• 한국우주과학회:학술대회논문집(한국우주과학회보)
• /
• 한국우주과학회 2008년도 한국우주과학회보 제17권2호
• /
• pp.32.4-33
• /
• 2008

Korea space weather prediction center (KSWPC) in Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) has been constructing several facilities to observe mid- to low-latitude upper atmospheric/ionospheric phenomena; VHF coherent scattering radar, All-sky Imager, and Scintmon. Those new ionospheric facilities can be integrated to produce more reliable space weather forecast and nowcast with the existing facilities; Solar Flare Telescope (SOFT), Solar Optical Observatory's sunspot telescope and solar imaging spectrograph, and Magnetometer. The specification of KASI VHF coherent scattering radar is 40.8 MHz of target frequency, 200 kHz of bandwidth, 24 kW of peak power. The science goal of this radar is to measure the irregularities in E- and F-layers over Korea, especially sporadic-E, spread-F, and traveling ionospheric disturbance (TID). The radar will be installed at Gyerong in a territory of Korean Air force by early 2009.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
• /
• 제30권2호
• /
• pp.101-106
• /
• 2013

The length of solar cycle 23 has been prolonged up to about 13 years. Many studies have speculated that the solar cycle 23/24 minimum will indicate the onset of a grand minimum of solar activity, such as the Maunder Minimum. We check the trends of solar (sunspot number, solar magnetic fields, total solar irradiance, solar radio flux, and frequency of solar X-ray flare), interplanetary (interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind and galactic cosmic ray intensity), and geomagnetic (Ap index) parameters (SIG parameters) during solar cycles 21-24. Most SIG parameters during the period of the solar cycle 23/24 minimum have remarkably low values. Since the 1970s, the space environment has been monitored by ground observatories and satellites. Such prevalently low values of SIG parameters have never been seen. We suggest that these unprecedented conditions of SIG parameters originate from the weakened solar magnetic fields. Meanwhile, the deep 23/24 solar cycle minimum might be the portent of a grand minimum in which the global mean temperature of the lower atmosphere is as low as in the period of Dalton or Maunder minimum.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
• /
• 제35권2호
• /
• pp.55-66
• /
• 2018

The solar magnetic field plays a central role in the field of solar research, both theoretically and practically. Sunspots are an important observational constraint since they are considered a discernable tracer of emerged magnetic flux tubes, providing the longest running records of solar magnetic activity. In this presentation, we first review the statistical properties of the latitudinal distribution of sunspots and discuss their implications. The phase difference between paired wings of the butterfly diagram has been revealed. Sunspots seem to emerge with the exponential distribution on top of slowly varying trends by periods of ~11 years, which is considered multiplicative rather than additive. We also present a concept for the center-of-latitude (COL) and its use. With this, one may sort out a traditional butterfly diagram and find new features. It is found that the centroid of the COL does not migrate monotonically toward the equator, appearing to form an 'active latitude'. Furthermore, distributions of the COL as a function of latitude depend on solar activity and the solar North-South asymmetry. We believe that these findings serve as crucial diagnostic tools for any potential model of the solar dynamo. Finally, we find that as the Sun modulates the amount of observed galactic cosmic ray influx, the solar North-South asymmetry seems to contribute to the relationship between the solar variability and terrestrial climate change.

• 한국정보처리학회논문지
• /
• 제5권10호
• /
• pp.2609-2614
• /
• 1998

본 연구에서는 신경망 모형을 이용한 시계열 예측에 있어서 분석할 시계열의 특성에 맞는 적응적 학습률을 구하고 초기 값의 동적인 적용을 통한 개선된 학습방법을 이용하여 신경망 예측을 하고 통계적인 Box-Jenkins예측 결과와 비교해 봄으로써 두 방법간의 시계열 예측 효율성을 비교한다. 신경망 모형에 맞는 적응적 학습률은 표준 직교 배열표에 의해 실험계획을 한 25가지의 모수 조합으로부터 구하고, 신경망 학습의 초기값은 Easton의 제어상자를 동적으로 적용하여 실시간으로 선택할 수 있도록한다. 실증분석에 적용된 시계열자료는 1700년부터 1988년까지의 태양 흑점 자료이다.

• 천문학회지
• /
• 제33권1호
• /
• pp.47-55
• /
• 2000

Nonpotential characteristics of magnetic fields in AR 5747 are examined using Mees Solar Observatory magnetograms taken on Oct. 20, 1989 to Oct. 22, 1989. The active region showed such violent flaring activities during the observational span that strong X-ray flares took place including a 2B/X3 flare. The magnetogram data were obtained by the Haleakala Stokes Polarimeter which provides simultaneous Stokes profiles of the Fe I doublet 6301.5 and 6302.5. A nonlinear least square method was adopted to derive the magnetic field vectors from the observed Stokes profiles and a multi-step ambiguity solution method was employed to resolve the $180^{\circ}$ ambiguity. From the ambiguity-resolved vector magnetograms, we have derived a set of physical quantities characterizing the field configuration, which are magnetic flux, vertical current density, magnetic shear angle, angular shear, magnetic free energy density, a measure of magnetic field discontinuity MAD and linear force-free coefficient. Our results show that (1) magnetic nonpotentiality is concentrated near the inversion line in the flaring sites, (2) all the physical parameters decreased with time, which may imply that the active region was in a relaxation stage of its evolution, (3) 2-D MAD has similar patterns with other nonpotential parameters, demonstrating that it can be utilized as an useful parameter of flare producing active region, and (4) the linear force-free coefficient could be a evolutionary indicator with a merit as a global nonpotential parameter.

