• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.11
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• pp.999-1009
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• 2021

As the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events due to climate change are increasing in recent years, it is very important to evaluate and analyze climate conditions to manage and respond to the negative effects of climate change in advance. In this study, the trends and characteristics of regional climate change were analyzed by calculating the climate indices for the Chungcheong Province. Annual and monthly UNEP-MP, UNEP-PM and MDM indices were calculated using daily data from 1973-2020 collected from 10 synoptic meteorological stations operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration. The normality of climate data was analyzed through the KS test, and the climate change trend was analyzed by applying the Spearman and Pearson methods. The Chungcheongnam-do region had a relatively humid climate than the Chungcheongbuk-do region, and the annual climate indices showed a dry climate trend in Cheongju and Chungju, while the climate of Seosan and Buyeo was becoming humid. Based on the monthly trend change analysis, a humid climate trend was observed in summer and autumn, while a dry climate trend was observed in spring and winter. Comparison of climate indices during the past (2001-2010) and the recent (2011-2020) years showed a higher decrease in the average climate indices during the last 10 years and a gradually drying climate change trend was recorded.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.388-401
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• 2011

Asian dust was observed a total of 66 times in the springtime during the period from 2002 to 2010, with 26 cases in March, 23 cases in April and 17 cases in May. This study investigates a Asian dust episode that occurred during the period from 22 to 25 May 2010, based on synoptic weather patterns, wind vector at 850 hPa, relative humidity at 1000 hPa, Jet streams and wind vector at 300 hPa, PM10 concentration in Korea and satellite imagery. In this case, Asian dust originated on 22 May along the rear of a developing low pressure system in Mongolia. The Asian dust was then transported southeastward and bypassed the Korea peninsula from 23 to 24 May, before reaching Japan on 25 May. Jet streams on 24 May bypassed the Korean peninsula and induced the development of a surface low pressure centered over the peninsula. The resulting air flow was critical to the trajectory of the Asian dust, which likewise bypassed the Korean peninsula. 72-hour backward trajectory data reveal that the Shandong Peninsula and the East China Sea were the points of origin for the air flows that swept through the Japanese sites where Asian dust was observable to the naked eay. The Asian dust pathway is ascertained by horizontal distribution of the Asian dust of RGB imagery from MODIS satellites which captured the Asian dust moving over the Shandong Peninsula, the East China Sea, and northwest of the Kyushu region in Japan. Since the synoptic pattern and the transport way of the Asian dust case are far from typical ones, which Asian dust forecasting technique has long been based on, this study can be good example of exceptional Asian dust pattern and it will be used for more accurate Asian dust forecasting.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.37 no.6_2
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• pp.1849-1858
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• 2021

We analyzed the monthly and annual trends of the meteorological factors(wind speeds and directions and air temperatures) measured at an automated synoptic observation system (ASOS) and fine particle (PM₁₀ and PM_2.5) concentrations measured at the air quality monitoring systems(AQMSs) in Suwon. In addition, we investigated how the fine particle concentrations were related to the meteorological factors as well as urban morphological parameters (fractions of building volume and road area). We calculated the total volume of buildings and the total area of the roads in the area of 2 km × 2 km centered at each AQMS using the geographic information system and environmental geographic information system. The analysis of the meteorological factors showed that the dominant wind directions at the ASOS were westerly and northwesterly and that the average wind speed was strong in Spring. The measured fine particle concentrations were low in Summer and early Autumn (July to September) and high in Spring and Winter. In 2020, the annual mean fine particle concentration was lowest at most AQMSs. The fine particle concentrations were negatively and weakly correlated with the measured wind speeds and air temperatures (the correlation between PM_2.5 concentrations and air temperatures was relatively strong). In Suwon city, at least for 6 AQMSs except for the RAQMS 131116 and AQMS 131118, the PM₁₀ concentrations were affected mainly by the transport from outside rather than primary emission from mobile sources or wind speed decrease caused by buildings and, in the case of PM_2.5, vise versa.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.42 no.5
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• pp.479-495
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• 2021

This study investigates the synoptic (patterns of southern highs, northern lows, and lows rapidly developed by tropopause folding), thermodynamic, and kinematic characteristics of a strong wind that occurred in the Yeongdong region of South Korea on March 18-20, 2020. To do so, we analyzed data from an automatic weather station (AWS), weather charts, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis, rawinsonde, and windprofiler radars. The daily maximum instantaneous wind speed, exceeding 20 m s^-1, was observed at five weather stations during the analysis period. The strongest instantaneous wind speed (27.7 m s^-1) appeared in the Daegwallyeong area. According to the analysis of weather charts, along with the arrangement of the north-south low-pressure line, the isobars were moved to the Yeongdong area. It showed a sine wave shape, and a strong wind developed owing to the strong pressure gradient. On March 19, in the northern part of the Korean Peninsula, with a drop in atmospheric pressure of 19 hPa or more within one day, a continuous strong wind was developed by the synoptic structure of the developing polar low. In the adiabatic chart observed in Bukgangneung, the altitude of the inversion layer was located at an altitude of approximately 1-3 km above the mountaintop, along with the maximum wind speed. We confirmed that this is consistent with the results of the vertical wind field analysis of the rawinsonde and windprofiler data. In particular, based on the thermodynamic and kinematic vertical analyses, we suggest that strong winds due to the vertical gradient of potential temperature in the lower layer and the development of potential vorticity due to tropopause folding play a significant role in the occurrence of strong winds in the Yeongdong region.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.39 no.6
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• pp.713-723
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• 2019

