• Title/Summary/Keyword: theoretical probability

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The analysis on the effect of rician fading and lognormal shadowing in microcellular mobile radio system using outage probability (마이크로셀룰라 이동 무선 시스템에서 Outage 확률을 이용한 라이시안 페이딩과 로그노말 섀도우잉 영향에 관한 분석)

  • Ahn, Chy-Hun;Kim, Nam;Park, Sung-Gyun
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.60-71
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    • 1998
  • The propagation environment is effected by Rayleigh fading, Rician fading, path loss and lognormal shadowing in microcellular mobile radio system. In these surroundings we analysed the performance on received Rician signals among L Rician interferers and the characteristics of lognormal shadowing for various parameters such as reuse distance, cluster size, signal to interference power ratio and protection ratio using outage probability. We also studied various channels Rayleigh signal and Rician interferer, Rician signal and Rayleigh interferer, Rician signal and Rician interferer and so on using outage probability. The theoretical extention and computer simulation effectively analysed the characteristic of lognormal shadowed Rician channel.

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Multivariate design estimations under copulas constructions. Stage-1: Parametrical density constructions for defining flood marginals for the Kelantan River basin, Malaysia

  • Latif, Shahid;Mustafa, Firuza
    • Ocean Systems Engineering
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.287-328
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    • 2019
  • Comprehensive understanding of the flood risk assessments via frequency analysis often demands multivariate designs under the different notations of return periods. Flood is a tri-variate random consequence, which often pointing the unreliability of univariate return period and demands for the joint dependency construction by accounting its multiple intercorrelated flood vectors i.e., flood peak, volume & durations. Selecting the most parsimonious probability functions for demonstrating univariate flood marginals distributions is often a mandatory pre-processing desire before the establishment of joint dependency. Especially under copulas methodology, which often allows the practitioner to model univariate marginals separately from their joint constructions. Parametric density approximations often hypothesized that the random samples must follow some specific or predefine probability density functions, which usually defines different estimates especially in the tail of distributions. Concentrations of the upper tail often seem interesting during flood modelling also, no evidence exhibited in favours of any fixed distributions, which often characterized through the trial and error procedure based on goodness-of-fit measures. On another side, model performance evaluations and selections of best-fitted distributions often demand precise investigations via comparing the relative sample reproducing capabilities otherwise, inconsistencies might reveal uncertainty. Also, the strength & weakness of different fitness statistics usually vary and having different extent during demonstrating gaps and dispensary among fitted distributions. In this literature, selections efforts of marginal distributions of flood variables are incorporated by employing an interactive set of parametric functions for event-based (or Block annual maxima) samples over the 50-years continuously-distributed streamflow characteristics for the Kelantan River basin at Gulliemard Bridge, Malaysia. Model fitness criteria are examined based on the degree of agreements between cumulative empirical and theoretical probabilities. Both the analytical as well as graphically visual inspections are undertaken to strengthen much decisive evidence in favour of best-fitted probability density.

A case study of gust factor characteristics for typhoon Morakat observed by distributed sites

  • Liu, Zihang;Fang, Genshen;Zhao, Lin;Cao, Shuyang;Ge, Yaojun
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.21-34
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    • 2022
  • Gust factor is an important parameter for the conversion between peak gust wind and mean wind speed used for the structural design and wind-related hazard mitigation. The gust factor of typhoon wind is observed to show a significant dispersion and some differences with large-scale weather systems, e.g., monsoons and extratropical cyclones. In this study, insitu measurement data captured by 13 meteorological towers during a strong typhoon Morakot are collected to investigate the statistical characteristics, height and wind speed dependency of the gust factor. Onshore off-sea and off-land winds are comparatively studied, respectively to characterize the underlying terrain effects on the gust factor. The theoretical method of peak factor based on Gaussian assumption is then introduced to compare the gust factor profiles observed in this study and given in some building codes and standards. The results show that the probability distributions of gust factor for both off-sea winds and off-land winds can be well described using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution model. Compared with the off-land winds, the off-sea gust factors are relatively smaller, and the probability distribution is more leptokurtic with longer tails. With the increase of height, especially for off-sea winds, the probability distributions of gust factor are more peaked and right-tailed. The scatters of gust factor decrease with the mean wind speed and height. AS/NZ's suggestions are nearly parallel with the measured gust factor profiles below 80m, while the fitting curve of off-sea data below 120m is more similar to AIJ, ASCE and EU.

