• Title/Summary/Keyword: stochastic simulation.

Search Result 785, Processing Time 0.025 seconds

Forecasting Renewable Energy Using Delphi Survey and the Economic Evaluation of Long-Term Generation Mix (델파이 활용 신재생 에너지 수요예측과 장기전원 구성의 경제성 평가)

  • Koo, Hoonyoung;Min, Daiki
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
    • /
    • v.39 no.3
    • /
    • pp.183-191
    • /
    • 2013
  • We address the power generation mix problem that considers not only nuclear and fossil fuels such as oil, coal and LNG but also renewable energy technologies. Unlike nuclear or other generation technologies, the expansion plan of renewable energy is highly uncertain because of its dependency on the government policy and uncertainty associated with technology improvements. To address this issue, we conduct a delphi survey and forecast the capacity of renewable energy. We further propose a stochastic mixed integer programming model that determines an optimal capacity expansion and the amount of power generation using each generation technology. Using the proposed model, we test eight generation mix scenarios and particularly evaluate how much the expansion of renewable energy contributes to the total costs for power generation in Korea. The evaluation results show that the use of renewable energy incurs additional costs.

Predictive and Preventive Maintenance using Distributed Control on LonWorks/IP Network

  • Song, Ki-Won
    • International Journal of Safety
    • /
    • v.5 no.2
    • /
    • pp.6-11
    • /
    • 2006
  • The time delay in servo control on LonWorks/IP Virtual Device Network (VDN) is highly stochastic in nature. LonWorks/IP VDN induced time delay deteriorates the performance and stability of the real-time distributed control system and hinders an effective preventive and predictive maintenance. Especially in real-time distributed servo applications on the factory floor, timely response is essential for predictive and preventive maintenance. In order to guarantee the stability and performance of the system for effective preventive and predictive maintenance, LonWorks/IP VDN induced time delay needs to be predicted and compensated for. In this paper position control simulation of DC servo motor using Zero Phase Error Tracking Controller (ZPETC) as a feedforward controller, and Internal Model Controllers (IMC) based on Smith predictor with disturbance observer as a feedback controller is performed. The validity of the proposed control scheme is demonstrated by comparing the IMC based on Smith predictor with disturbance observer.

A Study on Adaptive Converter Control Approach for Velocity Control of Electric Motors with Photovoltaic Power Generators (태양광 발전 기반 전동기 속도 제어를 위한 적응형 컨버터 제어 기법에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Sung Won;Kim, Dong Wan;Cho, Hyun Cheol
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
    • /
    • v.65 no.8
    • /
    • pp.1400-1406
    • /
    • 2016
  • This paper presents a new adaptive converter control approach for electric motor systems whose voltage source is excited from photovoltaic (PV) power generators. First, an electric model is represented with dynamic states and output velocity of such DC motor systems. We propose a hybrid converter control law in which a state feedback control is applied as an auxiliary control framework. Moreover, control parameter estimation is derived to realize adaptive converter systems for effective control performance against stochastic PV power excitation in practice. We carry out stability analysis for such converter system by using a well-known eigenvalue theory. Lastly, numerical simulation is conducted to test reliability of the proposed converter control approach and prove its superiority in the control point of view.

On Compensating Nonlinear Distortions of an OFDM System Using an Efficient Adaptive Predistorter (효과적인 적응 전처리왜곡기를 이용한 OFDM 시스템에서의 비선형 왜곡 보상)

  • 강현우;조용수;윤대희
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
    • /
    • v.22 no.4
    • /
    • pp.696-705
    • /
    • 1997
  • This paper presents an efficient adaptive predistortion technique compensating linear and nonlinear distortions caused by high-power amplifier (HPA) with memory in OFDM systems. The efficient adaptive data predistortion techniques proposed for compensation of HPA with memory in single carrier systems cannot be applied to OFDM systems since the possible input levels for HPA is infinite in OFDM systems. Also, previous adaptive predistortion techniques, based on Volterra series modeling, are not suitable for real-time implementation due to high computational burden and slow convergence rate. In the proposed approach, the memoryless HPA preceded by a linear filter in OFDM systems is modeled by the Wiener system which is then precompensated by the proposed adaptive predistorter with a minimum number of filter taps. An adaptive algorithm for adjusting the proposed adaptive predistorter is derived using the stochastic gradient method. It is demonstrated by computer simulation that the performance of OFDM system suffering from nonlinear distortion can be greatly improved by the proposed efficient adaptive predistorter using a small number of filter taps.

  • PDF

A Study on Proto-type Development of BIM based Stochastic Duration Estimation Module (BIM기반 추계학적 공기 예측 모듈 프로토 타입 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jae-Hyun;Yun, Seok-Heon;Paek, Joon-Hong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
    • /
    • 2009.05b
    • /
    • pp.159-162
    • /
    • 2009
  • Today's construction is more various and more complex. Because of that, a lot of uncertain factors are occurred and they related uncertain construction duration. For management complex architecture project, importance of construction schedule management also increased. In previous studies, one of solutions to overcome those problems is suggested. It was BIM based construction simulation process which focused on construction schedule and construction schedule management. But latest process had limited point which has no duration estimation function. So this paper suggested duration estimation method and developed duration estimation module. Duration estimation module developed with current scheduling tool MS Project and their macro function. However, this module has just developed Reinforced Concrete Structure and has to do more development and research.

