• Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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• 제29권5호
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• pp.441-450
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• 2004

This study was performed to estimate mid and long term demands of a tractor, a rice transplanter, a combine and a grain dryer by using logistic curve function and Markov chain model. Field survey was done to decide some parameters far logistic curve function and Markov chain model. Ceiling values of tractor and combine fer logistic curve function analysis were 209,280 and 85,607 respectively. Based on logistic curve function analysis, total number of tractors increased slightly during the period analysed. New demand for combine was found to be zero. Markov chain analysis was carried out with 2 scenarios. With the scenario 1(rice price $10\%$ down and current supporting policy by government), new demand for tractor was decreased gradually up to 700 unit in the year 2012. For combine, new demand was zero. Regardless of scenarios, the replacement demand was increased slightly after 2003. After then, the replacement demand is decreased after the certain time. Two analysis of logistic owe function and Markov chain model showed the similar trend in increase and decrease for total number of tractors and combines. However, the difference in numbers of tractors and combines between the results from 2 analysis got bigger as the time passed.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권10호
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• pp.571-579
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• 2020

This paper examines how human capital and other economic variables, such as private investment, economic growth, government investment, inflation, and unemployment influence inequality in Indonesia's provinces. We apply panel data model with fixed effect estimation for the data of 34 provinces from the period 2013 to 2019. We develop a new index for human capital using the education index approach. The results show that human capital has a negative and significant effect on income inequality. An increase in human capital is related to an increase in knowledge and competence due to the longer average school year and expectations of the school year. Human capital has increased the possibility of a person being accepted into the job market and earning a higher income; hence, it lowers income inequality. We also find that inflation leads to a higher gap of income distribution. A further implication of this situation is that the rise in inflation causes an increase in low-income people, and as a consequence, makes their lives worse off. This paper will be beneficial for policy-makers for whom human capital, which is measured using an education index, is an important factor that significantly affects income inequality, in addition to other economic factors.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.1-25
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• 2009

본 논문은 일반적인 뉴 케인지언 이론의 주요 특징을 바탕으로 하는 동태적 확률 일반 균형 모형을 설정하고 이를 바탕으로 하여, 베이지안 추정법을 통해 한국의 자연 산출량과 자연 이자율의 추정을 시도하였다. 본 논문의 주요 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 이러한 이론 모형에 의해 추정된 산출량 갭은 기존의 일반적인 접근법에 의한 추정치보다 변동 폭이 훨씬 작은 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 다양한 모형 설정을 통해 결과의 민감도를 살펴본 경우, 필립스 커브에서의 과거 지향적 요인 및 소비 행태에서의 습관 형성 등이 한국 거시경제의 동태적 양상을 설명하는 데 중요한 요인일 수 있는 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국지리정보학회지
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.167-179
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• 2016

최근 범지구적으로 증가하는 이상기후에 의해 SOC 시설물 안전이 지속적으로 위협받고 있다. 재난대응을 위해서는 피난 대피 경로 제시 등과 같은 신속한 의사결정이 필요하며 이는 재난 재해 정보 및 SOC 시설물 정보가 융 복합된 시공간적 정보가 활용되어야 한다. 이러한 정보는 정부 및 유관기관에서 분산적으로 수집되고 있어, 통합적 관리가 이루어지지 않고 있는 실정이다. 신속한 재난대응을 위해서는 분산 수집 관리되고 있는 재난 재해 정보의 통합관리와 SOC 시설물에 대한 안전도와 피해도 등의 정보 생성이 필요하다. 또한 재난 재해 정보 특성상 시공간적 융합이 필요하기 때문에, 관련 정보를 통합한 재해대응 의사결정 지원을 위한 인벤토리 구축이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 신속한 재난대응의사결정 지원을 위한 시설물 중요도 위험도 피해액 인벤토리 구축 방안을 제시한다. 본 연구를 통해 분산 관리 되고 있는 재난 재해 및 SOC 시설물 관련 데이터를 수집하여 표준화 하고, 시설물의 중요도 위험도 피해액 산정에 필요한 통합 정보를 제공 할 수 있다. 향후 제안된 시스템을 통해 선제적 재난 대응을 위한 의사결정 도구로 활용할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제12권5호
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• pp.139-148
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• 2014

최근에는 모수(Parametric) 추정방법을 적용한 전산모델들이 개발되어 비용분석을 보다 효율적으로 예측할 수 있는 용도로 사용되고 있는 추세이다. 본 연구에서는 유도무기체계 분야 중 유도조종장치에 대한 데이터 경험치를 활용하여 공학적 추정 방법과 상용전산모델(Price H, HL, M, S)의 비용분석을 수행하고, 그 결과를 분석하여 차이점과 원인을 파악하였다. 전산모델의 수치적 데이터로 살펴 본 바에 따르면 유사장비 데이터베이스와의 비교 값을 근거로 하여 보정된 결과 값을 도출한 후, 공학적 추정방법으로 산정된 금액과 비교결과 근사한 수치를 보여 보정작업을 통한 데이터의 신뢰도가 향상됨을 알 수 있었다. 본 연구에서 개발비 추정 시, 많은 부분을 불확실한 요소에서 추정하였으나, 객관성을 확보할 수 있는 전산모델을 선택하여 사례를 연구함으로서 신뢰성을 높일 수 있었다. 이는 기존의 축적된 개발비 데이터에 근거하여 변수를 중심으로 한 추정방법을 기초로 합리적인 추정방법으로도 활용할 수 있음을 비용분석의 전산모델 보정(Calibration)을 통하여 밝혀냄으로써 보다 효율적인 비용 예측 기능에 일조할 것으로 사료된다.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.685-715
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• 2004

