• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.1-14
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• 2015

This study utilizes Monte Carlo simulation to forecast the time charter rate of vessels, the three-month Libor interest rate, and the ship demolition price, to mitigate future uncertainties involving these factors. The simulation was performed 10,000 times to obtain an exact result. For the empirical analysis - based on considerations in ordering ships in 2010-a comparison between the Monte Carlo simulation-based stochastic discounted cash flow (DCF) method and traditional DCF methods was made. The analysis revealed that the net present value obtained through Monte Carlo simulation was lower than that obtained via regular DCF methods, alerting the owners to risks and preventing them from placing injudicious orders for ships. This research has implications in reducing the uncertainties that future shipping markets face, through the use of a stochastic DCF approach with relevant variables and probability methods.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.30 no.5
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• pp.449-457
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• 1997

This study attempts to develop a stochastic-dynamic real-time flow forecasting model for an event-orient watershed storage function model (SFM), which has been used as an official flood computation model in Korea, and to evaluate its performance for real-time flow forecast. The study area is the 747.5$\textrm{km}^2$ Hwecheon basin with outlet at Gaejin and the 8 single flow events during 1983-1986 are selected for comparison and verification of model parameter and model performance. The used model parameters in this study are the same values on field work. It is shown that results from the existing model highly depend on the events, but those from the developed model are stable and well predict the flows for the selected flood events. The coefficient of model efficiency between observed and predicted flows for the events was above 0.90. It is concluded that the developed model that can consider model and observation uncertainties during a flood event is feasible and produces reliable real-time flow forecasts on the area.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.277-294
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• 2012

The aim of the study is to determine the modal parameters of a prototype damaged arch dam by operational modal analysis (OMA) method for some damage scenarios. For this purpose, a prototype arch dam-reservoir-foundation model is constructed under laboratory conditions. Ambient vibration tests on the arch dam model are performed to identify the modal parameters such as natural frequency, mode shape and damping ratio. The tests are conducted for four test-case scenarios: an undamaged dam with empty reservoir, two different damaged dams with empty reservoirs, and a damaged dam with full reservoir. Loading simulating random impact effects is applied on the dam to crack. Cracks and fractures occurred at the middle of the upper part of the dams and distributed through the abutments. Sensitivity accelerometers are placed on the dams' crests to collect signals for measurements. Operational modal analysis software processes the signals collected from the ambient vibration tests, and enhanced frequency domain decomposition and stochastic subspace identification techniques are used to estimate modal parameters of the dams. The modal parameters are obtained to establish a basis for comparison of the results of two techniques for each damage case. Results show that approximately 35-40% difference exists between the natural frequencies obtained from Case 1 and Case 4. The natural frequencies of the dam considerably decrease with increasing cracks. However, observation shows that the filled reservoir slightly affected modal parameters of the dam after severe cracking. The mode shapes obtained are symmetrical and anti-symmetrical. Apparently, mode shapes in Case 1 represent the probable responses of arch dams more accurately. Also, damping ratio show an increase when cracking increases.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.17 no.9
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• pp.127-133
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• 2019

A callable product is one of service derivatives using options to generate demand and reduce risk. This paper compares two booking admission controls for callable products, the online and the batch admission controls. To this end, the paper computes the optimal booking policy by using the backward dynamic programming and the stochastic optimization method. Intuitively, the provider should outperform under the batch control by utilizing demand information. The contribution of the paper is to show that the two controls are equivalent in terms of the booking strategy and the expected profit, which enables the provider to keep its current control method. The paper develops the closed-form solutions for the three fare classes. The future work is to extend the result to the model with complicated fare structures.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.229-243
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• 2023

This study analyzes the response of a tall building with an H-shaped cross-section when subjected to wind loading generated by the same H-shape. As normative standards usually adopt regular geometries for determining the wind loading, this paper shows unpublished results which compares results of the dynamic response of H-shaped buildings with the response of simplified section buildings. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is employed to determine the steady wind load on the H-shaped building. The CFD models are validated by comparison with wind tunnel test data for the k-ε and k-ω models of turbulence. Transient wind loading is determined using the Synthetic Wind Method. A new methodology is presented that combines Stochastic and CFD methods. In addition, time-history dynamic structural analysis is performed using the HHT method for a period of 60 seconds on finite element models. First, the along-wind response is studied for wind speed variations. The wind speeds of 28, 36, 42, and 50 m/s at 0° case are considered. Subsequently, the dynamic response of the building is studied for wind loads at 0°, 45°, and 90° with a wind speed of 42 m/s, which approximates the point of resonance between gusts of wind and the structure. The response values associated with the first two directions for the H-shaped building are smaller than those for the R-shaped (Equivalent Rectangular Shape) one. However, the displacements of the H-shaped building associated with the latter wind load are larger.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.149-163
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• 2023