  • PDF

Nonparametric Test Procedures for Change Point Problems in Scale Parameter

  • Cho, Wan-Hyun;Lee, Jae-Chang
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
    • /
    • v.19 no.2
    • /
    • pp.128-138
    • /
    • 1990
  • In this paper we study the properties of nonparametric tests for testing the null hypothesis of no changes against one sided and two sideds alternatives in scale parameter at unknown point. We first propose two types of nonparametric tests based on linear rank statistics and rank-like statistics, respectively. For these statistics, we drive the asymptotic distributions under the null and contiguous alternatives. The main theoreticla tools used for derivation are the stochastic process representation of the test staistic and the Brownian bridge approximation. We evaluate the Pitman efficiencies of the test for the contiguous alternatives, and also compute empirical power by Monte Carlo simulation.

  • PDF

A Short-term Forecasting of Water Supply Demands by the Transfer Function Model (Transfer Function 모형을 이용한 수도물 수요의 단기예측)

  • Lee, Jae-Joon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
    • /
    • v.10 no.2
    • /
    • pp.88-103
    • /
    • 1996
  • The objective of this study is to develop stochastic and deterministic models which could be used to synthesize water application time series. Adaptive models using mulitivariate ARIMA(Transfer Function Model) are developed for daily urban water use forecasting. The model considers several variables on which water demands is dependent. The dynamic response of water demands to several factors(e.g. weekday, average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, humidity, cloudiness, rainfall) are characterized in the model by transfer functions. Daily water use data of Kumi city in 1992 are employed for model parameter estimation. Meteorological data of Seonsan station are utilized to input variables because Kumi has no records about the meteorological factor data.To determine the main factors influencing water use, autocorrelogram and cross correlogram analysis are performed. Through the identification, parameter estimation, and diagnostic checking of tentative model, final transfer function models by each month are established. The simulation output by transfer function models are compared to a historical data and shows the good agreement.

  • PDF

A Study on Blind Channel Equalization Based on Higher-Order Cumulants

  • Han, Soo-Whan
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
    • /
    • v.7 no.6
    • /
    • pp.781-790
    • /
    • 2004
  • This paper presents a fourth-order cumulants based iterative algorithm for blind channel equalization. It is robust with respect to the existence of heavy Gaussian noise in a channel and does not require the minimum phase characteristic of the channel. In this approach, the transmitted signals at the receiver are over-sampled to ensure the channel described by a full-column rank matrix. It changes a single-input/single-output (SISO) finite-impulse response (FIR) channel to a single-input/multi-output (SIMO) channel. Based on the properties of the fourth-order cumulants of the over-sampled channel outputs, the iterative algorithm is derived to estimate the deconvolution matrix which makes the overall transfer matrix transparent, i.e., it can be reduced to the identity matrix by simple reordering and scaling. Both a closed-form and a stochastic version of the proposed algorithm are tested with three-ray multi-path channels in simulation studies, and their performances are compared with a method based on conventional second-order cumulants. Relatively good results are achieved, even when the transmitted symbols are significantly corrupted with Gaussian noise.

  • PDF

System identification and reliability assessment of an industrial chimney under wind loading

  • Tokuc, M. Orcun;Soyoz, Serdar
    • Wind and Structures
    • /
    • v.27 no.5
    • /
    • pp.283-291
    • /
    • 2018
  • This study presents the reliability assessment of a 100.5 m tall reinforced concrete chimney at a glass factory under wind loading by using vibration-based identified modal values. Ambient vibration measurements were recorded and modal values such as frequencies, shapes and damping ratios were identified by using Enhanced Frequency Domain Decomposition (EFDD) method. Afterwards, Finite Element Model (FEM) of the chimney was verified based on identified modal parameters. Reliability assessment of the chimney under wind loading was performed by obtaining the exceedance probability of demand to capacity distribution. Demand distribution of the chimney was developed under repetitive seeds of multivariate stochastic wind fields generated along the height of chimney. Capacity distribution of the chimney was developed by Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, it was found that reliability of the chimney is lower than code suggested limit values.

Thermal Transfer Analysis of Micro Flow Sensor using by Markov Chain MCM (Markov 연쇄 MCM을 이용한 마이크로 흐름센서 열전달 해석)

  • Cha, Kyung-Hwan;Kim, Tae-Yong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
    • /
    • v.12 no.12
    • /
    • pp.2253-2258
    • /
    • 2008
  • To design micro flow sensor varying depending on temperature of driving heater in the detector of Oxide semiconductor, Markov chain MCM(MCMCM), which is a kind of stochastic and microscopic method, was introduced. The formulation for the thermal transfer equation based on the FDM to obtain the MCMCM solution was performed and investigated, in steady state case. MCMCM simulation was successfully applied, so that its application can be expanded to a three-dimensional model with inhomogeneous material and complicated boundary.