• Title/Summary/Keyword: statistical estimate

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Evaluation of Agro-Climatic Index Using Multi-Model Ensemble Downscaled Climate Prediction of CMIP5 (상세화된 CMIP5 기후변화전망의 다중모델앙상블 접근에 의한 농업기후지수 평가)

  • Chung, Uran;Cho, Jaepil;Lee, Eun-Jeong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.108-125
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    • 2015
  • The agro-climatic index is one of the ways to assess the climate resources of particular agricultural areas on the prospect of agricultural production; it can be a key indicator of agricultural productivity by providing the basic information required for the implementation of different and various farming techniques and practicalities to estimate the growth and yield of crops from the climate resources such as air temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation. However, the agro-climate index can always be changed since the index is not the absolute. Recently, many studies which consider uncertainty of future climate change have been actively conducted using multi-model ensemble (MME) approach by developing and improving dynamic and statistical downscaling of Global Climate Model (GCM) output. In this study, the agro-climatic index of Korean Peninsula, such as growing degree day based on $5^{\circ}C$, plant period based on $5^{\circ}C$, crop period based on $10^{\circ}C$, and frost free day were calculated for assessment of the spatio-temporal variations and uncertainties of the indices according to climate change; the downscaled historical (1976-2005) and near future (2011-2040) RCP climate sceneries of AR5 were applied to the calculation of the index. The result showed four agro-climatic indices calculated by nine individual GCMs as well as MME agreed with agro-climatic indices which were calculated by the observed data. It was confirmed that MME, as well as each individual GCM emulated well on past climate in the four major Rivers of South Korea (Han, Nakdong, Geum, and Seumjin and Yeoungsan). However, spatial downscaling still needs further improvement since the agro-climatic indices of some individual GCMs showed different variations with the observed indices at the change of spatial distribution of the four Rivers. The four agro-climatic indices of the Korean Peninsula were expected to increase in nine individual GCMs and MME in future climate scenarios. The differences and uncertainties of the agro-climatic indices have not been reduced on the unlimited coupling of multi-model ensembles. Further research is still required although the differences started to improve when combining of three or four individual GCMs in the study. The agro-climatic indices which were derived and evaluated in the study will be the baseline for the assessment of agro-climatic abnormal indices and agro-productivity indices of the next research work.

Estimation of the Accuracy of Genomic Breeding Value in Hanwoo (Korean Cattle) (한우의 유전체 육종가의 정확도 추정)

  • Lee, Seung Soo;Lee, Seung Hwan;Choi, Tae Jeong;Choy, Yun Ho;Cho, Kwang Hyun;Choi, You Lim;Cho, Yong Min;Kim, Nae Soo;Lee, Jung Jae
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.13-18
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    • 2013
  • This study was conducted to estimate the Genomic Estimated Breeding Value (GEBV) using Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (GBLUP) method in Hanwoo (Korean native cattle) population. The result is expected to adapt genomic selection onto the national Hanwoo evaluation system. Carcass weight (CW), eye muscle area (EMA), backfat thickness (BT), and marbling score (MS) were investigated in 552 Hanwoo progeny-tested steers at Livestock Improvement Main Center. Animals were genotyped with Illumina BovineHD BeadChip (777K SNPs). For statistical analysis, Genetic Relationship Matrix (GRM) was formulated on the basis of genotypes and the accuracy of GEBV was estimated with 10-fold Cross-validation method. The accuracies estimated with cross-validation method were between 0.915~0.957. In 534 progeny-tested steers, the maximum difference of GEBV accuracy compared to conventional EBV for CW, EMA, BT, and MS traits were 9.56%, 5.78%, 5.78%, and 4.18% respectively. In 3,674 pedigree traced bulls, maximum increased difference of GEBV for CW, EMA, BT, and MS traits were increased as 13.54%, 6.50%, 6.50%, and 4.31% respectively. This showed that the implementation of genomic pre-selection for candidate calves to test on meat production traits could improve the genetic gain by increasing accuracy and reducing generation interval in Hanwoo genetic evaluation system to select proven bulls.

