• Title/Summary/Keyword: the discriminant function model

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A case of corporate failure prediction

  • Shin, Kyung-Shik;Jo, Hongkyu;Han, Ingoo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 1996.10a
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    • pp.199-202
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    • 1996
  • Although numerous studies demonstrate that one technique outperforms the others for a given data set, there is often no way to tell a priori which of these techniques will be most effective to solve a specific problem. Alternatively, it has been suggested that a better approach to classification problem might be to integrate several different forecasting techniques by combining their results. The issues of interest are how to integrate different modeling techniques to increase the prediction performance. This paper proposes the post-model integration method, which means integration is performed after individual techniques produce their own outputs, by finding the best combination of the results of each method. To get the optimal or near optimal combination of different prediction techniques. Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are applied, which are particularly suitable for multi-parameter optimization problems with an objective function subject to numerous hard and soft constraints. This study applied three individual classification techniques (Discriminant analysis, Logit and Neural Networks) as base models to the corporate failure prediction context. Results of composite prediction were compared to the individual models. Preliminary results suggests that the use of integrated methods will offer improved performance in business classification problems.

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Seabed Sediment Feature Extraction Algorithm using Attenuation Coefficient Variation According to Frequency (주파수에 따른 감쇠계수 변화량을 이용한 해저 퇴적물 특징 추출 알고리즘)

  • Lee, Kibae;Kim, Juho;Lee, Chong Hyun;Bae, Jinho;Lee, Jaeil;Cho, Jung Hong
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.111-120
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, we propose novel feature extraction algorithm for classification of seabed sediment. In previous researches, acoustic reflection coefficient has been used to classify seabed sediments, which is constant in terms of frequency. However, attenuation of seabed sediment is a function of frequency and is highly influenced by sediment types in general. Hence, we developed a feature vector by using attenuation variation with respect to frequency. The attenuation variation is obtained by using reflected signal from the second sediment layer, which is generated by broadband chirp. The proposed feature vector has advantage in number of dimensions to classify the seabed sediment over the classical scalar feature (reflection coefficient). To compare the proposed feature with the classical scalar feature, dimension of proposed feature vector is reduced by using linear discriminant analysis (LDA). Synthesised acoustic amplitudes reflected by seabed sediments are generated by using Biot model and the performance of proposed feature is evaluated by using Fisher scoring and classification accuracy computed by maximum likelihood decision (MLD). As a result, the proposed feature shows higher discrimination performance and more robustness against measurement errors than that of classical feature.

An Empirical Study on Financial Characteristics of KOSDAQ Venture Companies (코스닥시장 우량벤처기업 판별모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hong-Kee;Oh, Sung-Bae
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.37-64
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is verifying which financial property of a venture company listed in KOSDAQ is a primary factor to determine Highly Successful company or Less Successful one. For sampling, I classified 405 venture companies, whose averages for 2005 of 2 standards are In the 30% high/low rank, as Highly Successful/Less Successful companies subject to the higher Operating Income to Total Assets and Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), the Highly Successful company. And I verified which variable is most important one to distinguish between Highly Successful companies and Less Successful ones among 24 financial ratios selected through preceding studies. For the analysis, I firstly extracted analogous variables by Stepwise Method and secondly carried out Multi variate Discriminant Analysis. The result mainly shows variables related to returns and stability similar to preceding studies. Especially, Operating Income to Total Assets reveals most reliable variable distinguishing between Highly Successful company and Less Successful one, whereas Current Ratio does not. When reliability of function formula of variables were compared with Operating Income to Total Assets standard and ROIC standard, there was almost no difference.

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3-D Building Reconstruction from Standard IKONOS Stereo Products in Dense Urban Areas (IKONOS 컬러 입체영상을 이용한 대규모 도심지역의 3차원 건물복원)

  • Lee, Suk Kun;Park, Chung Hwan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.3D
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    • pp.535-540
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    • 2006
  • This paper presented an effective strategy to extract the buildings and to reconstruct 3-D buildings using high-resolution multispectral stereo satellite images. Proposed scheme contained three major steps: building enhancement and segmentation using both BDT (Background Discriminant Transformation) and ISODATA algorithm, conjugate building identification using the object matching with Hausdorff distance and color indexing, and 3-D building reconstruction using photogrammetric techniques. IKONOS multispectral stereo images were used to evaluate the scheme. As a result, the BDT technique was verified as an effective tool for enhancing building areas since BDT suppressed the dominance of background to enhance the building as a non-background. In building recognition, color information itself was not enough to identify the conjugate building pairs since most buildings are composed of similar materials such as concrete. When both Hausdorff distance for edge information and color indexing for color information were combined, most segmented buildings in the stereo images were correctly identified. Finally, 3-D building models were successfully generated using the space intersection by the forward RFM (Rational Function Model).