Due to the climate change and various rainfall pattern, it is difficult to estimate a rainfall criterion which cause inundation for urban drainage districts. It is necessary to examine the result of inundation analysis by considering the detailed topography of the watershed, drainage system, and various rainfall scenarios. In this study, various rainfall scenarios were considered with the probabilistic rainfall and Huff's time distribution method in order to identify the rainfall characteristics affecting the inundation of the Hyoja drainage basin. Flood analysis was performed with SWMM and two-dimensional inundation analysis model and the parameters of SWMM were optimized with flood trace map and GA (Genetic Algorithm). By linking SWMM and two-dimensional flood analysis model, the fitness ratio between the existing flood trace and simulated inundation map turned out to be 73.6 %. The occurrence of inundation according to each rainfall scenario was identified, and the rainfall criterion could be estimated through the logistic regression method. By reflecting the results of one/two dimensional flood analysis, and AWS/ASOS data during 2010~2018, the rainfall criteria for inundation occurrence were estimated as 72.04 mm, 146.83 mm, 203.06 mm in 1, 2 and 3 hr of rainfall duration repectively. The rainfall criterion could be re-estimated through input of continuously observed rainfall data. The methodology presented in this study is expected to provide a quantitative rainfall criterion for urban drainage area, and the basic data for flood warning and evacuation plan.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.38 no.5
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• pp.659-666
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• 2003

This study is a comparative analysis on the variabilities of spring precipitation and atmospheric circulations of 500hPa surfaces between dry years and wet years over the Korean Peninsula. The distribution of variabilities of precipitation in spring are different from month to month. In March, the pattern is west-high and east-low, in April, north-high and south-low, in May, east-high and west-low respectively. In the distribution of 500hPa geopotential height anomaly, dry years of March show west-high and east-low pattern in that negative anomaly zones are formed around the Korean Peninsula and western coast of the northern Pacific Ocean, and positive anomaly zones are formed in the inland of East Asia centered on Siberia. Consequently, the Korean Peninsula and neighboring regions experience dry season when the zonal flows are strong with the positive anomaly zones of zonal components. On the contrary in the wet years the westerlies are weak since the pattern is east-high and west-low in which the positive anomaly zones are formed over the Korean Peninsula centered on the Aleutian Islands and western coast of the northern Pacific Ocean and the negative anomaly zones are formed in the inland of East Asia centered on Tibet Plateau and Siberia. The dry years of April and May show north-high and south-low patterns in that negative anomaly zones are found from the center of the northern Pacific Ocean to the eastern coast of East Asia, and the positive anomaly zones are found in the center of East Asia extending from Aleutian Islands to Tibet Plateau. On the contrary, in the wet years the patterns show south-high and north-low. This study identified not only that there are contrary atmospheric circulation patterms between dry years and wet years over Korean Peninsua in spring, but also there are different atmosphric circulation patterns between early and late spring.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2002.05a
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• pp.43-50
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• 2002

Accurate quantitative forecasting of rainfall for basins with a short response time is essential to predict streamflow and flash floods. Previously, neural networks were used to develop a Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) model that highly improved forecasting skill at specific locations in Pennsylvania, using both Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) output and rainfall and radiosonde data. The objective of this study was to improve an existing artificial neural network model and incorporate the evolving structure and frequency of intense weather systems in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States for improved flood forecasting. Besides using radiosonde and rainfall data, the model also used the satellite-derived characteristics of storm systems such as tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective complex systems and convective cloud clusters as input. The convective classification and tracking system (CCATS) was used to identify and quantify storm properties such as life time, area, eccentricity, and track. As in standard expert prediction systems, the fundamental structure of the neural network model was learned from the hydroclimatology of the relationships between weather system, rainfall production and streamflow response in the study area. The new Quantitative Flood Forecasting (QFF) model was applied to predict streamflow peaks with lead-times of 18 and 24 hours over a five year period in 4 watersheds on the leeward side of the Appalachian mountains in the mid-Atlantic region. Threat scores consistently above .6 and close to 0.8 ∼ 0.9 were obtained fur 18 hour lead-time forecasts, and skill scores of at least 4％ and up to 6％ were attained for the 24 hour lead-time forecasts. This work demonstrates that multisensor data cast into an expert information system such as neural networks, if built upon scientific understanding of regional hydrometeorology, can lead to significant gains in the forecast skill of extreme rainfall and associated floods. In particular, this study validates our hypothesis that accurate and extended flood forecast lead-times can be attained by taking into consideration the synoptic evolution of atmospheric conditions extracted from the analysis of large-area remotely sensed imagery While physically-based numerical weather prediction and river routing models cannot accurately depict complex natural non-linear processes, and thus have difficulty in simulating extreme events such as heavy rainfall and floods, data-driven approaches should be viewed as a strong alternative in operational hydrology. This is especially more pertinent at a time when the diversity of sensors in satellites and ground-based operational weather monitoring systems provide large volumes of data on a real-time basis.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.280-293
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• 2012

