• Title/Summary/Keyword: statistical patterns

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Development of Market Growth Pattern Map Based on Growth Model and Self-organizing Map Algorithm: Focusing on ICT products (자기조직화 지도를 활용한 성장모형 기반의 시장 성장패턴 지도 구축: ICT제품을 중심으로)

  • Park, Do-Hyung;Chung, Jaekwon;Chung, Yeo Jin;Lee, Dongwon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2014
  • Market forecasting aims to estimate the sales volume of a product or service that is sold to consumers for a specific selling period. From the perspective of the enterprise, accurate market forecasting assists in determining the timing of new product introduction, product design, and establishing production plans and marketing strategies that enable a more efficient decision-making process. Moreover, accurate market forecasting enables governments to efficiently establish a national budget organization. This study aims to generate a market growth curve for ICT (information and communication technology) goods using past time series data; categorize products showing similar growth patterns; understand markets in the industry; and forecast the future outlook of such products. This study suggests the useful and meaningful process (or methodology) to identify the market growth pattern with quantitative growth model and data mining algorithm. The study employs the following methodology. At the first stage, past time series data are collected based on the target products or services of categorized industry. The data, such as the volume of sales and domestic consumption for a specific product or service, are collected from the relevant government ministry, the National Statistical Office, and other relevant government organizations. For collected data that may not be analyzed due to the lack of past data and the alteration of code names, data pre-processing work should be performed. At the second stage of this process, an optimal model for market forecasting should be selected. This model can be varied on the basis of the characteristics of each categorized industry. As this study is focused on the ICT industry, which has more frequent new technology appearances resulting in changes of the market structure, Logistic model, Gompertz model, and Bass model are selected. A hybrid model that combines different models can also be considered. The hybrid model considered for use in this study analyzes the size of the market potential through the Logistic and Gompertz models, and then the figures are used for the Bass model. The third stage of this process is to evaluate which model most accurately explains the data. In order to do this, the parameter should be estimated on the basis of the collected past time series data to generate the models' predictive value and calculate the root-mean squared error (RMSE). The model that shows the lowest average RMSE value for every product type is considered as the best model. At the fourth stage of this process, based on the estimated parameter value generated by the best model, a market growth pattern map is constructed with self-organizing map algorithm. A self-organizing map is learning with market pattern parameters for all products or services as input data, and the products or services are organized into an $N{\times}N$ map. The number of clusters increase from 2 to M, depending on the characteristics of the nodes on the map. The clusters are divided into zones, and the clusters with the ability to provide the most meaningful explanation are selected. Based on the final selection of clusters, the boundaries between the nodes are selected and, ultimately, the market growth pattern map is completed. The last step is to determine the final characteristics of the clusters as well as the market growth curve. The average of the market growth pattern parameters in the clusters is taken to be a representative figure. Using this figure, a growth curve is drawn for each cluster, and their characteristics are analyzed. Also, taking into consideration the product types in each cluster, their characteristics can be qualitatively generated. We expect that the process and system that this paper suggests can be used as a tool for forecasting demand in the ICT and other industries.

Tibial Torsion in Children of the Jeju Area (제주지역 소아의 경골 염전)

