• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.39 no.2
• /
• pp.75-98
• /
• 2017

This paper aims to estimate the social discount rate (SDR) rather than dig into its theoretical foundation. As SDRs can be derived by investigating both the rate of return on investment and the social time preference rate, we estimate the marginal productivity of both private and public capital and the time preference rate based on the Euler equation. In order to provide a single representative SDR, the weighted averages of the marginal productivity and time preference rate, whose weights are determined by the flow of funds data reflecting the social demand of funds, are presented. Based on the empirical results, we argue that the marginal productivity of private capital stands in the middle of the 3% range while that of public capital varies from 4.5% to 8.6%, with the time preference rate showing a decreasing trend from 3.2% in the early 2000s to 1.2% by around 2030. The single representative SDR or the weighted SDR is estimated to be approximately 3.0~4.5% and expected to continue its downward trend for the foreseeable future.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.26 no.1
• /
• pp.27-34
• /
• 2019

We study the effect of detrending on the coherency between two time series processes. Many economic and financial time series variables include nonstationary components; however, we analyze the two most popular cases of stochastic and deterministic trends. We analyze the asymptotic behavior of coherency under incorrect detrending, which includes the cases of first-differencing the deterministic trend process and, conversely, the time trend removal of the unit root process. A simulation study is performed to investigate the finite sample performance of the sample coherency due to incorrect detrending. Our work is expected to draw attention to the possible distortion of coherency when the series are incorrectly detrended. Further, our results can extend to various specification of trends in aggregate time series variables.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
• /
• 2004.05b
• /
• pp.85-87
• /
• 2004

We described the trend of diagnosis of technology in this paper Diagnosing key technologies in NTRM were explained. Development history of maintenance technology was described and the roles of diagnosis technology for maintenance technology were analyzed from past time to future.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Marine Engineers Conference
• /
• 2005.11a
• /
• pp.73-74
• /
• 2005

Shipping company and operators have to manage well to keep shipping schedules without problems in main engine. Specially operators have to operate main engine within the limit of operation point, and adjust related parameters to be operated safely and continuously. Also operators have ability to analyze fouling condition of hull through comparing data gotten from P-V curve and performance results of new building ships in trial with service ships. In this study, not only compared main engine performance results in shop trial and sea trial, but also investigated performance trend in accordance with the time elapsed for the service ship's diesel engine. They were confirmed as follows. First, shop trial load is higher than sea trial load but ship's speed is satisfied with owner's contract speed. Second as time goes by, load of service ship increases steadily and other parameters related with main engine shows variable change depend on main engine load increasing.

• KIEAE Journal
• /
• v.10 no.5
• /
• pp.123-129
• /
• 2010

This study aimed at analyzing the trend of carbon dioxide emission for direct and indirect areas by using inter industry relations table between 2000, 2003 and 2005 in the key building materials and components. Results of this study are as follows; First, the material and components for this study was selected in 20 industries of products such as sand, gravel, cement, concrete articles, rebar, and steel bar. Second, among the 20 selected key building materials, the group with the highest carbon-dioxide emission was shown in ready-mixed concrete, concrete articles, and primary aluminum goods. Third, as a result of analyzing the changes to the units of carbon dioxide emission according to passage of time, the number of items which is changed in such as sustained increase or decrease over time was insignificant in carbon-emission change trend.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.15 no.2
• /
• pp.101-118
• /
• 2005

Atmospheric ozone changes temporally and spatially according to both anthropogenic and natural causes. It is essential to quantify the natural contributions to total ozone variations for the estimation of trend caused by anthropogenic processes. The aims of this study are to understand the intrinsic natural variability of long-term total ozone changes and to estimate more reliable ozone trend caused by anthropogenic ozone-depleting materials. For doing that, long-term time series for Seoul of monthly total ozone which were measured from both ground-based Dobson Spectrophotometer (Beck #124)(1985-2004) and satellite TOMS (1979-1984) are analyzed for selected period, after dividing the whole period (1979~2004) into two periods; the former period (1979~1991) and the latter period (1992~2004). In this study, ozone trends for the time series are calculated using multiple regression models with explanatory natural oscillations for the Arctic Oscillation(AO), North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO), North Pacific Oscillation(NPO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO), Quasi Biennial Oscillation(QBO), Southern Oscillation(SO), and Solar Cycle(SC) including tropopause pressure(TROPP). Using the developed models, more reliable anthropogenic ozone trend is estimated than previous studies that considered only QBO and SC as natural oscillations (eg; WMO, 1999). The quasi-anthropogenic ozone trend in Seoul is estimated to -0.12 %/decade during the whole period, -2.39 %/decade during the former period, and +0.10 %/decade during the latter period, respectively. Consequently, the net forcing mechanism of the natural oscillations on the ozone variability might be noticeably different in two time intervals with positive forcing for the former period (1979-1991) and negative forcing for the latter period (1992-2004). These results are also found to be consistent with those analyzed from the data observed at ground stations (Sapporo, Tateno) of Japan. In addition, the recent trend analyses for Seoul show positive change-in-trend estimates of +0.75 %/decade since 1997 relative to negative trend of -1.49 %/decade existing prior to 1997, showing -0.74 %/decade for the recent 8-year period since 1997. Also, additional supporting evidence for a slowdown in ozone depletion in the upper stratosphere has been obtained by Newchurch et al.(2003).

