• 응용통계연구
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• 제29권4호
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• pp.581-594
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• 2016

본 논문은 이노베이션 상태공간모형을 근간으로 기존의 지수평활법을 포괄할 수 있는 다중 계절형 모형을 소개한다. 특히 이 모형은, 기존 모형의 한계를 극복하고 동일한 계절 내의 다양성을 표현할 수 있도록 계절 성분을 행렬로 표현하는 정교한 구조를 가지고 있다. 이런 구조를 이용하면 비슷한 패턴을 가지는 계절 성분의 모수를 그룹별로 분류할 수 있다. 따라서, 다중 계절형 모형은 모수절약 원칙을 달성할 수 있으며 모형의 해석이 용이한 장점을 가지고 있을 뿐만 아니라, 잠재적으로 임의의 개수의 계절성도 수용 가능하다. 본 연구에서는 다중 계절형 모형을 이용하여 시간 단위로 관측된 한국 전력 수요량을 분석하고 예측한다. 특히, 시간별 전력 수요량의 계절성은 1일 및 1주일의 두 가지로 고려되었고 이를 토대로 유사한 요일들은 공통 계절로 그룹화하였다. 모형의 예측 성능을 평가하기 위하여 기존 지수평활법의 예측 결과와 비교하였다. 그 결과, 다중 계절형 모형이 기존 지수평활법보다 예측력이 우수함을 확인하였다.

• 공학논문집
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.89-107
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• 2004

본 연구는 DRASTIC 모델에 구소선밀도, 토지이용 인자를 추가한 수정 DRASTIC 모델을 개발하여 경기도 화남2지구의 지하수오염 가능성을 예측하고자 하였다. 우리나라의 수리지질 환경에서 대수층은 대부분 암반 대수층인 점을 고려했을 때, 구조선밀도는 지하수 및 오염물질 유동에 직접적인 영향을 미치고, 토지이용은 점오염원 혹은 비점오염원의 영향을 간접적으로 반영할 수 있기 때문이다. 통계분석을 위하여 각 인자별 격자 레이어를 생성하고, 각각의 상관계수를 분석함으로써 신뢰도 여부를 판단하였다. 최종 결과물인 종합오염현황도는 수정 DRASTIC Potential과 여러 가지 오염원의 발생 부하량 값을 논리비교함으로써 수리지질학적인 측면에서의 오염가능성 지역과 수질측면에서의 오염가능성 지역을 예측할 수 있는 방안을 제시할 수 있었다.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제17권6호
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• pp.2781-2785
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• 2016

Background: Matric metalloproteinase (MMP) 13 gene expression is increased in esophageal squamous cell carcinomas (ESCCs) and associated with increasing tumor invasion, lymph node involvement and decreased survival rates. Levels of the circulating enzyme may be elevated and used as a marker of tumor progression. In this study, clinical application of MMP-13 serum levels was evaluated for early detection, prediction of prognosis and survival time of ESCC patients. Materials and Methods: Serum levels of MMP13 were determined by ELISA in 66 ESCC patients prior of any treatment and 54 healthy controls for comparison with clinicopathological data through statistical analysis with Man Whitney U and Log-Rank tests. In addition, clinical value of MMP13 levels for diagnosis was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) test. Results: The serum level of MMP-13 in patients (>250 pg/ml) was significantly higher than in the control group (<100 pg/ml) (p value=0.004). Also the results showed a significant correlation between MMP-13 serum levels with tumor stage (p value = 0.003), depth of tumor invasion (p value=0.008), involvement of lymph nodes (p value = 0.011), tumor size (p value = 0.018) and survival time. While there were no significant correlation with grade and location of tumors. ROC analysis showed that MMP-13 level is an accurate diagnostic marker especially to differentiate pre-invasive/ invasive lesions from normal controls (sensitivity and specificity: 100%). Conclusions: These findings indicate a potential clinical significance of serum MMP13 measurement for early detection and prognostic assessment in ESCC patients.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제17권12호
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• pp.5229-5235
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• 2016