  • Song, Dong Ho;Eun, Baik-Lin;Park, Sang Hee;Lee, Joon Young;Tockgo, Young Chang
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.75-80
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    • 2005
  • Purpose : Internal tibial torsion is prevalent in East Asian countries such as Korea and Japan, where sitting on the floor is common behavior. Internal tibial torsion or excessive lateral tibial torsion may cause esthetical, functional, or psychological problems and also may induce degenerative arthritis in older age. The purpose of this study is to measure the tibial torsion in children of the Jeju area. Methods : Tibial torsion was measured in 1,042 lower extremities of 521 children from one to 12 years of age. The values of transmalleolar angles were analyzed for each age group divided by 6 months. Quadratic and linear regression models were used to fit patterns of changes in mean values of transmalleolar angles. The age at seven, which provides the highest coefficient of determination for quadratic regression analysis, was used as a cut-off point to fit different statistical models. Results : The mean transmalleolar angle was $0.10{\pm}5.79^{\circ}$ in all children,$ 0.90{\pm}5.49^{\circ}$ in males, and $-0.80{\pm}5.97^{\circ}$ in females. The value was $4.25{\pm}4.04$ in 1 year of age, gradually decreased to the lowest level of $-1.98^{\circ}$ in four years and seven months of age, increased again with age until it reached $0.67{\pm}1.10^{\circ}$ at seven years of age, and stayed at that level thereafter. Conclusion : Internal tibial torsion in infancy is known to correct spontaneously in the normal developing process. But in this study, the mean transmalleolar angle in children of Jeju area annually decreased after one year of age; to the lowest angle at four years and seven months of age; increased again gradually to the age of seven; and persisted in that level, about $10^{\circ}$ less than western children, not correcting further thereafter. These findings suggest tibial torsion might be caused by lifestyle, especially sitting on feet. To prevent abnormalities of joints and gaits, early diagnosis of tibial torsion in childhood and posture correction or early treatment when needed, seems to be necessary.

Functional MR Imaging of Cerbral Motor Cortex: Comparison between Conventional Gradient Echo and EPI Techniques (뇌 운동피질의 기능적 영상: 고식적 Gradient Echo기법과 EPI기법간의 비교)

  • 송인찬
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.109-113
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    • 1997
  • Purpose: To evaluate the differences of functional imaging patterns between conventional spoiled gradient echo (SPGR) and echo planar imaging (EPI) methods in cerebral motor cortex activation. Materials and Methods: Functional MR imaging of cerebral motor cortex activation was examined on a 1.5T MR unit with SPGR (TRfrE/flip angle=50ms/4Oms/$30^{\circ}$, FOV=300mm, matrix $size=256{\times}256$, slice thickness=5mm) and an interleaved single shot gradient echo EPI (TRfrE/flip angle = 3000ms/40ms/$90^{\circ}$, FOV=300mm, matrix $size=128{\times}128$, slice thickness=5mm) techniques in five male healthy volunteers. A total of 160 images in one slice and 960 images in 6 slices were obtained with SPGR and EPI, respectively. A right finger movement was accomplished with a paradigm of an 8 activation/ 8 rest periods. The cross-correlation was used for a statistical mapping algorithm. We evaluated any differences of the time series and the signal intensity changes between the rest and activation periods obtained with two techniques. Also, the locations and areas of the activation sites were compared between two techniques. Results: The activation sites in the motor cortex were accurately localized with both methods. In the signal intensity changes between the rest and activation periods at the activation regions, no significant differences were found between EPI and SPGR. Signal to noise ratio (SNR) of the time series data was higher in EPI than in SPGR by two folds. Also, larger pixels were distributed over small p-values at the activation sites in EPI. Conclusions: Good quality functional MR imaging of the cerebral motor cortex activation could be obtained with both SPGR and EPI. However, EPI is preferable because it provides more precise information on hemodynamics related to neural activities than SPGR due to high sensitivity.

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Evaluation of Nutritional Status among Primary School Children in Uganda: Comparison of Urban and Rural Areas (우간다 초등학생의 영양섭취 실태조사: 도심지역과 농촌지역의 비교)

  • Lee, Ji-Yeon;Park, Hye-Jung;Yu, Min;Hwang, Ha-Yeong;Sung, Jung-Rim;Kim, Hee-Seon
    • Korean Journal of Community Nutrition
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.91-101
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    • 2020
  • Objectives: The aim of this study was to investigate dietary intakes and nutritional status among Uganda primary school children from two selected schools in urban and rural areas. Methods: Data were collected from 350 pupils (6-14 years) in Mpigi district, Uganda. All participants were offered a school lunch meal (usually maize porridge and boiled beans). Dietary survey was conducted in October 2016. Data for dietary intake levels were collected by the 24-hour recall method with trained school staffs. The data were converted into nutrient intakes using the CAN-Pro 5.0 Program and compared with KDRIs to evaluate the nutritional status of the subjects. Diet quality indexes such as nutrient density, nutrient adequacy ratio (NAR), mean adequacy ratio (MAR), and index of nutritional quality (INQ) and a diet diversity index such as diet diversity score (DDS) were calculated to evaluate nutritional status among subjects. Data were analyzed using SPSS statistical programs. Results: Results show that the intakes of most nutrients were significantly different by schools. The nutritional status of micro-nutrients was very low in both schools according to analysis of nutritional indexes such as NARs and INQs. Students from both schools should improve intakes of micro-nutrients related to child growth such as calcium, Vitamin B6, zinc and folate. According to the analysis of dietary diversity, there was difference in dietary patterns by schools presumably due to their locations. Conclusions: This suggests that current meals could not provide adequate nutrients for the subjects and urgent nutrition interventions for school food services are needed to improve their nutritional well-being. New foods supplements based on local cuisine are also needed to ensure dietary diversity and sustainable development plans.