A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Two Class Approximation of TLB (Tomato Late Blight) Activity Data (토마토 역병균 항균 활성 데이터의 이분번 근사모델링)

  • Hahn, Hoh-Gyu;M.D., Ashek Ali;Cho, Seung-Joo
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.140-145
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    • 2005
  • Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) assumes the relatedness between physical property and biological activity. However, activity data measured at single concentration such as percent activity have not been used extensively for modeling purpose. This probably comes from the fact that these values are qualitative instead of quantitative. To utilize percent activity data for molecular modeling, we classified the whole data into two classes. One class represents the active while the other signifies the inactive. The percent activity data of ${\beta}$-Ketoacetoanilides measured for TLB (Tomato Late Blight) were investigated. CoMFA (Comparative Molecular Field Analysis) was used as a discriminant function. Using CoMFA provides 3D (three dimensional) information, which is crucial for chemical insight. It can also serve as a predictive model. The resultant model classified the given data correctly (98%). When LOO (leave-one-out) crossvalidation procedure was applied, the classification accuracy was 69%. Therefore two class approximation of percent activity data with CoMFA can be utilized to understand the relationship between chemical structure and biological activity and design subsequent chemical analogs.

Improvement effect of cooked soybeans on HFD-deteriorated large intestinal health in rat model (쥐 모델에서 고지방사료로 악화된 대장 건강에 대한 콩의 개선 효과)

  • Choi, Jae Ho;Shin, Taekyun;Ryu, Myeong Seon;Yang, Hee-Jong;Jeong, Do-Youn;Unno, Tatsuya
    • Journal of Applied Biological Chemistry
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    • v.64 no.4
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    • pp.383-389
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    • 2021
  • Obesity is associated with impaired intestinal epithelial barrier function, which contribute to host systemic inflammation and metabolic dysfunction. Korean traditional foods, fiber-rich bean products, have been various biological activities in anti-inflammatory responses, but has not reported the large intestinal health. In this study, we investigated the intestinal health promoting effect of cooked soybeans (CSB) on high fat diet (HFD)-induced obesity model. SD rat were fed either a HFD or HFD supplemented with 10.6% CSB (HFD+CSB) for animal experimental period. CSB treatment significantly decreased the HFD-induced weights of body and fat. Also, CSB treatment improved HFD-reduced tight junction components (ZO-1, Claudin-1, and Occludin-1) mRNA expression in large intestine tissue. Additionally, histopathological evaluation showed that CSB treatment attenuated the HFD-increased inflammatory cells infiltration and epithelial damages in large intestine tissue. At the genus level, effects of CSB supplement not yet clear, while dietary effects showed differential abundance of several genera including Lactobacillus, Duncaniella, and Alloprevotella. NMDS analysis showed significant microbial shifts by HFD, while CSB did not shift gut microbiota. CSB increased the abundance of the genera Anaerotignum, Enterococcus, Clostridium sensu stricto, and Escherichia/Shigella by linear discriminant analysis effect size analysis, while reduced the abundance of Longicatena and Ligilactobacillus. These findings indicate that CSB supplement improves HFD-deteriorated large intestinal health by the amelioration of tight junction component, while CSB did not shift gut microbiotas.

