• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.3-62
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• 2004

This paper estimates Korea's natural rate of unemployment using various estimation methods such as pure time-series methods, reduced-form methods, and structural form methods, with discussion about relative advantages and disadvantages of each estimation method. This paper also provides the confidence interval of the estimated natural rate of unemployment by the Monte Carlo integration method. Though multivariate unobserved component model exhibits better performance in many aspects than other estimation methods, awareness should be raised for a potential misspecification problem of a multivariate unobserved component model. Considering that each method has its own advantages and disadvantages, it is recommended to make an inference on the natural rate of unemployment based on common results among various methods. Korea's natural rate of unemployment was estimated to be around 3.8~4.0% on average in the period of 1979:I~1987:IV, and to decline to 2.5~2.9% in the period of 1988:I~1997:IV. During the Asian crisis, it is estimated to peak at near 4.8% and to have been on a downward trend since then.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.10 no.9
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• pp.79-87
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• 2012

While the youth unemployment problem has come to extend over a long period of time, because of the promotion policy of youth inauguration of an enterprise, many youths have been considering the start-up to be an alternative of the working. But it is said that many youths who had started an enterprise through the start-up education and related programs were unsuccessful mostly and dashed to get a job or became the delinquent borrower. This article will examine the actual conditions of the youth unemployment and the present conditions of promotion policy of the youth start-up, analyse problems as a result of this examination, propose alternatives of policy to revitalize the youth start-up.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.1-29
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• 2016

This study examines the effects of the "youth unemployment bonus" program implemented in 2004. We view this program through the lenz of search-matching models and apply a quasi-experimental approach to an administrative unemployment insurance database of Korea. This episode is particularly useful because the program aims at long-term unemployed youths and the size of public assistance is large enough to subsidize employers for a year with a monthly subsidy of about $600. The main effects are found to be as follows: (i) the search period gets shortened by 18 days, (ii) the subsequent wage has increased by about three percents, and (iii) a conservative benefit-cost analysis reveals the validity of this program. We interpret these results in the context of general equilibrium models.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.91-134
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• 2010

This study examines job transition process and its lahor market performance by reasons of job separation, using the Employment Insurance DB(2000~07). The findings show that involuntary job changers lend to suffer greater loss in job spell and real wage than voluntary job changers, which seems to reflect their characteristics such as lower quality of job matching due to unsystematic job search, negative signaling effect in the labor market and decreasing availability of human capital in previous job. In addition, unemployment benefit eligible for involuntary job changers tends to prolong the period of unemployment, while increasing job spell in the following employment.

• The Journal of Korean Institute for Practical Engineering Education
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.144-149
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• 2012

This paper reviews the uncovered people of the Korean Employment Insurance System (EIS) and analyzes policy options for minimizing the dead zone of the EIS. There are several policy options such as subsidizing insurance premium to employers and employees of small companies, extending coverage of excluded groups, relaxing qualifications of unemployment benefits and increasing benefit period and level, introducing the unemployment assistance system, introducing the unemployment insurance savings account system, extending coverage to non-wage workers and individualizing package services. According to the survey to the specialists and comparative evaluation criteria, the best policy option to minimize the dead zone of the EIS was to activate individualizing package services of intensive consultation, job place services, tailored vocational training, income support, daycare services, etc. to cure complex employment barriers of job seekers.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.109-128
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• 2002

Korean economy has contains many economic problems during past 2-3 years. One of these problems is unemployment rate rise rapidly. So Korean government has proposed many programs to deal specifically with male and female unemployment. But important things are not only administratoin's programs but also unemployed persons' reservation wage. Accordingly the purpose of this thesis is to analyze why reservation wages differ between male and female. The data we are going to use is the unemployment survey by researcher in 1998. By the result of the estimation of reservation wage functions, we are found two fact. The first is the principle of determinants reservation wage are different between male and female. In esimation of male reservation wage function, early wage and age, education level, unemployment period are very important determinants. But in esimation of female reservation wage function, early wage and education level, age, licence are very important determinants. The second is the reservation wage-setting mechanisms are different between male and fermale. Therefore we conclude that because Korean labor market is stratified labor market, reservation wage-setting mechanisms are much different by sex.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.129-146
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• 2014

