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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2006.39.7.617

Evaluation of Agricultural Drought Prevention Ability Based on EOF Analysis and Multi-variate Time Series Model  

Yoo Chul-Sang (고려대학교 사회환경시스템공학과)
Kim Dae-Ha (고려대학교 사회환경시스템공학과)
Kim Sang-Dan (부경대학교 환경시스템공학부)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.39, no.7, 2006 , pp. 617-626 More about this Journal
Abstract
In this study 3-month SPI data from 59 stations over the Korean peninsula are analyzed by deriving and spatially characterizing the EOFs. Also, the coefficient time series of EOF are applied to the multi-variate time series model to generate the time series of 10,000 years, to average them to estimate the areal average, and to decide the maximum drought severity for given return periods. Finally, the drought prevention ability is evaluated by considering the effective storage of dam within the basin and the size of agricultural area. Especially for the return period of 30 years, only the Han river basin has the potential to overcome the drought. Other river basins like the Youngsan river basin, which has a large portion of agricultural area but less water storage, are found to be very vulnerable to the rainfall-sensitive agricultural drought.
Keywords
EOF analysis; multivariate time series model; drought severity; return period;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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