• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.71-76
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• 1982

A procedure is established for combining a regression model and a time series model to fit to a set of autocorrelated data. This procedure is based on an iterative method to compute regression parameter estimates and time series parameter estimates simultaneously. The time series model which is discussed is basically AR(p) model, since MA(q) model or ARMA(p,q) model can be inverted to AR({$\infty$) model which can be approximated by AR(p) model. The procedure discussed in this articled is applied in general to any combination of regression model and time series model.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.335-348
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• 2009

Fuzzy regression is used as a complement or an alternative to represent the relation between variables among the forecasting models especially when the data is insufficient to evaluate the relation. Such phenomenon often occurs in seasonal time series data which require large amount of data to describe the underlying pattern. Semiparametric model is useful tool in the case where domain knowledge exists about the function to be estimated or emphasis is put onto understandability of the model. In this paper we propose fuzzy semiparametric support vector regression so that it can provide good performance on forecasting of the seasonal time series by incorporating into fuzzy support vector regression the basis functions which indicate the seasonal variation of time series. In order to indicate the performance of this method, we present two examples of predicting the seasonal time series. Experimental results show that the proposed method is very attractive for the seasonal time series in fuzzy environments.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• v.2
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• pp.635-638
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• 2006

Regression of conventional prediction techniques in data mining uses the model which is generated from the training step. This model is applied to new input data without any change. If this model is applied directly to time series, the rate of prediction accuracy will be decreased. This paper proposes an incremental regression for time series prediction like typhoon track prediction. This technique considers the characteristic of time series which may be changed over time. It is composed of two steps. The first step executes a fractional process for applying input data to the regression model. The second step updates the model by using its information as new data. Additionally, the model is maintained by only recent data in a queue. This approach has the following two advantages. It maintains the minimum information of the model by using a matrix, so space complexity is reduced. Moreover, it prevents the increment of error rate by updating the model over time. Accuracy rate of the proposed method is measured by RME(Relative Mean Error) and RMSE(Root Mean Square Error). The results of typhoon track prediction experiment are performed by the proposed technique IMLR(Incremental Multiple Linear Regression) is more efficient than those of MLR(Multiple Linear Regression) and SVR(Support Vector Regression).

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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• 2000.11a
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• pp.13-15
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• 2000

In this paper, we deal with the asymptotic properties of the regression quantile estimators in the nonlinear time series regression model. For the sinusodial model which frequently appears fer a time series analysis, we study the strong consistency and asymptotic normality of regression quantile ostinators.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.321-332
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• 2013

Because of the continuous low birthrates, the number of the elementary students will decrease by 17% in 2020 compared to 2011. The purpose of this study is to forecast the number of elementary school teachers until 2020. We used the data in education statistical year books from 1970 to 2010. We used the time-series regression model, time series grouped regression model and exponential smoothing model to predict the number of teachers for the next ten years. Consequently time-series grouped regression model is a better model for forecasting the number of elementary school teachers than other models.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.187-199
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• 2000

In this paper, we deal with the asymptotic properties of the least absolute deviation estimators in the nonlinear time series regression model. For the sinusodial model which frequently appears in a time series analysis, we study the strong consistency and asymptotic normality of least absolute deviation estimators. And using the derived limiting distributions we show that the least absolute deviation estimators is more efficient than the least squared estimators when the error distribution of the model has heavy tails.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.633-641
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• 2001

The least squares method is usually applied when estimating the parameters in the regression models. However the least square estimator is not very efficient when the distribution of the error is skewed. In this paper, we propose the asymmetric least square estimator for a particular nonlinear time series regression model, and give the simple and practical sufficient conditions for the strong consistency of the estimators.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
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• v.54 no.4
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• pp.611-622
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• 2018

Observed climate data are processed under the assumption that their time series are stationary, as in multi-step temperature and precipitation prediction, which usually leads to low prediction accuracy. If a climate system model is based on a single prediction model, the prediction results contain significant uncertainty. In order to overcome this drawback, this study uses a method that integrates ensemble prediction and a stepwise regression model based on a mean-valued generation function. In addition, it utilizes empirical mode decomposition (EMD), which is a new method of handling time series. First, a non-stationary time series is decomposed into a series of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), which are stationary and multi-scale. Then, a different prediction model is constructed for each component of the IMF using numerical ensemble prediction combined with stepwise regression analysis. Finally, the results are fit to a linear regression model, and a short-term climate prediction system is established using the Visual Studio development platform. The model is validated using temperature data from February 1957 to 2005 from 88 weather stations in Guangxi, China. The results show that compared to single-model prediction methods, the EMD and ensemble prediction model is more effective for forecasting climate change and abrupt climate shifts when using historical data for multi-step prediction.

• 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2004.04a
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• pp.91-101
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• 2004

The turbulent flow is of fundamental interest because the conservation equations for thermodynamics, mass and momentum are linked together. This turbulent flow consists of some coherent time- and space-organized vortical structures. Research has already shown that some dynamic systems and experimental models still cannot provide a good nonlinear analysis of turbulent time series. In the real turbulent flow, very complicated nonlinear behaviors, which are affected by many vague factors are present. In this paper, a kernel-based machine for fuzzy nonlinear regression analysis is proposed to predict the nonlinear time series of turbulent flows. In order to show the practicality and usefulness of this model, we present an example of predicting the near-wall turbulence time series as a verifiable model and compare with fuzzy piecewise regression. The results of practical applications show that the proposed method is appropriate and appears to be useful in nonlinear analysis and in fuzzy environments to predict the turbulence time series.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.187-200
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• 1995

This paper is concerned with a regression model with nonlinear time series errors. Testing procedures for linearity of error terms are studied. To this end, large-sample properties of estimators of regression parameters and autoregression parameter are obtained. These results are then used to develop test statistics for testing linearity of errors. Some simulation studies are shown.