• 제목/요약/키워드: the estimation of policy

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우즈베키스탄 시장의 환경 평가와 경제교류 전략의 방향성 분석 (An estimation on the market environment of Uzbekistan and the strategic direction for the Economic Cooperation)

  • 김중관
    • 통상정보연구
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    • 제12권3호
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    • pp.101-121
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    • 2010
  • This paper focuses on establishing strategies to ensure entry to the Uzbekistan in the process of developing business opportunities and managing industry. The study provides initiatives to maintain industrial competitiveness as well as policy guidance for entry and management on the Uzbekistan's industry. The most prominent feature of Uzbekistan's industrial development policy during the past decade is that it has undertaken an integrated policy approach to development which brought about sustainable economic development. In this development process, trade policy, manpower development policy, and technology policy were well coordinated and complementary to industrial policy in the Uzbekistan. This paper attempts to analyze Uzbekistan's custom and system in terms of broad industrial policy concept through resource and economic environment of Uzbekistan and to derive some lessons of market evaluation and policy implication for Korean government and industrial line.

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Analysis of residential natural gas consumption distribution function in Korea - a mixture model

  • Kim, Ho-Young;Lim, Seul-Ye;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • 에너지공학
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    • 제23권3호
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    • pp.36-41
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    • 2014
  • The world's overall need for natural gas (NG) has been growing up fast, especially in the residential sector. The better the estimation of residential NG consumption (RNGC) distribution, the better decision-making for a residential NG policy such as pricing, demand estimation, management options and so on. Approximating the distribution of RNGC is complicated by zero observations in the sample. To deal with the zero observations by allowing a point mass at zero, a mixture model of RNGC distributions is proposed and applied. The RNGC distribution is specified as a mixture of two distributions, one with a point mass at zero and the other with full support on the positive half of the real line. The model is empirically verified for household RNGC survey data collected in Korea. The mixture model can easily capture the common bimodality feature of the RNGC distribution. In addition, when covariates were added to the model, it was found that the probability that a household has non-expenditure significantly varies with some variables. Finally, the goodness-of-fit test suggests that the data are well represented by the mixture model.

데이터기반 의사결정을 위한 정책 및 사업 속성 분류체계 개발 연구 (A Study on Development of Policy Attributes Taxonomy for Data-based Decision Making)

  • 김사랑
    • 한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구
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    • 제29권3호
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    • pp.1-34
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    • 2020
  • Purpose Due to the complexity of policy environment in modern society, it is accepted as common basics of policy design to mix up a variety of policy instruments aiming the multiple functions. However, under the current situation of written-down policy specification, not only the public officers but also the policy researchers cannot easily grasp such frameworks as policy portfolio. The purpose of this study is to develop "Policy Attributes Taxonomy" identifying and classifying the public programs to help making decisions for allocative efficiency with effectiveness-based information. Design/methodology/approach To figure out the main scheme and classification criteria of Policy Attributes Taxonomy which represents characteristics of public policies, previous theories and researches on policy components were explored. In addition, to test taxonomic feasibility of certain information system, a set of "Feasibility Standards" was drawn from "requirements for well-organized criteria" of eminent taxonomy literatures. Finally, current government classification system in the area of social service was tested to visualize the application of Taxonomy and Standards. Findings Program Taxonomy Schemes were set including "policy goals", "policy targets", "policy tools", "logical relation" and "delivery system". Each program and project could be condensed into these attributes, making their design more easily distinguishable. Policy portfolio could be readily made out by extracting certain characteristics according to this scheme. Moreover, this taxonomy could be used for rearrangement of present "Program Budget System" or estimation of "Basic Income".

팔당호 수질관리 정책의 효과 분석 (Estimation of the Effect of Water Quality Management Policy in Paldang Lake)

  • 최정현;하주현;박석순
    • 대한환경공학회지
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    • 제30권12호
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    • pp.1225-1230
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    • 2008
  • 이 논문에서는 팔당호에 행해진 수질관리 정책의 효과를 분석하기 위하여 계절 맨-켄달 경향분석법(Seasonal Mann-Kendall Trend Analysis)을 사용한 새로운 접근법으로 팔당호로 유입되는 주요 지류중 하나인 경안천의 수질을 정책 전과 후로 나누어 비교 분석하였다. 1992년부터 2005년까지 월별로 측정된 BOD, COD, 총인 및 총질소의 자료들을 이용하여 1998년 한강특별대책 시행 전과 후의 켄달 기울기(Kendall slope)를 비교하였고, 그 결과 한강특별대책이 경안천 하류의 수질 개선에는 효과가 있었으나 상류의 수질 개선에는 큰 효과를 거두지 못하였음을 밝혀냈다. 이러한 결과는 이전에 행해진 경안천 수질 관련 연구들의 결과와 잘 일치하는 것으로 보아, 이 연구에서 사용된 수질의 장기 경향 분석을 통한 정책의 효과를 판단하는 접근법은 앞으로 유용하게 사용되어 질 수 있으리라 판단된다.

