• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.95-102
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• 2013

This paper presents a stochastic driver behavior modeling framework which takes into account both individual and general driving characteristics as one aggregate model. Patterns of individual driving styles are modeled using a Dirichlet process mixture model, as a non-parametric Bayesian approach which automatically selects the optimal number of model components to fit sparse observations of each particular driver's behavior. In addition, general or background driving patterns are also captured with a Gaussian mixture model using a reasonably large amount of development data from several drivers. By combining both probability distributions, the aggregate driver-dependent model can better emphasize driving characteristics of each particular driver, while also backing off to exploit general driving behavior in cases of unseen/unmatched parameter spaces from individual training observations. The proposed driver behavior model was employed to anticipate pedal operation behavior during car-following maneuvers involving several drivers on the road. The experimental results showed advantages of the combined model over the model adaptation approach.

• Advances in aircraft and spacecraft science
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.263-278
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• 2022

The time-varying structural reliability of an aeroelastic launch vehicle subjected to stochastic parameters is investigated. The launch vehicle structure is under the combined action of several stochastic loads that include aerodynamics, thrust as well as internal combustion pressure. The launch vehicle's main body structural flexibility is modeled via the normal mode shapes of a free-free Euler beam, where the aerodynamic loadings on the vehicle are due to force on each incremental section of the vehicle. The rigid and elastic coupled nonlinear equations of motion are derived following the Lagrangian approach that results in a complete aeroelastic simulation for the prediction of the instantaneous launch vehicle rigid-body motion as well as the body elastic deformations. Reliability analysis has been performed based on two distinct limit state functions, defined as the maximum launch vehicle tip elastic deformation and also the maximum allowable stress occurring along the launch vehicle total length. In this fashion, the time-dependent reliability problem can be converted into an equivalent time-invariant reliability problem. Subsequently, the first-order reliability method, as well as the Monte Carlo simulation schemes, are employed to determine and verify the aeroelastic launch vehicle dynamic failure probability for a given flight time.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 3th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.393-399
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• 2009

This paper introduces an automated tool named Advanced Stochastic Schedule Simulation System (AS4). The system automatically integrates CPM schedule data exported from Primavera Project Planner (P3) and historical activity duration data obtained from a project data warehouse, computes the best fit probability distribution functions (PDFs) of historical activity durations, assigns the PDFs identified to respective activities, computes the optimum number of simulation runs, simulates the schedule network for the optimum number of simulation runs, and estimates the best fit PDF of project completion times (PCTs). AS4 improves the reliability of simulation-based scheduling by effectively dealing with the uncertainties of the activities' durations, increases the usability of the schedule data obtained from commercial CPM software, and effectively handles the variability of the PCTs by finding the best fit PDF of PCTs. It is designed as an easy-to-use computer tool programmed in MATLAB. AS4 encourages the use of simulation-based scheduling because it is simple to use, it simplifies the tedious and burdensome process involved in finding the PDFs of the many activities' durations and in assigning the PDFs to the many activities of a new network under modeling, and it does away with the normality assumptions used by most simulation-based scheduling systems in modeling PCTs.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.53-62
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• 2009

실 기동 훈련을 기반으로 획득한 데이터는 전투 또는 워게임 모델링 및 시뮬레이션에 중요한 역할을 지니게 된다. 특히 이들 데이터는 무기체계 분석을 위한 중요한 입력자료로 활용하게 된다. 현존하는 분석모델들은 사격시간간격의 평균값을 상수로 지정하여 적용하여 왔으나 사격시간간격은 기존 확률분포 또는 경험분포로 적합하여 사용함이 보다 현실적이라고 할 수 있다. 실제 전장의 데이터를 획득하기 어려운 여건이므로 실기동 훈련으로 획득된 경험 데이터를 활용할 수 있는 방법을 제시한다. 본 연구는 확률과정을 따르는 전투상황을 보다 근접하게 모의할 수 있는 새로운 접근방법 및 기법을 연구하고 비교한다. 이 연구는 다양한 혼합 무기체계, 적정 전투의 규모, 그리고 전술적 측면 등을 포함하는 향후 연구과제의 필요성을 제기하면서 이를 위한 첫 번째 단계에 해당하는 기초연구이다.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제30권4호
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• pp.421-432
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• 2022

Regarding the high significance of correct pan evaporation modeling, this study introduces two novel neuro-metaheuristic approaches to improve the accuracy of prediction for this parameter. Vortex search algorithms (VSA), sunflower optimization (SFO), and stochastic fractal search (SFS) are integrated with a multilayer perceptron neural network to create the VSA-MLPNN, SFO-MLPNN, and SFS-MLPNN hybrids. The climate data of Arcata-Eureka station (operated by the US environmental protection agency) belonging to the years 1986-1989 and the year 1990 are used for training and testing the models, respectively. Trying different configurations revealed that the best performance of the VSA, SFO, and SFS is obtained for the population size of 400, 300, and 100, respectively. The results were compared with a conventionally trained MLPNN to examine the effect of the metaheuristic algorithms. Overall, all four models presented a very reliable simulation. However, the SFS-MLPNN (mean absolute error, MAE = 0.0997 and Pearson correlation coefficient, R_P = 0.9957) was the most accurate model, followed by the VSA-MLPNN (MAE = 0.1058 and R_P = 0.9945), conventional MLPNN (MAE = 0.1062 and R_P = 0.9944), and SFO-MLPNN (MAE = 0.1305 and R_P = 0.9914). The findings indicated that employing the VSA and SFS results in improving the accuracy of the neural network in the prediction of pan evaporation. Hence, the suggested models are recommended for future practical applications.