Clinical Estimation of Corrected State with Change in Vertex Distance (정점간거리 변화에 따른 교정상태의 임상 평가)

  • Kim, Jung-Hee;Lee, Hak-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Ophthalmic Optics Society
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.25-30
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: This study was conducted to estimate the changes of corrected diopter and corrected visual acuity with the change in vertex distance. Also we aimed to provide basic data for refraction test. Methods: Using the trial lens, we measured the corrected diopter and corrected visual acuity after performing binocular balance test. We measured the changes of corrected diopter and corrected visual acuity in change of vertex distance. We analyzed statistical significance and relations between vertex distance and corrected diopter and corrected visual acuity. Results: There was no difference in corrected diopter with the change of vertex distance within -1.00D, but the corrected diopter increased with it over - 1.25D. In particular, the change of diopter was largest when the vertex distance increased 15 mm. At over 11.00D, there was large changes of diopter with the changes of vertex distance at 5 mm, 10 mm and 15 mm. On correlation analysis between the vertex distance and the corrected diopter, there was strong correlation (r=0.999 at 5 mm increase of vertex distance, r=0.982 at 10 mm increase and r=0.957 at 15 mm increase) and also there was significant (p<0.01). At the change of visual acuity in increased of vertex distance, the range of a decrease in visual acuity was large when the changes of vertex distance was largest. On correlation analysis between the vertex distance and the corrected visual acuity, there was strong correlation (r=0.969 at 5 mm increase of vertex distance, r=0.985 at 10 mm increase and r=0.994 at 15 mm increase) and also there was significant (p<0.01). Conclusions: The vertex distance was very important at the refraction test and at wearing spectacle. On correlation analysis between the vertex distance and the corrected diopter, and the corrected visual acuity, there was strong correlation and statistically significant. Therefore, the vertex distance should be kept at the refraction using trial lens, and the best fitting was made not to slipping forward, and so we suggested regular refitting of spectacle and the managing method of spectacle were educated to the spectacle wearers.

Evaluation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Cropland Sector on Local Government Levels based on 2006 IPCC Guideline (2006 IPCC 가이드라인을 적용한 지자체별 경종부문 온실가스 배출량 평가)

  • Jeong, Hyun-Cheol;Kim, Gun-Yeob;Lee, Seul-Bi;Lee, Jong-Sik;Lee, Jung-Hwan;So, Kyu-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.842-847
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    • 2012
  • This study was conducted to estimate the greenhouse gas emissions on local government levels from 1990 to 2010 using 2006 IPCC guideline methodology. To calculate greenhouse gas emissions based on the 16 local governments, emission factor and scaling factor were used with default value and activity data came from the food, agricultural, forestry and fisheries statistical yearbook of MIFAFF (Ministry for Food, Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries). The total emissions in crop sector gradually decreased from 1990 to 2010 due to a decline in agricultural land and nitrogen fertilizer usage. The annual average emission of greenhouse gas was the highest in Jeonnam (JN) with 1,698 Gg $CO_2$-eq and following Chungnam (CN), Gyungbuk (GB), Jeonbuk (JB) and Gyunggi (GG). The sum of top-six locals emission had occupied 83.4% of the total emission in cropland sector. The annual average emissions in 1990 by applying 2006 IPCC guideline were approximately 43% less than the national greenhouse gas inventory by 1996 IPCC guideline. Jeonnam (JN) province occupied also the highest results of greenhouse gas emission estimated by gas types (methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide) and emission sources such as rice cultivation, agricultural soil, field burning of crop residue and urea fertilizer.

A Study on the Estimation of Values of Individual Services of an Arboretum using the CE Method - Focused on Gyeongnam Arboretum - (CE 기법을 적용한 수목원의 편익제공 가치 추정 연구 - 경남수목원을 대상으로 -)

  • Kang, Kee-Rae
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.51-59
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    • 2013
  • This study was conducted to compare the sizes of effective values, which users recognize, according to the kinds of physical and psychological services provided by an arboretum, by estimating them in monetary values. As an analysis tool for this purpose, the CE(Choice Experiments) method, which is able to estimate effective value's size depending on each variable, was employed. For drawing up profiles for estimation of the values of individual services, 25 profiles were extracted using the orthogonal design of the SPSS statistical package, and questions of 75 pairs were created not to make each of the profiles overlapped. Then, each user was given three questions at five sets each and 3,510 data were used for the analysis. As the result, in relation to the attribute, 'The kinds of trees should be diversified 50% more than now.', firstly, users showed the biggest willingness to pay, based on the present level, and expressed intentions to pay 7,956 won, additionally. Secondly, the value of the path design that was unique than the present road design was estimated in 6,025 won, and when individual attendants guided visitors in the arboretum, they expressed intentions to pay nearly three times more expenses than when they were guided as a group. These results show that users in the Gyeongnam Arboretum recognized the highest effective values towards the collection and display of trees that are arboretum's original functions, and it was followed by the unique road design to observe a variety of dense trees well. This research could be useful in comparing or measuring particular effective values of users that central operators of arboretums want to know. Moreover, it would be suggested as an advanced research for providing basic data about value estimation of individual environmental goods not only in arboretums, but also in other fields.

