• Wind and Structures
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.423-435
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• 2021

Although existing algorithms can predict wind speed using historical observation data, for engineering feasibility, most use moment methods and probability density functions to estimate fitted parameters. However, extreme wind speed prediction accuracy for long-term return periods is not always dependent on how the optimized frequency distribution curves are obtained; long-term return periods emphasize general distribution effects rather than marginal distributions, which are closely related to potential extreme values. Moreover, there are different wind speed parent sample types; how to theoretically select the proper extreme value distribution is uncertain. The influence of different sampling time intervals has not been evaluated in the fitting process. To overcome these shortcomings, updated steps are introduced, involving parameter sensitivity analysis for different sampling time intervals. The extreme value prediction accuracy of unknown parent samples is also discussed. Probability analysis of mean wind is combined with estimation of the probability plot correlation coefficient and the maximum likelihood method; an iterative estimation algorithm is proposed. With the updated steps and comparison using a Monte Carlo simulation, a fitting policy suitable for different parent distributions is proposed; its feasibility is demonstrated in extreme wind speed evaluations at Longhua and Chuansha meteorological stations in Shanghai, China.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.459-483
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• 2010

This paper constructs the two-part tax-a combined form of output tax and entrance fee-for polluting oligopolists under endogenous entry. In the presence of external damage that varies exogenously with aggregate output, we show that the two-part tax produces the ex post Pigouvian rule and thus achieves the first-best optimum. We also examine a detailed analysis of the impact of the two-part tax on social welfare and government revenues. Finally, when estimation errors exist in the process of regulation, we identify the incentive conflicts between interest groups and analyze the effects of estimation errors on determining optimal tax. In particular, we show that if the regulator takes care of both welfare loss and revenue gain under the proposed two-part tax, not only over-estimation on the slope of external damage but also under-estimation on the slope of market demand should be taken into the policy consideration.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.49-83
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• 2011

Ever since the UN Summit agreed on the MDGs in 2000, OECD/DAC member countries have taken poverty reduction as the main goal of their aid. To achieve this goal, all donors and recipient countries agreed on the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness in 2005. To monitor and evaluate the progress in the targets of the Declaration, all donors and recipients got together periodically, and the 2011 conference was held in Busan, Korea. As part of this effort, this paper aims to assess the extent to which DAC donors have allocated their aid to achieve the MDGs during the latest millennium era: 2005-2009. In addition, to compare the aid allocation performance between DAC members and non-DAC emerging donors, this paper also assesses the aid allocation performance of Korea (KOICA) for the same period. The analysis of this paper shows evidence contrary to the recent literature findings that donors tended to select, as their aid recipients, those countries that warranted more aid on account of their acute development needs, and good policies and institutions. The difference between the recent literature and this paper is attributed to the different sample periods and/or the weaknesses of the estimation models and methods adopted in the literature. This paper shows why a different estimation method is adopted and why its estimation results are more reliable and convincing. This paper also shows the difference between DAC and non-DAC donors in the aid allocation performance by analyzing aid allocations by the representative aid agency of Korea (KOICA), and recommends some policy measures to be taken by both DAC and non-DAC donors.

• Proceedings of the Korean Association for Survey Research Conference
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• 2001.04a
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• pp.131-152
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• 2001

In this Era of Information and Localization, Gross Regional Domestic Product(GRDP) is recognized as indispensable informatin to establish regional economic policy. Especially, to raise Chungbuk provinece´s economical independence and to establish effectual regional economic development plans. Chungbuk province needs quarterly estimated GRDP for developing regional economic forecasting system. In this study, utilizing small area estimation is proposed to estimate the quarterly Chungbuk-GRDP provided by the Bureau of Statistics and nation´s GDP provid by the Bank of Korea exists. Moreover, from the nation´s quarterly GDP in each section of economical activity, this study has presumed the quarterly comovement, applied it to subdivide Chungbuk annual GRDP quarterly, and estimated quarterly Chungbuk-GRDP.

• Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.753-761
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• 2009

Bottled water market is growing at a rate of 10% per year in Korea. However, bottled water exhausts ground water. Korean government proposed to provide 'bottled tap water' at a low price in 2008. This study is the estimation of 'bottled tap water' market scale using binary logit model. we calculate that 'bottled tap water' market scale is from at least 92 billion won to 154 billion won by 150, 250 won per a bottled water, respectively. This paper indicates that scale of 'bottled tap water' market is a half of 'bottled water' market in 2007. This result provides that policy-makers with available and responsible information regarding the scale of 'bottled tap water' market.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.130-142
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• 2000

A model of value estimation for Technology Evaluation refers to technology and trade criterion is Presented on this study. Technology evaluation will be recognized to immediately solve the problem in government, Policy executive organs, enterprises. There is a necessity for fixing of technology evaluation institution to objectify technology evaluation method and means, to train and accumulate specialist of technology evaluation, to specialize technology evaluation organ, to secure public-trust, to spread application of technology evaluation results. And there will be become established consideration is indispensable to organize and operate Technology Exchange.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.3-26
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• 2019

This study investigates the effect of high-skilled inventor emigration rate on growth rate of the country of origin (COO). Inventor emigrants represent the human capital that can generate highly innovative work. The social network they form spurs knowledge diffusion and technology transfer back to their COOs, which in turn affects innovation and growth in their home countries. We run dynamic panel estimation for 154 countries during 1990-2011, and empirically show that a positive and statistically significant effect exists for the interaction of inventor emigration and trade. The result indicates that the direct negative impact of the brain drain can be mitigated by the positive feedback effect generated by the high-skilled inventor emigrants abroad. When coupled with an active trade policy that reinforces growth, countries can partially recoup the direct effect of the human capital loss. We stress the importance of international trade for successful technology transfer to occur, and offer insights for policies that can utilize the benefits of the rich social network of their high-skilled emigrants.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.307-308
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• 2006

The national goal of wind energy dissemination has to be determined rationally based on technically available wind resource potential. For a reliable and scientific estimation or wind resource potential, a wind map is requisite. This paper presents the national wind map of Korea established by numerical wind simulation. Prediction accuracy of the low-resolution wind map is Improved by nudging QuikSCAT data and is validated by comparing with marine buoy beacon and met-mast measurements. Therefore, quantification of national wind resource potential is now possible and is anticipating to be utilized as a core index for policy and strategy building of wind energy dissemination and technology development.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.55-88
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• 2019

Our paper contributes to existing literature by empirically investigate the trade structure and trade performance between Korea and ASEAN. Overall, trade activities between Korea and almost major ASEAN economies have significantly focused on capital goods, medium and high technology goods, while the remaining ASEAN countries' exports over Korea have been mainly primary and low technology goods. There has been a higher complementarity in between Korea's exports and ASEAN's imports compared with between ASEAN's exports and Korea's imports. Estimation results show that ASEAN's GDP and income have larger impacts than those of Korea on aggregate trade flows as well as sectoral level between two sides. Additionally, geographical conditions are critical factors impeding Korea-ASEAN trade. Meanwhile, other factors in the estimation model have mixed impacts on components of Korea-ASEAN trade structure. Finally, there is a significant room for Korea's trade expansion with ASEAN, particularly new and less developed members in future.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.27-44
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• 2000

In this study we consider a spares provisioning problem for repairable items in which a parts inventory system is incorporated. If a machine fails, a replacement part must be obtained at the parts inventory system before the failed machine enters the repair center. The inventory policy adopted at the parts inventory system is the (S, Q) policy. Operating times of the machine before failure, ordering lead times and repair times are assumed to follow a two-stage Coxian distribution. For this system, we develop an approximation method to obtain the performance measures such as steady state probabilities of the number of machines at each station and the probability that a part will wait at the parts inventory system. For the analysis of the proposed system, we model the system as a closed queueing network and analyze it using a product-form approximation method. A recursive technique as well as an iterative procedure is used to analyze the sub-network. Numerical tests show that the approximation method provides fairly good estimation of the performance measures of interest.