• 항공우주시스템공학회지
• /
• 제14권2호
• /
• pp.50-56
• /
• 2020

In this study, we investigated whether long short-term memory (LSTM) can be used in the future to predict F10.7 index data; the F10.7 index is a space environment factor affecting atomic oxygen erosion. Based on this, we compared the prediction performances of LSTM, the Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model (which is a traditional statistical prediction model), and the similar pattern searching method used for long-term prediction. The LSTM model yielded superior results compared to the other techniques in the prediction period starting from the max/min points, but presented inferior results in the prediction period including the inflection points. It was found that efficient learning was not achieved, owing to the lack of currently available learning data in the prediction period including the maximum points. To overcome this, we proposed a method to increase the size of the learning samples using the sunspot data and to upgrade the LSTM model.

• 천문학회보
• /
• 제35권1호
• /
• pp.32.1-32.1
• /
• 2010

KASI's Solar and Space Weather Research Group (SSWRG) is actively involved in solar and space weather research. Since its inception, the SSWRG has been utilizing ground-based assets for its research, such as the Solar Flare Telescope, Solar Imaging Spectrograph, and Sunspot Telescope. In 2007 SSWRG initiated the Korean Space Weather Prediction Center (KSWPC). The goal of KSWPC is to extend the current ground observation capabilities, construct space weather database and networking, develop prediction models, and expand space weather research. Beginning in 2010, SSWRG plans to expand its research activities by collaborating with new international partners, continuing the development of space weather prediction models and forecast system, and phasing into developing and launching space-based assets. In this talk, we will report on KASI's recent activities of international collaborations with NASA for STEREO (Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory), SDO (Solar Dynamic Observatory), and Radiation Belt Storm Probe (RBSP).

• 천문학회보
• /
• 제42권1호
• /
• pp.41.1-41.1
• /
• 2017

It is well known that there are good relations of coronal hole (CH) parameters such as the size, location, and magnetic field strength to the solar wind conditions and the geomagnetic storms. Especially in the minimum phase of solar cycle, CHs in mid- or low-latitude are one of major drivers for geomagnetic storms, since they form corotating interaction regions (CIRs). By adopting the method of Vrsnak et al. (2007), the Space Weather Research Center (SWRC) in Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) has done daily forecast of solar wind speed and Dst index from 2010. Through years of experience, we realize that the geomagnetic storms caused by CHs have different characteristics from those by CMEs. Thus, we statistically analyze the characteristics and causality of the geomagnetic storms by the CHs rather than the CMEs with dataset obtained during the solar activity was very low. For this, we examine the CH properties, solar wind parameters as well as geomagnetic storm indices. As the first result, we show the different trends of the solar wind parameters and geomagnetic indices depending on the degree of solar activity represented by CH (quiet) or sunspot number (SSN) in the active region (active) and then we evaluate our forecasts using CH information and suggest several ideas to improve forecasting capability.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• 제21권1호
• /
• pp.59-103
• /
• 1999

본 논문의 목적은 아시아, 특히 한국의 외환위기 발생원인을 실증적으로 살펴보는 데 있다. 이를 위하여 본고는 먼저 103개 개발도상국의 1980~97년 동안의 자료를 이용하여 외환위기 발생의 일반적인 원인들을 추정한 다음, 그 결과에 기초하여 한국 외환위기의 발생원인을 살펴보는 접근방법을 취하고 있다. 본고에서는 외환위기의 발생원인을 크게 국내 기초경제여건과 유동성으로 나우어 살펴보고 있는데, 실증결과에 의하면 외환위기 국들은 공통적으로 외환위기 발생 이전에 성장률, 교역조건 등의 기초여건 악화나 외환보유고 등의 유동성 부족을 경험하는 것으로 나타난다. 따라서 외환위기의 발생은 sunspot과 같은 임의적인 요인에 의해 결정되며 미리 예측할 수 없다는 주장은 설득력이 없는 것으로 보인다. 한편 시대별로는, 80년대의 외환위기가 주로 환율 및 통화정책의 실패에 크게 기인한 반면, 90년대의 외환위기에는 실물부문의 악화와 유동성의 부족이 보다 중요한 역할을 한 것으로 추정된다. 이상의 결과에 기초하여 한국의 외환위기를 살펴보면, 먼저 한국의 사전적 외환위기 발생가능성은 결코 낮지 않았던 것으로 보인다. 오히려 96년 당시의 경제상황을 고려할 때 한국은 다른 아시아 외환위기국들보다 더 높은 정도의 외환위기 발생가능성을 내포하고 있었던 것으로 나타난다. 한편 외환위기의 원인면에서는 한국의 경우 다른 외환위기사례에 비하여 교역조건의 악화와 유동성의 부족이 상대적으로 중요한 역할을 한 것으로 나타난다. 따라서 한국의 외환위기는 기초여건(fundamental)의 악화와 유동성(liquidity)의 부족 모두에 기인한 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국항행학회논문지
• /
• 제22권5호
• /
• pp.409-414
• /
• 2018

광역 차분위성항법시스템의 서비스 영역을 기준국 네트워크 외부로 확장하기 위해서는 전리층 보정 정보의 외삽이 필수적이다. 본 논문에서는 전리층 보정 영역 확장을 위한 인공 신경망을 설계하고 이에 대한 성능분석을 수행하였다. 인공 신경망 입력으로 사용되는 일/년별 주기함수, 태양흑점개수, 자기장 인덱스(Ap)의 개별 요소들이 전리층 외삽 추정 성능에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 신경망의 구성에 있어서는 은닉 층의 수 및 뉴런 개수 변화에 따른 성능 분석을 수행하였다. 분석결과를 바탕으로 신경망을 구현하고 태양활동 극대기(2014년)의 고위도와 저위도 지역에서의 전리층 추정 결과를 보였다.