Prostate cancer (PCa) remains one of the most widespread and perplexing of all human malignancies. Assessment of gene expression is thought to have an important impact on cancer diagnosis, prognosis and therapeutic decisions. In this context, we explored combined expression of PCa related target genes AMACR and PCA3 in 126 formalin fixed paraffin embedded prostate tissues (FFPE) from Moroccan patients, using quantitative real time reverse transcription-PCR (RT-qPCR). This quantification required data normalization accomplished using stably expressed reference genes (RGs). A panel of twelve RG was assessed, data being analyzed using GenEx V6 based on geNorm, NormFinder and statistical methods. Accordingly, the hnRNP A1 gene was identified and selected as the most stably expressed RG for reliable and accurate gene expression quantification in prostate tissues. The ratios of both PCA3 and AMACR gene expression relative to that of the hnRNP A1 gene were calculated and the performance of each target gene for PCa diagnosis was evaluated using receiver-operating characteristics. PCA3 and AMACR mRNA quantification based on RT-qPCR may prove useful in PCa diagnosis. Of particular interesting, combining PCA3 and AMACR quantification improved PCa prediction by increasing sensitivity with retention of good specificity.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제22권5호
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• pp.397-414
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• 2020

In this paper, practical predictive models for soil shear strength parameters are proposed. As cohesion and internal friction angle are of essential shear strength parameters in any geotechnical studies, we try to predict them via artificial neural network (ANN) and neuro-imperialism approaches. The proposed models was based on the result of a series of consolidated undrained triaxial tests were conducted on reinforced sandy soil. The experimental program surveys the increase in internal friction angle of sandy soil due to addition of polypropylene fibers with different lengths and percentages. According to the result of the experimental study, the most important parameters impact on internal friction angle i.e., fiber percentage, fiber length, deviator stress, and pore water pressure were selected as predictive model inputs. The inputs were used to construct several ANN and neuro-imperialism models and a series of statistical indices were calculated to evaluate the prediction accuracy of the developed models. Both simulation results and the values of computed indices confirm that the newly-proposed neuro-imperialism model performs noticeably better comparing to the proposed ANN model. While neuro-imperialism model has training and test error values of 0.068 and 0.094, respectively, ANN model give error values of 0.083 for training sets and 0.26 for testing sets. Therefore, the neuro-imperialism can provide a new applicable model to effectively predict the internal friction angle of fiber-reinforced sandy soil.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.183-188
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• 2001

The NOAA AVHRR remotely sensed SST data, collected by the National Fisheries Research and Development Institute (NFRDI), are analyzed in order to understand the spatial and temporal distributions of SST in the sea near korea. Our study is based on 10-day SST images during last 7 years (1991-1997). For a time series analysis of multiple SST images, all of images must be consistent exactly at the same position by adjusting the scales and positions of each SST image. We devised an algorithm which automatically detects cloud pixels from multiple SST images. The cloud detection algorithm is based on a physical constraint that SST anomalies in the ocean do not exceed certain limits (we used $\pm$3$^{\circ}C$ as a criterion of SST anomalies). The remotely sensed SST data are tuned by comparing remotely sensed data with observed SST at coastal stations. Seasonal variations of SST are studied by harmonic fit of SST normals at each pixel and the SST anomalies are studied by statistical method. It was found that the SST anomalies are rather persistent for one or two months. Utilizing the persistency of SST anomalies, we devised an algorithm for a prediction of future SST. In the Markov lprocess model of SST anomalies, autoregression coefficients of SST anomalies during a time elapse of 10 days are between 0.5 and 0.7. The developed algorithm with automatic cloud pixel detection and rediction of future SST is expected to be incorporated to the operational real time service of SST around Korea.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.195-208
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• 1999

위성영상 분류작업에서 분류클래스에 대한 샘플화소의 대표성은 분류 정확도에 많은 영향을 미친다. 따라서, 통계적 영상분류방법에서는 분류 기법 자체보다 분류 확률을 결정하는 트레이닝 단계, 즉 샘플화소의 최적화가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 SPOT XS, LANDSAT TM을 이용한 위성영상 화소분류작업에서 분류 이전단계, 즉 샘플화소의 정규성을 계산하여, 정규성에 악영향을 미치는 화소를 객관적 기준으로 조정하였다. 정규화과정을 위한 유전자 알고리즘 적용의 생존확률 평가함수로 다변량 Q-Q plot의 상관계수와 트레이닝의 분산값을 고려하였으며, 5% 유의수준을 적용하였다. 연구결과, 실험대상지역의 경우, 유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 트레이닝 정규화 결과가 대부분의 클래스에 대하여 그 평균과 분산을 모집단에 근사시키고 있다는 것을 입증하였고, 해당 클래스의 모집단 분포를 예측할 수 있는 가능성을 제시하였다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2015년도 학술발표회
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• pp.225-225
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• 2015