Big Five Personality in Discriminating the Groups by the Level of Social Sims (심리학적 도구 '5요인 성격 특성'에 의한 소셜 게임 연구: <심즈 소셜> 게임의 분석사례를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Dong-Yeop
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.29
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    • pp.129-149
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the clustering and Big Five Personality domains in discriminating groups by level of school-related adjustment, as experienced by Social Sims game users. Social Games are based on web that has simple rules to play in fictional time and space background. This paper is to analyze the relationships between social networks and user behaviors through the social games . In general, characteristics of social games are simple, fun and easy to play, popular to the public, and based on personal connections in reality. These features of social games make themselves different from video games with one player or MMORPG with many unspecific players. Especially Social Game show a noticeable characteristic related to social learning. The object of this research is to provide a possibility that game that its social perspective can be strengthened in social game environment and analyze whether it actually influences on problem solving of real life problems, therefore suggesting its direction of alternative play means and positive simulation game. Data was collected by administering 4 questionnaires (the short version of BFI, Satisfaction with life, Career Decision-.Making Self-.Efficacy, Depression) to the participants who were 20 people in Seoul and Daejeon. For the purposes of the data analysis, both Stepwise Discriminant analysis and Cluster analysis was employed. Neuroticism, Openness, Conscientiousness within the Big Five Personality domains were seen to be significant variables when it came to discriminating the groups. These findings indicated that the short version of the BFI may be useful in understanding for game user behaviors When it comes to cultural research, digital game takes up a significant role. We can see that from the fact that game, which has only been considered as a leisure activity or commercial means, is being actively research for its methodological, social role and function. Among digital game's several meanings, one of the most noticeable ones is the research on its critical, social participating function. According to Jame Paul gee, the most important merit of game is 'projected identity'. This means that experiences from various perspectives is possible.[1] In his recent autobiography , he described gamer as an active problem solver. In addition, Gonzalo Francesca also suggested an alternative game developing method through 'game that conveys critical messages by strengthening critical reasons'. [2] They all provided evidences showing game can be a strong academic tool. Not only does a genre called social game exist in the field of media and Social Network Game, but there are also some efforts to positively evaluate its value Through these kinds of researches, we can study how game can give positive influence along with the change in its general perception, which would eventually lead to spreading healthy game culture and enabling fresh life experience. This would better bring out the educative side of the game and become a social communicative tool. The object of this game is to provide a possibility that the social aspect can be strengthened within the game environment and analyze whether it actually influences the problem solving of real life problems. Therefore suggesting it's direction of alternative play means positive game simulation.

The Effect of Corporate Association on the Perceived Risk of the Product (소비자의 제품 지각 위험에 대한 기업연상과 효과: 지식과 관여의 조절적 역활을 중심으로)

  • Cho, Hyun-Chul;Kang, Suk-Hou;Kim, Jin-Yong
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2008
  • Brown and Dacin (1997) have investigated the relationship between corporate associations and product evaluations. Their study focused on the effects of associations with a company's corporate ability (CA) and its corporate social responsibility (CSR) on consumers' product evaluations. Their study has found that both of CA and CSR influenced product evaluation but CA association has a stronger effect than CSR associations. Brown and Dacin (1997) have, however, claimed that there are few researches on how corporate association impacts product responses. Accordingly, some of researchers have found the variables to moderate or to mediate the relationship between the corporate association and the product responses. In particular, there has been existed a few of studies that tested the influence of the reputation on the product-relevant perceived risk, but the effects of two types of the corporate association on the product-relevant perceived risk were not identified so far. The primary goal of this article is to identify and empirically examine some variables to moderate the effects of CA association and CSR association on the perceived risk of the product. In this articles, we take the concept of the corporate associations that Brown and Dacin (1997) had proposed. CA association is those association related to the company's expertise in producing and delivering its outputs and CSR association reflected the organization's status and activities with respect to its perceived societal obligations. Also, this study defines the risk, which is the uncertainty or loss of the product and corporate that consumers have taken in a particular purchase decision or after having purchased. The risk is classified into product-relevant performance risk and financial risk. Performance risk is the possibility or the consequence of a product not functioning at some expected level and financial risk is the monetary loss one perceives to be incurring if a product does not function at some expected level. In relation to consumer's knowledge, expert consumers have much of the experiences or knowledge of the product in consumer position and novice consumers does not. The model tested in this article are shown in Figure 1. The model indicates that both of CA association and CSR association influence on performance risk and financial risk. In addition, the effects of CA and CSR are moderated by product category knowledge (product knowledge) and product category involvement (product involvement). In this study, the relationships between the corporate association and product-relevant perceived risk are hypothesized as the following form. For example, Hypothesis 1a($H_{1a}$) is represented that CA association has a positive influence on the performance risk of consumer. Also, the hypotheses that identified some variables to moderate the effects of two types of corporate association on the perceived risk of the product are laid down. One of the hypotheses of the interaction effect is Hypothesis 3a($H_{3a}$), it is described that consumer's knowledges of the product moderates the negative relationship between CA association and product-relevant performance risk. A field experiment was conducted in order to examine our model. The company tested was not real but imagined to meet the internal validity. Water purifiers were used for our study. Four scenarios have been developed and described as the imaginary company: Type A with both of superior CA and CSR, Type B with superior CSR and inferior CA, Type C with superior CA and inferior CSR, and Type D with both inferior of CA and CSR. The respondents of this study were classified into four groups. One type of four scenarios (Type A, B, C, or D) in its questionnaire was given to the respondent who filled out questions. Data were collected by means of a self-administered questionnaire to the respondents, chosen in convenience. A total of 300 respondents filled out the questionnaire but 207 were used for further analysis. Table 1 indicates that the scales in this study are reliable because the range of coefficients of Cronbach's $\alpha$ are from 0.85 to 0.92. The composite reliability is in the range of 0,85 to 0,92 and average variance extracted is in 0.72-0.98 range that is higher than the base level of 0.6. As shown in Table 2, the values for CFI, NNFI, root-mean-square error approximation (RMSEA), and standardized root-mean-square residual (SRMR) are acceptably close to the standards suggested by Hu and Bentler (1999):.95 for CFI and NNFI,.06 for RMSEA, and.08 for SRMR. We also tested discriminant validity provided by Fornell and Larcker (1981). As shown in Table 2, we found strong evidence for discriminant validity between each possible pair of latent constructs in all samples. Given that these batteries of overall goodness-of-fit indices were accurate and that the model was developed on theoretical bases, and given the high level of consistency across samples, this enables us to proceed the previously defined scales. We used the moderated hierarchical regression analysis to test the influence of the corporate association(CA and CSR associations) on product-relevant perceived risk(performance and financial risks) and to identify the variables moderating the relationship between the corporate association and product-relevant performance risk. In this study, dependent variables are performance and financial risk. CA and CSR associations are described the independent variables. The moderating variables are product category knowledge and product category involvement. The results are, as expected, found that CA association has statistically a significant influence on the perceived risk of the product, but CSR association does not. Product category knowledge and involvement moderate the relationship between the CA association and the perceived risk of the product. However, the effect of CSR association on the perceived risk of the product is not moderated by the consumers' knowledge and involvement. For this result, it is necessary for a corporate to inform its customers CA association more than CSR association so that they could be felt to be the reduction of the perceived risk. The important theoretical contribution of this research is the meanings that two types of corporate association that Brown and Dacin(1997), and Brown(1998) have proposed replicated the difference of the effects on product evaluation. According to Hunter(2001), it was an important affair to accomplish the validity of a particular study and we had to take about ten studies to deduce a strict study. Next, there is the contribution of the this study to find that the effects of corporate association on the perceived risk of the product are varied by the moderator variables. In particular, the moderating effect of knowledge on the relationship between corporate association and product-relevant perceived risk has not been tested in Korea. In the managerial implications of this research, we suggest the necessity to stress the ability that corporate manufactures the product well(CA association) than the accomplishment of corporate's social obligation(CSR association). This study suffers from various limitations that imply future research directions. The moderating effects of product category knowledge and involvement on the relationship between corporate association and perceived risk need to be replicated. Next, future research could explore whether the mediated effects of the perceived risk has the relationship between corporate association and consumer's product purchase. In addition, to ensure the external validity of the study will be needed to use realistic company, not artificial.

