• Title/Summary/Keyword: time-variant system reliability

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Lifetime Reliability Analysis of Irrigation System (관개조직의 수명기간 신뢰성 해석)

  • Kim Han-Joong;Lee Jeong-Jae;Im Sang-Joon
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.35-44
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    • 2003
  • A system reliability method is proposed to decide reliable serviceability of agricultural irrigation system. Even though reliability method is applied to real engineering situations involving actual life environments and maintaining costs, a number of Issues arise as a modeling and analysis level. This article use concepts that can be described the probability of failure with time variant and series-parallel system reliability analysis model. A proposed method use survivor function that can simulate a time-variant performance function for a lifetime before it is required essential maintenance or replacement to define a target probability of failure in agricultural irrigation canal. In the further study, it is required a relationship between a state of probability of failure and current serviceability to make the optimum repair strategy to maintain appropriate serviceability of an irrigation system.

Probabilistic-based prediction of lifetime performance of RC bridges subject to maintenance interventions

  • Tian, Hao;Li, Fangyuan
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.499-521
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, a probabilistic- and finite element-based approach to evaluate and predict the lifetime performance of reinforced concrete (RC) bridges undergoing various maintenance actions is proposed with the time-variant system reliability being utilized as a performance indicator. Depending on their structural state during the degradation process, the classical maintenance actions for RC bridges are firstly categorized into four types: Preventive type I, Preventive type II, Strengthening and Replacement. Preventive type I is used to delay the onset of steel corrosion, Preventive type II can suppress the corrosion process of reinforcing steel, Strengthening is the application of various maintenance materials to improve the structural performance and Replacement is performed to restore the individual components or overall structure to their original conditions. The quantitative influence of these maintenance types on structural performance is investigated and the respective analysis modules are written and inputted into the computer program. Accordingly, the time-variant system reliability can be calculated by the use of Monte Carlo simulations and the updated the program. Finally, an existing RC continuous bridge located in Shanghai, China, is used as an illustrative example and the lifetime structural performance with and without each of the maintenance types are discussed. It is felt that the proposed approach can be applied to various RC bridges with different structural configurations, construction methods and environmental conditions.

Comparison of Storage Lifetimes by Variance Assumption using Accelerated Degradation Test Data (파괴적 가속열화시험 데이터의 분산가정에 따른 수명비교)

  • Kim, Jonggyu;Back, Seungjun;Son, Youngkap;Park, Sanghyun;Lee, Moonho;Kang, Insik
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.173-179
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    • 2018
  • Estimating reliability of a non-repairable system using the degradation data, variance assumption such as homogeneity (constant) or heteroscedasticity (time-variant) could affect accuracy of reliability estimation. This paper showed reliability estimation and comparison results under normal conditions using accelerated degradation data obtained from destructive measurements, according to variance assumption of the data at each measurement time. Degradation data from three accelerated conditions with stress factors of temperature and humidity were used to estimate reliability. The $B_{10}$ lifetime was estimated as 1243.8 years by constant variance assumption, and 18.9 years by time-variant variance. And variance assumption provided different analysis results of important stresses to reliability. Thus, accurate assumption of variance at each measurement time is required when estimating reliability using degradation data of a non-repairable system.

Adaptive kernel method for evaluating structural system reliability

  • Wang, G.S.;Ang, A.H.S.;Lee, J.C.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.115-126
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    • 1997
  • Importance sampling methods have been developed with the aim of reducing the computational costs inherent in Monte Carlo methods. This study proposes a new algorithm called the adaptive kernel method which combines and modifies some of the concepts from adaptive sampling and the simple kernel method to evaluate the structural reliability of time variant problems. The essence of the resulting algorithm is to select an appropriate starting point from which the importance sampling density can be generated efficiently. Numerical results show that the method is unbiased and substantially increases the efficiency over other methods.

Study for comparison of storage lifetimes estimation between constant and time-variant variance of degradation data (열화데이터의 등분산 가정에 따른 저장수명예측 비교 연구)

  • Back, Seungjun;Son, Youngkap;Park, Sanghyun;Lee, Munho;Kang, Insik
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.154-156
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    • 2017
  • Constant variance of degradation data over time has been generally assumed to estimate storage lifetime using destructive, accelerated degradation data over time. However, performance data of ammunitions deteriorate over time, and the standard deviation would tend to increase over time. This paper shows storage lifetime comparison results for constant variance and time-variant variance assumptions of degradation data over time, and proposes that time-variant variance assumption should be considered to increase accuracy in lifetime estimation.

