Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.
Out of a total of 58 species of helminthic and protozoan parasitic infections in Korea, so far 38 species were reported as intestinal parasites of man. Quite a few species of the intestinal parasitic infections have long been prevalent throughout the country and this has been a significant public health problem. In this paper, current status and transition of the intestinal parasitic infections in the past years were presented. Chronological reviewing of data show background and prospects of change in the prevalence of infections. In the national prevalence survey on parasitic infections conducted once every five years since 1971, stool examinations were done by both cellophane thick smear and brine flotation techniques. Every egg positive case of Ascaris lumbricoides and Clonorchis sinensis was further examined by Stoll's dilution egg counting technique. In 1981, perianal swab using adhesive cellulose tape was added for Enterobius infection. For protozoan cyst examination conducted by province and city in '81, fecal specimens were fixed in SAF solution and examined by the formalin-ether concentration technique. High prevalence of parasitic infection in ana before the 1960s can be easily understood from the data given by the Ministry of Health and Social Affairs in 1967. From a parasite control point of view, the 1960s was the preparatory period particularly for control of soil-transmitted helminthiasis. Several organizations which have contributed to parasite control were founded in this period and the prevention law of parasitic infections was passed in '66. In the '70s, overall prevalence rates of the common intestinal parasitic infections, which were highly prevalent in the past were turned into reduction phase for the first time. The '80s can be said to be an active control period of parasitic infections. Intestinal helminths According to the reports of the national prevalence survey on parasitic infections, the prevalence of helminthic infections was 84.3%(number of person examined:24,887) in '71, 63.2%(27,178) in '76, and 41.1%(35,018) in '81. By area, the prevalence rate in '81 was 35.1%(20,569) in urban areas and 49.6%(14,447) in rural areas. Intestinal nematodes Ascaris lumbricoides The prevalence of Ascaris infection has decreased significantly in recent years. Among students, the prevalence was 55.4%, in '69 and decreased to 4.7% in '83. In the national prevalence surveys, the prevalence decreased to 13.0% in '81 from 54.9% in '71. By area, the prevalence decreased to 8.5% in '81 from 46.4% in '71 in urban area and 19.4% in '81 from 59.6% in '71 in rural area. By age, the prevalence has become in recent years relatively even in all age groups, although higher prevalence used to be seen in young age groups of around 10 years old, particulary in the highly prevalent rural areas. By sex, the prevalence was higher in the female than in the male. Unfertilized egg positive rates among the ascariasis cases increased gradually up to 55.4% on the average in '81. The intensity of the infection was also significantly decreased. Trichuris trichiura Trichuris infection had also decreased to 23.4% in '81 from 65.4% in '71. By area, the decreasing tendency of the prevalence became faster in urban areas than in the rural areas. The prevalence in urban and rural areas in '71 was 69.7%, and 63.1% respectively and decreased to 19.5% and 29.0% respectively in '81. By age, the prevalence reached a peak at the 10-14 age group and showed relatively even distribution throughout all age groups. By sex, the prevalence was close in young age groups, but in the 30s or over age group, especially in rural area, the prevalence was significantly higher in the female than in the male. The prevalence has much fluctuated depending in the area. The prevalence in rural areas surveyed in the '80s shows a range between 20.9% and 73.7% by locality. It is anticipated that the prevalence of Trichuris infection will drop more rapidly, when mass treatment is conducted. Hookworms Hookworm infection by mostly Ancylostoma duodenale and a few by Necator americanus has decreased to a negligible levels in recent years. In the national prevalence surveys, the prevalence was 10.7% in '71, 2.2% in '76, and 0.5% in '81. The prevalence was higher in rural areas than in urban areas. Wide application of multi-specific anthelminthics in the ascariasis control programmes conducted in the past decade appear to have been effective against hookworm infection. Trichostrongylus orientalis As in the case with hookworm infection, the prevalence of Trichostrongylus infection has reached a negligible levels. In the national prevalence surveys, the prevalence was 7.7% in '71, 1.0% in '76 and 0.2% in '81. Enterobius vermicularis In the national prevalence survey in '81, the egg positive rate was 12.0%. Higher prevalence is expected when examined repeatedly. The prevalence rate was 10.3% in urban area and 14.6% in rural area. In recent surveys conducted in rural areas among schoolchildren, the prevalence was 32.4% in Gimhae Gun in '82 and 64.1% in Yeongyang Gun in '83. By age, the egg positive rate was higher in young age groups of around 10 and sharply decreased in age groups of around 20 and then somewhat increased again in middle age groups. By sex, the prevalence was higher in the female than