The Relationships among Perceived Value, Use-Diffusion, Loyalty of Mobile Instant Messaging Service (모바일 메신저 서비스의 지각된 가치, 사용-확산 그리고 충성도 간의 관계에 대한 연구)

  • Jo, Dong-Hyuk;Park, Jong-Woo;Chun, Hyun-Jae
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.193-212
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    • 2011
  • Mobile instant messaging service is surfacing to an important keyword in the mobile market together with popularization of Smart phones. Mobile instant messaging service in Korea has become popular to the degree of 87.9% usages from total Smartphone holders, and it is expected that using populations will be more enlarged afterwards if considering a fact that its populations of Smartphone is continuously being increased after exceeding 10 million persons (Trend Monitor, June 2011). In the instant messaging market where competitions have been deepened day by day, raising customer's royalties will be the key for company's business survivals and goals of corporate marketing strategies. It could be said that understanding on which factors affect to customer retentions and royalties is very important. Specially, as changing status is being progressed very quickly in case of innovative mobile services like the instant messaging service, research necessities on how many do consumers use the services after accepting them, how much do consumers use them variously, and whether does it connect to long-term relations have been increased, but studies on such matters are in insufficient situations actually. Therefore, this study examined on which effects were affected to use-diffusion and loyalty factors from perceived customer vales' factors having been occurred after accepting the mobile instant messaging service, namely 'functional value', 'monetary value', 'emotional value', and 'social value'. Also, the study looked into what kind of roles do the service usage and using variety play to service's continued using intents as a loyalty index, recommending intents to others, and brand switching intents. And then the study laid the main purpose in trying to provide implications for enhancing customer securities and royalties on the mobile instant messaging service through research's results. The research hypotheses are as follows; H1: Perceived values will affect influences to royalties. H2: Use-Diffusion will affect influences to loyalty. H3: Perceived value will affect influences to loyalty. H4: The use-diffusion will play intermediating roles between perceived values and loyalty. Total 276 cases among collected 284 ones were used for the statistical analysis by SPSS ver. 15 package. Reliability, Factor analysis, regression were done. As the result of research, 'monetary value' and 'emotional value' affected to 'usage' among perceived value factors, and 'emotional value' was appeared as affecting the largest influence. Besides, the usage affected to constant-using intents and recommending intents to others, and using varieties were displayed as affecting to recommending intents to others. On the other hand, 'Using' and 'Using diversity' were appeared as not affecting to 'brand switching intentions'. Meanwhile, as the result of recognizing about effects of perceived values on the loyalty, it was appeared such like 'continued using intents' affected to'functional value', 'monetary value', and 'social value' first, and also 'monetary value', 'emotional value', and 'social value' affected to 'recommending intents to others'. On the other hand, it was shown such like only 'social value' affected influences to 'brand switching intents', and thus contrary results with the factor 'constant-using intents' were displayed. So, it seems that there are many applications to service provides who are worrying about marketing strategies for making consumer retains (constant-using) and new consumer's inductions (brand-switching intents). Finally, as a result of looking into intermediating roles of the use-diffusion factor in relations between conceived values and royalties at hypothesis 4, 'using' and 'using diversity' were displayed as affecting significant influences all together. Regarding to research result's implications, for expanding and promoting continued uses of the mobile instant messaging service by service providers: First, encouraging recognitions on the perceived value connected to users' service usage are necessary. Second, setting up user's use-diffusion strategies are required so as to enhance the loyalty after understanding a fact that use-diffusion patterns affecting to the service's loyalty are different. Finally, methods of raising customer loyalties and making constant relationships have to be grouped by analyzing on what are the customer value's factors that can satisfy users in competitive alterations.

