• Title/Summary/Keyword: stochastic generation

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Resource Use Efficiency of Electricity Sector in the Maldives

  • SHUMAIS, Mohamed
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.111-121
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    • 2020
  • The study measures the resource use efficiency of diesel based power generation in the Maldives and analyses factors which influence efficiency levels. Stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) technique is applied to data on 30 plants over two year period from 2016 to 2017. The study finds that technical efficiency scores varies from 0.44 to 0.98 across power plants. About 33 percent of the plants have scores below the mean technical efficiency score of 0.87. Empirical results indicate ownership and use of solar photovoltaic (PV) have an influence on improving efficiency levels. Privately owned power plants in resort islands obtained higher technical efficiency scores compared to public and community owned power plants. This is a significant finding as the first study that used power plants in tourist sector in a comparative study. Size of the power plants was not found significant, but relatively small installed capacities can also be efficient. This finding is important because in many inhabited islands installed capacities remain oversized compared to the load. The benchmarking exercise offers model power plants that are relatively efficient, for other power plants and policy makers in small islands to learn from.

Application of FMECA with Stochastic Approach to Reliability-Centered Maintenance of Electric Power Plants in Korean Power Systems (RCM 수립을 위해 발전설비의 고장확률을 고려한 확률론적 FMECA 평가 기법)

  • Joo, Jae-Myung;Lee, Seung-Hyuk;Kim, Jin-O;Lee, Hyo-Sang
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2006.07a
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    • pp.196-197
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    • 2006
  • Preventive maintenance can avail the generation utilities to reduce cost and gain more profit in a competitive supply-side power market. So, it is necessary to perform reliability analysis on the systems in which reliability is essential. In this paper, RCM (Reliability -Centered Maintenance) analytical method is adopted using real historical failure data in Korean power plants. Therefore, the reliability -based Probability model for predicting the failures of components in the power plant is also established, and application to FMECA(Failure Mode Effects and Critical Analysis) consideration of failure probability, Based on the weighting ranking of generating equipments which status to be probability estimation by FMECA. The FMECA is an engineering analysis and a core activity performed by reliability engineers to review the effects of probable failure modes of generating equipments and assemblies of the power system on system performance. The results of this paper show that application of FMECA with stochastic approach to the preventive maintenance can efficiently avail decreasing the cost on maintenance and hence improve the total benefit.

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A study on the determination for stochastic reservoir capacity (추계학적(推計學的) 저수용량(貯水容量) 결정(決定)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Choi, Han-Kuy
    • Journal of Industrial Technology
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    • v.3
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    • pp.69-74
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    • 1983
  • For the determination of a reservoir capacity Rippl's mass-curve method has long been used with the past river flow data assuming the same flow records will be repeated in the future. This study aims to find out a better method for determining the reservoir capacity by employing the analytical theory based on the stochastic process. For the present study the synthetic generation methods of Thomas-Fiering type was used to synthetically generate 50 years of monthly river inflows to three single-purpose reservoirs and three multi-purpose reservoirs. The generated sequences of monthly flows were analyzed based on the range concept. With the optimum operation rule of the reservoirs as the one which maximizes the water-use downstream the waterrelease from the reservoir was determined and with due consideration to the mean inflows and the range of monthly flows the required reservoirs capacity was stochastically determined. It was possible to repersent the so-determined reservoir capacity in terms of the mean monthly inflows and the number of subseries in the determination of ranges. It is suggested that the result obtained in this study would be applied to approximately estimate, in the stage of preliminary design, the required capacity of a reservoir in question with the limited information such as the mean monthly inflow and the period of reservoir operation.

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Call Admission Control SRN Modeling of IEEE 802.16e (IEEE 802.16e의 호 수락 제어 SRN 모델링)

  • Kim, Kyung-Min;Ro, Chul-Woo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2007.10a
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    • pp.355-358
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    • 2007
  • In wireless mobile communication systems, priority of voice service through high speed data and multimedia transmission requires increased service diversification. Research is being carried out in this environment, on the call admission control techniques to guarantee the diversified service's QoS. SRN (Stochastic Reward Net) is an extended version of Petri nets, well know modeling and analysis tool. In this paper, we develop SRN call admission control model considering the 4 classes of services in the 4th generation IEE 802.16e mobile communication Technology.