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Environmentally Associated Spatial Distribution of a Macrozoobenthic Community in the Continental Shelf off the Southern Area of the East Sea, Korea (한국 동해 남부해역 대륙붕에 서식하는 대형저서동물군집 공간분포를 결정하는 환경요인)

  • Lee, Jung-Ho;Lee, Jung-Suk;Park, Young-Gyu;Kang, Seong-Gil;Choi, Tae Seob;Gim, Byeong-Mo;Ryu, Jongseong
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.66-75
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    • 2014
  • This study aims to understand environmental factors that determine spatial distribution of macrozoobenthic community in the southern area (ca 100-500 m depth) of East Sea, Korea, known as a candidate site for carbon storage under the seabed. From sixteen locations sampled in the summer of 2012, a total of 158 species were identified, showing density of $843indiv/m^2$ and biomass of $26.2g\;WW/m^2$, with increasing faunal density towards biologically higher diverse locations. Principal component analysis showed that a total of 33 environmental parameters were reduced to three principal components (PC), indicating sediment, bottom water, and depth, respectively. As sand content was increasing, number of species increased but biomass decreased. Six dominant species including two bivalve species favored high concentrations of ${\Omega}$ aragonite and ${\Omega}$ calcite, indicating that the corresponding species can be severely damaged by ocean acidification or $CO_2$ effluent. Cluaster analysis based on more than 1% density dominant species classified the entire study area into four faunal assemblage (location groups), which were delineated by characteristic species, including (A) Ampelisca miharaensis, (B) Edwardsioides japonica, (C) Maldane cristata, (D) Spiophanes kroeyeri, and clearly separated in terms of geography, bottom water and sediment environment. Overall, a discriminant function model was developed to predict four faunal assemblages from five simply-measured environmental variables (depth, sand content in sediment, temperature, salinity and pH in bottom water) with 100% accuracy, implying that benthic faunal assemablages are closed linked to certain combinations of abiotic factors.