Journal of Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회지)

Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

A Study on Trip Distribution Estimation Model's Accuracy: Using Daegu City O-D Tables

통행분포 예측모형별 예측 정확도(精確度)에 관한 연구: 대구시 O-D표를 대상으로

  • Received : 2012.09.18
  • Accepted : 2012.10.05
  • Published : 2012.10.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

It is generally assumed about trip distribution estimation model that growth factor model's estimation accuracy is higher than that of other models in short-term and that gravity model's estimation accuracy is higher than that of other models in long-term. For validation of such assumptions, this study compares estimation accuracies of each estimation model using 3year(1988, 1992, 2004) O-D tables from Daegu city. Each estimation model's accuracy were compared by mid-size and large-size zone as well as short-term and long-term target years. The results show that the trip distribution estimation model selection by usual assumption is not always right.

통행분포 예측시 목표년도가 단기일 경우에는 성장인자모형의 예측 정확도가 높고, 장기 목표년도의 경우에는 중력모형의 예측 정확도가 높은 것으로 인식되어 오고 있다. 이와 같은 예측모형 적용경향에 대한 검정을 위해 본 연구에서는 대구시 3개 년도(1988년, 1992년, 2004년)의 O-D표를 이용하여 통행분포 예측모형들의 정확도를 비교하였다. 비교는 분석 죤이 대죤인 경우와 중죤인 경우에서 예측모형별로 단기 목표년도의 정확도와 장기 목표년도 정확도를 구분하여 행하였다. 비교결과, 통행분포 예측모형의 통상적인 인식과 다른 결과가 있을 수 있다는 것이 규명되었다.

Keywords

References

  1. Dicky J. W. (1983), Metropolitan Transportation Planning, 2nd Edition, Bristol: Taylor & Francis. p.210.
  2. Giles D. E. A., Hampton P. (1981), Interval Estimation in the Calibration of Certain Trip Distribution Models, Transp. Res., Part B., pp.203-219.
  3. Goncalves M. B., Cursi J. E. S. (2001), Parameter Estimation in a Trip Distribution Model by Random Perturbation of a Descent Method, Transp. Res., Part B 35, pp.137-161. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0191-2615(99)00043-0
  4. Hallefjord Å., Jörnsten K. (1986), Gravity Models with Multiple Objectives Theory and Applications, Transp. Res., Part B 20, pp.19-39. https://doi.org/10.1016/0191-2615(86)90033-0
  5. Kim H. J. (1996), Testing Goodness of Fit of Gravity Models, J. Korean Soc. Transp., Vol.14, No.1, Korean Society of Transportation, pp.43-50.
  6. Lim S. B., Lee B. W. (1996), A Study on the Application of Gravity Model using 1990 Seoul O/D Data, J. Korean Soc. Transp., Vol.14, No.1, Korean Society of Transportation, pp.29-42.
  7. Lim Y. T. (2011), Integrated Trip Distribution/Mode Choice Model and Sensitivity Analysis, J. Korean Soc. Transp., Vol.29, No.2, Korean Society of Transportation, pp.81-89.
  8. Ryu Y. G. (2006), Development of an Improved Gravity Model Using Residuals, J. Korean Soc. Civil. Engineers., Vol26, 3D, pp.417-424.
  9. Yun D. S. (2001), Transportation Demand Analysis, Pakyoungsa, pp.72-139.