use National Forest Inventory (NFI) time-series data to understand the characteristics of forest type change and to estimate future prospects of nationwide forest type change. We used forest type change information from the fifth and seventh NFI datasets, climate, topography, forest stand, and disturbance variables related to forest type change to analyze trends and characteristics of forest type change. The results showed that the forests in Korea are changing in the direction of decreasing coniferous forests and increasing mixed and broadleaf forests. The forest sites that were changing from coniferous to mixed forests or from mixed to broadleaf forests were mainly located in wet topographic environments and climatic conditions. The forest type changes occurred more frequently in sites with high disturbance potential (high temperature, young or sparse forest stands, and non-forest areas). We used a climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) to establish a forest type change model (SVM) to predict future changes. During the 40-year period from 2015 to 2055, the SVM predicted that coniferous forests will decrease from 38.1% to 28.5%, broadleaf forests will increase from 34.2% to 38.8%, and mixed forests will increase from 27.7% to 32.7%. These results can be used as basic data for establishing future forest management strategies.