Korea Trade Review (무역학회지)

Korea Trade Research Association (한국무역학회)
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Study on the Impact of Joining the CPTPP on the Korean Auto Industry

CPTPP 가입이 국내 자동차산업에 미치는 영향 연구

  • Jung-Ran Cho (Department of FTA Trade Policy & Business Consulting, Inha University)
  • 조정란 (인하대학교 FTA통상정책.비즈니스컨설팅전공)
  • Received : 2020.02.11
  • Accepted : 2020.02.26
  • Published : 2020.02.28
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Abstract

On February 14, 2019, the government of Korea formally decided to consider the feasibility of joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and has since been conducting bilateral consultations with individual member countries. In terms of the impact estimation, the CPTPP is actually a Korea-Japan FTA, and the most sensitive issue in the FTA is the opening of the auto industry market to Japan. Despite these circumstances, previous studies have predicted that the auto industry will be a beneficiary industry when joining the CPTPP. However, the Korean auto industry is opposed to joining the CPTPP. In order to investigate the cause of this discrepancy, this paper examines the problems of previous studies in estimating the impact of joining the CPTPP and found that the preceding study did not consider the industrial characteristics of the auto sector, especially in the context of Japan-Korea trade, and was heavily dependent on the Armington elasticity (structure) in the demand function of the GTAP CGE model. As a result, the domestic auto sector could lower prices and increase exports when joining the CPTPP. This paper attempts to precisely re-estimate the impact of joining the CPTPP on the auto sector in a way that corrects these problems by changing the CGE model and reflecting the major characteristics of the industry, with policy implications for the negotiation of CPTPP accession.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 논문은 인하대학교 지원을 받아 수행된 연구임.

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