• Title/Summary/Keyword: theoretical probability

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GRAVITATIONAL LENSING AND THE GEOMETRY OF THE UNIVERSE

  • Park, Myeong-Gu
    • Publications of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.79-87
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    • 1992
  • New and improved data on the gravitational lens systems discovered so far are compared with the theoretical predictions of Gott, Park, and Lee (1989, GPL). Systems lensed by a single galaxy, compatible with assumptions of GPL, support flat or near-flat geometry for the universe. But the statistical uncertainty is too large to draw any definite conclusion. We need more lens systems. Also, the probability of multiple image lensing and mean separation of the images averaged over the source distribution are calculated for various cosmological models. Multiple-image lens systems and radio ring systems are compared with the predictions. Although the data reject exotic cosmological models, it cannot discriminate among conventional Friedmann models yet.

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Electron Field Emission for a Cylindrical Emitter of Single Carbon Nanotube

  • Lee, Youn-Ju;Kim, Chang-Duk;Lee, Hyeong-Rag
    • 한국정보디스플레이학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2007.08a
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    • pp.764-767
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    • 2007
  • We investigated the field emission of single carbon nanotube including the anode effect by calculating the tunneling probability of an electron. The experimental results from this study were in agreement with our theoretical calculations. The constant enhancement factor was calculated using an approximation of the potential barrier.

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Theoretical Study on Structures and Energetics of Small Water Clusters

  • Park Yeong Jae;Kang Young Kee;Yoon Byoung Jip;Jhon Mu Shik
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.50-55
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    • 1982
  • A study of small water clusters composed of two to seven molecules has been performed by using the revised empirical potential function for conformational analysis (REPFCA). Various structures of clusters have been investigated and the relative probability of cluster per molecule is discussed. In general, cyclic structures of water clusters are more favorable than open structures. It is found that cyclic pentamer is the most favorable unit structure in the water cluster.

Theoretical Considerations for the Agresti-Coull Type Confidence Interval in Misclassified Binary Data (오분류된 이진자료에서 Agresti-Coull유형의 신뢰구간에 대한 이론적 고찰)

  • Lee, Seung-Chun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.445-455
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    • 2011
  • Although misclassified binary data occur frequently in practice, the statistical methodology available for the data is rather limited. In particular, the interval estimation of population proportion has relied on the classical Wald method. Recently, Lee and Choi (2009) developed a new confidence interval by applying the Agresti-Coull's approach and showed the efficiency of their proposed confidence interval numerically, but a theoretical justification has not been explored yet. Therefore, a Bayesian model for the misclassified binary data is developed to consider the Agresti-Coull confidence interval from a theoretical point of view. It is shown that the Agresti-Coull confidence interval is essentially a Bayesian confidence interval.

An Optimization Method for the Calculation of SCADA Main Grid's Theoretical Line Loss Based on DBSCAN

  • Cao, Hongyi;Ren, Qiaomu;Zou, Xiuguo;Zhang, Shuaitang;Qian, Yan
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.1156-1170
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    • 2019
  • In recent years, the problem of data drifted of the smart grid due to manual operation has been widely studied by researchers in the related domain areas. It has become an important research topic to effectively and reliably find the reasonable data needed in the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system has become an important research topic. This paper analyzes the data composition of the smart grid, and explains the power model in two smart grid applications, followed by an analysis on the application of each parameter in density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) algorithm. Then a comparison is carried out for the processing effects of the boxplot method, probability weight analysis method and DBSCAN clustering algorithm on the big data driven power grid. According to the comparison results, the performance of the DBSCAN algorithm outperforming other methods in processing effect. The experimental verification shows that the DBSCAN clustering algorithm can effectively screen the power grid data, thereby significantly improving the accuracy and reliability of the calculation result of the main grid's theoretical line loss.

Evaluation of Drought Events Using the Rectangular Pulses Poisson Process Model (구형펄스모형을 이용한 가뭄사상의 평가)

  • Yoo, Chul-Sang;Kim, Dae-Ha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.4 s.165
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    • pp.373-382
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    • 2006
  • In this study a theoretical drought severity-duration-frequency analysis is performed based on a simple Rectangular Pulses Poisson Process Model(RPPM). Data set with various durations are prepared for a given truncation level, whose statistics are then derived to be used for parameter estimation. These parameters are then used for the theoretical drought severity-duration-frequency analysis. The analysis is considered for two cases; one is to consider the overlap probability and the other is not. The drought severity of considering the overlap probability increases more as the return period increases. However, the overlap probability itself decreases as the duration increases, which is because the occurrence probability of events decreases as the duration increases. Also, if the duration increases, the events rarely or even not occur, since parameters of the model cannot be estimated in those cases, so the drought severity may not be computed. This is an obvious limitation of the simple RPPM. In this study the return periods of the important drought events occurred in Seoul are estimated using the results of the study. If the return period of an event is assumed to be the longest one among those with various durations, the return periods of some important event in Seoul are estimated to be between 14 and 35 years. These return periods are not so long to indicate that these droughts can occur frequently.