This paper investigates how industrial diversity affects unemployment and employment instability from the perspective of the regional economy. Through this analysis, we examine how the industry-specific policy to promote some industry strategically in most of areas affects the stability of the regional economy. We measure Herfindahl indexes using the 1993-2010 data of 16 regions in Korea, and use panel regression model for empirical analysis. The main results from this empirical analysis are summarized as follows. First, we confirm that the industrial structure of most regions has been changed to the direction of specialization in 1990s and to the direction of diversification in 2000s through analyzing the changes in the values of Herfindahl indexes during the given period. Second, we find from the estimation results of panel regression model that the higher industrial diversity in most of regions is, the lower the unemployment rate is. However, a statistically significant relationship between industrial diversity and employment instability only partially confirmed. Third, there exist high unemployment rate and employment instability in most metropolitan areas, but it is hard to say that this relationship is highly statistically significant. From the results of the empirical analysis, it is likely that the industry-specific policies such as the regional strategic industry development policies unlike policy goals make the unemployment rate to rise and economic instability to increase. From the viewpoint of employment aspects, the strategies to increase industrial diversity would be desirable rather than those to specialize in the industrial structure.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.39-50
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• 2022

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine how Korea's macroeconomic factors, such as GDP, CPI, Export, Import, Unemployment rate and USD/KRW exchange rate, are affected by the oil price shocks. Design/methodology/approach - This study used monthly and quarterly time-series data of each variable for the period 1983 to 2022, consisting of two sub-periods, to employ Granger causality test and GARCH method in order to identify the role of the oil price movement in macroeconomic factors in Korea. Findings - Korea's currency rate to the US dollar is negatively correlated with the price change of crude oil while the GDP change is positively correlated with the price change of crude oil with strong relationship between Export and Import in particular. The exchange rate and GDP growth are believed to be not correlated with the oil price change for the pre-GFC period. According to the Granger causality test, the price change in crude oil has a causal impact on CPI, Export and Import while other factors are relatively slightly affected. Transmission effect from the oil price to Export is found and there also exists volatility spillover from oil price to economic variables under examination. Comparing two sub-periods, CPI and Export volatility responds negatively to shocks in the oil price for the pre-GFC period while volatility of CPI and Unemployment reacts positively to the oil price shocks for the post-GFC period. Research implications or Originality - The findings of this study could be helpful for both domestic and international investors to build their portfolio for the risk management since rising WTI price can be interpreted as a result of global economic growth and ensuing increase in the worldwide demand of the crude oil. Consequently, the national output is expected to increase and the currency is also expected to be strong in the long run.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.51-61
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• 2023

Purpose - Since COVID-19, the government's expansion of liquidity to stimulate the economy has resulted in an increase in private debt and an increase in asset prices of such as real estate and stocks. The recent sharp rise of the US Federal fund rate and tapering by the Fed have led to a fast rise in domestic interest rates, putting a heavy burden on the Korean economy, where the level of household debt is very high. Excessive household debt might have negative effects on the economy, such as shrinking consumption, economic recession, and deepening economic inequality. Therefore, now more than ever, it is necessary to identify the causes of the increase in household debt. Design/methodology/approach - Main methodology is regression analysis. Dependent variable is household loans from depository institutions. Independent variables are consumer price index, unemployment rate, household loan interest rate, housing sales price index, and composite stock price index. The sample periods are from 2017 to May 2022, comprising 72 months of data. The comparative analysis period before and after COVID-19 is from January 2017 to December 2019 for the pre-COVID-19 period, and from Jan 2020 to December 2022 for the post-COVID-19 period. Findings - Looking at the results of the regression analysis for the entire period, it was found that increases in the consumer price index, unemployment rate, and household loan interest rates decrease household loans, while increases in the housing sales price index increase household loans. Research implications or Originality - Household loans of depository institutions are mainly made up of high-credit and high-income borrowers with good repayment ability, so the risk of the financial system is low. As household loans are closely linked to the real estate market, the risk of household loan defaults may increase if real estate prices fall sharply.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.16 no.7
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• pp.19-26
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• 2018

This study is purposed to analyze how the utilization of rehabilitation services and the desire for service utilization changes with time, to explain the factors affecting service needs and to suggest direction of policy improvement for injured workers. Using the Workers' Compensation Insurance Panel Data ver.1~3, this study analyzed 5,004 observations. Panel regression analysis was performed using STATA to examine changes over time. Two key findings were made: first, the factors influencing the degree of need for rehabilitation services were age, educational period, ability on job performance, community service experience, re-employment and unemployment; second, the significant factors influencing the degree of need for rehabilitation services according to time were age, education period, unemployment, ability on job performance, and experience in using community services. That results were different from the previous cross-section analysis. These findings indicate that it is necessary to check and adjust the initial intervention contents after the end of the period of care on a timely base.