Drought events usually evolve slowly in time and their impacts generally span a long period of time. This indicates that the sequence of drought is not completely random. The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a probabilistic model used to represent dependences between invisible hidden states which finally result in observations. Drought characteristics are dependent on the underlying generating mechanism, which can be well modelled by the HMM. This study employed a HMM with Gaussian emissions to fit the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) series and make multi-step prediction to check the drought characteristics in the future. To estimate the parameters of the HMM, we employed a Bayesian model computed via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Since the true number of hidden states is unknown, we fit the model with varying number of hidden states and used reversible jump to allow for transdimensional moves between models with different numbers of states. We applied the HMM to several stations SPI data in South Korea. The monthly SPI data from January 1973 to December 2012 was divided into two parts, the first 30-year SPI data (January 1973 to December 2002) was used for model calibration and the last 10-year SPI data (January 2003 to December 2012) for model validation. All the SPI data was preprocessed through the wavelet denoising and applied as the visible output in the HMM. Different lead time (T= 1, 3, 6, 12 months) forecasting performances were compared with conventional forecasting techniques (e.g., ANN and ARMA). Based on statistical evaluation performance, the HMM exhibited significant preferable results compared to conventional models with much larger forecasting skill score (about 0.3-0.6) and lower Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values (about 0.5-0.9).

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제37권6_2호
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• pp.1891-1900
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• 2021

직경 2.5 ㎛ 이하인 초미세먼지는 급격한 도시화와 인구 증가로 인해 대도시에서 많이 발생하며, 유아 및 청소년기는 성인에 비해 초미세먼지에 취약하고 만성 질환으로 이어질 가능성이 높다. 특히 대부분의 청소년들은 학교에서 가장 많은 시간을 보내고 있으며, 다양한 이유에 의해 실외에서 발생한 초미세먼지가 실내로 유입된다. 본 연구는 외부 요인에 의해 발생하는 학교 초미세먼지를 예측하고 학교별 초미세먼지 범주화를 수행하였다. 10-fold cross validation과 grid-search method를 적용한 random forest (RF) 모델에 화학과 기상 인자, 위성 기반의 aerosol optical depth (AOD)를 입력 자료로 하여 학교 초미세먼지를 예측하고 정확도 평가를 위해 4가지 통계 지표를 이용하였다. 학교 미세먼지 범주화를 위해 6가지 유형을 가진 느슨한 기준과 엄격한 기준을 정의하였으며, 범주화 결과 느슨한 기준의 경우 유형 2와 3에, 엄격한 기준의 경우 유형 3과 4에 가장 많은 학교가 포함되었다.

• 대기
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• 제31권3호
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• pp.341-359
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• 2021

This technical note introduces the new Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Global Seasonal forecasting system version 6 (GloSea6) to provide a reference for future scientific works on GloSea6. We describe the main areas of progress and improvements to the current GloSea5 in the scientific and technical aspects of all the GloSea6 components - atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea-ice models. Also, the operational architectures of GloSea6 installed on the new KMA supercomputer are presented. It includes (1) pre-processes for atmospheric and ocean initial conditions with the quasi-real-time land surface initialization system, (2) the configurations for model runs to produce sets of forecasts and hindcasts, (3) the ensemble statistical prediction system, and (4) the verification system. The changes of operational frameworks and computing systems are also reported, including Rose/Cylc - a new framework equipped with suite configurations and workflows for operationally managing and running Glosea6. In addition, we conduct the first-ever run with GloSea6 and evaluate the potential of GloSea6 compared to GloSea5 in terms of verification against reanalysis and observations, using a one-month case of June 2020. The GloSea6 yields improvements in model performance for some variables in some regions; for example, the root mean squared error of 500 hPa geopotential height over the tropics is reduced by about 52%. These experimental results show that GloSea6 is a promising system for improved seasonal forecasts.