• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.274-283
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• 2022

Korea is facing a number difficulties arising from rising housing prices. As 'housing' takes the lion's share in personal assets, many difficulties are expected to arise from fluctuating housing prices. The purpose of this study is creating housing price prediction model to prevent such risks and induce reasonable real estate purchases. This study made many attempts for understanding real estate instability and creating appropriate housing price prediction model. This study predicted and validated housing prices by using the LSTM technique - a type of Artificial Intelligence deep learning technology. LSTM is a network in which cell state and hidden state are recursively calculated in a structure which added cell state, which is conveyor belt role, to the existing RNN's hidden state. The real sale prices of apartments in autonomous districts ranging from January 2006 to December 2019 were collected through the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport's real sale price open system and basic apartment and commercial district information were collected through the Public Data Portal and the Seoul Metropolitan City Data. The collected real sale price data were scaled based on monthly average sale price and a total of 168 data were organized by preprocessing respective data based on address. In order to predict prices, the LSTM implementation process was conducted by setting training period as 29 months (April 2015 to August 2017), validation period as 13 months (September 2017 to September 2018), and test period as 13 months (December 2018 to December 2019) according to time series data set. As a result of this study for predicting 'prices', there have been the following results. Firstly, this study obtained 76 percent of prediction similarity. We tried to design a prediction model of real estate transaction price with the LSTM Model based on AI and Bigdata. The final prediction model was created by collecting time series data, which identified the fact that 76 percent model can be made. This validated that predicting rate of return through the LSTM method can gain reliability.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제10권7호
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• pp.3150-3170
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• 2016

In Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), logistics distribution and mobile e-commerce, the real-time, accurate and reliable vehicle trajectory prediction has significant application value. Vehicle trajectory prediction can not only provide accurate location-based services, but also can monitor and predict traffic situation in advance, and then further recommend the optimal route for users. In this paper, firstly, we mine the double layers of hidden states of vehicle historical trajectories, and then determine the parameters of HMM (hidden Markov model) by historical data. Secondly, we adopt Viterbi algorithm to seek the double layers hidden states sequences corresponding to the just driven trajectory. Finally, we propose a new algorithm (DHMTP) for vehicle trajectory prediction based on the hidden Markov model of double layers hidden states, and predict the nearest neighbor unit of location information of the next k stages. The experimental results demonstrate that the prediction accuracy of the proposed algorithm is increased by 18.3% compared with TPMO algorithm and increased by 23.1% compared with Naive algorithm in aspect of predicting the next k phases' trajectories, especially when traffic flow is greater, such as this time from weekday morning to evening. Moreover, the time performance of DHMTP algorithm is also clearly improved compared with TPMO algorithm.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.205-211
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• 1997

For the prediction of multi-site rainfall with radar data and ground meteorological data, a rainfall prediction model was proposed, which uses the neural network theory, a kind of artifical Intelligence technique. The Input layer of the prediction model was constructed with current ground meteorological data, their variation, moving vectors of rain- fall field and digital terrain of the measuring site, and the output layer was constructed with the predicted rainfall up to 3 hours. In the application of the prediction model to the Pyungchang river basin, the learning results of neural network prediction model showed more Improved results than the parameter estimation results of an existing physically based model. And the proposed model comparisonally well predicted the time distribution of ralnfall.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제65권12호
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• pp.2084-2093
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• 2016

It is crucial to predict water temperature for aquatic ecosystem studies and management. In this paper, we first address challenging issues in predicting water temperature in a real time manner and propose a distributed computing model to address such issues. Then, we present an Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-based water temperature prediction model developed for the Soyang River and a cyberinfrastructure system called WT-Agabus to run such prediction models in an automated and real time manner. The ANN model is designed to use only weather forecast data (air temperature and rainfall) that can be obtained by invoking the weather forecasting system at Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and therefore can facilitate the automated and real time water temperature prediction. This paper also demonstrates how easily and efficiently the real time prediction can be implemented with the WT-Agabus prototype system.

• ETRI Journal
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• 제46권2호
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• pp.205-217
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• 2024

We propose a bandwidth prediction approach based on deep learning. The approach is intended to accurately predict the bandwidth of various types of mobile networks. We first use a machine learning technique, namely, the gradient boosting algorithm, to recognize the connected mobile network. Second, we apply a handover detection algorithm based on network recognition to account for vertical handover that causes the bandwidth variance. Third, as the communication performance offered by 3G, 4G, and 5G networks varies, we suggest a bidirectional long short-term memory model with time distribution for bandwidth prediction per network. To increase the prediction accuracy, pretraining and fine-tuning are applied for each type of network. We use a dataset collected at University College Cork for network recognition, handover detection, and bandwidth prediction. The performance evaluation indicates that the handover detection algorithm achieves 88.5% accuracy, and the bandwidth prediction model achieves a high accuracy, with a root-mean-square error of only 2.12%.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.25-37
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• 2015

