• Title/Summary/Keyword: systematic modeling

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An Exploratory Study for Identifying Key Factors in Online Games Development Strategy Utilizing Web Community (온라인게임 개발전략에 관한 탐색적 연구 : 게임 커뮤니티 활용을 중심으로)

  • Jung, Jai-Jin;Chang, Chung-Moo;Kim, Tae-Ung
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.11D no.4
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    • pp.991-1002
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    • 2004
  • Online game business has emerged as the most lucrative entertainment industry, with over 20 million platers. The popularity of online games can be attributed to the presence of numerous PC Bangs around the country, which have pushed online games into the mainstream culture while broadband internet services facilitated online game play. The age distribution of online game players is expanding and a variety of new games are under development to target certain age groups. While the online game market continues to expand, with many new online game publishers entering the market, relatively little is known about which factors are strategically important for successful development of online games. A conceptual framework is proposed, and a structural equation modeling, for Identifying the factors affecting the market success of online games, is developed. The concept of online game community, idea generation, systematic development strategy, flexible development process, utilizing demo-version, outsourcing, etc, are ail introduced into the model, as the independent variables affecting the success level of online games directly and indirectly. Based on data collected from questionnaire survey, the validity of the model has been tested and interesting conclusions have been developed concerning the relationships between these variables. Statistical results show that utilizing online game community and system atic development strategy is the key for successful online game development. Other interesting results concerning game development strategy are also provided. It is hoped that this result might provide the useful guidelines for developing the successful online game contents. With a better understanding of key success factors, online game developers should be able to make adjustments in their development and marketing plans, providing them with a sustainable advantage over their competition.

Stability Analysis of Embankment Overtopping by Initial Fluctuating Water Level (초기 변동수위를 고려한 제방 월류에 따른 안정성 분석)

  • Kim, Jin-Young;Kim, Tae-Heon;Kim, You-Seong;Kim, Jae-Hong
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.31 no.8
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    • pp.51-62
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    • 2015
  • It is not possible to provide resonable evidence for embankment (or dam) overtopping in geotechnical engineering, and conventional analysis by hydrologic design has not provided the evidence for the overflow. However, hydrologic design analysis using Copula function demonstrates the possibility that dam overflow occurs when estimating rainfall probability with rainfall data for 40 years based on fluctuating water level of a dam. Hydrologic dam risk analysis depends on complex hydrologic analyses in that probabilistic relationship needs to be established to quantify various uncertainties associated with modeling process and inputs. The systematic approaches to uncertainty analysis for hydrologic risk analysis have not been addressed yet. In this paper, the initial level of a dam for stability of a dam is generally determined by normal pool level or limiting the level of the flood, but overflow of probability and instability of a dam depend on the sensitivity analysis of the initial level of a dam. In order to estimate the initial level, Copula function and HEC-5 rainfall-runoff model are used to estimate posterior distributions of the model parameters. For geotechnical engineering, slope stability analysis was performed to investigate the difference between rapid drawdown and overtopping of a dam. As a result, the slope instability in overtopping of a dam was more dangerous than that of rapid drawdown condition.

Estimation of BDI Volatility: Leverage GARCH Models (BDI의 변동성 추정: 레버리지 GARCH 모형을 중심으로)

  • Mo, Soo-Won;Lee, Kwang-Bae
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2014
  • This paper aims at measuring how new information is incorporated into volatility estimates. Various GARCH models are compared and estimated with daily BDI(Baltic Dry Index) data. While most researchers agree that volatility is predictable, they differ on how this volatility predictability should be modelled. This study, hence, introduces the asymmetric or leverage volatility models, in which good news and bad news have different predictability for future. We provide the systematic comparison of volatility models focusing on the asymmetric effect of news on volatility. Specifically, three diagnostic tests are provided: the sign bias test, the negative size bias test, and the positive size bias test. From the Ljung-Box test statistic for twelfth-order serial correlation for the level we do not find any significant serial correlation in the unpredictable BDI. The coefficients of skewness and kurtosis both indicate that the unpredictable BDI has a distribution which is skewed to the left and significantly flat tailed. Furthermore, the Ljung-Box test statistic for twelfth-order serial correlations in the squares strongly suggests the presence of time-varying volatility. The sign bias test, the negative size bias test, and the positive size bias test strongly indicate that large positive(negative) BDI shocks cause more volatility than small ones. This paper, also, shows that three leverage models have problems in capturing the correct impact of news on volatility and that negative shocks do not cause higher volatility than positive shocks. Specifically, the GARCH model successfully reveals the shape of the news impact curve and is a useful approach to modeling conditional heteroscedasticity of daily BDI.