in the male. Strongyloides stercoralis Strongyloides stercoralis infection has rarely been found in Korea. Three cases were reported in 1914. And 0.1-0.5% were found infected out of 2,642 persons examined at the prisoner-of-war camp on Geojedo in 1956. One case was reported in '54 and '82, respectively. Anisakis spp. No systematic survey has been conducted for anisakiasis In Korea. So far, only several cases have been found 1 case in Seoul in '71, 5 cases in Busan in '81 and 1 case in Busan in '84. Intestinal trematodes Metagonimus yokogawai In the national prevalence survey conducted in 1981, the egg positive rate was 1.24% on the average. High endemic areas are located in the southwestern part of Korea. The prevalence in Hadong Gun was 29.1% on the average in '79. In a survey conducted in 76, the prevalence was 44.0% in Gwangyang, 55.0% in Gogseung and 29.0% in Gurye. The infection is closely correlated with raw sweetfish consumption in these areas. Other intestinal trematodes A human case of Heterophyes heterophyes was reported in 1914. Several species were reported in the '80s : 17 cases of Fibricola seoulensis, 9 cases of Pygidiopsis summa, 8 cases of Heterophyes heterophyes nocens, 1case of Heterophyopsis continua, 2 cases of Stellantchasmus falcatus, 1 case of Stictodora sp., 1 case of Echinostoma hortense, and 4 cases of Echinochasmus japonicus. As the intermediate hosts, snakes and frogs play a role for F.seoulensis and fish for the rest of the species. Intestinal cestodes Taenia saginata and T. solium Egg positive rates in the national prevalence survey were 0.7% in '76 and 1.1% in '81. The prevalence in '81 was 0.6% in urban area and 1.8% in rural area. The proglottid positive rate in Jeju Do was 19.2% on the average. On Udo, Jeju Do in 1983, the egg positive rate among the inhabitants was 2.9%. Hymenolepis nana In the national prevalence survey, egg positive rates were 0.6% in '76 and 0.4% in '81. No difference was seen in the prevalence by area and sex. Hymenolepis diminuta Infected cases were reported : 3 in '64 and I in '66. Egg positive rate in '81 was 0.01% in the national prevalence survey. Diphylobothrium latum So far, about 30 cases have been reported. The cases have been reported more frequently in recent surveys. Mesocestoides sp. A case was reported from a hospitalized patient in Seoul in '67. Spirometra erinacei Two cases were reported in '84 following reidentification of the adult worms collected in '74. Intestinal protozoa Out of a total of 23 species of human protozoan infections in Korea, 13 species were reported as intestinal protozoa : Entamoeba histolytica, E coli, Endolimax nana, Iodamoeba b
Based on the questionnaires sent to 270 nurses of public health centers in kyungnam during the period of March 19 to April 11 in 1992, this study was written for the of finding out the grade of satisfaction, obstacles in carrying out duties concerned with nursing services and the change of nurses role needed according to the change of the local public health administration. The first-ranking tasks carried by nurses of public health center are believed to have been family planning activities before the 1970's, nursing services during the 1970's, mother-child health activities during the 1980's, and nursing services during the period of 1990 to 1992. As far as the priority order of all the family planning activities is concerned, the counseling of the insertion of intrauterine contraceptive device, the use of oral pill or the distribution of condom was placed emphasis on before 1970, and publicity activities of family planning after that time. The first priority order of mother-child health activities has been put on the registration of pregnant women since 1970, with prenatal examination and vaccination ranking next to it. The priority order for activities against tuberculosis was laid on finding out and registration of new T.B. patients every year, with patients' control, and medication or injection ranking next to it. As for the priority order of nursing services, traveling medical examination and treatment ranked the first-stressed activity before 1970, with medication and injection ranking next to it. The first priority order management activity of communicable diseases was put on vaccination before 1970, with medication and injection. ranking next. And consultation and education ranked second to it during 1990 to 1992. As for the health services of the aged, traveling examination and treatment ranked the order, with the assistance of medical examination ranking next to it. As far as troubles and obstacles shown in case of family planning, the rate of residents' lack understanding was 28.8%, that of lacking budget 13.6%, and the imperfection of public health administration system 11.9%. In the case of tuberculosis control, residents' lacking understanding was 32.5%, the deficiency of public health administration system 18.2%, over-duty(shortage of hands) 15.6%, and the insufficiency skill and know-how 13.0%. In the case of nursing services, the deficiency of public health administration system was 18.2%, each over-duty(the shortage of hands) and the shortage of facilities and equipment 15.6% respective, and residents' lacking understanding 13.0%. The rate of dissatisfaction with the chance or possibility of promotion for his or her career or capability was shown to be 