To predict the surface subsidence of salt rock storage, a new surface subsidence basin model is proposed based on the Logistic function from the phenomenological perspective. Analysis shows that the subsidence curve on the main section of the model is S-shaped, similar to that of the actual surface subsidence basin; the control parameter of the subsidence curve shape can be changed to allow for flexible adjustment of the curve shape. By using this model in combination with the MMF time function that reflects the single point subsidence-time relationship of the surface, a new dynamic prediction model of full section surface subsidence for salt rock storage is established, and the numerical simulation calculation results are used to verify the availability of the new model. The prediction results agree well with the numerical simulation results, and the model reflects the continued development of surface subsidence basin over time, which is expected to provide some insight into the prediction and visualization research on surface subsidence of salt rock storage.

• 산업기술연구
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• 제28권B호
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• pp.101-109
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• 2008

In general, non-stationary or chaos time series forecasting is very difficult since there exists a drift and/or nonlinearities in them. To overcome this situation, we suggest a new prediction method based on multiple model TS fuzzy predictors combined with preprocessing of time series data, where, instead of time series data, the differences of them are applied to predictors as input. In preprocessing procedure, the candidates of optimal difference interval are determined by using con-elation analysis and corresponding difference data are generated. And then, for each of them, TS fuzzy predictor is constructed by using k-means clustering algorithm and least squares method. Finally, the best predictor which minimizes the performance index is selected and it works on hereafter for prediction. Computer simulation is performed to show the effectiveness and usefulness of our method.

• 지능정보연구
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.133-147
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• 1998

Recently, many researchers have been involved in finding deterministic equations which can accurately predict future event, based on chaotic theory, or fractal theory. The theory says that some events which seem very random but internally deterministic can be accurately predicted by fractal equations. In contrast to the conventional methods, such as AR model, MA, model, or ARIMA model, the fractal equation attempts to discover a deterministic order inherent in time series data set. In discovering deterministic order, researchers have found that neural networks are much more effective than the conventional statistical models. Even though prediction accuracy of the network can be different depending on the topological structure and modification of the algorithms, many researchers asserted that the neural network systems outperforms other systems, because of non-linear behaviour of the network models, mechanisms of massive parallel processing, generalization capability based on adaptive learning. However, recent survey shows that prediction accuracy of the forecasting models can be determined by the model structure and data structures. In the experiments based on actual economic data sets, it was found that the prediction accuracy of the neural network model is similar to the performance level of the conventional forecasting model. Especially, for the data set which is deterministically chaotic, the AR model, a conventional statistical model, was not significantly different from the MLP model, a neural network model. This result shows that the forecasting model. This result shows that the forecasting model a, pp.opriate to a prediction task should be selected based on characteristics of the time series data set. Analysis of the characteristics of the data set was performed by fractal analysis, measurement of Hurst index, and measurement of Lyapunov exponents. As a conclusion, a significant difference was not found in forecasting future events for the time series data which is deterministically chaotic, between a conventional forecasting model and a typical neural network model.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.1-14
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• 2024

Time-series forecasting is extensively used in the actual world. Recent research has shown that Transformers with a self-attention mechanism at their core exhibit better performance when dealing with such problems. However, most of the existing Transformer models used for time series prediction use the traditional encoder-decoder architecture, which is complex and leads to low model processing efficiency, thus limiting the ability to mine deep time dependencies by increasing model depth. Secondly, the secondary computational complexity of the self-attention mechanism also increases computational overhead and reduces processing efficiency. To address these issues, the paper designs an efficient multi-layer attention-based time-series forecasting model. This model has the following characteristics: (i) It abandons the traditional encoder-decoder based Transformer architecture and constructs a time series prediction model based on multi-layer attention mechanism, improving the model's ability to mine deep time dependencies. (ii) A cross attention module based on cross attention mechanism was designed to enhance information exchange between historical and predictive sequences. (iii) Applying a recently proposed sparse attention mechanism to our model reduces computational overhead and improves processing efficiency. Experiments on multiple datasets have shown that our model can significantly increase the performance of current advanced Transformer methods in time series forecasting, including LogTrans, Reformer, and Informer.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.14-19
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• 2008

The paper presents an intelligent time series model to predict uncertain electricity market price in the deregulated industry environment. Since the price of electricity in a deregulated market is very volatile, it is difficult to estimate an accurate market price using historically observed data. The parameter of an intelligent time series model is obtained based on the simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA). The SPSA is flexible to use in high dimensional systems. Since prediction models have their modeling error, an error compensator is developed as compensation. The SPSA based intelligent model is applied to predict the electricity market price in the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) electricity market.