A Study of Influencing Factors Upon Using C4I Systems: The Perspective of Mediating Variables in a Structured Model (C4I 시스템 사용의 영향 요인에 관한 연구: 구조모형의 매개변수의 관점에서)

  • Kim, Chong-Man;Kim, In-Jai
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.73-94
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    • 2009
  • The general aspects for the future warfare shows that the concept of firepower and maneuver centric warfare has been replacing with that of information and knowledge centric warfare. Thus, some developed countries are now trying to establish the information systems to perform intelligent warfare and innovate defense operations. The C4I(Command, Control, Communication, Computers and Intelligence for the Warrior) systems make it possible to do modern and systematic war operations. The basic idea of this study is to investigate how TAM(Technology Acceptance Model) can explain the acceptance behavior in military organizations. Because TAM is inadequate in explaining the acceptance processes forcomplex technologies and strict organizations, a revised research model based upon TAM was developed in order to assess the usage of the C4I system. The purpose of this study is to investigate factors affecting the usage of C4I in the Korean Army. The research model, based upon TAM, was extended through a belief construct such as self-efficacy as one of mediating variables. The self-efficacy has been used as a mediating variable for technology acceptance, and the variable was included in the research model. The external variables were selected on the basis of previous research. The external variables can be classified into following: 1) technological, 2) organizational, and 3) environmental factors on the basis of TOE(Technology-Organization-Environment) framework. The technological factor includes the information quality and the task-technology fitness. The organizational factor includes the influence of senior colleagues. The environmental factor includes the education/train data. The external variables are considered very important for explaining the behavior patterns of information technology or systems. A structured questionnaire was developed and administrated to those who were using the C4I system. Total 329 data were used for statistical data analyses. A confirmatory factor analysis and structured equation model were used as main statistical methods. Model fitness Indexes for measurement and structured models were verified before all 18 hypotheses were tested. This study shows that the perceived usefulness and the self-efficacy played their roles more than the perceived ease of use did in TAM. In military organizations, the perceived usefulness showed its mediating effects between external variables and dependent variable, but the perceived ease of use did not. These results imply that the perceived usefulness can explain the acceptance processes better than the perceived ease of use in the army. The self-efficacy was also used as one of the three mediating variables, and showed its mediating effects in explaining the acceptance processes. Such results also show that the self-efficacy can be selected as one possible belief construct in TAM. The perceived usefulness was influenced by such factors as senior colleagues, the information quality, and the task-technology fitness. The self-efficacy was affected by education/train and task-technology fitness. The actual usage of C4I was influenced not by the perceived ease of use but by the perceived usefulness and selfefficacy. This study suggests the followings: (1) An extended TAM can be applied to such strict organizations as the army; (2) Three mediation variables are included in the research model and tested at real situations; and (3) Several other implications are discussed.

Design of e-Learning System for Spectral Analysis of High-Order Pulse (고차원펄스 스펙트럼 분석을 위한 이러닝 시스템의 설계)

