• Proceedings of KOSOMES biannual meeting
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• 2017.04a
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• pp.190-190
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• 2017

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.605-616
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• 2000

Three primary interests frequently raised by mortgage companies are introduced and the corresponding statistical approaches for the default probability in mortgage companies are examined. Statistical models considered in this paper are time series, logistic regression, decision tree, neural network, and discrete time models. Usage of the models is illustrated using an artificially modified data set and the corresponding models are evaluated in appropriate manners.

• Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.329-336
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• 2008

Recently, causality analysis of source time series extracted from EEG or MEG signals is becoming of great importance in human brain mapping studies and noninvasive diagnosis of various brain diseases. Two approaches have been widely used for the analyses: one is independent component analysis (ICA), and the other is multiple signal classification (MUSIC). To the best of our knowledge, however, any comparison studies to reveal the difference of the two approaches have not been reported. In the present study, we compared the performance of the two different techniques, ICA and MUSIC, especially focusing on how accurately they can estimate and separate various brain electrical signals such as linear, nonlinear, and chaotic signals without a priori knowledge. Results of the realistic simulation studies, adopting directed transfer function (DTF) and Granger causality (GC) as measures of the accurate extraction of source time series, demonstrated that the MUSIC-based approach is more reliable than the ICA-based approach.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.81.2-81.2
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• 2016

Many signals in the nature have power-law behaviors, namely they are "scale-free". The method of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), as one of the popular methods (e.g., Rescaled range analysis and Spectral analysis) for determining scale-free nature of time series, has a very important advantage that the DFA can be applied to both stationary and non-stationary signals. The analysis of time series using the DFA has been broadly used in physiology, finance, hydrology, meteorology, geology, and so on. We performed the DFA of 16 Spaceweather HMI Active Region Patch (SHARP) parameters for 38 HMI Active Region Patches (HARPs) obtained by Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) from May 2010 to June 2014. The main results from this study are as follows. (1) The most of the time series data are non-stationary. (2) The DFA scaling exponents of "mean vertical current density" for 38 HARPs have a negative correlation coefficient (-0.41) with flare index. (3) The DFA scaling exponents of parameters such as "Sum of the absolute value of net currents per polarity", "Absolute value of the net current helicity", and "Mean photospheric excess magnetic energy density" for the most active HARPs having more than 10 major flares, have positive correlation coefficients (0.64, 0.59, and 0.53, respectively) with the ratio of "the number of CMEs associated with major flares" to "the number of major flares". Physical interpretations on our results will be discussed.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.667-675
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• 2018

When a financial time series consists of daily (closing) returns, traditional volatility models such as autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and generalized ARCH (GARCH) are useful to figure out daily volatilities. With high frequency returns in a day, one may adopt various multivariate GARCH techniques (MGARCH) (Tsay, Multivariate Time Series Analysis With R and Financial Application, John Wiley, 2014) to obtain intraday volatilities as long as the high frequency is moderate. When it comes to the ultra high frequency (UHF) case (e.g., one minute prices are available everyday), a new model needs to be developed to suit UHF time series in order to figure out continuous time intraday-volatilities. Aue et al. (Journal of Time Series Analysis, 38, 3-21; 2017) proposed functional GARCH (fGARCH) to analyze functional volatilities based on UHF data. This article introduces fGARCH to the readers and illustrates how to estimate fGARCH equations using UHF data of KOSPI and Hyundai motor company.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.39 no.7 s.168
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• pp.617-626
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• 2006

In this study 3-month SPI data from 59 stations over the Korean peninsula are analyzed by deriving and spatially characterizing the EOFs. Also, the coefficient time series of EOF are applied to the multi-variate time series model to generate the time series of 10,000 years, to average them to estimate the areal average, and to decide the maximum drought severity for given return periods. Finally, the drought prevention ability is evaluated by considering the effective storage of dam within the basin and the size of agricultural area. Especially for the return period of 30 years, only the Han river basin has the potential to overcome the drought. Other river basins like the Youngsan river basin, which has a large portion of agricultural area but less water storage, are found to be very vulnerable to the rainfall-sensitive agricultural drought.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.65-73
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• 2001

Until recently, we use only weekly and monthly adjustment factors in order to estimate the AADT. By the way. we can suppose that the traffic is time series data related to flow of time. So we tried to analyse traffic patterns using time series analysis and apply them to estimate the AADT. We could divide traffic patterns into trend, cyclic variation, seasonal variation and irregular variation like as time series data. Also, in order to reduce random error components, we have looked for the weather conditions as an influential factor. There are many weather conditions such as rainfalls, but, temperatures, and sunshine hours among others but we selected rainfalls and lowest temperatures. And then, we have estimated the AADT using time series factors. To compare the results of, we have applied both irregular variation joined to weather factors and that not joined to. RMSE and U-test were opted at methods to appreciate results of AADT estimation.

• Advanced Industrial SCIence
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.17-22
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• 2024

History, which began with the emergence of mankind, has a means of recording. Today, we can check the past through data. Generated data may only be generated and stored at a certain moment, but it is not only continuously generated over a certain time interval from the past to the present, but also occurs in the future, so making predictions using it is an important task. In order to find out trends in the use of time series data among numerous data, this paper analyzes the concept of time series data, analyzes Recurrent Neural Network and Long-Short Term Memory, which are mainly used for time series data analysis in the machine learning field, and analyzes the use of these models. Through case studies, it was confirmed that it is being used in various fields such as medical diagnosis, stock price analysis, and climate prediction, and is showing high predictive results. Based on this, we will explore ways to utilize it in the future.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.52-53
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• 2005

Time series of gridded surface wind and wind-stress vectors over the world ocean have been constructed by satellite scatterometer data. The products are derived from the ERS-l,2 covering 9 years during 1992-2000 and the Sea Winds on board QuikSCAT (Qscat) which has been operating up to the present since June 1999, so they allows us to analyze variabilities with various time scales. In this study, we focus on interannual variability of the wind stress in the mid- and high-latitude region of North Pacific. These are compared with those by numerical weather prediction(NWP) ones (NCEP Reanalysis). We also examine variability in the wind-stress curl field that is an important factor for ocean dynamics and focus its time and spatial characters in the northwestern Pacific around Japan. It is found that the vorticity field in the lower atmosphere tends to increase gradually with time, suggesting the enhancement of the North Pacific subtropical gyre.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.58 no.5
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• pp.281-293
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• 2021

Oil and steel prices, which are major pricescosts in the shipbuilding industry, were predicted. Firstly, the error of the moving average line (N=3-5) was examined, and in all three error analyses, the moving average line (N=3) was small. Secondly, in the linear prediction of data through existing theory, oil prices rise slightly, and steel prices rise sharply, but in reality, linear prediction using existing data was not satisfactory. Thirdly, we identified the limitations of linear prediction methods and confirmed that oil and steel price prediction was somewhat similar to actual moving average line prediction methods. Due to the high volatility of major price flows, large errors were inevitable in the forecast section. Through the time series analysis method at the end of this paper, we were able to achieve not bad results in all analysis items relative to artificial intelligence (Prophet). Predictive data through predictive analysis using eight predictive models are expected to serve as a good research foundation for developing unique tools or establishing evaluation systems in the future. This study compares the basic settings of artificial intelligence programs with the results of core price prediction in the shipbuilding industry through time series prediction theory, and further studies the various hyper-parameters and event effects of Prophet in the future, leaving room for improvement of predictability.