In order to clarify the characteristics of dispersion of volcanic tephra emitted from the Mt. Baegdu with various eruption environment, numerical analysis were performed using numerical models, Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) and FLEXPART. Synoptic conditions at 12 October 2010 was adopted because the volcanic ash of Mt. Baegdu can reach the Korean peninsula and its dispersion pattern was compared with different Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) and particle size. Predominant size of falling out ash flowing in the peninsular is smaller than 0.5 mm and the ash large than the size is difficult to get in the peninsular due to the its weak ability of truculent diffusion. the difference of ash distribution with various VEI scenarios is not so much but number density of ash in the air is dramatically changed. Volcanic ash tends to be deposited easily in eastern coastal area such as Gangneung and Busan, because of the inflow of ash from East Sea and barrier effect of the Taeback mountains along the east coast of the Korean Peninsula. Accumulated amount of ash deposition can be increased in short period in several urban areas.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.34 no.7
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• pp.645-661
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• 2013

The synoptic, thermodynamic, and dynamic characteristics of a heavy snowfall event that occurred in Seoul metropolitan area on 27 to 28 December 2010 was investigated. During this period there was a distinctive case that was identified as a polar low. We analyzed surface and upper level weather charts, snowfall amount, sea surface temperature, satellite imagery, sounding, and the National Center for Environmental Prediction global $1^{\circ}{\times}1^{\circ}$ reanalysis data. The polar low developed in an area where there was strong baroclinicity in the lower level aided by strong conditional instability due to 925 hPa warm air advection and 700 hPa cold air advection. The development mechanism of polar low is due, in part, to the tropopause folding, which advected stratospheric air increasing potential vorticity in mid-level and inducing cyclonic vorticity and convergence in low-level. Eventually clouds developed and there were snowfall total of 10 cm in Seoul metropolitan area and as much as 20 cm in southern parts of Korea. During the snowfall development, there was a $-45^{\circ}C$ cold core at 500 hPa and shortwave maintained $3-5^{\circ}$ separation with surface trough, which favored the development of polar low located in the warm sector and cyclonic advection area. The height of the dynamical tropopause lowered to 700 hPa during the peak development and increase in potential vorticity allowed strong vertical motion to occur. Overall, there was a close relationship between the development of snowfall and tropopause undulation. The heaviest snowfall occurred east of the tropopause folding where strong cyclonic vorticity, vertical motion, and moisture advection all coincided while the polar low was passing through the Korean peninsula.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.1-19
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• 2008

This study intends to clarify the characteristics and causes of current changes in wintertime precipitation in Korea and to predict the future directions based on surface observational $(1973/04\sim2006/07)$ and modeled (GFDL 2.1) climate data. Analyses of surface observation data demonstrate that without changes in the total amount of precipitation, snowfall in winter (November-April) has reduced by 4.3cm/decade over the $1973\sim2007$ period. Moreover, the frequency and intensity of snowfall have decreased; the duration of snow season has shortened; and the snow-to-rain day ratio (STDR) has decreased. These patterns indicate that the type of wintertime precipitation has changed from snow to rain in recent decades. The snow-to-rain change in winter is associated with the increases of air temperature (AT) over South Korea. Analyses of synoptic charts reveal that the warming pattern is associated with the formation of a positive pressure anomaly core over northeast Asia by a hemispheric positive winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) mode. Moreover, the differentiated warming of AT versus sea surface temperature (SST) under the high pressure anomaly core reduces the air-sea temperature gradient, and subsequently it increases the atmospheric stability above oceans, which is associated with less formation of snow cloud. Comparisons of modeled data between torrent $(1981\sim2000)$ and future $(2081\sim2100)$ periods suggest that the intensified warming with larger anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission in the $21^{st}$ century will amplify the magnitude of these changes. More reduction of snow impossible days as well as more abbreviation of snow seasons is predicted in the $21^{st}$ century.