• Ocean and Polar Research
• /
• v.28 no.4
• /
• pp.415-423
• /
• 2006

Interannual variation and long-term trends of coastal sea surface temperature (SST) in Korea were investigated by analyzing 27 coastal SST time series from 1969 to 2004. Long-term linear increasing trend was remarkable with the rate over $0.02^{\circ}C/year$ at almost all the stations. The slope of long-term linear trend was larger at the stations along the eastern coast than in the western and southern regions. It was also noticeable that there was a common tendency of interannual variability with the period of 3-5 years at most of the stations. SST was lower in the 1970's and early 1980's while it was higher in the 1990's and early 2000's after the increase in the late 1980's. The pattern of the interannual variability of SST was similar to that of air temperature. Increasing trend of minimum SST in winter was obvious at most stations na it was larger along the eastern coast, while the linear trend of maximum SST in summer was less definite. Therefore, the decreasing tendency of annual amplitude was mainly due to the increasing tendency of SST in winter.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• v.27 no.3
• /
• pp.179-211
• /
• 2023

This paper investigates the relationship between the spread of COVID-19 and time preference. In contrast to previous studies that compared time preferences before and during the pandemic, this study estimates time preferences during the COVID-19 period using eight surveys conducted over two years. Additionally, a regression analysis was conducted on the number of new COVID-19 cases and the time elapsed since the outbreak, with estimated time preference as the dependent variable. Despite a small sample size, statistically significant results were obtained, showing that as the number of new cases increased, time preference also increased. However, this effect diminished over time and disappeared by the end of 2021 in Japan. This may be due to the public's growing familiarity with the risks of COVID-19 and the availability of vaccines and treatments. Despite a significant increase in new cases in 2022, time preference was lower than immediately after the outbreak, and this was reflected in private investments. Immediately after the outbreak of COVID-19, private investments decreased by 12% compared to the previous year, but the investments are returning in 2022 despite the surge in the number of cases. The trend of time preference explains the trend of Japanese private investments very well.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
• /
• v.33 no.1
• /
• pp.25-35
• /
• 2017

Spatial downscaling with fine resolution auxiliary variables has been widely applied to predict precipitation at fine resolution from coarse resolution satellite-based precipitation products. The spatial downscaling framework is usually based on the decomposition of precipitation values into trend and residual components. The fine resolution auxiliary variables contribute to the estimation of the trend components. The main focus of this study is on quantitative analysis of impacts of trend component estimates on predictive performance in spatial downscaling. Two regression models were considered to estimate the trend components: multiple linear regression (MLR) and geographically weighted regression (GWR). After estimating the trend components using the two models,residual components were predicted at fine resolution grids using area-to-point kriging. Finally, the sum of the trend and residual components were considered as downscaling results. From the downscaling experiments with time-series Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B43 precipitation data, MLR-based downscaling showed the similar or even better predictive performance, compared with GWR-based downscaling with very high explanatory power. Despite very high explanatory power of GWR, the relationships quantified from TRMM precipitation data with errors and the auxiliary variables at coarse resolution may exaggerate the errors in the trend components at fine resolution. As a result, the errors attached to the trend estimates greatly affected the predictive performance. These results indicate that any regression model with high explanatory power does not always improve predictive performance due to intrinsic errors of the input coarse resolution data. Thus, it is suggested that the explanatory power of trend estimation models alone cannot be always used for the selection of an optimal model in spatial downscaling with fine resolution auxiliary variables.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• v.17 no.1
• /
• pp.407-412
• /
• 2016

Background: Considering the rising incidence of thyroid cancer worldwide, the aim of our study was to investigate the temporal trends in the incidence of this cancer in a large population of Iranian patients. Materials and Methods: We used the Iran Cancer Data System (ICDS) Registry to assess the thyroid cancer trend from 2004 to 2010 with regard to different genders, age groups, and morphologies. To do this we analyzed the data of 10,913 new cases of thyroid cancer that occurred during these years. Results: The incidence rate (per one year) of thyroid cancer was 2.20 per 100,000 persons between 2004 and 2010 in Iran. Papillary thyroid cancer was the most common histology type, with an annual rate of 0.29 in Iran. The highest rate of prevalence in thyroid cancer was observed at the age of 45 years at the time of diagnosis. We found a female-to-male ratio of 2 in Iran. A significant decrease was detected in the trend of thyroid cancer in children <19y, which was not correlated to the trend of older patients. Conclusions: As expected, the trend of thyroid cancer increased over the 7 years, primarily contributed by papillary thyroid cancer. A rising pattern of incidence was seen in all the age groups except patients aged under 19 years.