49.2%, and 65.9% of the health nurses expressed their complaints of the deficiency of the chance of the promotion to a professional or expert. when the public health nurses were asked in the questionably whether they were satisfied or not with current state of equipment and facilities needed for public health service, 49.6% of them answered in the negative. The grade of the satisfaction with the current individual position was shown to be low as much as the status of his or her position was now. 37.6% of those asked in the research answered to have the readiness to switch jobs for the reasons of dissatisfaction and so on with lacking promotion chance as well as bad working condition. Significant correlation between the grade of job satisfaction and the current status of the po as found to be in this research, which showed that the lower the status of position was, the lower the grade of job satisfaction was. But little correlation between the grade of job satisfaction and his or her schooling and career was found. In order to carry out primary health care successfully, it can be said that more education and publicity activities to make public health nurses and residents see it in a new light are requested. In addition to it, it is suggested that the improvement of promotion system for public health nurses and the enlargement of job province should also be taken in consideration of the high dissatisfaction with and complaints of the chance of promotion and the system of position. In order words, it is important that considerations for system improvement enough to make nursing services pleasant and satisfactory should be taken into.
A survey on biliary atresia was made among 26 members of the Korean Association of Pediatric Surgeons. The members were required to complete a questionnaire and a case registration form for each patient during the twentyone-year period of 1980-2000. Three hundred and eighty patients were registered from 18 institutions. The average number of patients per surgeon was one to two every year. The male to female ratio was 1:1.3. The age of patients on diagnosis with biliary atresia was on average
1. Introduction Today Internet is recognized as an important way for the transaction of products and services. According to the data surveyed by the National Statistical Office, the on-line transaction in 2007 for a year, 15.7656 trillion, shows a 17.1%(2.3060 trillion won) increase over last year, of these, the amount of B2C has been increased 12.0%(10.2258 trillion won). Like this, because the entry barrier of on-line market of Korea is low, many retailers could easily enter into the market. So the bigger its scale is, but on the other hand, the tougher its competition is. Particularly due to the Internet and innovation of IT, the existing market has been changed into the perfect competitive market(Srinivasan, Rolph & Kishore, 2002). In the early years of on-line business, they think that the main reason for success is a moderate price, they are awakened to its importance of on-line service quality with tough competition. If it's not sure whether customers can be provided with what they want, they can use the Web sites, perhaps they can trust their products that had been already bought or not, they have a doubt its viability(Parasuraman, Zeithaml & Malhotra, 2005). Customers can directly reserve and issue their air tickets irrespective of place and time at the Web sites of travel agencies or airlines, but its empirical studies about these Web sites for reserving and issuing air tickets are insufficient. Therefore this study goes on for following specific objects. First object is to measure service quality and service recovery of Web sites for reserving and issuing air tickets. Second is to look into whether above on-line service quality and on-line service recovery have an impact on overall service quality. Third is to seek for the relation with overall service quality and customer satisfaction, then this customer satisfaction and loyalty intention. 2. Theoretical Background 2.1 On-line Service Quality Barnes & Vidgen(2000; 2001a; 2001b; 2002) had invented the tool to measure Web sites' quality four times(called WebQual). The WebQual 1.0, Step one invented a measuring item for information quality based on QFD, and this had been verified by students of UK business school. The Web Qual 2.0, Step two invented for interaction quality, and had been judged by customers of on-line bookshop. The WebQual 3.0, Step three invented by consolidating the WebQual 1.0 for information quality and the WebQual2.0 for interactionquality. It includes 3-quality-dimension, information quality, interaction quality, site design, and had been assessed and confirmed by auction sites(e-bay, Amazon, QXL). Furtheron, through the former empirical studies, the authors changed sites quality into usability by judging that usability is a concept how customers interact with or perceive Web sites and It is used widely for accessing Web sites. By this process, WebQual 4.0 was invented, and is consist of 3-quality-dimension; information quality, interaction quality, usability, 22 items. However, because WebQual 4.0 is focusing on technical part, it's usable at the Website's design part, on the other hand, it's not usable at the Web site's pleasant experience part. Parasuraman, Zeithaml & Malhorta(2002; 2005) had invented