• Title/Summary/Keyword: the estimation of policy

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An estimation on the market environment of Uzbekistan and the strategic direction for the Economic Cooperation (우즈베키스탄 시장의 환경 평가와 경제교류 전략의 방향성 분석)

  • Kim, Joong-Kwan
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.101-121
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    • 2010
  • This paper focuses on establishing strategies to ensure entry to the Uzbekistan in the process of developing business opportunities and managing industry. The study provides initiatives to maintain industrial competitiveness as well as policy guidance for entry and management on the Uzbekistan's industry. The most prominent feature of Uzbekistan's industrial development policy during the past decade is that it has undertaken an integrated policy approach to development which brought about sustainable economic development. In this development process, trade policy, manpower development policy, and technology policy were well coordinated and complementary to industrial policy in the Uzbekistan. This paper attempts to analyze Uzbekistan's custom and system in terms of broad industrial policy concept through resource and economic environment of Uzbekistan and to derive some lessons of market evaluation and policy implication for Korean government and industrial line.

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Analysis of residential natural gas consumption distribution function in Korea - a mixture model

  • Kim, Ho-Young;Lim, Seul-Ye;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.36-41
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    • 2014
  • The world's overall need for natural gas (NG) has been growing up fast, especially in the residential sector. The better the estimation of residential NG consumption (RNGC) distribution, the better decision-making for a residential NG policy such as pricing, demand estimation, management options and so on. Approximating the distribution of RNGC is complicated by zero observations in the sample. To deal with the zero observations by allowing a point mass at zero, a mixture model of RNGC distributions is proposed and applied. The RNGC distribution is specified as a mixture of two distributions, one with a point mass at zero and the other with full support on the positive half of the real line. The model is empirically verified for household RNGC survey data collected in Korea. The mixture model can easily capture the common bimodality feature of the RNGC distribution. In addition, when covariates were added to the model, it was found that the probability that a household has non-expenditure significantly varies with some variables. Finally, the goodness-of-fit test suggests that the data are well represented by the mixture model.

A Study on Development of Policy Attributes Taxonomy for Data-based Decision Making (데이터기반 의사결정을 위한 정책 및 사업 속성 분류체계 개발 연구)

  • Kim, Sarang
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.1-34
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    • 2020
  • Purpose Due to the complexity of policy environment in modern society, it is accepted as common basics of policy design to mix up a variety of policy instruments aiming the multiple functions. However, under the current situation of written-down policy specification, not only the public officers but also the policy researchers cannot easily grasp such frameworks as policy portfolio. The purpose of this study is to develop "Policy Attributes Taxonomy" identifying and classifying the public programs to help making decisions for allocative efficiency with effectiveness-based information. Design/methodology/approach To figure out the main scheme and classification criteria of Policy Attributes Taxonomy which represents characteristics of public policies, previous theories and researches on policy components were explored. In addition, to test taxonomic feasibility of certain information system, a set of "Feasibility Standards" was drawn from "requirements for well-organized criteria" of eminent taxonomy literatures. Finally, current government classification system in the area of social service was tested to visualize the application of Taxonomy and Standards. Findings Program Taxonomy Schemes were set including "policy goals", "policy targets", "policy tools", "logical relation" and "delivery system". Each program and project could be condensed into these attributes, making their design more easily distinguishable. Policy portfolio could be readily made out by extracting certain characteristics according to this scheme. Moreover, this taxonomy could be used for rearrangement of present "Program Budget System" or estimation of "Basic Income".

Estimation of the Effect of Water Quality Management Policy in Paldang Lake (팔당호 수질관리 정책의 효과 분석)

  • Choi, Jung-Hyun;Ha, Joo-Hyun;Park, Seok-Soon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.30 no.12
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    • pp.1225-1230
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    • 2008
  • A new approach based on the Seasonal Mann-Kendall Trend Analysis, was presented in this paper, in order to estimate effect of water quality management policy in Kyoungan Stream which is one of major tributaries into the Lake Paldang. The estimation was undertaken by comparing water quality trend slopes before and after implementation of the policy. The monthly water quality data of Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), Total Nitrogen (TN) and Total Phosphorus (TP) measured from 1992 to 2005, were analyzed to determine the Kendall slopes before and after the Han River special policy implemented at 1998. The results indicated that the 1998 special policy would be effective in water quality improvement not at upstream but at downstream. This result agrees well with the previous water quality studies at Kyoungan stream. It was suggested that the presented approach could be an useful tool to estimate effect of a water quality management policy.

