• Title/Summary/Keyword: time based risk level

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Classification Model and Crime Occurrence City Forecasting Based on Random Forest Algorithm

  • KANG, Sea-Am;CHOI, Jeong-Hyun;KANG, Min-soo
    • Korean Journal of Artificial Intelligence
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.21-25
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    • 2022
  • Korea has relatively less crime than other countries. However, the crime rate is steadily increasing. Many people think the crime rate is decreasing, but the crime arrest rate has increased. The goal is to check the relationship between CCTV and the crime rate as a way to lower the crime rate, and to identify the correlation between areas without CCTV and areas without CCTV. If you see a crime that can happen at any time, I think you should use a random forest algorithm. We also plan to use machine learning random forest algorithms to reduce the risk of overfitting, reduce the required training time, and verify high-level accuracy. The goal is to identify the relationship between CCTV and crime occurrence by creating a crime prevention algorithm using machine learning random forest techniques. Assuming that no crime occurs without CCTV, it compares the crime rate between the areas where the most crimes occur and the areas where there are no crimes, and predicts areas where there are many crimes. The impact of CCTV on crime prevention and arrest can be interpreted as a comprehensive effect in part, and the purpose isto identify areas and frequency of frequent crimes by comparing the time and time without CCTV.

Investigating the Effect of Prior Damage on the Post-earthquake Fire Resistance of Reinforced Concrete Portal Frames

  • Ronagh, Hamid Reza;Behnam, Behrouz
    • International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.209-220
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    • 2012
  • Post-earthquake fire (PEF) can lead to a rapid collapse of buildings that have been partially damaged as a result of a prior earthquake. Almost all standards and codes for the design of structures against earthquake ignore the risk of PEF, and thus buildings designed using those codes could be too weak when subjected to a fire after an earthquake. An investigation based on sequential analysis inspired by FEMA356 is performed here on the immediate occupancy (IO), life safety (LS) and collapse prevention (CP) performance levels of two portal frames, after they are pushed to arrive at a certain level of displacement corresponding to the mentioned performance level. This investigation is followed by a fire analysis of the damaged frames, examining the time taken for the damaged frames to collapse. As a point of reference, a fire analysis is also performed for undamaged frames and before the occurrence of earthquake. The results indicate that while there is minor difference between the fire resistances of the fire-alone situation and the frames pushed to the IO level of performance, a notable difference is observed between the fire-alone analysis and the frames pushed to arrive at LS and CP levels of performance and exposed to PEF. The results also show that exposing only the beams to fire results in a higher decline of the fire resistance, compared to exposing only the columns to fire. Furthermore, the results show that the frames pushed to arrive at LS and CP levels of performance collapse in a global collapse mode laterally, whereas at the IO level of performance and fire-alone situation, the collapse mechanism is mostly local through the collapse of beams. Whilst the investigation is conducted for a certain class of portal frames, the results confirm the need for the incorporation of PEF into the process of analysis and design, and provide some quantitative measures on the level of associated effects.

The development of the seismic fragility curves of existing bridges in Indonesia (Case study: DKI Jakarta)

  • Veby Citra Simanjuntak;Iswandi Imran;Muslinang Moestopo;Herlien D. Setio
    • Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.87-105
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    • 2023
  • Seismic regulations have been updated from time to time to accommodate an increase in seismic hazards. Comparison of seismic fragility of the existing bridges in Indonesia from different historical periods since the era before 1990 will be the basis for seismic assessment of the bridge stock in Indonesia, most of which are located in earthquake-prone areas, especially those built many years ago with outdated regulations. In this study, seismic fragility curves were developed using incremental non-linear time history analysis and more holistically according to the actual strength of concrete and steel material in Indonesia to determine the uncertainty factor of structural capacity, βc. From the research that has been carried out, based on the current seismic load in SNI 2833:2016/Seismic Map 2017 (7% probability of exceedance in 75 years), the performance level of the bridge in the era before SNI 2833:2016 was Operational-Life Safety whereas the performance level of the bridge designed with SNI 2833:2016 was Elastic - Operational. The potential for more severe damage occurs in greater earthquake intensity. Collapse condition occurs at As = FPGA x PGA value of bridge Era I = 0.93 g; Era II = 1.03 g; Era III = 1.22 g; Era IV = 1.54 g. Furthermore, the fragility analysis was also developed with geometric variations in the same bridge class to see the effect of these variations on the fragility, which is the basis for making bridge risk maps in Indonesia.