Impact of Adjuvant Chemoradiation Therapy on the Postoperative 5-year Survival Rates for Stage-II Gastric Cancer (2기 위암환자의 수술 후 보조 항암요법 및 방사선 치료가 생존율에 미치는 영향)

  • Hong, Seong-Kweon;Choi, Min-Gew;Baik, Yong-Hae;Noh, Jae-Hyung;Sohn, Tae-Sung;Kim, Sung
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.5 no.4 s.20
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    • pp.281-287
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    • 2005
  • Purpose: This study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness and the role of post-operative adjuvant chemoradiation therapy in a stage-II (UICC, 1997) primary gastric cancer. Materials and Methods: From September 1994 to December 2004, 954 stage-II gastric-cancer patients were seen, and all of them underwent a curative resection with extensive (D2) lymph-node dissection. The chemotherapy consisted of fluorouracil $(400mg/m^2)$ plus leucovorin $(20mg/m^2)$ for 5 days, followed by 4,500 cGy of radiotherapy for 5 weeks with fluorourcil and leucovorin on the first 4 days and the last 3 days of radiotherapy. Two five-day cycles of chemotherapy were given four weeks after the completion of radiotherapy. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the survival rates. To assess the importance of potential prognostic factors, we performed univariate and multivariate analyses using a log-rank test and Cox's proportional hazards regression model. A P value <0.05 was considered significant. Results: Univariate analysis revealed that age, tumor size, gross type, surgical method, and postoperative adjuvant therapy had statistical significance. Among these factors, age, surgical method, tumor size, surgical method, and postoperative adjuvant therapy were found to be independent prognostic factors by using a multivariate analysis. The postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy group and the chemoradiation therapy group had survival benefit compared to the surgery-only group. However the chemoradiation therapy group had no significant survival benefit compared to the chemotherapy group. Conclusion: The postoperative adjuvant therapy in stage-II gastric-cancer patients had significant benefit. Therefore, postoperative adjuvant chemoradiation therapy has an acceptable effect. A large-scale, randomized study is needed to evaluate the effectiveness and the role of postoperative radiation therapy.

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THE LUMINOSITY-LINEWIDTH RELATION AS A PROBE OF THE EVOLUTION OF FIELD GALAXIES