End-use analysis of household water by metering (가정용수의 용도별 사용량 조사 및 원단위 분석)

  • Kim, Hwa-Soo;Lee, Doo-Jin;Kim, Ju-Whan;Kim, Jung-Hyun;Jung, Kwan-Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.869-877
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the trends and patterns of variou kind of water uses in a household by metering in Korea. Water use components are classified by toilet, washbowl, bathing, laundry, kitchen, etc. Flow meters are installed in 146 household selected by sampling in all around Korea. The data are gathered by web-based data collection system from the year 2002 to 2006, considering pre-investigated data such as occupation, revenue, family members, housing types, age, floor area, water saving devices, education, etc. Reliable data are selected by upper fence method for each observed water use component and statistical characteristics are estimated for each residential type to determine liter per capita per day. Estimated domestic per capita day show an indoor water use with the range from $150{\ell}pcd$ to $169{\ell}pcd$ for each housing type as the order of high rise apartment, multi-house, and single house. As the order of consuming amount among water use components, it is investigated that toilet($38.5{\ell}pcd$) is the first, and the second is laundry water($30.8{\ell}pcd$), the third is kitchen($28.4{\ell}pcd$), the fourth is bathtub($24.7{\ell}pcd$), the next is washbowl($15.4{\ell}pcd$). The results are compared with water uses in U.K. and U.S. As life style has been changed into western style, pattern of water use in Korea is tend to be similar with the U.S. water use pattern. Compared with the surveying results by Bradley, on 1985. Thirty liter of total use increased with the advancement of economic level, and a little change of water use pattern can be found. Especially, toilet water take almost half part of total water use and laundry water shows lowest as 11% in surveying at the year of 1985. But, this study shows that 39 liter, 28% of toilet water, has been decreased by the spread of saving devices and campaign. It is supposed that the spread large sized laundry machine make by-hand laundry has been decreased and water use increased. Unit water amount of each end-use in household can be applied to design factor for water and wastewater facilities, and it play a role as information in establishing water demand forecasting and conservation policy.

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THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THEIR FAMILY ENVIRONMENT AND CHARACTER TRAIT AMONG DELINQUENT ADOLESCENTS IN KOREA (한국비행 청소년의 가정환경 및 개인내적 특성)

  • Kim, Hun-Soo;Kim, Hyun-Sil
    • Journal of the Korean Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.57-69
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    • 1997
  • Objective:At the present time in Korea, for a considerable proportion of children and adolescent, delinquent behavior and violence has become as a way of life in their lives and a major social problem issue as well. The contributing factors to this problem were assumed to be the negative interaction between family environment and character of adolescent. The purpose of this study is to search the relationship between these constructs and juvenile delinquency. Method:Data were collected through questionnaire survey over a period of 2 months. Subjects served for this study consisted of 1,863 adolescents including 657 delinquent adolescents and 1,206 student adolescents in Korea, sampled from Korean student population and delinquent adolescent population confined in juvenile corrective institutions, using proportional stratified random sampling method. Their age ranged between 12 and 18 years. Data were analysed by IBM PC using SAS program. Statistical methods employed were Chi-square and principal component analysis. Results:The results of this study were as follows:Inconsistency by parental child rearing patterns tended to affect delinquent behavior among delinquent adolescents. On the other hand, adolescent students were consistently reared by their parent with democratic, flexible, trusting their children and reward-oriented attitudes. In comparison of both parents in the degree of influence on their children, it was revealed that paternal child rearing pattern was more influential on their children’s behaviors than maternal’s. The psychological instability of family, disharmonious parent-child relationships tended to be contributing to delinquent behavior among delinquent adolescents. Especially, It was an interesting finding that student’s mother is the higher employed than delinquent’s mother. However working mother was more prevalent in the student’ adolescents than in student adolescents in previous studies. The delinquent adolescents have more depressive trend, more complaints of psychosomatic symptoms, the higher degree of need frustration, the more maladaptive and antisocial personality pattern than student adolescents. Conclusion:Recently, many studies on association between family factor, character of adolescent and juvenile delinquent behavior have produced relatively consistent results. This study showed that family environment and character trait of adolescent also were linked with delinquent behavior such as smoking, drinking, runaway and physical assaults etc. The results of this survey may provide impetus for future speculation and study of correlation or reciprocal interaction between family factor, character trait of adolescent and delinquent behavior during adolescence and beyond.