Effective Reference Probability Incorporating the Effect of Expiration Time in Web Cache (웹 캐쉬에서 만기시간의 영향을 고려한 유효참조확률)

  • Lee, Jeong-Joon;Moon, Yang-Se;Whang, Kyu-Young;Hong, Eui-Kyung
    • Journal of KIISE:Databases
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.688-701
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    • 2001
  • Web caching has become an important problem addressing the performance issues in web applications. In this paper we propose a method that enhances the performance of web caching by incorporating the expiration time of web data we introduce the notion of the effective reference probability that incorporates the effect of expiration time into the reference probability used in the existing cache replacement algorithms .We formally define the effective reference probability and derive it theoretically using a probabilistic model. By simply replacing probabilities with the effective reference probability in the existing cache replacement algorithms we can take the effect of expiration time into account The results of performance evaluation through experiments show that the replacement algorithms using the effective reference probability always outperform the existing ones. The reason is that the proposed method precisely reflects the theoretical probability of getting the cache effect, and thus, incorporates the influence of the expiration time more effectively. In particular when the cache fraction is 0.05 and data update is comparatively frequent (i.e. the update frequency is more than 1/0 of the reference frequency) the performance enhancement is more than 30% in LRU-2 and 13% in Aggarwal's method (PSS integrating a refresh overhead factor) The results show that effective reference probability contributes significantly to the performance enhancement of the web cache in the presence of expiration time.

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Outage Analysis and Optimization for Time Switching-based Two-Way Relaying with Energy Harvesting Relay Node

  • Du, Guanyao;Xiong, Ke;Zhang, Yu;Qiu, Zhengding
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.545-563
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    • 2015
  • Energy harvesting (EH) and network coding (NC) have emerged as two promising technologies for future wireless networks. In this paper, we combine them together in a single system and then present a time switching-based network coding relaying (TSNCR) protocol for the two-way relay system, where an energy constrained relay harvests energy from the transmitted radio frequency (RF) signals from two sources, and then helps the two-way relay information exchange between the two sources with the consumption of the harvested energy. To evaluate the system performance, we derive an explicit expression of the outage probability for the proposed TSNCR protocol. In order to explore the system performance limit, we formulate an optimization problem to minimize the system outage probability. Since the problem is non-convex and cannot be directly solved, we design a genetic algorithm (GA)-based optimization algorithm for it. Numerical results validate our theoretical analysis and show that in such an EH two-way relay system, if NC is applied, the system outage probability can be greatly decreased. Moreover, it is shown that the relay position greatly affects the system performance of TSNCR, where relatively worse outage performance is achieved when the relay is placed in the middle of the two sources. This is the first time to observe such a phenomena in EH two-way relay systems.

Probability Based Risk Evaluation Techniques for the Small-Sized Sea Floater (소형 해상 부유체의 확률 기반 위기평가기법)

  • Yim, Jeong-Bin
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.36 no.10
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    • pp.795-801
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    • 2012
  • This paper describes theoretical approach methodology for the Probability based risk Evaluation Techniques (PET) to monitor the risk levels of small-sized sea floater as like a yacht pier. The risk decision-making process by risk criteria with five-step scales is the core concepts of PET. These five-step scales are calculated from cumulative probability distribution of response functions for the sea floater motions using closed-form expressions. In addition, The risk decision-making process of PET with the risk criteria is proposed in this work. To verify the usability of PET, simulation experiments are carried out using mimic signals with the electrical specifications of ADIS16405 sensor that is to be use as measurement tool for the floater motions. As results from experiments, the risk evaluation error by PET shows 0.38 levels in maximum 5.0 levels. These results clearly shown that the proposed PET can be use as the monitoring techniques.

Statistical Properties of Random Sparse Arrays with Application to Array Design (어레이 설계 응용을 위한 랜덤어레이의 통계적 성질)

  • Kook, Hyung-Seok;Davies, Patricia;Bolton, J.Stuart
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2000.06a
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    • pp.1493-1510
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    • 2000
  • Theoretical models that can be used to predict the range of main lobe widths and the probability distribution of the peak sidelobe levels of two-dimensionally sparse arrays are presented here. The arrays are considered to comprise microphones that are randomly positioned on a segmented grid of a given size. First, approximate expressions for the expected squared magnitude of the aperture smoothing function and the variance of the squared magnitude of the aperture smoothing function about this mean are formulated for the random arrays considered in the present study. By using the variance function, the mean value and the lower end of the range i.e., the first I percent of the mainlobe distribution can be predicted with reasonable accuracy. To predict the probability distribution of the peak sidelobe levels, distributions of levels are modeled by a Weibull distribution at each peak in the sidelobe region of the expected squared magnitude of the aperture smoothing function. The two parameters of the Weibull distribution are estimated from the means and variances of the levels at the corresponding locations. Next, the probability distribution of the peak sidelobe levels are assumed to be determined by a procedure in which the peak sidelobe level is determined as the maximum among a finite number of independent random sidelobe levels. It is found that the model obtained from the above approach predicts the probability density function of the peak sidelobe level distribution reasonably well for the various combinations of two different numbers of microphones and grid sizes tested in the present study. The application of these models to the design of random, sparse arrays having specified performance levels is also discussed.

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