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A Dynamic OHT Routing Algorithm in Automated Material Handling Systems (자동화 물류시스템 내 차량 혼잡도를 고려한 무인운반차량의 동적 경로 결정 알고리즘)

  • Kang, Bonggwon;Kang, Byeong Min;Hong, Soondo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.40-48
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    • 2022
  • An automated material handling system (AMHS) has been emerging as an important factor in the semiconductor wafer manufacturing industry. In general, an automated guided vehicle (AGV) in the Fab's AMHS travels hundreds of miles on guided paths to transport a lot through hundreds of operations. The AMHS aims to transfer wafers while ensuring a short delivery time and high operational reliability. Many linear and analytic approaches have evaluated and improved the performance of the AMHS under a deterministic environment. However, the analytic approaches cannot consider a non-linear, non-convex, and black-box performance measurement of the AMHS owing to the AMHS's complexity and uncertainty. Unexpected vehicle congestion increases the delivery time and deteriorates the Fab's production efficiency. In this study, we propose a Q-Learning based dynamic routing algorithm considering vehicle congestion to reduce the delivery time. The proposed algorithm captures time-variant vehicle traffic and decreases vehicle congestion. Through simulation experiments, we confirm that the proposed algorithm finds an efficient path for the vehicles compared to benchmark algorithms with a reduced mean and decreased standard deviation of the delivery time in the Fab's AMHS.

A Study of Valve-train Life Time Estimate in Engine Durability Test (2) (엔진내구시험을 통한 Valve Train 수명예측에 관한 연구 (2))

  • Kim, Jaejin;Lee, Hwanhui;Myung, Wanghee;Min, Byengdu
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.75-80
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    • 2014
  • In previous study, make an attempt to estimate exhaust valve seat and seat-ring wear acceleration factor for engine durability test with measuring and consideration of wear mechanism. But found abnormal initial wear rate in exhaust valve seat-ring. And have to improve exhaust valve seat-ring wear rate for reliability reason, because next GDI/Turbo engine is based on this engine and GDI/Turbo engine have higher combustion pressure and higher thermal load. In this study, Trying to find the cause of abnormal wear factor, improve valve-train durability by change specification & design of parts and verify variant parts for improving durability of valve-train. And then I would like to propose a design guide line of valve-train system in a reliability point of view, besides make a complement of previous study.

Development of a Storage-Reliability Estimation Method Using Quantal Response Data for One-Shot Systems with Low Reliability-Decreasing Rates (미소한 신뢰도 감소율을 가지는 원샷 시스템의 가부반응 데이터를 이용한 저장 신뢰도 추정방법 개발)

  • Jang, Hyun-Jeung;Son, Young-Kap
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.35 no.10
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    • pp.1291-1298
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    • 2011
  • This paper proposes a new reliability estimation method for one-shot systems using quantal response data, which is based on a parametric estimation method. The proposed method considers the time-variant failure ratio of the quantal response data and it can overcome the problems in parametric estimation methods. Seven reliability estimation methods in the literature were compared with the proposed method in terms of the accuracy of reliability estimation in order to verify the proposed method. To compare the accuracy of reliability estimation, the SSEs (Sum of Squared Error) of the reliability estimation results for the different estimation methods were evaluated according to the various numbers of samples tested. The proposed method provided more accurate reliability estimation results than any of the other methods from the results of the accuracy comparison.

A Study of Optimal Ratio of Data Partition for Neuro-Fuzzy-Based Software Reliability Prediction (뉴로-퍼지 소프트웨어 신뢰성 예측에 대한 최적의 데이터 분할비율에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Un
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.8D no.2
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    • pp.175-180
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    • 2001
  • This paper presents the optimal fraction of validation set to obtain a prediction accuracy of software failure count or failure time in the future by a neuro-fuzzy system. Given a fixed amount of training data, the most popular effective approach to avoiding underfitting and overfitting is early stopping, and hence getting optimal generalization. But there is unresolved practical issues : How many data do you assign to the training and validation set\ulcorner Rules of thumb abound, the solution is acquired by trial-and-error and we spend long time in this method. For the sake of optimal fraction of validation set, the variant specific fraction for the validation set be provided. It shows that minimal fraction of the validation data set is sufficient to achieve good next-step prediction. This result can be considered as a practical guideline in a prediction of software reliability by neuro-fuzzy system.

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Hospital Room Environment Monitoring System based on Wireless Communication (무선통신에 기반한 병실 환경 모니터링 시스템)

  • Lee, Seung-Chul;Kim, Nam-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2022.10a
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    • pp.28-30
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    • 2022
  • Recently, the number of confirmed cases has increased again with the new variant of COVID-19. Quarantine is recommended, especially to prevent the rapidly increasing spread, as environmental controls, such as minimizing contact with others, can increase safety. In addition, there are often cases in which the patient's condition cannot be confirmed from the standpoint of a guardian, such as visitation being prohibited under certain conditions. At this time, the sensor data values of oxygen, carbon dioxide concentrations, temperature and humidity, and alcohol, which are medical gases used in hospitals, are collected remotely using ZigBee wireless communication technology. Design a system that can be stored and monitored in a database. We propose an environmental monitoring system, which is a visualization system designed to allow hospitals to check and feedback data on the managed environment, and to give reliability to parents.

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