• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.105-117
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• 2001

This paper models supply uncertainty in the dynamic Newsboy problem context. The system consists of one supplier and one retailer who places an order to the supplier every period to meet stochastic demand. Supply uncertainty is modeled as the uncertainty in quantities delivered by the supplier. That is, the supplier delivers exactly the amount ordered by the retailer with probability of $\beta$ and the amount minus K with probability of (1-$\beta$). We formulate the problem as a dynamic programming problem and prove that retailer’s optimal replenishment policy is a stationary base-stock policy. Through a numerical study, we found that the cost increase due to supply uncertainty is significant and that the costs increase more rapidly as supply uncertainty increases. We also identified the effects of various system parameters. One of the interesting results is that as retailer’s demand uncertainty, the other uncertainty in our model, increases, the cost increase due to supply uncertainty becomes less significant.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제56권2호
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• pp.11-23
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• 2014

The impact and adaption on agricultural water resources considering climate change is significant for reservoirs. The change in rainfall patterns and hydrologic factors due to climate change increases the uncertainty of agricultural water supply and demand. The quantitative evaluation method of uncertainty based on agricultural water resource management under future climate conditions is a major concern. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the vulnerability management technique for agricultural water supply based on a probabilistic and stochastic risk evaluation theory. The objective of this study was to analyse the uncertainty of water resources under future climate change using probability distribution function of water supply in agricultural reservoir and demand in irrigation district. The uncertainty of future water resources in agricultural reservoirs was estimated using the time-specific analysis of histograms and probability distributions parameter, for example the location and the scale parameter. According to the uncertainty analysis, the future agricultural water supply and demand in reservoir tends to increase the uncertainty by the low consistency of the results. Thus, it is recommended to prepare a resonable decision making on water supply strategies in terms of using climate change scenarios that reflect different future development conditions.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제30권3호
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• pp.81-93
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• 2005

This paper models supply chain uncertainties in the dynamic Newsboy Problem context. The system consists of one supplier and one retailer who place an order to the supplier every period. Demand uncertainty is modeled as stochastic period demand, and supply uncertainty as the uncertainty in quantities delivered by the supplier. The supplier delivers exactly the amount ordered by the retailer with probability of $\beta$ and the amount minus K with probability of $(1-\beta)$ We formulate the problem as a dynamic programming problem and derive the first-order optimality condition. Through a numerical study, we measure the extent to which the cost decrease due to the reduction in supply uncertainty depends on the level of demand uncertainty. One of the most important findings In this paper is that this cost decrease is relatively small if demand uncertainty is kept high, and vice versa. We also backup this numerical result by analyzing the distribution of ending Inventory under the supply and demand uncertainties.

• 한국산업정보학회논문지
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.47-58
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• 2021

본 연구는 COVID-19과 같이 불확실성이 증대되어 있는 상황에서 인지된 불확실성, 거래특성, 공급업체 역량과 공급망 성과 간의 상호 관계를 문헌 연구를 바탕으로 제시하였다. 이론 고찰 결과 거래특성 및 공급업체 역량은 인지된 불확실성에 영향을 미치며, 인지된 불확실성은 공급망 성과에 영향을 미치는 매개 변수가 될 수 있음을 확인하였다. 이러한 연구결과는 현재와 같은 팬데믹 상황이 공급망의 성과에 미치는 영향을 돌이켜보고, 동일한 환경 하에서 불확실성을 상대적으로 낮추기 위한 방법을 본 연구에서 제시한 연구모형과 이론적 고찰을 바탕으로 살펴볼 수 있다는 점에서 의미가 있다 하겠다.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제46권4호
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• pp.959-972
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• 2018

Purpose: This study developed a simulation model that incorporates the uncertainty of demand and yield to obtain optimized results for supply chain coordination within environmental constraints. The objective of this study is to examine whether yield management for perishable products can achieve the goal of supply chain coordination between a single buyer and a single supplier under a variety of environmental conditions. Methods: We investigated the efficiency of a revenue-sharing contract and a wholesale price contract by considering demand and yield uncertainty, profit maximizing ratio, and success ratio. The implications for environmental variation were derived through a comparative analysis between the wholesale price contract and the revenue-sharing contract. We performed Monte Carlo simulations to give us the results of an optimized supply chain within the environments defined by the experimental factors and parameters. Results: We found that a revised revenue-sharing contracting model was more efficient than the wholesale price contract model and allowed all members of the supply chain to achieve higher profits. First, as the demand variation (${\sigma}$) increased, the profit of the total supply chain increased. Second, as the revenue-sharing ratio (${\Phi}$) increased, the profits of the manufacturer gradually decreased, while the profits of the retailer gradually increased, and this change was linear. Third, as the quality of yield increased, the profits of suppliers appear to increased. At last, success rate was expressed as the profit increased in the revenue-sharing contract compared to the profit increase in the wholesale price contract. Conclusion: The managerial implications of the simulation findings are: (1) a strategic approach to demand and yield uncertainty helps in efficient resource utilization and improved supply chain performance, (2) a revenue-sharing contract amplifies the effect of yield uncertainty, and (3) revised revenue-sharing contracts fetch more profits for both buyers and suppliers in the supply chain.