Comparison of Benefit Estimation Models in Cost-Benefit Analysis: A Case of Chronic Hypertension Management Programs

  • Lim, Ji-Young;Kim, Mi-Ja;Park, Chang-Gi;Kim, Jung-Yun
    • 대한간호학회지
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    • 제41권6호
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    • pp.750-757
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: Cost-benefit analysis is one of the most commonly used economic evaluation methods, which helps to inform the economic value of a program to decision makers. However, the selection of a correct benefit estimation method remains critical for accurate cost-benefit analysis. This paper compared benefit estimations among three different benefit estimation models. Methods: Data from community-based chronic hypertension management programs in a city in South Korea were used. Three different benefit estimation methods were compared. The first was a standard deterministic estimation model; second, a repeated-measures deterministic estimation model; and third, a transitional probability estimation model. Results: The estimated net benefit of the three different methods were $1,273.01, $-3,749.42, and $-5,122.55 respectively. Conclusion: The transitional probability estimation model showed the most correct and realistic benefit estimation, as it traced possible paths of changing status between time points and it accounted for both positive and negative benefits.

냉난방도일을 이용한 기준부하추정 방법에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Baseline Load Estimation Method using Heating Degree Days and Cooling Degree Days Adjustment)

  • 위영민
    • 전기학회논문지
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    • 제66권5호
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    • pp.745-749
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    • 2017
  • Climate change and energy security are major factors for future national energy policy. To resolve these issues, many countries are focusing on creating new growth industries and energy services such as smartgrid, renewable energy, microgrid, energy management system, and peer to peer energy trading. The financial and economic evaluation of new energy services basically requires energy savings estimation technologies. This paper presents the baseline load estimation method, which is used to calculate energy savings resulted from participating in the new energy program, using moving average model with heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) adjustment. To demonstrate the improvement of baseline load estimation accuracy, the proposed method is tested. The results of case studies are presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed baseline load estimation method.

통행분포 예측모형별 예측 정확도(精確度)에 관한 연구: 대구시 O-D표를 대상으로 (A Study on Trip Distribution Estimation Model's Accuracy: Using Daegu City O-D Tables)

  • 유영근;우용한
    • 대한교통학회지
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    • 제30권5호
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    • pp.43-59
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    • 2012
  • 통행분포 예측시 목표년도가 단기일 경우에는 성장인자모형의 예측 정확도가 높고, 장기 목표년도의 경우에는 중력모형의 예측 정확도가 높은 것으로 인식되어 오고 있다. 이와 같은 예측모형 적용경향에 대한 검정을 위해 본 연구에서는 대구시 3개 년도(1988년, 1992년, 2004년)의 O-D표를 이용하여 통행분포 예측모형들의 정확도를 비교하였다. 비교는 분석 죤이 대죤인 경우와 중죤인 경우에서 예측모형별로 단기 목표년도의 정확도와 장기 목표년도 정확도를 구분하여 행하였다. 비교결과, 통행분포 예측모형의 통상적인 인식과 다른 결과가 있을 수 있다는 것이 규명되었다.

우리나라 가계의 자녀양육 비용과 추정방법 (An Estimation of the Cost of Children in Korea)

  • 이성림
    • 대한가정학회지
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    • 제45권2호
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    • pp.77-90
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    • 2007
  • Using 2004 Household Income & Expenditure Survey, this study investigated difference in consumption pattern among the households with the different number of children, and estimated the monetary cost of rearing children. The findings were as following. First, the major consumption categories for raising children included the expenditures for education, food materials, utility, health, and communication. Second, the potential consumption needs for clothing & foot ware and culture & entertainment were not fully satisfied for the households with children compared to the households without children. Third, in the households with one child, the level of consumption was about two thirds of that in the households without children. It was slightly above half in the households with two children. Lower consumption level of the households with children was mainly due to the burden of the educational expenditure. Forth, the average monthly cost of raising children was estimated by 680 thousands Won for one child, and 104 thousand Won for two children. Lastly, the implications for the fertility policy and the methods for the estimation of the child cost were suggested based on the results.