Random Variable State and Response Variability (확률변수상태와 응답변화도)

  • Noh, Hyuk-Chun;Lee, Phill-Seung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.6A
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    • pp.1001-1011
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    • 2006
  • It is a general agreement that exact statistical solutions can be found by a Monte Carlo technique. Due to difficulties, however, in the numerical generation of random fields, which satisfy not only the probabilistic distribution but the spectral characteristics as well, it is recognized as relatively difficult to find an exact response variability of a structural response. In this study, recognizing that the random field assumes a constant over the domain under consideration when the correlation distance tends to infinity, a semi-theoretical solution of response variability is proposed for general structures. In this procedure, the probability density function is directly used. It is particularly noteworthy that the proposed methodology provides response variability for virtually any type of probability density function, and has capability of considering correlations between multiple random variables.

A Study on the Gap between Theoretical and Actual Ship Waiting Ratio of Container Terminals: The Case of a Terminal in Busan New Port (컨테이너 터미널의 이론적 대기율과 실제 대기율 비교에 관한 연구: 부산항 신항 A 터미널을 대상으로)

  • Lee, Jung-Hun;Park, Nam-Kyu
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.69-82
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    • 2018
  • The number of ships serviced at the container terminals in Busan is increasing by 2.9% per year. In spite of the increase in calling ships, there are no official records of waiting rate by the port authority. This study attempts to compare the theoretical ship waiting ratio and actual ship waiting ratio. The actual ship waiting ratio of container terminals is acquired from the 2014 to 2016 data of PORT-MIS and Terminal Operating System (TOS). Furthermore, methods and procedures to measure the actual ship's waiting rate of container terminal are proposed for ongoing measurement. In drawing the theoretical ship waiting ratio, the queuing theory is applied after deploying the ship arrival probability distribution and ship service probability distribution by the Chi Square method. As a result, the total number of ships waiting in a terminal for three years was 587, the average monthly service time and the average waiting time was 13.8 hours and 17.1 hours, respectively, and the monthly number of waiting ships was 16.3. Meanwhile, according to the queuing theory with multi servers, the ship waiting ratio is 31.1% on a 70% berth occupancy ratio. The reason behind the huge gap is the congested sailing in the peak days of the week, such as Sunday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. In addition, the number of waiting ships recorded on Sundays was twice as much as the average number of waiting ships.

ON THE AGE DISIRIBUTION OF OPEN CLUSTERS

  • Hong, Seung-Soo;Kim, Yong-Ha;Lee, See-Woo
    • Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 1984
  • Analyses of an integrated form $N(\tau)={\int}_{\tau}^{\infty}n(\tau)d{\tau}$ of the distribution of cluster ages, rather than its differential form $n(\tau)$, demonstrate that the observed distribution has clusters older than about 500 million years in a significant excess over theoretical model distributions. Considerations on cluster disruption processes show that a single disruption time-scale, frequently employed by current theoretical models, is no longer an adequate parameter for describing survival probability of clusters over wide age range, because different initial conditions of these clusters produce corresponding spreads in their lifetimes. To take into account for the spread in initial conditions, we have introduced an age-dependent disruption time, and deduced its age-dependence from the present-day age distribution of clusters. Results show a distinct two-stage variation: The newly introduced disruption time stays constant at about 50 million years for clusters younger than about 100 million years, while for clusters older than that it increases monotonically with the cluster age. This leads us to conclude that clusters experience different types of disrupting causes as they get old.

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Saturated Performance Analysis of IEEE 802.11 DCF with Imperfect Channel Sensing (불완전 채널 감지하의 IEEE 802.11 DCF 포화상태 성능 분석)

  • Shin, Soo-Young;Chae, Seog
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, performance of IEEE 802.11 carrier-sense multiple access with collision-avoidance (CSMA/CA) protocols in saturated traffic conditions is presented taking into account the impact of imperfect channel sensing. The imperfect channel sensing includes both missed-detection and false alarm and their impact on the performance of IEEE 802.11 is analyzed and expressed as a closed form. To include the imperfect channel sensing at the physical layer, we modified the state transition probabilities of well-known two state Markov process model. Simulation results closely match the theoretical expressions confirming the effectiveness of the proposed model. Based on both theoretical and simulated results, the probability of detection is concluded as a dominant factor for the performance of IEEE 802.11.