the measure for measuring on-line service quality in 2002 and 2005. The study in 2002 divided on-line service quality into 5 dimensions. But these were not well-organized, so there needed to be studied again totally. So Parasuraman, Zeithaml & Malhorta(2005) re-worked out the study about on-line service quality measure base on 2002's study and invented E-S-QUAL. After they invented preliminary measure for on-line service quality, they made up a question for customers who had purchased at amazon.com and walmart.com and reassessed this measure. And they perfected an invention of E-S-QUAL consists of 4 dimensions, 22 items of efficiency, system availability, fulfillment, privacy. Efficiency measures assess to sites and usability and others, system availability measures accurate technical function of sites and others, fulfillment measures promptness of delivering products and sufficient goods and others and privacy measures the degree of protection of data about their customers and so on. 2.2 Service Recovery Service industries tend to minimize the losses by coping with service failure promptly. This responses of service providers to service failure mean service recovery(Kelly & Davis, 1994). Bitner(1990) went on his study from customers' view about service providers' behavior for customers to recognize their satisfaction/dissatisfaction at service point. According to them, to manage service failure successfully, exact recognition of service problem, an apology, sufficient description about service failure and some tangible compensation are important. Parasuraman, Zeithaml & Malhorta(2005) approached the service recovery from how to measure, rather than how to manage, and moved to on-line market not to off-line, then invented E-RecS-QUAL which is a measuring tool about on-line service recovery. 2.3 Customer Satisfaction The definition of customer satisfaction can be divided into two points of view. First, they approached customer satisfaction from outcome of comsumer. Howard & Sheth(1969) defined satisfaction as 'a cognitive condition feeling being rewarded properly or improperly for their sacrifice.' and Westbrook & Reilly(1983) also defined customer satisfaction/dissatisfaction as 'a psychological reaction to the behavior pattern of shopping and purchasing, the display condition of retail store, outcome of purchased goods and service as well as whole market.' Second, they approached customer satisfaction from process. Engel & Blackwell(1982) defined satisfaction as 'an assessment of a consistency in chosen alternative proposal and their belief they had with them.' Tse & Wilton(1988) defined customer satisfaction as 'a customers' reaction to discordance between advance expectation and ex post facto outcome.' That is, this point of view that customer satisfaction is process is the important factor that comparing and assessing process what they expect and outcome of consumer. Unlike outcome-oriented approach, process-oriented approach has many advantages. As process-oriented approach deals with customers' whole expenditure experience, it checks up main process by measuring one by one each factor which is essential role at each step. And this approach enables us to check perceptual/psychological process formed customer satisfaction. Because of these advantages, now many studies are adopting this process-oriented approach(Yi, 1995). 2.4 Loyalty Intention Loyalty has been studied by dividing into behavioral approaches, attitudinal approaches and complex approaches(Dekimpe et al., 1997). In the early years of study, they defined loyalty focusing on behavioral concept, behavioral approaches regard customer loyalty as "a tendency to purchase periodically within a certain period of time at specific retail store." But the loyalty of behavioral approaches focuses on only outcome of customer behavior, so there are someone to point the limits that customers' decision-making situation or process were neglected(Enis & Paul, 1970; Raj, 1982; Lee, 2002). So the attitudinal approaches were suggested. The attitudinal approaches consider loyalty contains all the cognitive, emotional, voluntary factors(Oliver, 1997), define the customer loyalty as "friendly behaviors for specific retail stores." However these attitudinal approaches can explain that how the customer loyalty form and change, but cannot say positively whether it is moved to real purchasing in the future or not. This is a kind of shortcoming(Oh, 1995). 3. Research Design 3.1 Research Model Based on the objects of this study, the research model derived is . 3.2 Hypotheses 3.2.1 The Hypothesis of On-line Service Quality and Overall Service Quality shows, Step 1 and Step 2 are significant, and mediation variable has a significant effect on dependent variables and so does independent variables at Step 3, too. And there needs to prove the partial mediation effect, independent variable's estimate ability at Step 3(Standardized coefficient
shows, Step 1 and Step 2 are significant, and mediation variable has a significant effect on dependent variables and so does independent variables at Step 3, too. And there needs to prove the partial mediation effect, independent variable's estimate ability at Step 3(Standardized coefficient
이메일무단수집거부
이용약관
제 1 장 총칙
제 2 장 이용계약의 체결
제 3 장 계약 당사자의 의무
제 4 장 서비스의 이용
제 5 장 계약 해지 및 이용 제한
제 6 장 손해배상 및 기타사항
Detail Search
Image Search
(β)