Comparison of Benefit Estimation Models in Cost-Benefit Analysis: A Case of Chronic Hypertension Management Programs

  • Lim, Ji-Young;Kim, Mi-Ja;Park, Chang-Gi;Kim, Jung-Yun
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.750-757
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: Cost-benefit analysis is one of the most commonly used economic evaluation methods, which helps to inform the economic value of a program to decision makers. However, the selection of a correct benefit estimation method remains critical for accurate cost-benefit analysis. This paper compared benefit estimations among three different benefit estimation models. Methods: Data from community-based chronic hypertension management programs in a city in South Korea were used. Three different benefit estimation methods were compared. The first was a standard deterministic estimation model; second, a repeated-measures deterministic estimation model; and third, a transitional probability estimation model. Results: The estimated net benefit of the three different methods were $1,273.01, $-3,749.42, and $-5,122.55 respectively. Conclusion: The transitional probability estimation model showed the most correct and realistic benefit estimation, as it traced possible paths of changing status between time points and it accounted for both positive and negative benefits.

A Study on the Baseline Load Estimation Method using Heating Degree Days and Cooling Degree Days Adjustment (냉난방도일을 이용한 기준부하추정 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Wi, Young-Min
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.66 no.5
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    • pp.745-749
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    • 2017
  • Climate change and energy security are major factors for future national energy policy. To resolve these issues, many countries are focusing on creating new growth industries and energy services such as smartgrid, renewable energy, microgrid, energy management system, and peer to peer energy trading. The financial and economic evaluation of new energy services basically requires energy savings estimation technologies. This paper presents the baseline load estimation method, which is used to calculate energy savings resulted from participating in the new energy program, using moving average model with heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) adjustment. To demonstrate the improvement of baseline load estimation accuracy, the proposed method is tested. The results of case studies are presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed baseline load estimation method.

A Study on Trip Distribution Estimation Model's Accuracy: Using Daegu City O-D Tables (통행분포 예측모형별 예측 정확도(精確度)에 관한 연구: 대구시 O-D표를 대상으로)

  • Ryu, Yeong-Geun;Woo, Yong Han
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.43-59
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    • 2012
  • It is generally assumed about trip distribution estimation model that growth factor model's estimation accuracy is higher than that of other models in short-term and that gravity model's estimation accuracy is higher than that of other models in long-term. For validation of such assumptions, this study compares estimation accuracies of each estimation model using 3year(1988, 1992, 2004) O-D tables from Daegu city. Each estimation model's accuracy were compared by mid-size and large-size zone as well as short-term and long-term target years. The results show that the trip distribution estimation model selection by usual assumption is not always right.

An Estimation of the Cost of Children in Korea (우리나라 가계의 자녀양육 비용과 추정방법)

  • Lee, Seong-Lim
    • Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.77-90
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    • 2007
  • Using 2004 Household Income & Expenditure Survey, this study investigated difference in consumption pattern among the households with the different number of children, and estimated the monetary cost of rearing children. The findings were as following. First, the major consumption categories for raising children included the expenditures for education, food materials, utility, health, and communication. Second, the potential consumption needs for clothing & foot ware and culture & entertainment were not fully satisfied for the households with children compared to the households without children. Third, in the households with one child, the level of consumption was about two thirds of that in the households without children. It was slightly above half in the households with two children. Lower consumption level of the households with children was mainly due to the burden of the educational expenditure. Forth, the average monthly cost of raising children was estimated by 680 thousands Won for one child, and 104 thousand Won for two children. Lastly, the implications for the fertility policy and the methods for the estimation of the child cost were suggested based on the results.