• 경영과학
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• 제33권3호
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• pp.105-117
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• 2016

In this paper, we present empirical testing result to examine the validity of inbound supply and outbound demand risk factors in the sense of early predicting the firm's bankruptcy risk level. The risk factors are drawn from industry uncertainty attributes categorized as uncertainties of input market (inbound supply), and product market (outbound demand). On the basis of input-output table, industry level inbound and outbound sectors are identified to formalize supply chain structures, relevant inbound and outbound uncertainty attributes and corresponding risk factors. Subsequently, publicly available macro-economic indicators are used to appropriately quantify these risk factors. Total 68 industry level bankruptcy risk forecasting results are presented with the average R-square scores of between 53.4% and 37.1% with varying time lag. The findings offers useful insights to incorporate supply chain risk to the body of firm's bankruptcy risk level prediction literature.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제43권4호
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• pp.178-189
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• 2020

The purpose of this study was to analyze structural relationships with regard to the effect of customer integration, which is a type of integration in the supply chain, and market orientation of supply chain on the resulting change in the supply chain and management performance. The results of analysis in this study are as follows: First, customer integration and market orientation had a positive effect on reducing the flexibility and uncertainty of SCM. The decreased flexibility and uncertainty of SCM had a positive effect on non-financial performance, which also had a positive effect on financial performance. Second, customer integration and market orientation had a positive effect on financial and non-financial performance indirectly by decreasing the flexibility and uncertainty of SCM. Third, the effect of customer integration and uncertainty of SCM on the flexibility of SCM changed depending on the position in the supply chain; the effect was larger in the distribution group. The implications based on the analysis results are as follows: It is expected that the ability to deal with market changes in the overall supply chain is improved by laying the foundation for cooperation through establishing information infrastructure, including sharing information with trade partners and integrating systems, and implementing customer integration based on these achievements. It is also necessary to consider the business types and characteristics of individual companies in establishing information infrastructure.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제44권4호
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• pp.220-226
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• 2021

In supply chain, there are a variety of different uncertainties including demand, service time, lead time, and so forth. The uncertainty of demand has been commonly studied by researchers or practitioners in the field of supply chain. However, the uncertainty of upstream supply chain has also increased. A problem of uncertainty in the upstream supply chain is the fluctuation of the lead time. The stochastic lead time sometimes causes to happen so called the order crossover which is not the same sequences of the order placed and the order arrived. When the order crossover happens, ordinary inventory policies have difficult to find the optimal inventory solutions. In this research, we investigate the lead time distribution in case of the order crossover and explore the resolutions of the inventory solution with the order crossover.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제15권9호
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• pp.95-107
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• 2017

Purpose - In the joint development of new products, buyers and suppliers exchange information to solve various problems. Uncertainty and ambiguity are typical examples. Uncertainty refers to the lack of information to solve the problem, and equivocality refers to the case where the information is interpreted in multiple processes in the process of providing the information. These uncertainty and equivocality cause new products to be delayed in their development and adversely affect quality. However, unfortunately, there is a lack of researches on how the uncertainty and equivocality of such concepts control the results of new product joint development. But, smooth communication and effective exchange of information is not emphasized only in the general organization. The importance of the new product joint development projects to achieve the two organizations' common goals becomes even greater. The purposes of this study are to analyse the effect of supplier's strategy on the NPD performance and moderating effect of uncertainty and equivocality. Research design, data, and methodology - In order to make a contribution to the lack of academic researches in Korea, this study collects data through questionnaires based on organizational information processing theory and previous studies, and conducts empirical analysis. Results - As a result, the product modularization strategy and the strategic supply chain relationship positively influenced the new product development performance - return on investment and ease of manufacturing. And the interaction effect of uncertainty and equivocality with supplier's strategy - product modularity strategy and strategic supply chain management relationship - reduces or negates the influence of product modularization strategy on new product development performance. Conclusions - This implies that it is important to control uncertainty and equivocality in order for the supplier strategy to have a positive effect on new product development performance. It also emphasizes the necessity of sharing information appropriately for companies that do not want to share the information as possible due to their fear of loss of competitive advantage in the joint development of new products. Because this kind of negative policy might let uncertainty and equivocality be happen in new product joint development process.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제39권4호
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• pp.137-146
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• 2016

In recent years, business environment is faced with multi uncertainty that have not been suffered in the past. As supply chain is getting expanded and longer, the flow of information, material and production is also being complicated. It is well known that development service industry using application software has various uncertainty in random events such as supply and demand fluctuation of developer's capcity, project effective date after winning a contract, manpower cost (or revenue), subcontract cost (or purchase), and overrun due to developer's skill-level. This study intends to social contribution through attempts to optimize enterprise's goal by supply chain management platform to balance demand and supply and stochastic programming which is basically applied in order to solve uncertainty considering economical and operational risk at solution supplier. In Particular, this study emphasizes to determine allocation of internal and external manpower of developers using S&OP (Sales & Operations Planning) as monthly resource input has constraint on resource's capability that shared in industry or task. This study is to verify how Stochastic Programming such as Markowitz's MV (Mean Variance) model or 2-Stage Recourse Model is flexible and efficient than Deterministic Programming in software enterprise field by experiment with process and data from service industry which is manufacturing software and performing projects. In addition, this study is also to analysis how profit and labor input plan according to scope of uncertainty is changed based on Pareto Optimal, then lastly it is to enumerate limitation of the study extracted drawback which can be happened in real business environment and to contribute direction in future research considering another applicable methodology.