  • Oh, Yong-Sun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.11 no.8
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    • pp.475-487
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we present a systematic method to derive spectrum of high-order pulse and a novel design of e-Learning system that deals with deriving the spectrum using concept-based branching method. Spectrum of high-order pulse can be derived using conventional methods including 'Consecutive Differentiations' or 'Convolutions', however, their complexity of calculation should be too high to be used as the order of the pulse increase. We develop a recursive algorithm according to the order of pulse, and then derive the formula of spectrum connected to the order with a newly designed look-up table. Moving along, we design an e-Learning content for studying the procedure of deriving high-order pulse spectrum described above. In this authoring, we use the concept-based object branching method including conventional page or title-type branching in sequential playing. We design all four Content-pages divided into 'Modeling', 'Impulse Response and Transfer Function', 'Parameters' and 'Look-up Table' by these conceptual objects. And modules and sub-modules are constructed hierarchically as conceptual elements from the Content-pages. Students can easily approach to the core concepts of the analysis because of the effects of our new teaching method. We offer step-by-step processes of the e-Learning content through unit-based branching scheme for difficult modules and sub-modules in our system. In addition we can offer repetitive learning processes for necessary block of given learning objects. Moreover, this method of constructing content will be considered as an advanced effectiveness of content itself.

Derivation of Flood Frequency Curve with Uncertainty of Rainfall and Rainfall-Runoff Model (강우 및 강우-유출 모형의 불확실성을 고려한 홍수빈도곡선 유도)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Jang-Gyeong;Park, Sae-Hoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.59-71
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    • 2013
  • The lack of sufficient flood data being kept across Korea has made it difficult to assess reliable estimates of the design flood while relatively sufficient rainfall data are available. In this regard, a rainfall simulation based derivation technique of flood frequency curve has been proposed in some of studies. The main issues in deriving the flood frequency curve is to develop the rainfall simulation model that is able to effectively reproduce extreme rainfall. Also the rainfall-runoff modeling that can convey uncertainties associated with model parameters needs to be developed. This study proposes a systematic approach to fully consider rainfallrunoff related uncertainties by coupling a piecewise Kernel-Pareto based multisite daily rainfall generation model and Bayesian HEC-1 model. The proposed model was applied to generate runoff ensemble at Daechung Dam watershed, and the flood frequency curve was successfully derived. It was confirmed that the proposed model is very promising in estimating design floods given a rigorous comparison with existing approaches.

The Effect of Mobile Tourism Information Service Features on Perceived Value, Satisfaction, and Using Intentions (모바일 관광정보 서비스특성이 지각된 가치 만족도 및 이용의도에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • Lee, Sung-Joon;Dai, Jing
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.12 no.12
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    • pp.75-82
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - Due to the rapidly changing environment, the needs of information distribution are emphasized more than ever before. As information changes to cater to diversity, professionalism, and detailed segmentation, this information is produced exponentially. Many researchers working in intelligence agencies are feeling the need to establish a comprehensive information management and information distribution system in a systematic and more effective manner. Mobile marketing is based on communication when consumers can access information using GPS systems whatever their location may be when they are on a trip. Until recently, Korean companies have been struggling to perform well in the larger mobile tourism information service (MTIS) for Chinese tourists, which is regarded as a blue ocean area. The principal dimensions of the characteristics of a mobile tourism information service were analyzed, and the influence on perceived value and satisfaction was identified. Moreover, the relationship among the variable satisfaction and using intentions was empirically analyzed. Research design, data, and methodology - This study examined the structural relationship among mobile tourism information features, perceived value, satisfaction, and behavioral intentions. It is based on analyzed data from questionnaires involving advanced research. A questionnaire survey targeting Chinese students using a mobile tourism information service in Korea was conducted. A total of 230 questionnaires were circulated, and 221 questionnaires were used for empirical analysis, excluding invalid data. The data were analyzed with structural equation modeling with SPSS 21.0 statistic package reliability analysis, factor analysis, and regression analysis were implemented, and the effects of the mobile tourism information service features on perceived value, satisfaction, and using intentions were presented. Results - First, mobile tourism information service features have a direct positive effect on the practical value, and do not affect the hedonic value. Second, perceived value has a statistically positive effect on satisfaction. Third, perceived value has a positive effect on behavioral intentions. Fourth, satisfaction has a direct positive effect on behavioral intentions. Conclusion - MTIS (mobile tourism information service) involves personal, social, and technical characteristics. We have analyzed the effects of mobile tourism information service on perceived value, and on satisfaction and using intentions. First, the study shows that the characteristics of mobile tourism information service and perceived value in relation to mobile tourism information service usage are important for marketing in the Chinese market. Moreover, after using a mobile tourism information service, the effect on practical value is more than on hedonic value. We could not analyze the program for tourism information service extensively, and used only questionnaires from Chinese students in Korea. In the future, there should be research on the programs for a tourism information service. We expect to study the MTIS program in greater detail, and to improve the quality and reputation of MTIS through the analysis of its program. We hope that this research will allow an evaluation of the relationship between Korea and China regarding MTIS.