One of the main design parameters traditionally utilized in projects of geotechnical engineering is the uniaxial compressive strength. The present paper employed three artificial intelligence methods, i.e., the stochastic fractal search (SFS), the multi-verse optimization (MVO), and the vortex search algorithm (VSA), in order to determine the compressive strength of concrete (CSC). For the same reason, 1030 concrete specimens were subjected to compressive strength tests. According to the obtained laboratory results, the fly ash, cement, water, slag, coarse aggregates, fine aggregates, and SP were subjected to tests as the input parameters of the model in order to decide the optimum input configuration for the estimation of the compressive strength. The performance was evaluated by employing three criteria, i.e., the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and the determination coefficient (R²). The evaluation of the error criteria and the determination coefficient obtained from the above three techniques indicates that the SFS-MLP technique outperformed the MVO-MLP and VSA-MLP methods. The developed artificial neural network models exhibit higher amounts of errors and lower correlation coefficients in comparison with other models. Nonetheless, the use of the stochastic fractal search algorithm has resulted in considerable enhancement in precision and accuracy of the evaluations conducted through the artificial neural network and has enhanced its performance. According to the results, the utilized SFS-MLP technique showed a better performance in the estimation of the compressive strength of concrete (R²=0.99932 and 0.99942, and RMSE=0.32611 and 0.24922). The novelty of our study is the use of a large dataset composed of 1030 entries and optimization of the learning scheme of the neural prediction model via a data distribution of a 20:80 testing-to-training ratio.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2008.04a
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• pp.27-32
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• 2008

The laminated composite materials have been applied to various mechanical structures due to their high performance to weight ratios. In this study, we suggest a stochastic finite element scheme for the probabilistic analysis of the composite laminated plates. The composite materials consist of two different materials which constitute the matrix and fiber. The material properties in the major and minor directions are determined depending on the volume fraction of these two materials. In this study, the elastic modulus and shear modulus are considered as random and the effect of these random properties on the behavior of the composite plate is investigated. We adopt the weighted integral scheme in the formulation, which has been recognized as the most accurate method in the statistical methodologies. For verification of the proposed scheme, Monte Carlo analysis is also performed for the comparison with the proposed scheme.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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• 2007.04a
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• pp.33-36
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• 2007

최근에 인공지능 분야에서는, 국내외적으로 강화학습(reinforcement learning)에 관한 관심이 크게 증폭되고 있다. 강화학습의 최근 경향을 살펴보면, 크게 가치함수를 직접 활용하는 방법(value function-based methods), 제어 전략에 대한 탐색을 활용하는 방법(policy search methods), 그리고 액터-크리틱 방법(actor-critic methods)의 세가지 방향으로 발전하고 있음을 알 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 이중 세 번째 부류인 액터-크리틱 방법 중 NAC(natural actor-critic) 기법의 한 종류인 RLS-NAC(recursive least-squares based natural actor-critic) 알고리즘을 다양한 트레이스 감쇠계수를 사용하여 연속제어입력(real-valued control inputs)으로 제어되는 Kimura의 기는 로봇에 대해 적용해보고, 그 성능을 기존의 SGA(stochastic gradient ascent) 알고리즘을 이용하여 학습한 경우와 비교해보도록 한다.

• Journal of Korean Association for Spatial Structures
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• v.2 no.4 s.6
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• pp.29-36
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• 2002

The responses of composite laminated beams modeled with finite element and excited by stochastic loading are studied. The cantilevered laminated beam having a 5 ply configuration is considered. The beam is 1m long, 0.1m wide, and 0.02m thick, yielding a length to thickness ratio of L/h=50. The laminated beams was assumed to be made of Born Epoxy. The four nodes at the free end of the cantilever were loaded with identical zero-mean white noise excitations. Stress and failure analysis loaded with identical zero-mean white noise excitations is carried out. Along with the obtained results, comparison and discussion are presented for the cases of symmetric-ply, antisymmetric-ply, angle-ply, and cross-ply laminated beams.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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• v.4 no.5
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• pp.130-141
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• 1996

Numerical study of a confined, swirling, isothermal and spray-combusting flows has been presented. The pressure-velocity coupling in the Eulerian gas-phase equation is handled by the improved PISO algorithm. The droplet dispersion by turbulence is introduced by a Stochastic Separated Flow(SSF) model. The k-$\varepsilon$ turbulence model and the eddy dissipation model are employed to account for turbulence-combustion interaction. The detailed comparison with experimental data has been made for the isothermal jet swirling flows and the nearly monodisperse spray-combusting flow in the swirl combustor.