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The Effect of Deterministic and Stochastic VTG Schemes on the Application of Backpropagation of Multivariate Time Series Prediction (시계열예측에 대한 역전파 적용에 대한 결정적, 추계적 가상항 기법의 효과)

  • Jo, Tae-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2001.10a
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    • pp.535-538
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    • 2001
  • Since 1990s, many literatures have shown that connectionist models, such as back propagation, recurrent network, and RBF (Radial Basis Function) outperform the traditional models, MA (Moving Average), AR (Auto Regressive), and ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) in time series prediction. Neural based approaches to time series prediction require the enough length of historical measurements to generate the enough number of training patterns. The more training patterns, the better the generalization of MLP is. The researches about the schemes of generating artificial training patterns and adding to the original ones have been progressed and gave me the motivation of developing VTG schemes in 1996. Virtual term is an estimated measurement, X(t+0.5) between X(t) and X(t+1), while the given measurements in the series are called actual terms. VTG (Virtual Tern Generation) is the process of estimating of X(t+0.5), and VTG schemes are the techniques for the estimation of virtual terms. In this paper, the alternative VTG schemes to the VTG schemes proposed in 1996 will be proposed and applied to multivariate time series prediction. The VTG schemes proposed in 1996 are called deterministic VTG schemes, while the alternative ones are called stochastic VTG schemes in this paper.

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Impact Analysis of the Power Generation Capacities of New and Renewable Energy on Peak Electricity Supply (신·재생에너지 전원이 피크타임 전력 공급에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Suduk;Kim, Yungsan
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.269-296
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    • 2006
  • With the concern of the potential problems which can be observed in terms of the power supply of renewable energies, we need to analyze the impact of additional power generation capacities of renewable energy sources on peak load. Each renewable energy sources are dependent upon wind speed, solar radiation, head differences caused by lunar calendar. Considering that these exogenous renewable energy sources follow their own stochastic distributions, we analyze the probability distribution of the impact of each renewable energy power supply on peak load. As a conclusion, we note that traditional tools used for the analysis of power supply such as capacity factors are no longer appropriate for the analysis of renewable energy sources in that perspective.

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Use of Monte Carlo code MCS for multigroup cross section generation for fast reactor analysis

  • Nguyen, Tung Dong Cao;Lee, Hyunsuk;Lee, Deokjung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.9
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    • pp.2788-2802
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    • 2021
  • Multigroup cross section (MG XS) generation by the UNIST in-house Monte Carlo (MC) code MCS for fast reactor analysis using nodal diffusion codes is reported. The feasibility of the approach is quantified for two sodium fast reactors (SFRs) specified in the OECD/NEA SFR benchmark: a 1000 MWth metal-fueled SFR (MET-1000) and a 3600 MWth oxide-fueled SFR (MOX-3600). The accuracy of a few-group XSs generated by MCS is verified using another MC code, Serpent 2. The neutronic steady-state whole-core problem is analyzed using MCS/RAST-K with a 24-group XS set. Various core parameters of interest (core keff, power profiles, and reactivity feedback coefficients) are obtained using both MCS/RAST-K and MCS. A code-to-code comparison indicates excellent agreement between the nodal diffusion solution and stochastic solution; the error in the core keff is less than 110 pcm, the root-mean-square error of the power profiles is within 1.0%, and the error of the reactivity feedback coefficients is within three standard deviations. Furthermore, using the super-homogenization-corrected XSs improves the prediction accuracy of the control rod worth and power profiles with all rods in. Therefore, the results demonstrate that employing the MCS MG XSs for the nodal diffusion code is feasible for high-fidelity analyses of fast reactors.

Reservoir Operating System Using Sampling Stochastic Dynamic Programming for the Han River Basin (표본 추계학적 동적계획법을 사용한 한강수계 저수지 운영시스템 개발)

  • Eum, Hyung-Il;Park, Myung-Ky
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.67-79
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    • 2010
  • Korea water resources corporation (K-Water) has developed the real-time water resources management system for the Nakdong and the Geum River basin to efficiently operate multi-purpose dams in the basins. This study has extended to the Han River basin for providing an effective ending target storage of a month to the real-time water resources management system using Sampling Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SSDP), consequently increasing the efficiency of the reservoir system. The optimization model were developed for three reservoirs, named Soyang, Chungju, and Hwacheon, with high priority in terms of the amounts of effective capacity and water supply for the basin. The number of storage state variable for each dam to set an optimization problem has been assigned from the results of sensitivity analysis. Compared with the K-water operating policy with the target water supply elevations, the optimization model suggested in this study showed that the shortfalls are decreased by 37.22 MCM/year for the required water demands in the basin, even increasing 171 GWh in hydro electronic power generation. In addition, the result of a reservoir operating system during the drawdown period applied to real situation demonstrates that additional releases for water quality or hydro electronic power generation would be possible during the drawdown period between 2007 and 2008. On the basis of these simulation results, the applicability of the SSDP model and the reservoir operating system is proved. Therefore, the more efficient reservoir operation can be achieved if the reservoir operating system is extended further to other Korean basins.