  • GUHATHAKURTA PURAGRA;ING KRISTINE;RIX HANS-WALTER;COLLESS MATTHEW;WILLIAMS TED
    • Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.29 no.spc1
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    • pp.63-64
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    • 1996
  • The nature of distant faint blue field galaxies remains a mystery, despite the fact that much attention has been devoted to this subject in the last decade. Galaxy counts, particularly those in the optical and near ultraviolet bandpasses, have been demonstrated to be well in excess of those expected in the 'no-evolution' scenario. This has usually been taken to imply that galaxies were brighter in the past, presumably due to a higher rate of star formation. More recently, redshift surveys of galaxies as faint as B$\~$24 have shown that the mean redshift of faint blue galaxies is lower than that predicted by standard evolutionary models (de-signed to fit the galaxy counts). The galaxy number count data and redshift data suggest that evolutionary effects are most prominent at the faint end of the galaxy luminosity function. While these data constrain the form of evolution of the overall luminosity function, they do not constrain evolution in individual galaxies. We are carrying out a series of observations as part of a long-term program aimed at a better understanding of the nature and amount of luminosity evolution in individual galaxies. Our study uses the luminosity-linewidth relation (Tully-Fisher relation) for disk galaxies as a tool to study luminosity evolution. Several studies of a related nature are being carried out by other groups. A specific experiment to test a 'no-evolution' hypothesis is presented here. We have used the AUTOFIB multifibre spectro-graph on the 4-metre Anglo-Australian Telescope (AAT) and the Rutgers Fabry-Perot imager on the Cerro Tolalo lnteramerican Observatory (CTIO) 4-metre tele-scope to measure the internal kinematics of a representative sample of faint blue field galaxies in the red-shift range z = 0.15-0.4. The emission line profiles of [OII] and [OIII] in a typical sample galaxy are significantly broader than the instrumental resolution (100-120 km $s^{-l}$), and it is possible to make a reliable de-termination of the linewidth. Detailed and realistic simulations based on the properties of nearby, low-luminosity spirals are used to convert the measured linewidth into an estimate of the characteristic rotation speed, making statistical corrections for the effects of inclination, non-uniform distribution of ionized gas, rotation curve shape, finite fibre aperture, etc.. The (corrected) mean characteristic rotation speed for our distant galaxy sample is compared to the mean rotation speed of local galaxies of comparable blue luminosity and colour. The typical galaxy in our distant sample has a B-band luminosity of about 0.25 L$\ast$ and a colour that corresponds to the Sb-Sd/Im range of Hub-ble types. Details of the AUTOFIB fibre spectroscopic study are described by Rix et al. (1996). Follow-up deep near infrared imaging with the 10-metre Keck tele-scope+ NIRC combination and high angular resolution imaging with the Hubble Space Telescope's WFPC2 are being used to determine the structural and orientation parameters of galaxies on an individual basis. This information is being combined with the spatially resolved CTIO Fabry-Perot data to study the internal kinematics of distant galaxies (Ing et al. 1996). The two main questions addressed by these (preliminary studies) are: 1. Do galaxies of a given luminosity and colour have the same characteristic rotation speed in the distant and local Universe? The distant galaxies in our AUTOFIB sample have a mean characteristic rotation speed of $\~$70 km $s^{-l}$ after correction for measurement bias (Fig. 1); this is inconsistent with the characteristic rotation speed of local galaxies of comparable photometric proper-ties (105 km $s^{-l}$) at the > $99\%$ significance level (Fig. 2). A straightforward explanation for this discrepancy is that faint blue galaxies were about 1-1.5 mag brighter (in the B band) at z $\~$ 0.25 than their present-day counterparts. 2. What is the nature of the internal kinematics of faint field galaxies? The linewidths of these faint galaxies appear to be dominated by the global disk rotation. The larger galaxies in our sample are about 2"-.5" in diameter so one can get direct insight into the nature of their internal velocity field from the $\~$ I" seeing CTIO Fabry-Perot data. A montage of Fabry-Perot data is shown in Fig. 3. The linewidths are too large (by. $5\sigma$) to be caused by turbulence in giant HII regions.

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The Injury and its Related Factors in the Elderly Using the Data of 2008 Community Health Survey (2008 지역사회 건강조사 자료를 이용한 노인의 손상 관련요인)

  • Kwon, Yu-Jin;Ryu, So-Yeon;Shin, Seung-Ok;Chun, In-Ae;Park, Moon-Sook;Shim, Jae-Soon
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2014
  • Objective: The objectives were to estimate the rate of the injury in the elderly over the past year and to identify factors related to injury in the elderly in South Korea. Method: Using data from the 2008 Community Health Survey, 43,049 elderly persons, aged 65 years and older, were selected as study subjects. Their experience of injury during the past year and other variables, including socio-demographic factors, health-related factors, and diagnosed chronic diseases, were used. The chi-squared test and multiple logistic regression analysis with weighted analysis were conducted and statistical significance was set at p<0.05. Result: The rate of injury in the elderly during the past year was 5.1%. The most common types of the injury were falling/slipping down and traffic accidents. Factors related to injury in the elderly were living alone, current drinking, depression, poor self-rated health, stroke, and osteoporosis. Living alone (odds ratio 1.23, 95% CI: 1.05-1.45), current drinkers (OR 1.19, 95% CI: 1.05-1.35), poor self-rated health (OR 1.72, 95% CI: 1.43-2.08), depression (OR 1.23, 95% CI: 1.17-1.68), and history of stroke (OR 1.40, 95% CI: 1.17-1.68), and history of osteoporosis (OR 1.45, 95% CI: 1.26-1.66) were related to an increased risk of injury. Conclusions: Intervention programs that consider the risk factors related to injury should be developed and implemented to decrease and prevent injuries in the elderly.