Some Theoretical Foundations on the Necessities and Functions of Global Electronic Transactions Act (전자무역 활성화를 위한 글로벌 전자무역거래법의 요건과 역할기능의 이론적 기초)

  • Kim, Ki-Sun
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.17
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    • pp.129-146
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    • 2002
  • The electronic technology development have occurred in the face of existing legal barriers to legal efficacy of computer information goods, and the liberating promise of electronic transactions cannot fully realized unless there is predictability in the legal rules that govern such transactions. This study analyzes some theoretical fundamentals of the Act. First, it proposes that the Act clarify and set forth uniform legal principles applicable to computer information transactions. Secondly, it suggests that if the individual is risk averse, the acceptance set for electronic transactions will be a convex set, and that the application of the Act will make the acceptance set more expanded by lowering the probability of conflicts and by downsizing the risk averness. Thirdly, it also suggest that through the mothod of contingent commodities analysis, the application of the Act by means of its restricted regulations will give more expected utility than the absence of the Act. Fourthly, it derives some implications that the degree of legitimate restriction will be affected by the objective risk inherent to the electronic transactions, and the individual's subjective risk-averseness. Finally, it concludes that harmonization of restriction and protection of individual's rights in electronic transaction process will be a necessary condition for more efficient body of law from the law-economic perspectives.

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A Study on Commercial Power of Traditional Market

  • Baik, Key-Young;Youn, Myoung-Kil
    • East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2016
  • This study investigated commercial power theory of traditional market through the analysis of literature review. Consumers' store selection models are made up a theory based on normative hypothesis, theory of mutual reaction, utility function estimation model, and cognitive-behavioral model. Detailed models are as follows. Normative hypothesis based theory is divided into Reilly's retail gratification theory and Converse's revised retail g ratification theory. Interaction theory is composed of Huff's probability gratification theory, MCI model and Multi-nominal Logit Model (MNL model). There are four models in retail organization position theory such as central place theories, single store position theory, multi store position - assign model, and retail growth potential model. In case of single store position theory, theoretical and empirical techniques have developed for a decision to optimum single store position. Those are like these, a check list, the most simple and systematic method, analogy, and microanalysis technique. Aforementioned models are theoretical and mathematical commercial power measurement and/or model. The study has rather limitations because the variation factors included in formula are only a part of actual commercial power. Therefore, further study shall be made continuously to commercial power areas and variables.

Integrating Perceived Enjoyment within the UTAUT Model for Enhanced Distribution Management Strategies

  • Putu Yudi SETIAWAN;Ni Putu Cempaka Dharmadewi ATMAJA;I Gusti Ayu TIRTAYANI
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.13-23
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: Within the ever-changing realm of modern e-commerce, this study delves into the complex effects of factors like performance expectations, ease of use, social influence, favorable conditions, and enjoyment perception on users' intentions and usage patterns in online marketplace apps. The research centres on Tokopedia app users in Denpasar City, encompassing a wide and varied demographic. Methods: Utilizing a non-probability sampling method, 200 participants were selected for extensive data collection through surveys. Subsequent rigorous analysis of the gathered data was performed using Structural Equation Modeling-Partial Least Squares (SEM-PLS) techniques. Results: This study aims to contribute substantially to theoretical and practical knowledge regarding marketplace app usage. Theoretical contributions involve enhancing the marketing domain, especially in digital marketing, by revealing the intricate factors influencing user conduct in online marketplaces. From a practical standpoint, this research provides valuable insights for entrepreneurs aspiring to join or improve their positions in the Tokopedia app market. Conclusion: Based on the study, we suggest optimising online shopping apps for a more appealing and user-friendly interface. Enhancing the enjoyment and simplicity of finding desired products can prompt heightened usage of online shopping services, thereby reinforcing distribution management strategies and overall market presence.