A Study on Factors of Internet Overdependence for Adults Using the Decision Tree Analysis Model (성인층의 인터넷 과의존 영향요인: 의사결정나무분석을 활용하여)

  • Seo, Hyung-Jun;Shin, Ji-Woong
    • Informatization Policy
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.20-45
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    • 2018
  • This study aims to find the factors of Internet overdependence in adults, through the decision tree analysis model, which is a data mining method using National Information Society Agency's raw data from the survey on Internet overdependence in 2016. As a result of the decision tree analysis, a total 16 nodes of Internet overdependence risk groups were identified. The main predicated variables were the amount of time spent per smart media usage in weekdays; amount of time spent per smart media usage in weekends; experiences of purchasing cash items; percentage of using smart media for leisure; negative personality; percentage of using smart media for information search and utilization; and awareness on good functions of the Internet, all of which in order had greater impact on the risk groups. Users in the highest risk node spent the smart media for more than 5 minutes per use and less than 5~10 minutes in weekdays, had experiences of cash item purchase, and had lower level of awareness on the good functions of the Internet. The analysis led to the following recommendations: First, even a short-time use has higher chances of causing Internet overdependence, and therefore, guidelines need to be developed based on research on the usage behavior rather than the usage time. Second, self-regulation is required because factors that affect overindulgence in games, such as the cash items, increase Internet overdependence. Third, using the Internet for leisure causes higher risk of overdependence and therefore, other means of leisure should be recommended.

Measuring Technologies of Traffic Conflict Risk between Vehicles and Pedestrians (차량-보행자간의 상충위험도 측정 기술 연구)

  • Jang, Jeong-Ah;Lee, Hyeon-Soo
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.255-260
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    • 2017
  • In Korea, traffic accidents between pedestrians and vehicles in 2015 account for 38.8% of all accidents. This study proposes a system design that can measure the risk of conflict between a vehicle and a pedestrian. Firstly the systemdetect and estimate the position, speed, and directional data of the vehicle and the pedestrian. And then it estimate the conflict point between a vehicle and a pedestrian. The risk of conflict is quantified by estimating the pedestrian safety margin (PSM), which is the time difference between the arrival of the pedestrian at the crossing point to the point of conflict and the vehicle approaching the point. In this system each data is acquired through an external monitoring based evaluation module and an individual wearing module. In the future, such a system can be used for decision making such as the design of road hazard improvement facilities and the designation of the elderly protection area.

Clinical Prognostic Score for Predicting Disease Remission with Differentiated Thyroid Cancers

  • Somboonporn, Charoonsak;Mangklabruks, Ampica;Thakkinstian, Ammarin;Vatanasapt, Patravoot;Nakaphun, Suwannee
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.2805-2810
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    • 2016
  • Background: Differentiated thyroid cancer is the most common endocrine malignancy with a generally good prognosis. Knowing long-term outcomes of each patient helps management planning. The study was conducted to develop and validate a clinical prognostic score for predicting disease remission in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer based on patient, tumor and treatment factors. Materials and Methods: A retrospective cohort study of 1,217 differentiated thyroid cancer patients from two tertiary-care hospitals in the Northeast of Thailand was performed. Associations between potential clinical prognostic factors and remission were tested by Cox proportional-hazards analysis in 852 patients (development cohort). The prediction score was created by summation of score points weighted from regression coefficients of independent prognostic factors. Risks of disease remission were estimated and the derived score was then validated in the remaining 365 patients (validation cohort). Results: During the median follow-up time of 58 months, 648 (76.1%) patients in the development cohort had disease remission. Five independent prognostic factors were identified with corresponding score points: duration from thyroid surgery to $^{131}I$ treatment (0.721), distant metastasis at initial diagnosis (0.801), postoperative serum thyroglobulin level (0.535), anti-thyroglobulin antibodies positivity (0.546), and adequacy of serum TSH suppression (0.293). The total risk score for each patient was calculated and three categories of remission probability were proposed: ${\leq}1.628$ points (low risk, 83% remission), 1.629-1.816 points (intermediate risk, 87% remission), and ${\geq}1.817$ points (high risk, 93% remission). The concordance (C-index) was 0.761 (95% CI 0.754-0.767). Conclusions: The clinical prognostic scoring model developed to quantify the probability of disease remission can serve as a useful tool in personalized decision making regarding treatment in differentiated thyroid cancer patients.

Covid-19 Occupational Risk Incidence and Working Sectors Involved During the Pandemic in Italy

  • Fabio Boccuni;Bruna M. Rondinone;Giuliana Buresti;Adelina Brusco;Andrea Bucciarelli;Silvia D'Amario;Benedetta Persechino;Sergio Iavicoli;Alessandro Marinaccio
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.398-405
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    • 2023
  • Background: Starting from March 2020 until December 2021, different phases of Covid-19 pandemic have been identified in Italy, with several containing/lifting measures progressively enforced by the National government. In the present study, we investigate the change in occupational risk during the subsequent pandemic phases and we propose an estimate of the incidence of the cases by economic sector, based on the analysis of insurance claims for compensation for Covid-19. Methods: Covid-19 epidemiological data available for the general population and injury claims of workers covered by the Italian public insurance system in 2020-2021 were analyzed. Monthly Incidence Rate of Covid-19 compensation claims per 100,000 workers (MIRw) was calculated by the economic sector and compared with the same indicator for general population in different pandemic periods. Results: The distribution of Covid-19 MIRw by sector significantly changed during the pandemic related to both the strength of different waves and the mitigation/lifting strategies enforced. The level of occupational fraction was very high at the beginning phase of the pandemic, decreasing to 5% at the end of 2021. Healthcare and related services were continuously hit but the incidence was significantly decreasing in 2021 in all sectors, except for postal and courier activities in transportation and storage enterprises. Conclusion: The analysis of compensation claim data allowed to identify time trends for infection risk in different working sectors. The claim rates were highest for human health and social work activities but the distribution of risk among sectors was clearly influenced by the different stages of the pandemic.