A Comparative Study of Monte Carlo and Autoregressive Methods for the Synthetic Generation of river Flows (하천유량의 모의발생을 위한 Monte Carlo 방법과 Autoregressive 방법의 비교)

  • 윤용남;이은태
    • Water for future
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.335-345
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    • 1985
  • The purpose of stochastic models for synthetic generation of river flows based on the short-term observed data is to provide abundant input data to the water resources systems of which the system performance and operation policy are to be determined beforehand. Among many of such models the Monte Carlo Method of synthetic generation, which is usually known to be appropriate for annual data generation, is employed to check if it can be applied for the generation of monthly flows. For the purpose of comparisons the statistical parameters of the generated monthly flows by Monte Carlo model based on the appropriate probability distribution for each month were compared with those of the generated flows by Thoms-Fiering multiseason model and with those of the observed monthly flows. On the other hand, the statistical parameters of the annual river flows obtained by adding the generated monthly flows year by year based on the Monte Carlo and Thomas-Fiering models were compared with those of the annual flows generated directly by annual Monte Carlo model with reference to those for the observed annual river flows. Based on the above comparative studies, the discussions are made and conclusions derived.

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Korean Sentence Generation Using Phoneme-Level LSTM Language Model (한국어 음소 단위 LSTM 언어모델을 이용한 문장 생성)

  • Ahn, SungMahn;Chung, Yeojin;Lee, Jaejoon;Yang, Jiheon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.71-88
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    • 2017
  • Language models were originally developed for speech recognition and language processing. Using a set of example sentences, a language model predicts the next word or character based on sequential input data. N-gram models have been widely used but this model cannot model the correlation between the input units efficiently since it is a probabilistic model which are based on the frequency of each unit in the training set. Recently, as the deep learning algorithm has been developed, a recurrent neural network (RNN) model and a long short-term memory (LSTM) model have been widely used for the neural language model (Ahn, 2016; Kim et al., 2016; Lee et al., 2016). These models can reflect dependency between the objects that are entered sequentially into the model (Gers and Schmidhuber, 2001; Mikolov et al., 2010; Sundermeyer et al., 2012). In order to learning the neural language model, texts need to be decomposed into words or morphemes. Since, however, a training set of sentences includes a huge number of words or morphemes in general, the size of dictionary is very large and so it increases model complexity. In addition, word-level or morpheme-level models are able to generate vocabularies only which are contained in the training set. Furthermore, with highly morphological languages such as Turkish, Hungarian, Russian, Finnish or Korean, morpheme analyzers have more chance to cause errors in decomposition process (Lankinen et al., 2016). Therefore, this paper proposes a phoneme-level language model for Korean language based on LSTM models. A phoneme such as a vowel or a consonant is the smallest unit that comprises Korean texts. We construct the language model using three or four LSTM layers. Each model was trained using Stochastic Gradient Algorithm and more advanced optimization algorithms such as Adagrad, RMSprop, Adadelta, Adam, Adamax, and Nadam. Simulation study was done with Old Testament texts using a deep learning package Keras based the Theano. After pre-processing the texts, the dataset included 74 of unique characters including vowels, consonants, and punctuation marks. Then we constructed an input vector with 20 consecutive characters and an output with a following 21st character. Finally, total 1,023,411 sets of input-output vectors were included in the dataset and we divided them into training, validation, testsets with proportion 70:15:15. All the simulation were conducted on a system equipped with an Intel Xeon CPU (16 cores) and a NVIDIA GeForce GTX 1080 GPU. We compared the loss function evaluated for the validation set, the perplexity evaluated for the test set, and the time to be taken for training each model. As a result, all the optimization algorithms but the stochastic gradient algorithm showed similar validation loss and perplexity, which are clearly superior to those of the stochastic gradient algorithm. The stochastic gradient algorithm took the longest time to be trained for both 3- and 4-LSTM models. On average, the 4-LSTM layer model took 69% longer training time than the 3-LSTM layer model. However, the validation loss and perplexity were not improved significantly or became even worse for specific conditions. On the other hand, when comparing the automatically generated sentences, the 4-LSTM layer model tended to generate the sentences which are closer to the natural language than the 3-LSTM model. Although there were slight differences in the completeness of the generated sentences between the models, the sentence generation performance was quite satisfactory in any simulation conditions: they generated only legitimate Korean letters and the use of postposition and the conjugation of verbs were almost perfect in the sense of grammar. The results of this study are expected to be widely used for the processing of Korean language in the field of language processing and speech recognition, which are the basis of artificial intelligence systems.