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A study on the adjustment problems of the aged (노후적응에 관한 연구 - 생활만족도 및 가족의 교류도를 중심으로-)

  • 서병숙
    • Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.133-148
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    • 1989
  • This study attempts of analyze empirically the living status of the elderly in Korea by finding out the problems of it in the family and by clarifying the influences of the family environmental variables and the values on the adjustment of the aged. To carryout the aim of this study, the causes and the patterns of the problems for the aged had been found out through the review of literature. Based on them the questionnaire was prepared including the questions of the values, family environmental vriables as well as the degree of satisfaction of thier liver and the extent of life interchange. The former variables were taken as independent and the latter were taken as dependent variables, so that the relationship between the two variables could be exemplified. The 400 aged over 60 living in Seoul and the other cities were selected through the purposive sampling and interviewed. The answers of the 376 respondents, 94% of the sample, were analyzed for this study. The following results have been found out through the various statistical analysis such as frequency distribution, chi-square test, pearson's correlation, analysis of variance and cluster analysis. At first, the results from the examination of the frequency distribution regarding the living status of the aged are; I) sixteen percent of the respondents living with their married offspring were receiving economical support, though they pointed out the problems of the extended family are the inconveniences with their children (60%) and simpleness (20%) of their livers. It seems that the aged in Korea are poor and have negative opinion on the relationship with their offspring even if they live in the same house. Secondly, it has been found out that the family environmental variables, especially such as sex, occupation, residence, education, level, living ability and the family type, play and important role not only on the degree of satisfaction of their liver but also on the extent of interchange of their lives. However, the variables such as religion and whether the spouse is alive or not do not play and important role. Thirdly, the reported main reasons of their delightness were healthy life (1.87%), the well-being of their offspring (2.08%), the spouse's long life (3.38%), religious activity (5.05%), the hobby activity (4.31%) and the participation in the social activity (5.05%). While, they mainly concern about the illness (1.98%), offspring (2.00%), econmic difficulties (3.39%), inharmonious home (3.81%) and the despicable treatment (3.81%). The respondents wer classified into two groups, they are dependent and independent, using cluster analysis. Health, social activity, offspiring, religion, couple's long life among the factors which lead them to be delighted were turned out to be statistically signhificant at 0.01 significance level between the two groups. As far as their worrisome matters are concerned, health and economic difficulties were significantly different between the two groups. Fourthly, regarding the life interchange, it has been proved that there is a statistically significant differences betwwen the two groups in the economic and the emotional satisfaction, help for ordinary life, status in the family, subjective and objective relationship with offspring, but not in economic dependency and the activity status. Fifthly, it has been noted that there is a high correlation between the degree of life's satisfaction and the extent of life interchange. On the basis of the results mentioned above, it could be concluded taht; i) The majority of the aged in Korea are not economically active, and thus they live with their married offspring even of they have a negative opinion on the subjective relationship with them. This can be pointed out as the main problem of the aged and thus it needs to be studied further. ii) the environmental variables such as age, sex education level, family type and occuption (which can not be changed by their effrot) turned out to give an important effect on the extent of the life interchange among the aged. iii) The respondents who are identified as independent group have a higher degree of life satisfaction and family status than the group identified as defendent. Thus, it can be inferred that it is possible for them to adjust their life by making an effort to modify themselves. iv) The high correlation between the extent of life interchange and the degree of life satisfaction indicates that the elderly themselves can adjust in order to obtain the higher degree of life satisfaction. Therefore, the following suggestions are derived from this study. First of all, the aged should try to be psychologically independent. Second, they need to control themselves in order to achieve self-assurance. Third, the community have to prepare a program of self-development for the aged. Fourth, the social welfare policy that can solve the problem of illness and poverty of the elderly should be introduced, so that their minimum requirements can be satisfied.