• 한국국방경영분석학회지
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.155-162
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• 1979

GERT modeling is in a dynamic stage of development. One of the most exciting and useful new developments in GERT modeling and Simulation is the modeling technology and computer package called Q-GERT. As the name implies, this provides the capability to analyze complex networks of queueing systems. The modeling approach is quite similar to GERT, but includes queue nodes called 'Select' nodes, which allow a considerable amount of logic to be included in the analysis of complex networks of multichannel, multiphase queueing systems should find the Q-OERT package of considerable interest.

• 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.508-517
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• 2003

본 논문에서는 쌍직교 웨이브릿 영역에서 워터마크를 삽입할 수 있는 연속 부대역 양자화 및 스토케스틱 다해상도 특성을 갖는 지각 모델을 제안한다. 적응 워터마킹 알고리즘을 갖는 지각모델은 보다 강인한 워터마크 은닉을 위한 방법으로 연속 부대역 양자화(successive subband quantization: SSQ)에 의해서 텍스쳐 및 에지 영역에 삽입한다. 워터마크 삽입은 국부 영상 특성을 갖는 NVF(noise visibility function)함수에 의해 계산된다. 이 방법은 워터마크가 노이즈 특성을 갖기 때문에 영상의 통계적 특성에 기초한 비정상상태(non-stationary state) 가우스 모델과 정상상태(stationary state) 일반화 가우스(generalized Gaussian: GG)모델을 이용한다. 정상상태 GG모델의 삽입은 다해상도 내의 각 부대역별 분산과 형상계수(shape parameter)를 사용한다. 형상계수를 추정하기 위하여 모멘트 정합 방법을 사용한다. 비정상상태 가우스 모델은 각 부대역의 국부 평균 및 분산을 이용한다. 실험결과 우수한 비가시성과 강인성을 확인하였으며, 공격에 대한 실험으로 Stirmark 3.1 benchmark test를 수행하였다.

• ETRI Journal
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• 제40권1호
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• pp.39-50
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• 2018

More people prefer using rail traffic for travel or for commuting owing to its convenience and flexibility. The railway scenario has become an important communication scenario in the fifth generation era. The communication system should be designed to support high-data-rate demands with seamless connectivity at a high mobility. In this paper, the channel characteristics are studied and modeled for the railway tunnel scenario with straight and curved route shapes. On the basis of measurements using the "Mobile Hotspot Network" system, a three-dimensional ray tracer (RT) is calibrated and validated for the target scenarios. More channel characteristics are explored via RT simulations at 25.25 GHz with a 500-MHz bandwidth. The key channel parameters are extracted, provided, and incorporated into a 3rd-Generation-Partnership-Project-like stochastic channel generator. The necessary channel information can be practically realized, which can support the link-level and system-level design of the communication system in similar scenarios.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제31권2호
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• pp.113-130
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• 2023

Hybrid simulation (HS) has attracted community attention in recent years as an efficient and effective experimental technique for structural performance evaluation in size-limited laboratories. Traditional hybrid simulations usually take deterministic properties for their numerical substructures therefore could not account for inherent uncertainties within the engineering structures to provide probabilistic performance assessment. Reliable structural performance evaluation, therefore, calls for stochastic hybrid simulation (SHS) to explicitly account for substructure uncertainties. The experimental design of SHS is explored in this study to account for uncertainties within analytical substructures. Both computational simulation and laboratory experiments are conducted to evaluate the pseudo-random Sobol sequence for the experimental design of SHS. Meta-modeling through polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is established from a computational simulation of a nonlinear single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) structure to evaluate the influence of nonlinear behavior and ground motions uncertainties. A series of hybrid simulations are further conducted in the laboratory to validate the findings from computational analysis. It is shown that the Sobol sequence provides a good starting point for the experimental design of stochastic hybrid simulation. However, nonlinear structural behavior involving stiffness and strength degradation could significantly increase the number of hybrid simulations to acquire accurate statistical estimation for the structural response of interests. Compared with the statistical moments calculated directly from hybrid simulations in the laboratory, the meta-model through PCE gives more accurate estimation, therefore, providing a more effective way for uncertainty quantification.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.38-49
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• 2012

In this study, we analyze statistical characteristics of influent water quality in Daejeon waste water treatment plant and apply a stochastic model for data generation. In the analysis, the influent water quality data from year 2003 to 2008, except for year 2006, are used. Among water quality variables, we find strong correlations between BOD and T-N; T-N and T-P; BOD and T-P; $COD_{Mn}$ and T-P; and BOD and $COD_{Mn}$. We also find that different water quality variables follow different theoretical probability distribution functions, which also depends on whether the seasonal cycle is removed. Finally, we generate the influent water quality data using the multi-season 1st Markov model (Thomas-Fiering model). With model parameters calibrated for the period 2003~2005, the generated data for 2007~2008 are well compared with observed data showing good agreement in general. BOD and T-N are underestimated by the stochastic model. This is mainly due to the statistical difference in observed data itself between two periods of 2003~2005 and 2007~2008. Therefore, we expect the stochastic model can be applied with more confidence in the case that the data follows stationary pattern.