Quality Evaluation and Optimization of Storage Temperature with Eight Cultivars of Kimchi Cabbage Produced in Summer at Highland Areas (고랭지 여름배추 품종간 품질 비교 및 저장온도 최적화)

  • Eum, Hyang Lan;Kim, Byung-Sup;Yang, Yong Joon;Hong, Sae Jin
    • Horticultural Science & Technology
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.211-218
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    • 2013
  • This study was conducted to investigate the quality characteristics of eight Kimchi cabbage cultivars and the effect of cold storage on the quality of two kinds of cabbage cultivars, such as 'CR-Nongshim', and 'Ryouckgwang'. Early planted and harvested cultivars at July showed that fresh weight was lower than late harvested cultivars at September, because early harvesting time of July was heavy rainy season at highlands of Gangwon province. The firmness was more than 10 N for all cultivars and 'Cheongock', 'Sanjanggoon', and 'Ryouckgwang' cultivars had high value of firmness among them. No differences among the cultivars were found in appearance, freshness, and texture evaluations at harvest. Sweetness and bitterness had statistical differences and showed high value in 'Ryouckgwang' and in 'CR-Nongshim' and 'Sooho'. Two Kimchi cabbage cultivars such as 'CR-Nongshim' and 'Ryouckgwang' were stored at $0^{\circ}C$, $2^{\circ}C$, $5^{\circ}C$, and room temperature ($25^{\circ}C$) with more than 90% RH. Significant difference was found in weight loss during room and low temperature storage. In general, weight loss of the Kimchi cabbages at room temperature was significantly increased by 15% within 3 days, whereas it was delayed at low temperature until 3 weeks on all Kimchi cabbage cultivars. Firmness of 'CR-Nongshim' was higher than 'Ryouckgwang' but there was no difference within low storage temperatures. Appearance among the sensory factors was a critical indicator to estimate storage periods. On the point of appearance, storage period at $0^{\circ}C$ was 1 week and $2^{\circ}C$ and $5^{\circ}C$ was 3 weeks and 1 week in 'CR-Nongshim' cultivar, respectively. The storage period of 'Ryouckgwang' cultivar was 2 weeks, 4 weeks, and 2 weeks, respectively. Conclusively, storage at $2^{\circ}C$ with more than 90% RH was recommended as optimum temperature to maintain quality in both cultivars.

Analysis of the Location Environment of the Sub-alpine Coniferous Forest in National Parks Using GIS - Focusing on Abies koreana - (GIS를 활용한 국립공원 아고산대 침엽수림의 입지환경 분석 - 구상나무를 대상으로 -)

  • Kim, Tae-Geun;Oh, Jang-Geun
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.236-243
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    • 2016
  • It was a case study to use as a basic data for efficient the preservation and management of subalpine coniferous forest in national parks. It is based on inhabitation condition of 210 individuals of Abies koreana Wilson that was found through local investigation in the sub-alpine zone of Jirisan National Park and Songnisan National Park. It analyzed the effect of the geographical location and topographical features, which are the basics of location environment, on the growth of A. koreana. The variables related to the growth of A. koreana are tree height and diameter at breast height. Topographical features include geographical longitude, altitude above sea level, slope of the mountains, aspect that describes the direction in which a slope faces and topographical wetness index. Topographical features were extracted through GIS spatial analysis. It used canonical correlation analysis to estimate whether the two variables groups have related to each other and how much they are related, if any, and estimated the effect of the geographical and topographical features on the growth structure of A. koreana using multiple regression analysis. The tree height and diameter at breast height that represent the growth structure of A. koreana show greater relation to geographical latitude distribution than topographical feature and the geographical and topographical factors show greater relation to diameter at breast height than tree height. The growth structure's variable and geographical and topographical variable of A. koreana have meaningful relation and the result shows that geographical and topographical variables explain 18.1% of the growth structure. The variables that affect the diameter at breast height of A. koreana are geographical latitude, topographical wetness index, aspect and altitude, which are put in order of statistical significance. The higher the latitude is, the smaller the diameter at breast height. Depending on the topographical feature, it becomes bigger. The variable that affects the tree height is topographical wetness index, which was the only meaningful variable. Overall, the tree height and diameter at breast height that are related to the growth structure of A. koreana are affected by geographical and topographical feature. It showed that the geographical feature affected it the most. Especially the effect of water among the topographical features is expected to be bigger than the other topographical factors. Based on the result, it is expected that geographical and topographical feature is an important factor for the growth structure of A. koreana. Even though it considered only the geographical and topographical features and used spatial analysis data produced by GIS, the research results will be useful for investigating and researching the growth environment of coniferous forest inhabiting in sub-alpine zone of national parks and are expected to be used as basic data for establishing measures to efficiently manage and preserve evergreen needleaf tree such as A. koreana.