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Current and Future Changes in the Type of Wintertime Precipitation in South Korea  

Choi, Gwang-Yong (Climate Research Laboratory, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Korea Meteorological Administration)
Kwon, Won-Tae (Climate Research Laboratory, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Korea Meteorological Administration)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Geographical Society / v.43, no.1, 2008 , pp. 1-19 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study intends to clarify the characteristics and causes of current changes in wintertime precipitation in Korea and to predict the future directions based on surface observational $(1973/04\sim2006/07)$ and modeled (GFDL 2.1) climate data. Analyses of surface observation data demonstrate that without changes in the total amount of precipitation, snowfall in winter (November-April) has reduced by 4.3cm/decade over the $1973\sim2007$ period. Moreover, the frequency and intensity of snowfall have decreased; the duration of snow season has shortened; and the snow-to-rain day ratio (STDR) has decreased. These patterns indicate that the type of wintertime precipitation has changed from snow to rain in recent decades. The snow-to-rain change in winter is associated with the increases of air temperature (AT) over South Korea. Analyses of synoptic charts reveal that the warming pattern is associated with the formation of a positive pressure anomaly core over northeast Asia by a hemispheric positive winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) mode. Moreover, the differentiated warming of AT versus sea surface temperature (SST) under the high pressure anomaly core reduces the air-sea temperature gradient, and subsequently it increases the atmospheric stability above oceans, which is associated with less formation of snow cloud. Comparisons of modeled data between torrent $(1981\sim2000)$ and future $(2081\sim2100)$ periods suggest that the intensified warming with larger anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission in the $21^{st}$ century will amplify the magnitude of these changes. More reduction of snow impossible days as well as more abbreviation of snow seasons is predicted in the $21^{st}$ century.
Keywords
wintertime precipitation; snow-to-precipitation day ratio; air-sea temperature gradient; Arctic Oscillation (AO); climate model (GFDL 2.1); climate change;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
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