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Effects of Fertigation with Pig Slurry on Growth and Yield of Red pepper (돈분 액비를 이용한 관비재배가 고추의 생육 및 수량에 미치는 영향)

  • Lim, Tae-Jun;Lee, In-Bog;Kang, Seok-Beom;Park, Jin-Myeon;Hong, Soon-Dal
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.227-231
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    • 2010
  • Slurry composting biofiltration(SCB) is considered as a treatment to produce a better fertilizer resource than raw pig slurry as it reduces odor and improves nutrients imbalance. For the agricultural use of SCB slurry as a nutrient source with minimum environmental impact, it is important to investigate the effect of different rate of SCB slurry application on nutrient (particularly for nitrogen) uptake and growth of crops. This study was conducted to investigate the influence of fertigation using pig slurry(PS) on growth and yield of red pepper and to evaluate the appropriate PS concentration in fertigation for soils with different nitrate concentration. To evaluate the effects of fertigation applied PS as a substitute of chemical fertilizer(CF), a single application of three different concentrations of PS: $N_{0.5}$ (43 mg/L), $N_{1.0}$ (86 mg/L) and $N_{1.5}$ (131 mg/L) were compared with CF $N_{1.0}$ (89 mg/L) as a control nitrogen fertilizer. Statistical analysis showed that the growths of red pepper were not affected by treatments. In addition, the yields were no significant difference among treatments, though the highest yield was obtained in PS $N_{1.0}$ by 20,580 kg/ha. In soil chemical properties, nitrate nitrogen on soil of between PS N1.0 and CF $N_{1.0}$ treatment showed similar patterns although they were higher than the preplant nitrogen content. Also, there was no significant difference in yield of red pepper between PS and CF treatment applied as fertigation on soils where nitrate nitrogen contents of each soil contains 10, 100 and 200 mg/kg respectively. Consequently, the application of PS, such as SCB, as a substitute of CF is available for growth and yield of red pepper, there could be accordingly estimated the optimal fertigation concentration of PS for red pepper cultivation.

Patterns of Retear After Repair of the Rotator Cuff - MRI Analysis of 109Cases - (회전근 개 봉합술 후 발생한 재파열의 양상 - 109예의 자기 공명 영상 검사 분석 -)

  • Tae, Suk-Kee;Kim, Young-Sung;Lee, Ho-Min;Park, Pan-Kun
    • Clinics in Shoulder and Elbow
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.16-24
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    • 2012
  • Purpose: This study was designed to investigate the rate of incidence, location and the clinical value of the rotator cuff retear by analyzing MRI scans, which was taken after an arthroscopic rotator cuff repair. Materials and Methods: This study included a total of 109 patients, who underwent a shoulder MRI scan after an average of 10.6 months later from the arthroscopic rotator cuff repair. We only defined the 'retear' when the Sugaya type IV and V was observed in the sagittal section of the MRI. The location of the retear was divided into the medial and lateral areas by the site, which was 1 cm medial to the anchor insertion. We investigated the incidence rate and the location of the retear, in terms of the age, sex, initial tear size and the suture method. Also, we compared the functional score of the retear group and the non-retear group, after an average of 13.9 months follow-up. Results: There were 38 of the 109 patients that showed the rotator cuff retear. Of these patients, 25 were male patients, and 13 were female patients. Of the 38 patients with the rotator cuff retear, 21 patients were included in the <3 cm retear group, and 17 were included in the ${\geqq}3$ cm retear group. At the end of the follow up period, all 109 patients showed a statistical significant improvement in the shoulder functional score. Conclusion: According to the follow up of the MRI scan, which was taken after the rotator cuff repair, the retear rate reached 34.9 %, and there were no significant differences on the age and the suture method. More rotator cuff retear occurred in male patients, and the initial tear size was positively correlated with the incidence rate of the rotator cuff retear. Also, the retear was more frequently observed at the medial side. That is because when the suture was performed, excessive tension was loaded on the medial side of the suture site.