An Off-Site Consequence Modeling for Accident Using Monte Carlo Method (몬테칼로 방법을 사용할 사고후 영향 평가모델)

  • Chang Sun Kang;Sae Yul Lee
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.136-140
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    • 1984
  • A new medal is presented in order to evaluate the risk from a nuclear facility following accidents directly combining the on-site meteorological data using the Monte Carlo Method. To estimate the radiological detriment to the surrounding population-at-large (collective dose equivalent), in this study the probability distribution of each meteorological element based upon on-site data is analyzed to generate atmospheric dispersion conditions. The random sampling is used to select the dispersion conditions at any given time of effluent releases. In this study it is considered that the meteorological conditions such as wind direction, speed and stability are mutually independent and each condition satisfies the Markov condition. As a sample study, the risk of KNU-1 following the large LOCA was calculated, The calculated collective dose equivalent in the 50 mile region population from the large LOCA with 50 percent confidence level is 2.0$\times$10$^2$ man-sievert.

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Sickness Presenteeism among the Self-employed and Employed in Northwestern Europe-The Importance of Time Demands

  • Nordenmark, Mikael;Hagqvist, Emma;Vinberg, Stig
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.224-228
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    • 2019
  • Background: European policymakers encourage individuals to become self-employed because it is a way to promote innovation and job creation. It can be assumed that health and well-being among the self-employed and managers in small-scale enterprises are particularly crucial in this enterprise group because the smallness of the enterprise makes its members vulnerable. Earlier studies have indicated that the self-employed have a high working pace and work for long and irregular hours, indicating that it can be difficult to stay at home because of sickness. The purpose of this study is to investigate the occurrence of sickness presenteeism among the self-employed in relation to the organizationally employed and to analyze whether any differences can be explained by higher work demands among the self-employed. Methods: The study is based on the fifth European survey on working conditions (2010) and includes the northwestern European countries in the survey. The questions cover a wide range of topics designed to meet the European Union's political needs. The main variables in this study are sickness presenteeism and several indicators of time demands. Results: The results show that the self-employed report a higher level of sickness presenteeism than the employed: 52.4 versus 43.6%. All indicators of time demands are significantly related to the risk for sickness presenteeism, also when controlling for background characteristics. Conclusion: The results confirm that the level of sickness presenteeism is higher among the self-employed and that high time demands are a major explanation to this.

Characteristics of Particulate Matter Generated during the Operation of a Small Directly Fired Coffee Roaster (소형 직화식 커피 로스터 이용 시 발생하는 미세먼지 특성 연구)

  • Yu, Da Eun;Kim, Seung Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.236-248
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    • 2020
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the concentrations of particulate matter generated during coffee roasting and to study various factors affecting the concentrations. Methods: Differences in concentration levels were investigated based on various factors to understand the emission rates of particulate matter over time and to compare the mass and number concentrations according to their size. Sampling was performed in closed laboratories without the operation of air conditioning or ventilation. Optical Particle Sizer(OPS) was used as a measuring device. An OPS measures using a light-scattering method. Sampling was performed for sixty minutes at one-minute intervals. The background concentration was measured for about 30 minutes before starting of coffee roasting. The concentrations of particulate matter generated during coffee roasting were monitored until roasted coffee beans were removed from the roaster and cooled down. Several factors affecting the concentrations of particulate matter were investigated, which includes the origins of green beans, the roasting level, and the input amount of green beans. Results: The results of this study may be summarized as follows: 1) There was no difference in particulate matter concentration levels by the origin of the green beans, but a statistically significant difference in concentration levels by roasting level and the input amount of green beans; The higher the roasting level, the higher was the particulate matter concentration. The more green beans we put in the roaster, the higher were the concentrations; 2) The PM10 mass concentrations increased over time. The average concentration after roasting was higher than the average concentration during roasting; 3) In the distribution of mass and number concentration by particle diameter, the majority of particles was below 2.5 ㎛. Conclusions: Persons who work in roastery cafes can be exposed to high concentrations of particulate matter. Therefore, personal exposure and risk assessment should be conducted for roastery cafe workers.