본 연구는 대규모 퇴비화 시설물이 특정 지역에 건립될 경우 지역주민들의 님비(NIMBY) 행태의 결정요인에 대해 2변수 선택 모형에 근거하여 경제적 분석을 한다. 실증분석을 위해 제주시 지역주민들을 대상으로 한 설문데이터를 이용 로짓추정을 한다. 실증분석 결과는 이론모형에서 유도된 실증모형이 예측하는 바와 일치됨을 보였다 즉, 부(負)의 근린특성변수(긍정적 부(富)의 속성변수)가 지역주민들의 님비 행태에 정(부)의 영향을 끼친다. 반면 본 연구에서 인구통계 요인은 유의하지 않았으며 이는 정책 입안자가 혐오시설 입지 선정시 타 지역에서 유의하게 밝혀진 인구 통계 요인을 다른 지역에 단순 외삽(外揷)할 경우 정책실효성에 문제가 있을 수 있음을 시사한다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.317-324
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• 2020

The study aims to analyze the theoretical background of the economic growth and sustainable development; systematization of scientists view on monitoring and economic and innovative evaluation, analysis and diagnosis of factors affecting these processes. Rating characteristics of the level of innovative resources development obtained based on the comparative analysis of Kazakhstan regions. Calculations were done based on official statistics during 2010 and 2015-2017. Based on obtained data there has been grading of the country regions and their ratings were determined by the level of development of innovative resources. This research identifies areas and mechanisms to ensure balanced sustainable development of the national economy. The findings suggest that sustainable development of the state is affected by the innovative activity of the regions, the sustainable development of which is ensured by innovative enterprises. Transition to the model of sustainable territorial development involves the formation of such conditions and the use of mechanisms under which the natural base of this development is not destroyed, the environment suitable for human existence is preserved and reproduced. The findings of this research support for pursuing a national policy of reducing regional imbalances, and promoting a more balanced and sustainable development of the whole country.

• 무역학회지
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• 제45권1호
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• pp.137-153
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• 2020

On February 14, 2019, the government of Korea formally decided to consider the feasibility of joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and has since been conducting bilateral consultations with individual member countries. In terms of the impact estimation, the CPTPP is actually a Korea-Japan FTA, and the most sensitive issue in the FTA is the opening of the auto industry market to Japan. Despite these circumstances, previous studies have predicted that the auto industry will be a beneficiary industry when joining the CPTPP. However, the Korean auto industry is opposed to joining the CPTPP. In order to investigate the cause of this discrepancy, this paper examines the problems of previous studies in estimating the impact of joining the CPTPP and found that the preceding study did not consider the industrial characteristics of the auto sector, especially in the context of Japan-Korea trade, and was heavily dependent on the Armington elasticity (structure) in the demand function of the GTAP CGE model. As a result, the domestic auto sector could lower prices and increase exports when joining the CPTPP. This paper attempts to precisely re-estimate the impact of joining the CPTPP on the auto sector in a way that corrects these problems by changing the CGE model and reflecting the major characteristics of the industry, with policy implications for the negotiation of CPTPP accession.

• 보건행정학회지
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.97-106
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• 2015

Background & Methods: The purpose of this research is to estimate the efficiency of the pharmaceutical firms and the determinants of their efficiency. Stochastic frontier analysis(SFA) and panel study are applied to the data of 60 domestic pharmaceutical firms from 2006 to 2012. Results & Conclusion: First, the result of the stochastic frontier analysis shows that overall efficiency of the pharmaceutical firms is increasing as time goes by. However, if firms are classified by the scale, the larger firms show more efficiency and if classified by the degree of innovativeness, the innovative firms show more efficiency compared to the non-innovative firms. This evidences show that the scale and R&D investment have significant relationships with the efficiency of the pharmaceutical firms. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the national level of investment for the fundamental researches to vitalize R&D of the new drugs. Second, the result of estimation of the determinants of efficiency shows that the firms with larger sales promotion expenses and entertainment expenses have less efficiency compared to the other firms. This can be explained by the structural characteristics of the small generic pharmaceutical firms. Therefore, the government had better make the pharmaceutical firms to reduce sales promotion and entertainment expenses and increase R&D expenses by introducing systems such as global budgeting system on medicine or reference pricing system.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제50권2호
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• pp.249-260
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• 2023

Duck farming restriction refers to a program in which duck farms suspend their operations for a certain period at times when the risk of avian influenza (AI) is high and receive compensation from the Korean government. This study analyzed the effect of this duck farming restriction on the incidence of AI using data on regional AI incidence rates, the program participation rate, and characteristics of poultry farming in 2016 (before the implementation of the restriction), as well as data from 2020 and 2021 (when new AI outbreaks occurred). In this study, the treatment group was divided into five subgroups according to the policy participation rate and a difference-in-difference (DID) estimation was conducted using certain covariates, in this case the average number of ducks raised, the land area, the number of high-susceptibility farms, the number of low-susceptibility farms, the average number of farms within a 3 km radius, the average distance to the nearest farm, and a year dummy. The results showed that when more than 30% of all duck farms in a region participated in the farming restriction, it had a statistically significant effect on the incidence of AI. Specifically, when more than 30, 40, 50, and 60% of all duck farms participated in the farming restriction, the AI incidence rate decreased by 0.7184, 1.0025, 1.5844, and 1.5843%p, respectively.