The Economic Impact of Contaminated and Noxious Sites : A Meta Analysis (오염-유해시설의 경제적 영향 : 메타분석)

  • Won, Doo Hwan
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.165-196
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    • 2008
  • This paper reports a quantitative meta analysis of the economic impacts of localized noxious and contaminated sites. Using either hedonic property value or stated preference methods, economists have studied the effects of contamination or noxious activities, or the benefits realized from their elimination, on real estate prices at more than 40 sites. In support of wise public and private investments in environmental quality, most of these studies aim to inform decision makers about the benefits of remediation and cleanup. Their results vary considerably, but there has been no previous systematic effort to analyze the differences and identify shared insights. This study uses established methods of meta analysis to identify points of agreement and differences in this body of literature. The studies are characterized by the type of site, modeling approach, geographic extent of impacts, data features, and other key factors that underlie their value estimates. The impact estimates are normalized as proportional effects on property values. This study attempts to discover whether the estimated economic impacts of contamination or noxious activity differ according to these characteristics of the studies, and whether anything general can be said about the economic consequences of site contamination and remediation. Bivariate, multivariate, and logit techniques are applied to the data. The results suggest that the property value is the most sensitive to water base contamination, published case studies result in systematically greater environmental value than those in unpublished reports, and real estate markets show responses to environmental condition changes.

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Object-oriented Design for Water Quality Monitoring Networks in the Han River System (한강수계 수질측정망 개선을 위한 목적 지향 설계 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Wang, Soo-Kyun;Na, Eun-Hye;Park, Seok-Soon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.453-460
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    • 2005
  • Since late 1970s, water quality monitoring had been performed in Korea by various agencies according to their own needs and objectives. Lacking of consistency in principles, such diverse operation has been producing difficulties in management of information on water quality parameters. These difficulties resulted from the fact that the expansion of monitoring networks had been based not on systematic methodology with considerations on scientifically established planning objectives but on personal experiences and subjective judgments in locating monitoring stations. This study aimed, therefore, to develop a selection methodology for locating monitoring stations to provide various informations on water quality to satisfy various monitoring objectives such as understanding short and long term trends of water quality, monitoring violations to water quality standards, identifying external causes and sources affecting water quality changes, supporting utilization of water resources, examining short-term variations in water quality through a concentrated investigation, estimating pollution loads from each unit watershed, supporting water quality modeling, and establishing informative systems for water resources management. Also, we applied the proposed methodology and presented an improved expansion plan for water quality monitoring networks in the Han River.

Development of a GIS-Based Basin Water Balance Analysis Model (GIS 기반의 유역물수지 분석모형 개발)

  • Hwang, Eui-Ho;Kim, Kye-Hyun;Park, Jin-Hyeog;Lee, Geun-Sang
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.34-45
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    • 2004
  • Existing Semangeum's water balance analysis simplifies whole basin to single basin and achieved volume of effluence that produce by Kajiyama way to foundation. But Semangeum is complicated and various rice-wine strainer supply system. And there is difficulty to apply as elastic when water balance element is changed at free point. Divided to unit possession station for suitable water balance analysis model application to Semangeum in this study. And developed basin water balance model of GIS base that can do details analysis is bite about development and transfer of an appropriation in the budget of basin water resources. Achieved study including abstraction and concept design that use UML (unified modeling language) diagram for details analysis, stream network composition for rice-wine strainer supply system application, preprocessing of GIS base and postprocessing module development, model revision and verification etc. Support of this water balance analysis model is available to establish efficient water resources administration plan through outward flow process analysis of water resources. And support is considered to be possible in more convenient and, reasonable water resources administration way establishment by minimizing manual processing in systematic water resources government official to user and support diversified analysis system.

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